BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR
25 Sep 2023
BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR
2023 BROWNLOW MEDAL PREVIEW
2023 is going to be one of the most intriguing Brownlow medal nights in history, with bookies favourite- Nick Daicos expected to burst out of the blocks to an early lead and hold on for dear life- not being predicted to poll in the final 6 rounds due to form and injury. Western Bulldogs skipper- Marcus Bontempelli is the main contender to chase down the second year- Magpie in what could be one of the nerve-racking final rounds that may rival the dramatic 2022 count.
Proven vote getters and top-10 stalwarts Christian Petracca and Lachie Neale will poll strongly once again, as will breakout superstars and newly christened All-Australians Zak Butters, Errol Gulden and Caleb Serong.
Best Bets
BEST BET
BACK: Quinella – Marcus Bontempelli, Nick Daicos
Our Predictor has successfully picked 7 of the last 8 Brownlow Medal winners, with last seasons Patrick Cripps upset ending a 7-year streak by a single vote. The upside is the Quinella hit for the fourth straight season.
With another close Brownlow count and just a single predicted vote separating first and second, the smart play here is to back the Quinella.
Nick Daicos had one of the more extraordinary individual seasons considering his age and experience- being the raging Brownlow favourite going into his 45th career game at 20 years of age before injury hit. We haven’t seen a player win the Brownlow before their 21st birthday since Chris Judd in 2004 in his 3rd season- Daicos is in his 2nd season!
Between Round 1-20- before succumbing to injury mid-game in Round 21- Daicos led the league for disposals (32.6 per game) and effective disposals (24.6), and kicked 17 goals across those 19 matches.
The Brownlow favourite is predicted to poll 30 votes across 13 matches, having picked up 29+ disposals in all of these games with Collingwood winning 12 of these games.
In recent years all Brownlow Medallists have had a similar game style and stats profile, being high contested possession and clearance winners who hit the scoreboard.
In 10 of the last 11 seasons, the Brownlow Medal winner has ranked in the top-10 for average contested possessions and clearances as well as kicking 10+ goals and ranking in the top-10 in the AFLCA voting.
Only 1 player ticks all of these boxes in season 2023, Marcus Bontempelli- ranking 4th for contested possessions, 5th for clearances, kicking 19 goals and placing 2nd in the AFLCA Player of the Year.
Bontempelli has 29 predicted votes, polling in 13 matches and looms as the only threat to Daicos given his polling history.
Most 3 Vote Matches
BACK: Marcus Bontempelli
This market is predicted to be a tightly contested battle between the top 2 Brownlow favourites- Marcus Bontempelli and Nick Daicos. However, when it comes to polling maximum Brownlow votes, there’s none better than the Bont.
Marcus Bontempelli has been a proven vote getter for a number of years now, with 4 x top-10 finishes in the Brownlow in his career, including a second-place result in 2021. Bontempelli had the most games as Best on Ground in 2021 and looks destined to claim this title once again.
This seasons’ Player’s Association MVP has 8 matches this season where the Brownlow Predictor has him expected to poll either 2.5 or 3 votes, the equal most with Nick Daicos.
Players that receive top votes in matches from the AFL Coaches Association have a very strong correlation with polling maximum Brownlow votes. Bontempelli was votes by the coaches as best or equal best on ground in 9 matches this season- 1 match clear of Port Adelaide star Zak Butters.
| Games with the Most or Equal Most AFLCA Votes | Games with 2.5 + 3 predicted Brownlow Votes | |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 9 | 8 |
| Nick Daicos | 7 | 8 |
| Zak Butters | 8 | 5 |
| Lachie Neale | 6 | 7 |
| Christian Petracca | 5 | 6 |
The Brownlow Medal Predictor has accurately picked the player with the most 3 vote games in each of the last 4 seasons!
Leader After Round 5
BACK: Nick Daicos
Nick Daicos started his second season of AFL football like a house on fire!
In the opening 5 matches- where Collingwood started the season with 4 wins and 1 loss- Daicos averaged a league high 36 disposals per game, was the leading disposal getter in 4 games and never dipped below 32 disposals in a game.
At Round 5, Daicos led the Coaches Association Player of the Year- being the only player to poll in every- and firmed as the outright favourite to win the Brownlow.
Notable early games from the All-Australian Magpie came in Round 2 (Game high- 32 disposals, 2 goals, 9 AFLCA votes), Round 4 (Game high- 38 disposals, 2 goals) and Round 5 (Career high- 42 disposals, 8 inside 50s, 10 AFLCA votes).
The Brownlow Medal predictor has Daicos polling in each of the first 5 matches, securing 11 votes- 3-votes clear of ball magnet- Darcy Parish and the sharp-shooting Jeremy Cameron.
| Most Predicted Votes at Round 5, 2023 | |
| Nick Daicos | 11 |
| Darcy Parish | 8 |
| Jeremy Cameron | 8 |
| Chad Warner | 7.5 |
| Clayton Oliver | 7.5 |
The Brownlow Medal predictor has correctly picked 2 of the last 3 leaders at Round 5. In 2021, the predictor was 0.5 votes off correctly picking Ollie Wines.
