TRB Spring Carnival: Horse Racing Tips

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Current Results

Total Units Staked: 13.30

Total Units Returned: 14.45

ROI: 8.63%

4:00 Geelong Race 7 2400m   Gp3 HCP – The Geelong Cup

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail in the true position.

Fine sunny weather is forecast for Wednesday with a top of 27c. There’s a good chance the track will be a Good 3 by race time.

Similar past meetings on 17/4/19 and 16/3/19 suggest the track will race evenly. We should see winners from forward and back. I expect jockeys to stick to ground from the fence to six horses off.

Speed and Tactics

Haky set a fast speed in front at his first Australia start in the G2 Herbert Power won by The Chosen One of 12th October.

He may not go as fast here, but it’s reasonable to expect he’ll set another solid pace.

That should see the field spread out early and provide plenty of opportunity for Prince Of Arran (11) to work across and find a nice position.

Dal Harrid (5) looks to get an ideal run just off the lead. Steel Prince (8) should find a suitable position not too far back.

Early Pace Rating: Solid

Late Pace Rating: Below Average

Best Suited: 2L to 5L off the lead.

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Based on exposed form & ratings a figure of at least 101 at the weights to be carried will be needed to be a winning chance in this race. I can see anything less possibly being good enough, and it’s more likely a rating of 102-103 will actually be needed to win.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order.

3. Prince of Arran 101-103.5. Assessed $2.90.

He loves racing in Australia. His first up effort in a fast run G2 Herbert Power returned a 103 rating, which is extremely hard to beat here. His three runs in Australia last year were also all in the 103 to 103.5 range. That’s a very strong profile for this race, especially with the prospect of working across for a nice run just off the lead. He’s clearly the horse to beat.

8. Steel Prince 99-102.5. Assessed $6.50.

This is a catch up run after he was scratched just before the jump of the Herbert Power. He comes off a 98.5 over 2000m last start and is clearly looking for the step up to 2400m, which gives him good prospects to push to 100+. His career peak of 102.6 is super competitive, but still below the consistent level Prince of Arran has established.

11. Supernova 98-102. Assessed $7.50.

He’s a lightly raced staying prospect that ran a new 101 peak last start when he stepped up to the 2500m of the Bart Comings, won by Surprise Baby. That’s a very competitive base and he definitely has the prospect to run new peaks. The risk he presents is that he’ll be giving all of the other chances in this race a head start in the run.

10. True Self 98-102. Assessed $8.00.

An overseas 7YO mare having her first Australian start. She ran a career peak 101 last start, which shows she has the talent to measure up. There’s a fair bit of guess work involved in assessing how they’ll run first up here though. Some really thrive and can run new peaks, while others flop. There’s some stiff opposition in this race so while I respect that she brings a decent rating, I do prefer others.

7. Red Galileo 97-102. Assessed $11.00.

A Godolphin overseas galloper having his first start here. He actually comes in career best form with two 100 ratings in his last three starts, with the failure two starts ago over 3269m hard to hold against him in this. His ratings are competitive, but others are better and he’s a 9YO with a record of just 3 wins from 41 starts. I have to risk him a little.

5. Dal Harraild 96-101. Assessed $15.00.

He’s a potential big improver in the race. He only ran 96.2 last start in The Bart Cummings, but will be fitter and did put together three consecutive ratings last Spring of 101.7, 103.2 and 101.6. He definitely has the talent to measure up and looks to get an ideal run with a top jockey (Zahra) on board.

2. Neufbosc 96-99. Assessed $26.00.

His run in the G1 Metropolitan last start was no guide at all and worth overlooking. Prior to that he ran a 98 rating over 2000m and will appreciate this distance more. He’s another that could show sudden improvement in this race.

6. Grey Lion 92-100. Assessed $34.00.

Ran a solid 100.2 two starts ago, but was then poor last start in the Metropolitan without an obvious excuse. A dry track might help him bounce back to form and he could be competitive, but has to be a longshot.

4. Red Cardinal 93-99. Assessed $51.00.

Ran okay first up with 96.6 and could improve, but his best in Australia so far is 99.6, which isn’t good enough. He needs a big new peak just to get in the finish.

9. Haky 90-98. Assessed $81.00.

Went fast in his first Australian run and was beaten 11.8 lengths. I couldn’t possibly have him off that effort.

1. Muntahaa 85-96. Assessed $501.00.

Has done nothing in five runs since arriving in Australia.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Prince of Arran – Bet to WIN (stake 1.5% of your total bank.)

5:15 Caulfield Race 9 2400m Gp1 HCP – The Caulfield Cup

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail in the true position. There is a chance of some showers on Saturday, but they’re very unlikely to be anything that will impact the track. With a cool day of just 16c forecast, the track should race in the Good 4 range.

Last week’s meeting 12/10 along with the prior on 31/8 saw the track race very evenly. I expect a good mix of winners from forward and back, with a wide spread of runners across an even home straight.

Speed and Tactics

There looks likely to be good pressure early in the race as runners attempt to find positions and a few drawn wide likely to press forward. Crown Prosecutor (2), Wolfe (5) and Angel of Truth (14) looks the prominent pace runners with the likes of Hartnell (17), Rostropovich (18) and Finche (19) candidates to work forward.

It will slow up in the middle stages, but in such a big field, runs should start not much later than the 1000m to 800m mark, which will make it a genuine staying test.

Early Pace Rating: Above Average to Solid

Late Pace Rating: Below Average to Moderate

Best Suited: 2L to 6L off the lead.

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Based on exposed form & ratings a figure of at least 105.5 at the weights to be carried will be needed to be in the finish of this race.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order.

6. Finche 103.5-106.5. Assessed $6.00.

He’s come back in superb order this preparation with ratings of 105.1 and 105.4 in his last two, which are right on the cusp of the level needed to be in the finish of this. He’s still building into his preparation towards the Melbourne Cup and shows all the signs of a horse that we know will appreciate the step up to 2400m.

It’s more than reasonable to expect some further rating improvement in this race. I’m not too concerned about the barrier. In 2018 this horse worked forward from barrier 15 in the 3200m Melbourne Cup and fought on particularly well to run 3rd at just his 10th race start. There’s nothing like the same straight run to find a position in this race, but it’s also only 2400m and he’s a genuine stayer!

What I am concerned about is that a 2400m last start lead up run has been an advantage in this race. Since 2005 just 6 from 166 runners have won with a lead up run at less than 2400m, for a -43% betting return. In contrast, 8 of 80 have won with a 2400m or further lead up and +103% betting return. It’s small sample stuff, but hard to ignore.

In the case of Finche, his last start 2000m was a slowly run Turnbull Stakes, hardly ideal for a genuinely run 2400m. The stats are one thing, but I am then left wondering how many of those 166 without a 2400m lead up came into the Caulfield Cup with the form & rating credentials of Finche, with absolutely no doubt that they prefer the 2400m trip?

That leaves me torn a little between his obvious form & talent merit for this race and a questionable lead up platform? I’m erring on the side of respecting his talent, so there’s no doubt he’s a top chance.

7. Gold Mount 102.5-106. Assessed $8.50.

He looks massive value in the race to me at better than $20 in the market. Since transferring back from Hong Kong to the UK under the care of Ian Williams he’s run two strong ratings – a 106.6 first up when he easily won a Listed race at York over 2787m by 2.3L with big margins back through the field and then a 103.6 second up when just beaten by Red Verdon at G3 level over the same 2787m trip.

That 106.6 first up is capable of winning this race so there’s no query about him off a short break here and anything in the 103.6 to 106.6 range is very competitive. The other thing I like is that from barrier 4 he has enough tactical speed to hold a reasonable position and not get too far back in the field.

That combined with his strong proven staying talent looks the profile of a genuine chance in the race, not a longshot. It’s always speculative forecasting how the internationals will go at their first run in Australia, but on the evidence available he’s right in this race and big value in the market.

14. Vow And Declare 103-106. Assessed $9.00.

He brings some genuine X-Factor to this race. He comes into this race 2nd up after just one 2000m start in a slowly run Turnbull stakes, which on the surface is a horrible platform for the Caulfield Cup. However, he did run a 103.8 rating which is not far off the minimum 105.5 winning standard and was very strong through the line.

He can only improve with fitness from that run and we know that he’ll be so much better suited up to a genuine run 2400m trip. It’s not hard at all to make a case that he could improve enough to win this race. He’s another where I’m torn between respecting form and talent versus what seems a poor set up. Perhaps he’s so talented that he can break the rules and win? We’ll see.

16. The Chosen One 102-106. Assessed $9.00.

He profiles particularly well here as another longshot that looks among the better chances. With 52kg in this race he ran to a 105.7 last week to win a strongly run 2400m G2 Herbert Power Stakes, which looks the ideal lead up for this race both from a form quality and seasoning perspective.

On the quick back up here, for an elite trainer in Murray Baker who has won this race before, it’s not impossible for The Chosen One to go ahead to another new peak. The tough draw stands out as a negative, but the market typically over-reacts to such factors, so while it’s a risk, the price is more than compensating. He’s a proven stayer with the perfect platform and ratings to be right in the finish. I want him on my side.

3. Mer De Glace 102-105. Assessed $14.00.

Japanese galloper comes off five straight wins with ratings that look up to the standard of this race. He only brings 2000m lead up runs though, which I have to mark a slight negative and has never raced over 2400m in his career so far.

