Following the legalisation of betting shops in the UK, the first political market to capture public attention was the 1963 contest to become the next Conservative Leader. The favourite Rab Butler was turned over by Alex Douglas-Home – starting a famous run of betting upsets which would become part of political folklore. In short, the early favourite never wins.
We are on the verge of the latest, exceptionally wide-open renewal. Prime Minister Theresa May was matched at odds-on to leave office in 2018 and is trading at $1.60 to go before the end of 2019. Even if surviving, she has already committed to leave before the next scheduled general election in 2022.