Most Votes Last 8 Rounds
BACK: Errol Gulden
Sydney stormed home in the final 8 matches to secure an unlikely finals berth- winning 6 straight matches during this time- and silky left-footer Errol Gulden was at the forefront of these wins.
Between Round 17-24, Gulden had 30+ disposals in 6 matches, with the Brownlow Medal Predictor expecting him to poll in all 6 of these matches.
The Swans fan favourite spent more time in centre bounces in the latter half of the season, leading to some memorable individual performances. The All-Australian is the favourite for best on ground honours in Round 20 (37 disposals, 1 goal, 9 AFLCA votes), Round 21 (32 disposals, 2 goals and Brett Kirk Medal) and Round 24 (42 disposals, 2 goals, 10 AFLCA votes).
Gulden has a healthy lead of 3 predicted votes in this period over Bulldogs skipper Marcus Bontempelli and back-to-back Coleman Medallist Charlie Curnow.
| Predicted Votes R17-24 | |
| Errol Gulden | 13 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 10 |
| Charlie Curnow | 10 |
| Stephen Conilgio | 9 |
Top 10 Finish
BACK: Connor Rozee
Connor Rozee was one of the disappointments in last years count according to some punters, with the breakout star predicted by many to have 20+ votes and therefore easily place in the top-10- he ended up polling just 14 votes.
Our Brownlow Predictor had him outside the top-10 on 17.5 votes last season, factoring in his previous polling history.
Rozee would have gained plenty more umpire attention this season, with the media placing him in the spotlight on the back of winning the Port Adelaide Best and Fairest and All-Australian honours in 2022.
His form improved on last year, averaging career high disposals, kicks, tackles, inside 50s, clearances and goals, leading to another All-Australian jacket in 2023!
This boost in numbers as well as enhanced reputation means his predicted 21.5 votes- (predicted to place equal 8th) will be more achievable this season and see him a strong chance to place in the top-10 and at greater value than other players in this market- could see him steal some votes off Zak Butters!
The Brownlow Medal is the AFL’s most prestigious individual prize. The medal, known formally as the Charles Brownlow Trophy, was first presented in 1924, in honour of the former Geelong player and club and league administrator. The Brownlow medallist is recognised as the League’s fairest and best player, as judged by the umpires.
In recent years, the Brownlow Medal count has attracted significant interest as a major event on footy’s social calendar, while also continuing to draw massive patronage from bettors. With wagering interest in the Brownlow skyrocketing, punters are increasingly looking for accurate and updated information and insights to help shape their Brownlow tipping strategies.
Betfair’s unique Brownlow Medal predictor provides expert analysis for each of the 198 AFL home-and-away matches played during the 2022 season including a list of players it predicts will likely have earned the umpires’ votes.
Under the current Brownlow Medal voting system, the three field umpires confer after each game and award six votes to the three players considered the fairest and best, on a 3-2-1 basis. However, under the innovative system that underpins Betfair’s AFL Brownlow predictor, more than three players per match can be identified as predicted vote-winners, ‘earning’ a minimum of 0.5 votes and a maximum of 3 from a six-tier voting scale. Betfair’s data scientists and betting analysts believe this broader vote allocation system better captures more players’ valuable or outstanding performances while simultaneously lessening the impact of the narrow 3-2-1 system than can, by its nature, ignore impactful players who might not necessarily have caught the umpires’ attention, particularly in games dominated by one or two individuals.
After each round, a leaderboard showing how many votes Betfair’s Brownlow predictor tips players to receive is updated, with individual Brownlow Medal market odds on the Betfair Exchange adjusted accordingly. This ‘live’ feature enables punters to stay updated with predicted player movement up and down the leaderboard, providing them with ample opportunity to adjust their Brownlow wagering strategies throughout the course of the AFL season.
Under contemporary Brownlow rules, multiple winners are declared when two or more players finish with the same number of votes. In 2003, for example, Adelaide’s Mark Ricciuto, Collingwood’s Nathan Buckley and Sydney’s Adam Goodes each polled 22 votes and were declared Brownlow medallists. This element of the award broadens punters’ options and allows for more intricate wagering strategies, particularly when using Betfair’s AFL Brownlow predictor as a guide. It’s also worth noting that although players who have been suspended for on-field indiscretions during a season can still receive votes for their performances, they are ineligible to win that year’s Brownlow Medal.
Importantly, as part of Betfair’s approach of putting bettors first by giving them multiple options to capitalise on their investments, punters can choose to back or lay any player as part of their Brownlow wagering considerations.
As Australia’s largest betting exchange, Betfair continues to broaden its wagering options and expand the cutting-edge information, expert analysis and data it offers punters who are keen to extract maximum value when investing. To take advantage of tools including the innovative Brownlow Medal predictor, sign up to Betfair today and start realising the benefits.