More importantly from my perspective is that he’s almost certain to get a mile back in the field here and will need luck. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he won this race, but there are enough queries there for me to happily say that $8.00 is far too short to get my interest.

11. Constantinople 102-105. Assessed $14.00.

He’s a very talented, lightly raced Northern Hemisphere 3YO that definitely has the talent to win this race. I get the impression though this is very much a tune up for the Melbourne Cup and while he might still be good enough to win this, he’ll probably need the experience and is a horse likely better suited to Flemington.

12. Mr Quickie 102-104. Assessed $15.00.

His first up 1600m run was outstanding but he was $31 that day and ran more like that price when 2nd up as a favourite in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. The pace didn’t suit, but he was entitled to do more. I like the horse as a talent and there’s enough in his ratings to say he could win this race.

However, I’ve pushed him as much as I can reasonably can to get him to $15 and that’s almost 2 x his current market price. He lacks a 2400m lead up and comes off a poor last start run. Fair play if he can win with that profile, but he’s definitely not one for me.

15. Brimham Rocks 100-106. Assessed $15.00.

He’s another longshot that isn’t hopeless in this race. He was plain in the G1 Metropolitan in Sydney last start, but a soft track didn’t suit and he did start equal favourite. The reason he did is that his prior win in the Foundation Cup over 200m at this track was a particularly strong rating performance.

Adjusted to the 52kg he has here, it was a 107 figure that is up to winning this race. That run was no fluke either, we saw last Spring that he ran 107.2 and 106.7 in consecutive runs at 2400m and 2500m when second to Prince of Aran and Yucatan.

That’s strong form that measures right up to this race and with a 107 at just his second last start, I’m giving him plenty of respect. He has plenty of other poor runs that suggest he could also fail, but it equally wouldn’t surprise me if he ran a huge race.

4. Mustajeer 100-104.5. Assessed $17.00.

Now with Kris Lees, he comes off a 104.8 last start win at York, which is just below the winning standard but very competitive. That was over 2787m so he has the right lead up platform and gets Damien Oliver riding. The question is whether he can old or improve off that run or whether he’ll regress more to his previous form, which isn’t good enough. He’s certainly not the worst though.

2. Mirage Dancer 100-104.5. Assessed $23.00.

Former UK galloper now with the Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young stable. He has a good solid grounding for this race from recent overseas runs but his best 104.4 is just below the level needed and most runs are comfortably below. That European staying talent has to be respected so I’m not totally ruling him out, but $23 is as short as I can possibly get him.

18. Wolfe 102-104. Assessed $34.00.

Made his way into the field by winning the Coongy on Wednesday. His last two 102.8 and 103.7 are safely short of the standard needed to win this, so he’ll need a big new peak.

1. Hartnell 100-103.5. Assessed $51.00.

Racing in the 102.3 to 103.3 range this preparation and this race looks more an afterthought than target, give he’s consistently been just off the mark in WFA races.

8. Red Verdon 98-104. Assessed $61.00.

He ran a competitive 104.6 two starts ago, but was poor last start and most of his runs suggest he may be outclassed here.

5. Rostropovich 100-103.5. Assessed $67.00.

He’s a 105 horse on his overseas form so he has the talent to be competitive, but just two fair 1600m and 2000m runs as a lead up is not the platform that looks likely to see him explode in this race to a new peak. Further to that, the Hayes stable typically gets less successful as they get deeper into a preparation, not more.

10. Big Duke 99-103. Assessed $67.00.

Would need a wet track to have any chance of being competitive.

9. Angel Of Truth 96-102. Assessed $126.00.

He ran 105.1 to win the ATC Derby in the Autumn which tagged him as an strong prospect for the Spring, but he’s hasn’t looked the same horse this preparation. He’d also likely need a wet track to do anything here.

17. Qafila 96-101. Assessed $151.00.

With 51.5kg here, her impressive SA Oaks win carries a 106 rating, but that’s a huge spike and the rest of her form is well and truly below the level needed to be competitive here.

13. Crown Prosecutor 97-101.5. Assessed $301.00.

Yet to come close to what’s needed to be competitive. Outclassed.

19. Sound (1st Emergency) 99-102. Assessed $301.00.

1st emergency. Outclassed on Australian form last 12 months.

20. Neufbosc (2nd Emergency) 95-101.5. Assessed $201.00.

2nd emergency. Outclassed.

21. True Self (3rd Emergency) 99-104. Assessed $61.00.

3rd emergency. 6th to Mustajeer last start beaten 3 lengths.

22. Prince Of Arran (4th Emergency) 104-106.5. Assessed $6.00.

It’s a shame he’s 4th emergency and almost certain to miss a run. His narrow 2nd to The Chosen One last Saturday with a nice weight drop for this gives him a 106.5 rating that can win this race. We also saw in three Australian runs last Spring that he was very consistent in the 106 to 107 range.

Betting Strategy

A big open race like this with a stack of chances and plenty of queries is normally not the profile of race I tackle. But there does seem to be a couple of great value chances in the race so I’m happy to invest something small for a potential big collect and no real damage if they don’t win.

 BACK – Gold Mount – Bet to WIN (stake 0.4% of your total bank.)

 BACK – The Chosen One – Bet to WIN (stake 0.4% of your total bank.)

 BACK – Brimham Rocks – Bet to WIN (stake 0.2% of your total bank.)

4:15 Randwick Race 7 1200m Opn WFA – The Everest

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail in the true position.

Fine sunny weather is forecast for Randwick with a top of 28c on Saturday, so it’s likely to be a genuine Good 3 come race time.

History says the track should race very evenly.

Moderate westerly winds are forecast up to 30km/h which are unlikely to have a notable impact, but if it does become stronger, then it will make it tougher for horses trying to loop around the field on the turn and run on down the outside.

If the track also becomes firm (which is very possible), they will be running fast times and particularly fast sectionals – that will give on pace / handy runners a nice scenario to do well across the day.

Speed and Tactics

With Nature Strip drawn wide and sure to press forward, it’s hard to imagine anything but a strong speed. It will be interesting to see how easily he gets across?

I can’t imagine K McEvoy on Redzel or L Currie on Sunlight will be too aggressive out of the barriers. Trying to match it with Nature Strip to make him work seems a big risk to their mounts for minimal return, given Nature Strip is a risk at the 1200m.

They will be more concerned about those behind trying to run them down and mindful of leaving something in the locker for the finish. That could see Nature Strip get across very comfortably, which will only help him to get into the rhythm he needs to maximise his performance.

Early Pace Rating: Solid to Fast

Late Pace Rating: Below Average to Moderate

Best Suited: Lead to 5L off the lead

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Based on exposed form & ratings a figure of at least 105.5 at the weights to be carried will be needed to be somewhere in the finish of this race with the winner likely to rate 106+.

This is an incredibly open and competitive race and it really wouldn’t be a huge surprise if any of them won. It hasn’t been easy to assess and price at all.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order.

12. Yes Yes Yes 103-106. Assessed $6.00.

The 3YO form in Sydney this season has been elite and Yes Yes Yes comes off a last start 105.6 when 2nd in the Golden Rose to Bivouac with outstanding measures on the clock. That’s an extremely competitive level of form for this race and I like that he’s had a fast run at 1400m with a time rating that is up to the best of the others in this race.

He drops back to the Randwick 1200m where he can be strong late. The draw is a little sticky, but Glen Boss is riding full of confidence at the moment and the market typically offers more than fair compensation in its price.

11. Arcadia Queen 103-106. Assessed $6.50.

I’ve never seen her as a sprinter, but that 105.5 first up win over 1300m is hard to ignore. She did get all the favours that day, but will also be fitter for this target race. If she holds a position on the outside of Pierata in the run, she could end up an ideal trip and the ability to move into clear space and wind up at the right time. The query is whether the 1200m is simply too short against this level.

1. Santa Ana Lane 103-107. Assessed $7.00.

He has an enormous record of improving 2nd up to peak ratings. He did it in the Autumn to win the TJ Smith with a world class 110.6 rating and also last Spring when he ran 106.5 to win the Premier Stakes. Both of those races were at this track and distance so he brings the strongest rating profile of any runner.

He was good enough first up at Flemington to suggest he’s on track to follow a similar pattern here, but he’ll be well back on the inside of runners here and need some luck to get clear running. When horses come back from an overseas trip, I also like to see evidence that they’ve returned to their best ratings, which isn’t the case here. Santa Ana Lane hasn’t had the chance to do that yet, but it’s still a very small query in the back of my mind.

10. In Her Time 102.5-105.5. Assessed $9.00.

She looks the big value longshot in this race. The key is that she flies first up. Her last three first-up ratings in Sydney read 105.8, 106.5 and 104.5. That says she has the talent to be right in the finish of this race. Her first up run in the Autumn was not bad either, winning the G1 Lightning Stakes at WFA with a 103 rating. She looks to get an ideal run within 3-4 lengths off the strong speed and is a definite place chance.

2. Pierata 103-105. Assessed $11.00.

He’s run 103.5 and 104.8 this preparation so far and is on track to peak. His best of 107 and 106 could win, but they were both on heavy tracks and even his last start 104.8 next best rating was on a Soft 7. His Good track ratings are a level below his best, so while I respect those peaks, I find it hard to like him on a likely firm deck.

