LAY BACK WITH BETFAIR: IN-PLAY BETTING & TRADING

Shane Ciurleo: It [definitely] is, since I’ve been using Betfair it’s introduced me to more markets [and] it’s great because there are so many more opportunities in sport and there’s so much good information out there. You only have to go to the Betfair Hub to find some great data and analysis on Sport – golf in particular is one – there’s so much information out there, whether it be golf or AFL or what-have-you. I’m betting more and more into those markets, they’re good liquid markets and there’s plenty of information out there where you can find an edge and make a small earn.

Shane Ciurleo: If we just talk about specific strategies, apprentice Jockey’s on horses that don’t have early speed that are drawn out wide, I’m against them from a betting proposition early-on, and then In-Play [I’m] just mindful of where they could end up.

Like, if they’re on a leader but you’re not quite sure whether they’re experienced enough to push forward from the gate, or something like that, and then if it does find the front, or you can see it working it’s way to the front, then you can be on it. There [are] certain races where my wagering decisions are made in-run and that’s just from doing the form, doing the data [and] working out my betting races. Then the races I haven’t bet into, because I’m not quite sure on how the map lands, so if this horse does end up going forward from the gate, I want to be on it in-play. So, I do a price based on the map, so if this horse leads, it’s a $5 chance, and then in-run I’m happy to take anything around $6.

Shane Ciurleo: Absolutely! There are a few different ways of doing it [and] understanding your bank and how much you’re prepared to risk each race is really important.

There’s been plenty of examples, and you see it on social media a bit, the race caller might be calling a horse home and you’re watching it at home and listening to it on the radio, and you’re taking a $1.01 to try and pinch $10 and they get rolled. That happens, so you just got to be mindful of the differences there and think about what you’re betting against. You’ve taken those variables and accounted for them, [so] have a clear understanding of how much you want to lose per race, because you can get carried away betting in-run.

Obviously if you’ve got a third-party software program, you’re just clicking away and every click is $100 or $10, you can get a bit excited trying to get matched. So, understanding some liabilities around per-race, and then going in with a game-plane, I find for me works. I know there’s some people that bet blind off the colours and just see which one they think’s going to win. But for me, I go in with a game-plan of, this is the map, this is the horse that I want to back if it gets into this spot, or this is the horse I want to lay if it doesn’t find that spot. That’s the key for me.

Shane Ciurleo: Yeah, and I think a pool of horses as well, like a jurisdiction. I wouldn’t bet race-to-race around Australia betting in-run, because I’d be completely guessing. But if I focus on my pool of horses that I focus on for this sort of betting [that’s] in South-East Queensland, for example, [I’ve] got a bit better of an idea of jockeys and horses, and not just jockeys of the horses you want to back, but jockeys of the other horses in the race, which is key.

You might have two, or three on speed horses, all with go forward young apprentices on, so 9 times out of the 10 they’re going to over do it. So, you don’t want to be on one of those horses that’s going to get in that speed battle and can’t win. In that instance Tom, you’re looking at a race where you’re saying, “Okay, these three are go forward horses. If they’re chopping at each other in the first furlong, I’m happy to Lay all three.” Understanding the race and going in with a plan, rather than just turning on the race and going, “Jeez that green coloured one, what number’s he? Number 6. Yeah looks the winner.” That’s where you’ve got to have an understanding of the pool of horses, is the best place to start. If you’re using the platform (Betfair) you should introduce that as part of your betting routine or repertoire at the very least.

For those races where you don’t see a clear edge or a clear bet, just identify one horse that you want to back if it lands in a particular spot or one horse you want to lay in a particular spot, wind the stakes back and just start small and learn.

Shane Ciurleo: The only final tip I can really give is, get on the Betfair platform and have a look at not just the exchange itself on the events, [but] do some research on the Hub and get the info. There’s plenty of other guys on the Hub that provide information that are a lot smarter than me, that is good information you can use and take it to the exchange, and you can learn a bit about Backing and Laying, and start small, and chip away, and build a bank as you go along.