HORSE RACING PREDICTIONS MODEL
What is the ratings model?
The Ratings Model provides rated prices for every runner at selected thoroughbred meetings across Australia, offering data driven horse racing predictions.
Using Punting Form data, the model is able to calculate its prediction of each runner’s percentage chance of winning that race, before then converting it to what it believes that runner’s most accurate odds should be, a.k.a. that runner’s rated price.
Using these rated prices, Betfair customers can then compare the model’s price to that of the price on offer on the Exchange to see which horses the horse racing predictor model believes is good and bad value.
The model can help you identify value, outlining the value percentage of each runner in the race where applicable.
How do I read the ratings?
Ratings are numerical measures that are an expected rating for each horse for the upcoming meeting. Prices are formulated by multiple factors including past performance, upcoming race conditions, trainer and jockey statistics and a range of other variables considered by our Data Scientists.
NB: The Data Scientists’ best-profiled runner is highlighted in grey. The ‘Value’ % is calculated looking at the difference in win probability based on the Analysts rated price v current Exchange market price.
Ie. 20% win rated chance vs 12.5% win chance in the market is a 7.5% difference in winning chance. This is calculated by: (1 / model odds) – (1 / price).