8. Alizee 103-105.5. Assessed $11.00.

A very interesting runner off the freshen up. Her two career-best ratings both came over 1200m last Spring with a 106 and a 105, making her yet another runner with the talent to be in the finish of this race. By all reports the stable are extremely happy with her so it would not surprise to see a big run. She can win.

3. Redzel 102.5-105. Assessed $21.00.

Trying to make it three wins in this race. He ran 104 first up and 102.8 2nd up. I expect he’ll be at his peak for this, but it’s impossible to forecast him beyond the 104-105 range and even if he runs to that, it’s very likely to be short of what’s needed.

7. Ten Sovereigns 101-105. Assessed $21.00.

Coolmore Sprinter from overseas who ran a 106.4 winning the G1 July Cup at Newmarket, so there’s no doubt he has the talent. However, that’s a spike run in his career so far and the rest of his form is well below that. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock if he won, but there has to be plenty of others in front of him.

4. Nature Strip 99-105. Assessed $26.00.

He’s an elite sprinter over the short course 1000m to 1100m, but 1200m is a big risk. What I do like about this race though is that he should get the chance to jump and find his own rhythm early, working to the front to control the race and Tim Clark is in the top three front-running jockeys in Australia.

It looks a nice set up for Nature Strip to really maximise his performance and that could see him improve sharply. It would not surprise me if he was gone at the turn, but equally I can see a scenario where he kicks well clear topping the rise and proves very hard to run down.

5. Trekking 101-104. Assessed $26.00.

His Schillaci win last week rated 103 which is safely short of the winning standard here, but he has good prospects to run a new peak up to 1200m on the quick back up.

6. Classique Legend 102-104. Assessed $26.00.

Two ratings this prep of 102.8 and 101.9 are safely short of the required standard. He can certainly run a new peak here, but it would be a surprise if it was enough to actually win the race.

9. Sunlight 101.5-105. Assessed $26.00.

Her two best ratings of 105.5 and 105.1 are very competitive, but they’ve both come up the Flemington straight so I have a little query if she’s best there. Her best around a turn is 102.5 so even if she can run between that level and her career peak, she still has to rank among the longer price chances.

13. Brutal (1st Emergency) 103-105. Assessed $10.00.

1st emergency. A very promising 104 return first up and he can only be fitter for that run. With scope to improve he can prove more than competitive it called on after a scratching.

14. Home Of The Brave (2nd Emergency) 97-103. Assessed $201.00.

2nd emergency. Outclassed at this level.

15. Champagne Cuddles (3rd Emergency) 98-101. Assessed $351.00.

3rd emergency. Outclassed at this level.

16. Brave Song (4th Emergency) 96-100. Assessed $501.00.

4th emergency. Outclassed at this level.

Betting Strategy

This is such a tricky race and not one I would typically target to get heavily involved in. I do believe in the elite quality of the 3YO Sydney form this season though, so I have to have something on Yes Yes Yes. In Her Time is a terrific longshot, so something small on her on the Exchange should provide a big value price.

 BACK – Yes Yes Yes – Bet to WIN (stake 0.7% of your total bank.)

 BACK – In Her Time – Bet to WIN (stake 0.3% of your total bank.)

5:05pm Caulfield Race 7 1200m 3YO  Gp3 SW – The Blue Sapphire Stakes

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail out 10m. There is a 90% chance of 3mm to 8mm rain falling on the day, which could tip the track just into the Soft 5 range.

Similar meetings held on 17/8 and 11/5 saw the track race evenly. Runners settling midfield and worse have a much better record of success when the rail is out +10m compared to closer to the inside, so it will be possible to win from the back at this meeting.

I also expect jockeys to use plenty of the lanes across the home straight, which will hopefully minimise elements of bad luck and give every horse their chance.

Speed and Tactics

There looks to be good speed drawn across the line here with horses like Anaheed (2), Dubious (7), Lil Kontra (10) and Barcali (13) all likely to press forward.

Early Pace Rating: Above Average to Solid

Late Pace Rating: Below Average to Moderate

Best Suited: Lead to 4L off the lead.

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Based on exposed form and ratings a figure of at least 94 at the weights to be carried will be needed to be somewhere in the finish of this race.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order.

10. Exhilarates 94-96. Assessed $3.60.

She’s flying this prep with three runs rating; 94.6, 94.6 and 95.3, all above the minimum winning standard of 94. That’s the best rating profile heading into this race, she brings the best SP profile and looks ideally suited by the likely even track and above-average speed up front. She could win this race on her current form, but also has an ideal set up to run a new peak.

14. Brooklyn Hustle 92-95.5. Assessed $6.00.

There’s been plenty of wraps on her since she was a 2YO and so far, she’s failed to deliver. However, she did have some excuses first up and still rated 90.8, just over 1.5 lengths below the winning standard. With the benefit of that run and a suitable pace up front, she gets ideal conditions to show something here and improve beyond her 93.9 best as a 2YO. That gives her a genuine winning chance.

1. Dubious 92.5-94. Assessed $8.50.

He improved last start to 92.4, which is short of the winning standard, but he does have a peak of 95.3 as a 2YO and a supporting rating of 93.8. That says he’s good enough to be in the finish of this race, it’s just a question of whether he can improve again on his last start.

4. Condos Express 91-94. Assessed $10.00.

He’s an improving type with ratings of 84.3, 88.8 and 92.3 in his last 3 starts. He needs another new peak to reach the 94+ level that will be needed to win this race, so I have to prefer others, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he took another step.

11. Anaheed 92.5-98. Assessed $10.00.

A tough horse to assess. She actually brings the two best peak ratings into this race with a 98.3 two starts ago over 1100m on Heavy and a 97.8 as a 2YO over 1200m on Soft 5 ground. She went too hard last start over 1400m, which was too far for her and still returned a 92.3 rating, which isn’t far off the mark for this. The uncertainty is that she can be inconsistent. Not the type you can really trust, but the talent is definitely there to win.

12. Lil Kontra 92-94. Assessed $13.00.

Ran 93.8 first up and that was off a final run last prep of 93.9 over 1200m at Morphettville in May, so she’s certainly not out of place in this race. She perhaps doesn’t have the upside of some of the others, but she’s a very good longshot chance to run well.

9. Excess Funds 91.5-93. Assessed $21.00.

Was unluck being held up last start, but adding something back to his 89.8, I still can’t get him beyond his previous best of 91.7, which is safely below a number of the other contenders. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he improved, but I much prefer others.

3. Czarson 90-92.5. Assessed $26.00.

First up here off a sharp jump-out win on 4/10 in good time. He has a peak of 94.8 as a 2YO which says he can be right in the finish, but the best of his other form is in the 90.8 to 92 range. History says a horse is much more likely to run in their established range than repeat a one-off early career spike.

13. Niccovi 90-92.5. Assessed $26.00.

WA visitor off a 92.3 first up at Belmont. That’s not hopeless here, but she does need to run a big new peak.

2. Strasbourg 89-92. Assessed $31.00.

Ran a sound 90 first up in the Danehill with scope to improve, but was then inexplicably poor last start. His 94.8 best when he won the G2 Sires Produce in the Winter means he’s not hopeless, but the best of his other form is around the 90 level.

5. Barcali 89-91. Assessed $67.00.

Comes off a solid 90.2 rating win at MV last start, but needs to make a big improvement to measure up to this.

6. The Executioner 83.5-89. Assessed $101.00.

89.3 two starts ago wasn’t bad, but is well below this standard and was then only fair last start rating 82.8.

8. Viking Warrior 84-89. Assessed $126.00.

First up Ballarat win lacked rating substance and a best of 85.8 so far is a long way below being competitive in this.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Exhilarates – Bet to WIN (stake 1.3% of your total bank.)

4:30pm Caulfield Race 8 1600m 3YO  Gp1 SW – The Caulfield Guineas

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail in the true position. There is no rain forecast

History suggests the track should race evenly, with winners from forward and back. I also expected a broad spread of runners across an even home straight, which will hopefully give all runners a chance.

Speed and Tactics

Roccabascarena (1) should look to hold the lead from the inside and Alligator Blood ((13) should press forward to sit close up on his outside, just like we saw in the Guineas Prelude.

The big question of the race is what does Hugh Bowman do on Dalasan from that very wide draw?

The map suggests there is some opportunity for him to press forward and look for a position, but of course the risk is that if it goes wrong, his chances of winning can be effectively gone before the half way mark.

Does he ride conservatively, especially given the blinkers are on for the first time and back the talent of the horse to get the job done?

We won’t know the answer to that until it happens and Dalasan aside, there doesn’t look to be a great deal of other pressure from out wide. The big field should ensure at least average pace, but unless we see surprise tactics from one or two, it’s hard to imagine they’ll go too fast.

Is Jason Collett unable to restrain Rhaegar again as he crosses from his wide draw and we’ll see another very fast pace? Or will he relax and share a more average tempo with Just Thinkin?

Early Pace Rating: Average to Above Average

Late Pace Rating: Average to Above Average

Best Suited: Lead to 4L off the lead.

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Based on exposed form & ratings a figure of at least 97 at the weights to be carried will be needed to be somewhere in the finish of this race.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order.

2. Dalasan 97-101. Assessed $3.30.

Ever since he raced in the Sires Produce over 1400m as a 2YO, Dalasan has given the impression that he wanted further and could be a very promising horse at 1600m to 2000m. Last start he ran a 97.3 rating when 2nd to Alligator Blood in the Guineas Prelude after laying in up the straight and powering to the line late.

That figure is already at the top of the pile for this race and I’m sure that his potential at at least a couple of lengths better than that. He finally gets to 1600m in this race with blinkers on for the first time, which could just be the thing that helps him switch on and start to realise his full potential. A stronger rider in Hugh Bowman may also help, but I’m no knock at all on Raquel Clark.

The big talking point is the huge risk from the wide barrier. The reality is though that the market drastically over-corrects for the risk of wide draws at Caulfield 1600m. In fact, if you backed every genuine chance up to $10 SP drawn wide in 12+ then you made a handsome profit, without doing any form at all.

They’ve won far more often than the market anticipated, so I’m not going to let that put me off Dalasan in this race.

If he gets caught wide and that costs him is chance of winning then so be it, we move on. However, the talent of the horse and the history of those wide draws being so profitable adds up to a very appealing betting scenario to me, especially at current prices.

3. Alligator Blood 96.5-99. Assessed $4.80.

He’s still unbeaten after five starts and improved to a new peak of 97.3 to win the Guineas Prelude, which could very well end up good enough to win this race. His big asset is tactical speed and the prospect of getting a comfortable run up near the lead. He’s definitely a threat.


4. Kubrick 95-97.5. Assessed $7.00.

The Sydney 3YO form has been elite this Spring, so I don’t read too much into Kubrick being beaten 5L and then 3.5L last start. He improved his rating from 90.8 first up to 95.3 last start over 1400m, which is within one length of the minimum winning standard for this race.

His best run as a 2YO was over 1600m in the G1 JJ Atkins, so he’s turned up to this race with the perfect preparation and platform to run a new peak over the mile. That definitely gives him a genuine winning chance in this race.

The betting risk is that he’s a little one-dimensional in his running style, especially when drawn out, so he’s likely to give away a big head start in this race.

18. Groundswell 84-88. Assessed $12.00.

A full brother to Shoals, he improved significantly in the Guineas Prelude to run a 95.6 rating, which is within 1 length of the minimum winning standard. I felt he lacked some acceleration in that race and made his impression very late, which suggests he’ll appreciate a step up to 1600m.

He has to improve to a new peak to match the better chances here and then likely improve again to win, but that’s not impossible. He’s a strong second tier chance in the race.

7. Subedar 93-95. Assessed $17.00.

He’s racing well in Sydney with 94.4 and 93.3 ratings in this last two. That’s not far off the standard here, it’s just a question of whether he has that scope to improve.

5. Super Seth 89.5-95. Assessed $26.00.

He was strong late when poorly suited from a long way back in the Guineas Prelude, but was entitled to be after doing very little early. His best so far is around the 92.5 rating level, so he needs to make a big improvement.

10. Roccabascerana 90-94. Assessed $31.00.

Racing well this prep and a 94.9 last start is competitive, but it’s hard to see him rating that high with the step up to 1600m, let alone running the new peak needed to win. Can run well, but would be surprised if he can turn the tables out of the Guineas Prelude.

13. Vegas Knight 88-92. Assessed $34.00.

Ran 89.3 LS and could run a new peak in this, but I’d be very surprised if it was enough to get in the finish.

14. Eric the Eel 89-92.5. Assessed $34.00.

Down from QLD, I think he’s a promising middle-distance horse in the making. His first up run over 1350m at Doomben was outstanding and confirmed that he’s come back in the type of shape that could see him fulfil that early potential.

This doesn’t look his race, but I expect him to be hitting the line very strongly and stamping his credentials for a step up to 2000m.

16. Express Pass 89-93. Assessed $34.00.

Had excuses last start and his prior strong closing effort behind Dalasan had some merit. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he improved significantly to run a good race, but I’d be shocked if he won.

1. Yourdeel 88-93. Assessed $51.00.

Just fair first up and then lost the rider LS. He was the NZ 2YO of the year last season and showed top class potential, but I’m yet to see any signs the Hayes team can make him realise that.

12. Conqueror 87-90. Assessed $101.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

15. Soul Patch 85-89. Assessed $101.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

8. Skiddaw 86-89. Assessed $201.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

11. Stand to Attention 84-88. Assessed $251.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

19. Serengeti 84-90. Assessed $251.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

17. Exeter 92-97. Assessed $301.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Dalasan – Bet to WIN (stake 1.3% of your total bank.)

4:50pm Randwick Race 7 2000m 3YO  Gp1 SW – The Spring Champion Stakes

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail out 6m from the 1600m to winning post.

There is a 90% chance of 5mm-10mm of showers on Friday, but the key is a 90% chance of 5mm-20mm rain on Saturday.

The history of the +6m position at Randwick is very fair whether it’s wet or dry, however if rain does fall during the meeting, that’s likely to see them get away from the fence around the turn and into the straight.

That could very much be the case by the time we get to this race.

Speed and Tactics

The speed scenario is very uncertain in this race. When some of these met in the Dulcify Quality, Just Thinking got an easy lead, set a slow pace and kicked to win.

Fast forward to the next encounter in the 1800m Gloaming Stakes, which is the key lead up to this race and the longshot Rhaegar pressed forward and set a very fast pace in front (unintentionally according to Stewards), which made it a strong staying test and saw Shadow Hero win impressively.

Is Jason Collett unable to restrain Rhaegar again as he crosses from his wide draw and we’ll see another very fast pace? Or will he relax and share a more average tempo with Just Thinkin?

Early Pace Rating: Uncertain – could be anywhere between Average and Very Fast

Late Pace Rating: Average to slow

Best Suited: Uncertain

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Based on exposed form & ratings a figure of at least 96 at the weights to be carried will be needed to be somewhere in the finish of this race.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order.

2. Shadow Hero 95-97.5. Assessed $1.90.

He was visually very impressive winning the Gloaming Stakes, showing his staying superiority in a very fast run race, dominating many of the rivals he meets again here. His first up run was also very good in a slowly run Dulcify Quality, hitting the line powerful with very fast late sectionals.

There’s no doubt he’s clearly the horse to beat here, but I’m reluctant to take too short of a price with the chance that the pace could be more even here compared to last start.

1. Castelvecchio 94.5-97. Assessed $3.50.

Ever since he was a 2YO he’s promised to be a top class 3YO when he gets up to 2000m. He did start $5.00 vs $21 for Shadow Hero in the Dulcify first up, which should not be forgotten. His run was perhaps not quite as good as Shadow Hero, but there wasn’t much difference between them.

The choice to drop back 100m in distance to the 1400m Golden Rose was an extremely odd one by the stable – he was never going to be able to sprint with those elite Colts at the trip. However, he still improved his rating to 93.4 and now gets to 2000m.

His 97.5 peak as a 2YO over 1600m with the promise of better as a 3YO says he has more than enough talent to win this race and while the build up prep is perhaps not ideal for this race, I’m giving him plenty of respect.

3. Just Thinkin 91-95.5. Assessed $8.50.

He comfortably beat the top two first up over 1500m in the Dulficy, all be it with the advantage of controlling the race at a slow speed. Last start Rhaegar took control of the race and set a very fast tempo which obviously didn’t suit.

Just Thinkin gets the blinkers on for the first time here and that could very well make him an entirely different horse, not to mention that if Rhaegar settles, the pace could be more suitable.

4. Quick Thinker 91-93.5. Assessed $18.00.

Visually impressive first up, although there wasn’t any great substance in the figures, only returning a 91.5 rating. He then under-performed against the markets expectation LS in the fast run Gloaming, but still rated similar to my expectations with a 90.9. It’s hard to see him turning the tables on Shadow Hero.

5. Rhaegar 83-87. Assessed $81.00.

Has done nothing in two runs so far in Australia. Can’t see him turning that around into a big new peak.

9. Persan 84-89. Assessed $101.00.

Beaten 5 lengths last start by Shadow Here and was $151.

8. Sirmaze 82-86. Assessed $201.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

6. Dummy Run 80-83. Assessed $351.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

10. Battenburg 83-87. Assessed $351.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

7. Sciconic 80-85. Assessed $751.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

11. Rent a Rock 78-82. Assessed $751.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

Betting Strategy

It’s difficult to find a good edge here. It’s not my style to bet against a clear top pick because he’s slight unders and back a 2nd pick that is slight overs.

It also starts to become very skinny if you look at backing both horses.

If you are keen to bet, then the most positive scenario I can see for that to happen is if there is good support for Castelvecchio, then you could follow it in.

On peak ratings, there is very little between he and Shadow Hero. If the market is bullish about Castelvecchio then I could easily mark them much closer together in price.

5:45pm Flemington Race 9 – 1600m 3YOF G2 SW – Edward Manifold Stakes

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail out 9m. While the weather will be cloudy with a top of 22c, there is no rain forecast. I’m expecting the track to race in the Good 4 to Good 3 range.

This rail set up for this year matches the same meeting last year where we came off a prior meeting at 14m, back into the 9m position. That meeting, along with the general history of Flemington +9m suggests a relatively even track, although horses running on 4+ off the fence can tend to be best suited.

Speed and Tactics

For a big field there isn’t a great deal of natural pace here. The entire field tend to be types that settling 2-3 lengths or further back off the lead.

Excused did push forward last start due to a wide draw and settled outside the lead. She was only beaten 0.5 lengths, so it’s reasonable to expect she’ll press forward from barrier 8 here, especially with the lack of pace.

There’s plenty of runners drawn inside that will be looking to hold a reasonable position. (including the favourite Miami Bound).

From out wider we could see Deserved and / or Bonvicini press forward.

The large field size should ensure they don’t go too slowly in this, but it’s hard to imagine anything better than average pace.

Early Pace Rating: Below average to average

Late Pace Rating: Average to above average

Best Suited: Lead to 3 lengths off the lead

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Based on exposed form & ratings a figure of at least 90.5 at the weights to be carried will be needed to be somewhere in the finish of this race.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order.

7. Miami Bound 90.5-92.5. Assessed $2.80.

She’s a progressive filly that improved from an 85.3 first up win, to a 90.8 last start when she won at Bendigo. D Oliver was very soft on her over the final stages in that win and she looks a type that after just 3 starts still has plenty of upside.

With the good 1600m grounding, the prospect of a soft run on the map, D Oliver riding for a flying D O’Brien stable and the prospect of running a new peak here, it’s hard not to like her.

11. Subpoenaed 89-92. Assessed $4.20.

She’s a talented filly that may ultimately reach her potential in the Autumn, but still has good claims in this. Last start at Randwick was a totally forgive run when back and wide. Prior to that she was a very impressive 90.8 rating winner at the Kensington track, coming from a long way back when unsuited by the pace over 1300m with a dominant last 600m.

She ran the best 600m, 400m and 200m rating of the meeting. 1600m looks suitable here, the only box I can’t tick for her is that he’s likely to get a long way back in the run. The track pattern will suit, but it’s never ideal, especially in a race where it doesn’t look like they’ll go hard.

2. Bonvicini 87-90.5. Assessed $13.00.

Her 90.3 rating win in the Morphettville Guineas is a competitive mark, but she did have an ideal soft run in that race and got the right split at the top of the straight. This map and draw is much tougher. Still, she’s at least shown the talent to run up to a mark that can be very competitive in this race.

15. Moonlight Maid 83-88.5. Assessed $23.00.

Not the worst longshot in the race. She was beaten 5 lengths by Miami Bound last start, but was only first up and will appreciate stepping up to 1600m in this. She ran an 88.7 rating as a 2YO over 1600m at this track and wasn’t in the best ground that day.

That rating is only a length below the winning standard for this so the talent is definitely there to run a big race. It’s just a matter of whether she can make that big improvement from first up.

9. Really Discreet 84-89. Assessed $23.00.

Was okay last start at 1400m with an 88.7 rating, which is her best so far. Just not sure about her potential to run a new peak up to 1600m here, off a tough draw.

17. Affair to Remember 84-88. Assessed $26.00.

$7.00 in current markets looks massive unders to me. She was luckless in the 1400m race won by I Am Eloquent at Caulfield on 21/9, but that was a very weak race by stakes class standard. There was no substance on the clock and 2.8 lengths separated the first 12 runners across the line.

Even giving credit for her bad luck, she’s only running 83-84 so far which is 3-4 lengths below the level that will be needed to win this race. Add to that the fact she’s likely to get a long way back in running and she looks a huge risk.

The odd horse can surprise with this profile, but I’m happy to always take them on. Long-term they’re big under-performers.

1. Westport 82-88. Assessed $31.00.

Best of 88.8 in the winter is not too far off the mark here, but has struggled to reach that since her freshen up with a best of 82.6.

4. Oriental Lily 85-88. Assessed $31.00.

Won a weaker race at Cranbourne last start rating 85.7. Could run a new peak, but the jump to figure in the finish of this is significant.

6. Excused 83-87. Assessed $41.00.

Has been battling around the 84 level, which is well short of the standard here. Some chance of a new peak, but can’t see her leaping to 90+.

13. Beauty Bolt 80-86. Assessed $41.00.

85.4 first up and then rated down last start with just 80. Not the profile to run 90+.

18. Selica 82.5-87. Assessed $41.00.

Only 2nd start here off a stylish debut win, but only rated 82.3. Could take another big step, but I’d be surprised if it was enough to measure up.

3. Deserved 83-86. Assessed $51.00.

Best of 83.9 was last start. Needs to make big improvement.

8. Leven Lass 82-86. Assessed $51.00.

Ran a new peak 83.7 last start, but nothing there to say she could make the improvement needed for this.

14. Fascino 83-87. Assessed $51.00.

Won on the synthetic two starts ago, but best rating on turf is 83. Not good enough.

5. Talented 81-86. Assessed $61.00.

Showed talent over the sprint trips as a 2YO, but looks to be battling this prep.

10. Presently 82-86. Assessed $61.00.

83.2 rating since first up was solid, but the step up here looks too great.

12. Exceldia 82-86. Assessed $81.00.

Has won two from two on synthetic in easier, but turf form is not good enough.

16. Song Brocade 80-84. Assessed $151.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

19. Jacin Talee 73-78. Assessed $501.00.

Looks totally outclassed.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Miami Bound – Bet to WIN (stake 1.6% of your total bank.)

4:05pm Rosehill Race 7 – 1400m 3YO SW G1

The Track

There’s a little bit of ‘wait and see’ about the track on Saturday.

The most recent similar meeting on 10/8/19 played evenly, but prior to that we had a meeting on 18/5/19 where “off fence” was clearly best.

Given the run of warm weather and the fact that we are well into Spring now, I’m inclined to go with the more recent reference that says the track will race evenly, but you can never be certain. Monitor the first few races.

Speed and Tactics

There’s a clear lack of early speed and pressure in this race. Yao Dash (4) looks to lead easily and Bivouac (6) looks almost certainly to come across and settle on his outside.

Yes Yes Yes (2) could hold a position in the box seat, but it’s hard to imagine anything else being too positive in the early stages.

Hyeronimus (Yao Dash) and Bowman (Bivouac) look to control the speed here and it’s likely to be below average at best, perhaps slower. They’ll sprint home in some very fast splits, making it difficult for those more than about 2 lengths off the lead.

Early Pace Rating: Moderate to below average

Late Pace Rating: Solid to fast

Best Suited: Lead to 2L off lead

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Based on exposed form & ratings a figure of at least 101 at the weights to be carried will be needed to be somewhere in the finish of this race. It’s a high standard from a very good group of 3YO colts.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order.

2. Bivouac 101-104. Assessed $2.30.

A seriously good colt. He’s the one that has now produced two top class ratings this preparation, with a 100.8 first up at Caulfield and then 103.8 last start when he defeated Yes Yes Yes and Exceedance. Much has been made about his potential to get 1400m, I don’t see a problem with it. Last start, neither Yes Yes Yes or Exceedance made any real ground on Bivouac over the last 50m of the race and in the run-through, 50m past the line Bivouac was even further in front of them.

It’s not like he was stopping and they were charging home, so I don’t see any issue with 1400m, especially one which will be run at a below average speed. With the best lead up rating in the field and the likely position in-run advantage, he has to be clearly on top. If he runs up to his form then one of the others will need to put in an exceptional performance to beat him.

That’s certainly possible, which is why the price assessments only represent a probability of winning, but on the evidence available I think Bivouac is a standout top chance in the race.

4. Yes Yes Yes 99-102. Assessed $5.00.

Ran a big new peak 99.7 when first up behind Bivouac last start. He can only be fitter for that run and looks to get a nice run in the box seat here. How much can he improve? That’s the big question.

On breeding, you’d think he’s a little query at 1400m but the way he raced last start suggests it shouldn’t be a problem. He’s a definite chance.

5. Exceedance 98.5-102. Assessed $5.00.

His 101 rating first up when he defeated Bivouac is very hard to beat in this, but that was 1100m on a Heavy 9 track, which can’t be taken as a reference for 1400m on dry ground.

There has to be more emphasis placed on his last start 98.8 where he ran well, but did have his chance to finish more strongly at the end. Riding tactics will be very interesting here. There looks a good opportunity for him to land one out / one back on the map, but it will require a little bit of intent out of the barrier.

From that position he represents a genuine threat in the race. If he gets further back, then that will make his task much harder.

8. Yao Dash 94.5-97.5. Assessed $14.00.

$6.00 in the market looks far too short. He is lightly raced and promising, but this is a massive step up to elite competition. His 94.5 rating last start is well short of the 101-standard needed to be in the finish of this race.

He needs to improve +2.7 lengths just to get to that mark and that just puts him in the mix with the top three chances. Good horses can make sudden improvement so I’m not suggesting he’s hopeless, but I have to consider him well below the top three. I expect him to be a drifter on the day.

6. Kubrick 93-98. Assessed $31.00.

He was okay first up behind Bivouac and from a better drawn he could have finished closer, but he’s still got five lengths to make up. A nice draw helps his chances but I can’t see him able to give some of these a start and sprint past them. I’ll be looking for him to hit the line strongly with a view to 1600m later in the prep.

1. Castelvecchio 93-98. Assessed $41.00.

He got too far back last start over 1500m, hit a flat spot when the pressure went on and then was strong late. Back to a 1400m race that lack pressure looks totally unsuitable and likely to result in a similar scenario, but this time in a much harder race.

He’s a good horse but lacks the sprinting ability of the other chances here so I would be very surprised if he can give them all a start and finish over the top.

8. Bons Away 98-100. Assessed $21.00.

He’s a solid performer in the 98-100 rating range and is in good form, but his best looks just short of the minimum standard that will be needed to win. He will however get the right run and be suited by the pace, so I can’t rule out a new peak.

7. Dawn Passage 93-97. Assessed $41.00.

His 95.3 first up over 1100m was a very promising start to his preparation, especially given the indicators he was looking for further. However, a last start failure casts a big doubt about him in this race. He would need to bounce back and run a big new career peak.

3. Prince Fawaz 90-95. Assessed $101.00.

Beaten 8 lengths first up behind Bivouac and never looked likely. Even his best from QLD is still well below the required standard.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bivouac – Bet to WIN (stake 2% of your total bank.)

9:30pm Moonee Valley Race 7 – G1 Moir Stakes – 1000m WFA

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 and the rail is in the true position. While there is a 70% chance of 1-4mm showers on Friday, I wouldn’t expect it to affect the track. We should be on a Good 3 – Good 4 surface by race time.

The general history of Moonee Valley when the rail is true and in particular the two most recent meetings under those conditions (7/9/19 and 3/8/19) suggest to me that settling on the rail could be a notable disadvantage on the night.

At those two recent meetings, horses settling on the fence had clearly inferior beaten margins against their starting price compared to other runners. That could be a significant factor in this race.

Speed and Tactics

This race is loaded with natural go forward speed. Nature Strip (1), Eduardo (2), Ball of Muscle (3), Miss Leonidas (7), Sunlight (11) and Assertive Approach (14) all have good early pace. It’s rare you find a race with this much early speed. Regardless of how they sort themselves out, it’s impossible to imagine anything but a fast pace.

That gives the advantage to those runners back off the pace, especially those settling off the fence, if the expected track pattern is in play by race 7.

In the last three years of this race we’ve seen winners come from well back in the field and running on around the outside. That doesn’t guarantee anything this year, but the race does look set up for a similar style of win.

Early Pace Rating: Solid to Fast

Late Pace Rating: Moderate to Slow

Best Suited: 3L to 5L off the lead.

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

This is a tricky race to assess the winning standard because a horse like Nature Strip has clearly superior ratings, but doesn’t look to have the ideal scenario to run-up to that level. It’s a similar story for the next highest rated horse in the field, Sunlight.

All things taken into account, even if the two mentioned above don’t run up to their best, I can’t imagine a scenario where anything less than 101.5 is good enough to win this race, so that’s the bare minimum.

In all likelihood the final winning mark will be a little higher than that.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order.

2. Trekking 100-103.5. Assessed $4.60.

He started to fulfil his potential during the winter, building during his prep to an excellent 103.5 peak when he easily won the G1 1400m Stradbroke Hcp. This is of course a big drop to a 1000m race first up, but he’s trialled in great style, had a terrific gallop on the MV course earlier this week and has no doubt been set to try and produce something like his best.

He looks to be flying. The other appealing aspect of his profile is that he’s one of the few runners with a genuine chance that will settle off the fence and back off the pace, which I feel is where you want to be in high pressure race at this track when the rail is true and fence is likely inferior ground.

There’s some risk he gets too far back, but he looks to map and get the same type of run that recent winners She Will Reign (2017) and Extreme Choice (2016) had. Last year Viddora came from off midfield and looped wide, while the 2nd horse Brave Smash came from a long way back.

The expected conditions of this race look just as, if not more suitable for that style of run than in past years. The on-pace runners will be stopping over the last 150m of this race and Trekking is the one that can be powering home.

5. Nature Strip 97-108. Assessed $4.80.

He’s an extremely difficult horse to assess for this race, reflected by such a wide range in his forecast rating. There is no doubt that he’s an elite sprinting talent. He has peak ratings in the 1000m to 1100m distance range of 108.5, 108, 108, 106.5, 105.5 that can win this race easily.

After being slowly away first up he settled behind the speed, over-raced and under-performed. Prior to that he had trialled exceptionally well though, so I am assuming that he’s come back in top order. A 20-day break for this race seems to be right on the borderline of the 21 days he needs between runs to perform well, so I can’t consider that a negative.

The two big potential problems are the expected pressure up front in this race and barrier 1 on a night where settling on the fence could be a notable disadvantage.

Nature Strip has shown in the past that he can travel at a solid early speed and produce his best, but doing that in a 6,7,8,9 horse fields (which has been the field size of his four best ratings) where he isn’t under as much early pressure and can find his own speed, is totally different to a big field like he faces here, especially one where there are other multiple go forward runners.

The pressure is likely to be on from the start and if Nature Strip is slowly away, as he can be, then McDonald faces the choice of either bustling him early to try and find the lead or taking a sit like he did last start, both of which could see him over-race again.

Even if he can find a comfortable rhythm and not over-race with the faster speed, either on the lead or taking a sit behind others, it’s impossible to see him anywhere but on the fence and the fact that has been a noted disadvantage at the last two similar meetings here makes me nervous about his prospects.

I’m one of Nature Strip’s biggest fans and I’ll be happy to be wrong if he can rebound to his best and win this race, but this looks a far from ideal set up for him.

11. Sunlight 97-102.5. Assessed $7.50.

She rated well down first up, but had plenty of excuses being stuck out wide, which was a notable disadvantage at Randwick with a strong westerly wind. She also tends to improve 2nd up with the benefit of a run, which is in her favour here.

Her two peak ratings of 105 are certainly good enough to win this, but I do note they’ve both come up the Flemington straight. Her best around a bend is 102.5, which is also potentially good enough to win this, the question is whether she has the set up to do that in this race? Even ignoring the lack of a guide we can take from her first up run, this map looks tricky.

There’s a decent chance that she’ll end up travelling wide, potentially with no cover. If that happens it’s extremely unlikely she can win. There is of course also a chance that she does find a good run and if that happens, there is no doubt she has the talent to win.

On that basis, I must have her among the chances, but at the same time she’s hard for me to like.

3. The Bostonian 97-102. Assessed $10.00.

He was terrific in the QLD winter, rating 103 to win the G1 Doomben 10000 and then 101.5 to win the G1 Kingsford Smith Cup. He has a tricky map to overcome, but if he can find some cover off the pace, he’s another one that can be finishing strongly.

Combined with his peak ratings that suggest he can be right in the finish, I have to give him plenty of respect.

6. Viridine 97-101.5. Assessed $15.00.

First up here with peaks in the 101 to 102 range that suggest he’s not hopeless. Importantly he looks to get the right run off the pace and off the fence. It wouldn’t surprise if he ran particularly well

7. Tactical Advantage 99-101.5. Assessed $15.00.

He’s first up here with the blinkers back on and a very consistent rating profile in the 99 to 101.5 rating range. He produces his best in solidly run races, so this high pressure scenario will suit and he’s going to get the right run off the pace and off the fence.

The winning standard is right at his very upper limit so he may not be quite good enough to win, but it wouldn’t surprise if he ran well.

8. Bons Away 98-100. Assessed $21.00.

He’s a solid performer in the 98-100 rating range and is in good form, but his best looks just short of the minimum standard that will be needed to win. He will however get the right run and be suited by the pace, so I can’t rule out a new peak.

9. Eduardo 97-100. Assessed $26.00.

There was good merit in his first up 97.6 rating as he was in the inferior ground for the entire trip. His best is a 99 rating though and an inside draw in this high-pressure race doesn’t look ideal for him.

The fact that he’s still lightly raced with potential new peaks to come means he’s not hopeless, but I have to rate him a longshot.

1. Ball of Muscle 92-98. Assessed $41.00.

On talent he’s well-proven in the 100.5 to 102 range, which outside of Nature Strip’s peak, is very competitive with the rest. He does, however, seem to produce his best when allowed to run along at just an even early speed and he won’t get that here.

It’s been 3 years since he’s been able to produce a strong rating in a faster pace scenario and even that was a one-off, which is short of the winning standard for this. Virtually all of his run in higher pressure races have resulted in ratings well below his best.

12. Booker 95-100. Assessed $41.00.

There were some excuses first up when in the worst ground for the entire trip and she does have two spike ratings of 102 and 103, which say that on her day she can measure up to this company.

It’s impossible to forecast her at those levels though and on the map it looks very likely she’ll end up no better than midfield on the fence. That’s an incredibly difficult position to win from.

14. Meryl 97-100. Assessed $41.00.

She ran a 97 first up and did it racing in inferior ground for the trip. Off that run and with an established peak of 98, it’s not unreasonable that she can hit a new peak here towards the 100 level. She’s likely not good enough to win, but it wouldn’t surprise if she ran a respectable race

4. Faatinah 94-98. Assessed $67.00.

Comes off a good 98.8 rating win FUP, but he tends to run his best races fresh and faces a much tougher barrier / map here, especially with all of the pressure up front.

Even his best rating of 100 is short of what will be needed to win this and it doesn’t look like a scenario where he could suddenly find a new peak.

13. Winter Bride 96.5-99. Assessed $81.00.

Has a one-off peak rating of 101 but the best of her other form is in the 96.5 to 99 range, which isn’t good enough. A tough map won’t make it any easier

15. Miss Leonidas 95-98. Assessed $81.00.

She has a couple of spike ratings of 102 and 100, but most of her good form is in the 96-97 range.

10. Assertive Approach 95-98. Assessed $101.00.

He’s been ultra-consistent this preparation around the 98 level, but that’s safely short of what will be needed to be competitive in this. He also has a horror wide draw for an on-pace runner in this type of race.

Betting Strategy

This is a tricky race with much of my assessment hinging on the early pressure and in particular possible track pattern being a negative for certain runners. Those types of things are never guaranteed and even when they are, the results are far from predictable with confidence.

For that reason, I don’t want to get too heavily involved, but I’m happy to be on my top pick, Trekking for a small outlay.

 BACK – Trekking – Bet to WIN (stake 1% of your total bank.)

2:50 – Flemington Race 5 1200m 3YO – Gp2 SWP $200,000

The Track

There has been a mixed history from recent similar meetings on 6/7, 18/5 and 16/2.

Straight races are always somewhat of a lottery, depending on how the track has been prepared specifically for this meeting. My forecast is they’ll race off the fence but inside the middle of the track, but it wouldn’t surprise if they went middle to outside.

In regards to circle races, the key thing to look out for is early signs that runners settling on the fence prior to the 600m are not doing as well as those settling 2W or even 3W.

Beyond that, whether horses 4+ off the straight are more prominent than those closer in? This was the pattern we saw on 18/5.

Any irrigation on Friday may help that pattern, so worth checking on Saturday morning.

Speed and Tactics

There doesn’t look to be a great deal of natural speed here. Sebrakate has led in two of his last three but gone along at just a moderate and slow speed. Dubious has the blinkers back on and can be prominent at close to average speed, but it’s impossible to see any other runners influencing the pace.

When you add to that an average field size with no urgency up the straight to find positions, it’s very likely they’ll go moderately early come home much faster over the final 600m.

Early Pace Rating: Moderate to below average

Late Pace Rating: Solid to fast

Best Suited: Lead to 3L off lead

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Based on exposed form & ratings a figure of at least 92 at the weights to be carried will be needed to be somewhere in the finish. The winning mark could be much higher, depending on the performance of Dalasan.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order.

5. Dalasan 92-96. Assessed $2.40.

He’s a very promising prospect for this Spring. He returned first up with an excellent 98.1 rating win over Scales of Justice (normalised to 58.5kg in this race) and I really loved the late strength he showed through the line, extending his winning margin.

Ratings aside, Scales of Justice went into that race off a brilliant first-up win and has subsequently won the G1 Memsie Stakes, so it’s very apparent just how strong the form is. Nothing else in this race is yet to come close to the 98 rating Dalasan posted last start and are unlikely to here, so the main question is how close can Dalasan go to repeating that performance?

It was a big new peak and he is a horse that looks likely to appreciate further than 1200m, so staying at that trip here in a race that has a lack of early speed is a relevant factor to consider. He’s also racing up the Flemington straight for the first time.

Even taking all of that into account, I can’t mark him any longer than $2.40 here and if there was good market confidence around for him in the final 30 mins of trading, I could easily mark him shorter. He’s clearly the horse to beat.

2. Dubious 90-93.5. Assessed $6.50.

He was well backed fist up in the Vain Stakes won brilliantly by Bivouac and never looked comfortable from the time he jumped, so there’s a good reason to forgive.

Back on dry ground here and with the blinkers back on, it’s not too difficult to think he could improve back to something in the 92 to 94 rating range, which he’s product three times. At that level of performance, he’s right up there with the best chances outside of Dalasan.

4. Super Seth 91-93.5. Assessed $6.50.

Comes off a good first up win at Caulfield when not ideally suited by a race that was run moderately early and through the middle stages. His 91.1 rating from that run was solid, but is matched on talent by plenty of others in this race.

The quality of his finish says he does have upside, but how much is speculative? Even factoring in some improvement, I can’t get him much shorter than $6 or $6.50.

I’d have to factor in an unrealistic amount of improvement from one run to the next to get him anywhere near the $3.50 in the market. I also have a little query whether he’s actually looking for 1400m. For better or worse, I have to risk him.

3. Strasbourg 89-93. Assessed $12.00.

A big watch here. He jumped out very well at Flemington recently and that was off a nice trial win prior at Randwick. Last prep he ran a new peak 89 rating (which is not good enough here) but then did run another new peak 93 next start over 1400m when he won the G2 Sires Produce at Eagle Farm.

If he’s come back a better horse this preparation, he could return at something like that 93 level with further peaks to come, which would make him very competitive.

11. Express Pass 90-92. Assessed $14.00.

A progressive type that ran 88.3 on debut in May with signs of more to come and then resumed in August with a 90.4 at Bendigo, easily winning his maiden. He needs to improve again to measure up here, but that’s not out of the question.

8. Sebrakate 88.5-91. Assessed $16.00.

He was very unlucky last start behind Super Seth, but the figures in the race weren’t strong and his 89 rating (even 90-91 allowing for back luck) is still short of what will be needed to win this. With nine starts he’s well exposed for an early 3YO and has always just seemed a tradesman like type to me. I’m not sure he has the same potential to improve as some of the others.

1. Yourdeel 89-91.5. Assessed $6.50.

Just named NZ 2YO of the year, he resumed here for new trainer David Hayes. His best of 90.8 and 91.3 in NZ is not far off, but he has aspirations to reach the 1600m Caulfield Guineas this prep, so it’s hard for me to forecast him running a big new peak first up in this.

9. Hawker Hurricane 85-89. Assessed $61.00.

Had every chance first up and only ran 81.8. Hasn’t looked the same horse since his promising 92 rating when first up in Feb this year.

10. Yulong Savings 84-88. Assessed $81.00.

Looks outclassed off an 83.8 rating last start and career best if 87.8.

6. Fabulanski 85-88.5. Assessed $201.00.

First up and likely needs much further than 1200m. Outclassed.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Dalasan – Bet to WIN (stake 1.8% of your total bank.)

3:10 – Rosehill Race 6 1200m 3YO – Gp2 SWP $200,000

The Track

The track is currently rated a Good 4 and the rail is out 6m. With fine weather forecast, we should be racing on a Good 3 for most of the day.

At similar meetings on 27/7/19, 15/6/19 and 8/12/2018 the track raced very evenly, without a notable pattern.

Speed and Tactics

There’s a distinct lack of speed here. The rank outsider Mo’s Crown looks the likely leader and it’s hard to see anything wanting to pressure for that position.

Bivouac has the blinkers off, which suggest they want him to relax more, so he’s unlikely to be aggressive early and none of the other runners have ever shown intent to be up on the lead in their careers so far.

Mo’s Crown does have winkers on for the first time, so there’s a small chance that he fires-up and goes at a good speed, but that probability aside, this race looks almost certain to be run at a slow to moderate early speed, developing into a fast sprint home over the final 400m to 600m.

Early Pace Rating: Slow to moderate

Late Pace Rating: Fast

Best Suited: Lead to 2L off lead

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Based on exposed form & ratings a figure of at least 98 at the weights to be carried will be needed to be somewhere in the finish and most likely 99+ to actually win.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order.

4. Exceedance 99-102. Assessed $1.90.

He entered this Spring preparation as a potential star and he stepped up and delivered with a stunning first-up performance. His 101 rating was stamped by an electric sprint and relative to standards, the last 200m was the fastest part of his race.

That suggests he has more to offer! Back to a dry track here is no issue as it was Good track runs last preparation where he showed his top-class potential.

He’s just as effective on top of the ground. We do have to temper the enthusiasm a little in light of the fact that his first up win was a big spike on his previous form and there’s always the chance of some regression (think Bivouac and Libertini 2nd up in recent weeks).

This will also be a slow to moderate run race and while his sectional speed is clearly the best in this race, he will need a good ride from Berry to make sure he doesn’t leave himself too much to do.

Even taking all of that into account though, I find it hard to price him any longer than $1.90, so the current $2.20 market price looks a good bet.

In a race of this depth, I’d expect him to stay in the $2.05 to $2.20 range on the Exchange. He brings the best overall and recent figures with signs to say there is potential for a new peak. That’s a particularly strong profile.

3. Bivouac 97.5-101. Assessed $4.80.

His first up win at Caulfield was outstanding… a 100.8 rating (normalised to 57kg in this race), which that saw him go into the San Domenico at Rosehill as a $1.40 favourite, only to be beaten 2 lengths by Exceedance. His rating of 97.7 in that run was still good, but safely down on that first up effort.

It’s impossible to blame the heavy track as his 96.8 peak last preparation came on Soft 7. Leading into his last start, the fact that he had that performance and an earlier win on Heavy 8 was seen as a positive by the market.

It’s possible that first up 100.8 was a big spike run and that his subsequent 97.7, along with his prior prep 96.8 is more like his general level of talent.

This race will tell us more, but even in that range he’s still clearly the second-best chance in this race and we also have to respect the possibility that he could rebound to something like that first up figure.

5. Dawn Passage 96-98. Assessed $9.00.

He won the Listed Rosebud first up coming from a long way back in a fast run race, earning a 96.1 rating. He showed clear signs that he’ll appreciate further than 1100m, so the step up to 1200m here ideal.

The query for me is a much slower pace in this race compared to his last start will require a very fast sprint home. I question whether that’s ideal for him and whether he’s likely to better suited when the pace is stronger, especially at 1200m.

He’s still among the chances, but I’ve had to make allowance for that query in my price.

2. Yes Yes Yes 92.5-97. Assessed $13.00.

He has a huge boom on him, but has yet to produce the ratings to justify that in my eyes. He was very good first up last prep when he won the G2 Todman Stakes, but his 94.4 rating from that run is well short of the standard that will be needed to win this.

He lines up here off what I think are some mixed trials, needing a big new peak in a slow to moderate run race that probably isn’t ideal for him. I’ll happily stand corrected if he’s good enough to win this, but on the evidence available I’m more than happy to risk him.

6. Kubrick 92-96. Assessed $18.00.

I really like him as a Group 1 prospect this preparation. He ran an 88.8 on debut, improved to 93.9 second up and then went from 1200m to 1600m in the G1 JJ Atkins at Eagle Farm to run a 96 rating, just beaten by Prince Fawaz after being wide all the way.

That’s impressive progress in three runs during his first preparation and Chris Waller has a terrific record at turning 2YO’s like him into G1 winning 3YO’s. I’m not sure this is his race though. He’s likely to be ridden quietly and find others too sharp in a fast 600m sprint.

I’ll be looking for him to hit the line strongly though, with a view to future races in the 1400m to 1600m range.

1. Prince Fawaz 90-94. Assessed $51.00.

Has paid the price for his G1 JJ Atkins win over 1600m with 58.5kg here and that leaves him poorly placed over 1200m, in a slowly run race against others with a much sharper sprint. Even if he could reproduce his 93.6 JJ Atkins rating, that won’t be good enough.

7. Hightail 91-95. Assessed $51.00.

Can improve off his 88 first-up rating after being wide and in the inferior ground for the entire trip. That said, his best of 93 so far is well short of the standard that will be needed to win this race.

8. Mos Crown 84-91. Assessed $5001.00.

He offers us a leader in this race, but an average maiden win and 86.9 peak rating is totally outclassed in this race.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Exceedance – Bet to WIN (stake 2.3% of your total bank.)

4:50pm Caulfield R8 – 1400m Open G1 WFA – The Memsie Stakes

The Track

The track is currently rated a Good 4 and the rail is in the true position. At the last similar meeting on 20/4/19, the fence was well and truly off, but the track was reportedly still recovering from renovation. Since then we’ve only seen the rail in the true position one other time, on 29/6 (Soft 7) where it was even. Historically the track has played evenly on Good ground as well.

We’re expecting a fair surface with winners to come from forward and back, with a wide spread across the home straight, from the fence to approximately 8 horses off.

Speed and Tactics

There looks to be plenty of early pressure and speed here. Cliffs Edge (2) likes to roll along in front and can set a strong speed when at his peak, which he must be close to after the last start. Scales of Justice (5) will hold a handy position, while Despatch (8) should press forward looking for a spot.

The key is Begood Toya Mother (13). He is at his best when running along in front and can also set a fast speed. From that wide draw he’s almost certain to press forward at a strong gallop and with Cliffs Edge looking to hold the front as well, this looks an ideal scenario to create a solid to fast early speed.

Early Pace Rating: Solid to Fast

Late Pace Rating: Moderate to Slow

Best Suited: 2.5L to 5L off the lead.

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Based on exposed form & ratings a figure of at least 100 will be needed to be somewhere in the finish and most likely 101+ to actually win.

It’s impossible to see a race like this won with anything less. It could push as high as 103-104 with both Alizee and Scales of Justice holding peak ratings up to that level and higher.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order.

11. Alizee 100-104. Assessed $3.40.

She’s a proven mare with talent in the 103-105 range (with a best of 106) and her first up rating of 100 when wide, taking off early and eased down late suggests she’s come back well enough to get back to that 103-105 range.

This is an early prep target race for her so expect her to be improved from that first up effort and I think a wide draw which will force her to go back with a fast speed up front actually suits. She’s a mare that does her best and not pressured too much early and is able to run no better than an average split through to the 800m.

She then has the ability to unleash a big final 800m rating and sustain strong speed over the final stages of her race. If somewhere near her best, there’s no doubt she has the speed to make up the ground from well back in the field here.

I also like than an in-form D Oliver has been booked to take this ride. He rides the Caulfield track so well and that’s an advantage on a horse like Alizee that needs to make a run from back in the field –

An interesting side stat, D Oliver is showing a +16% POT from his 183 rides at Caulfield up to $10 SP since 2016. With the strong speed expected up front, Alizee will be charging home late and looks very hard to hold out.

5. Scales of Justice 99-103. Assessed $4.80.

He ran a monster 106 rating when so impressive first up over 1200m at Caulfield (unfancied in betting), then regressed off that to a 100.5 last start when beaten by the promising Dalasan.

The 106 may prove a spike, but a 100.5 is still very respectable in the context of this race and it’s worth noting that Lindsay Smith is very much a 3rd up and beyond trainer… with his stats strongest in that range.

With that in mind and the prospect of Scales of Justice end up with a nice run just off the lead here, it would not surprise to see him hold that 100.5 or even improve. He’s right in the mix, especially if there’s some betting support to suggest he may improve on last start.

1. Hartnell 98-101.5. Assessed $7.00.

The honest old warrior ran well first up behind Mystic Journey with a 98.5 rating, comparable to his last two first up efforts.

In February he improved 2nd up to a 101 when beaten 1 length behind Alizee in the G1 Futurity (this T&D), so there’s every reason to expect that he will improve 2nd up here.

He’s the one that looks to get the cheap run around mid-field on the fence and can be working home along the inside late as the leader starts to tire over the final 150m. If the gaps come then he can be very competitive in the finish.

9. Begood Toya Mother 97-101. Assessed $8.50.

Taking the big step up to WFA here and his 99 rating FUP win along with peak of 101.5 says he can be very competitive. His two best ratings of 101 and 101.5 have come when he’s run along at a fast speed up on the lead, so the prospect of a fast pace here doesn’t look a major issue.

The risk is just how much work he has to do early to find his position before settling into that speed and the competitive pressure that may come from Cliffs Edge.

If that horse hands up to the lead and Begood Toya Mother can roll along on his own terms, then he can run an overall time that will see him very hard to run down.

6. Cliffs Edge 97-101. Assessed $12.00.

Made big improvement LS when a 99.4 rating 2nd place to Mystic Journey at this T&D. His best is around that 100 level so he can certainly be competitive, but he’ll almost certainly need a new peak to win.

I’m not sure whether being taken on by Begood Toya Mother is the ideal scenario for him to achieve that, but If by some chance he gets the lead on his own, he could certainly give some cheek to those chasing.

13. Fundamentalist 96-100. Assessed $23.00.

Her 96.5 FUP behind Begood Toya Mother was solid, but she did have every chance to do better.

She did run a 101.3 over 1400m last prep though (3rd up), so the talent is there to be competitive. It would surprise me if she won, but you can’t totally rule her out.

3. Humidor 94-99. Assessed $34.00

Has prepared well for this first up and although win a different trainer now (Maher vs ex Weir) he has typically needed a first up run before he can start to show something near his best. I expect him to be hitting the line nicely, but would be surprised if he won.

8. So Si Bon 94-98. Assessed $34.00.

A strong return FUP, winning over 1200m at Flemington with a 97.8 rating. That’s only a couple of lengths away here and he’s been to 99 before (over 2000m) so it’s not out of the question he could run a respectable race. His history says though he’s just as likely to regress to something in the 94-95 range.

10. Sesar 90-98. Assessed $51.00.

Ran an impressive 102.5 winning FUP at Randwick over 1200m on Heavy 8. He had a similar rating on Heavy over 1200m the prep prior, but the rest of his form is ordinary, nowhere near the level needed to be competitive in this race.

He’s either a first up horse, Heavy tracker or both. Being a colt it’s no surprise they’re having a throw at the stumps in a G1 race.

2. Black Heart Bart 95-98. Assessed $61.00.

First-up for more than 10 months as a nine-year-old and it has been over two years since he produced a rating that suggests he could win this race.

4. Material Man 92-98. Assessed $67.00.

Possibly didn’t like the Heavy ground first up, because typically he’s rated in the 98-100 range first up. You couldn’t like him off what he did last start, but he did run 98 and 99 in his first two runs last prep, both over this track and distance, so it wouldn’t be the biggest surprised if he improved massively.

7. Despatch 93-97. Assessed $101.00.

Ran a 101 when he won the Goodwood in May, but I felt that was a flattering run where he was in a hot-lane on the track for the entire trip. The best of his other 12 runs is in the 96-97 range, which is well short of the standard needed here.

He’s also never struck me as a 1400m horse and weakened first up over 1200m with just a 94.8 rating. I couldn’t possibly make a case for him in this race, but I note he’s 20/1 in the market.

12. Oohood 91-96. Assessed $151.00.

Outside of a spike run in the Golden Slipper 18 months ago, her best form is in the 96-97 range and she was just fair first up, all be it on Heavy ground. Can’t make a case for her at all.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Alizee – Bet to WIN (stake 1.3% of your total bank.)

I could be tempted to save or make a small profit by also backing Scales of Justice IF he is strongly supported in the betting market.

Go where the value is on Horse Racing with the Betfair Exchange

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