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EXPERT RACING TIPS: PAKENHAM

PAKENHAM PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | THURSDAY MAY 30TH 2024

RAIL: 9m TRACK: Soft 5

Pakenham has played very well all season, this meeting probably brings about it the most weather variables we’ve seen. With 50km/h wind gusts (a headwind down the back straight) and up to 10ml of rain, although most predicted after 10pm, it’s a watch and see. I do think horses will be swooping down the middle of the track.

Best Bets

Jackson Oldham

Best Bet

Betting Strategy

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BEST BET
LAY: 4. Dream All Day (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.45)

Laying Dream All Day at the odds on quote. Her debut run here was terrific on the clock, rating nearly 2L better than the average winning standard of this race, however I thought she tracked up like the winner and was plain late, I don’t like the step up in trip for her and there are two worthy challengers.

Jackson Oldham

Best Bet

Betting Strategy

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BACK: 2. Ailyak (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.00)

I was taken by the debut win of Ailyak, he had on a very fast tempo on debut which isn’t easy to do and had the audacity to run away from his rivals, running the 2nd-fastest last 100m split of the entire meeting. I’m confident he’s better than BM58 grade.

3. Shock
2. Defense Tycoon
4. Dream All Day
5. Glenisla

Betting Strategy

BEST BET
LAY: 4. Dream All Day (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.45)

Laying Dream All Day at the odds on quote. Her debut run here was terrific on the clock, rating nearly 2L better than the average winning standard of this race, however I thought she tracked up like the winner and was plain late, I don’t like the step up in trip for her and there are two worthy challengers.

9. Minamishima
6. Romaji
4. Muktamil
7. Eminent Queen

Betting Strategy

LAY: 4. Muktamil (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.10)

Laying Muktamil, who brings a similar timeform ratings profile to Craig, who bolted in last Wednesday at Bendigo, he had a 83+ debut run, Muktamil brings in an 84+ but that was over 2000m and with a lack of speed in this race, I’m worried he may lack the required turn of foot to win.

9. Lovey
4. Regal Lover
6. Whateley
1. Bancory Bay

Betting Strategy

Little between those in the market here for me, Lovey has been good in all three runs this preparation and is nearing a victory, I had a slight query on her at 1400m and also gate 1.

7. Miss Roumbini
3. Halvar
4. Mistavain
2. Apparatus

Betting Strategy

LAY: 2. Apparatus (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $7.25)

Apparatus had every chance last start and the eventual winner overcame trouble to win, the rating was ok but Mistavain’s was better in maiden grade. Miss Roumbini is likely a stakes class filly, the map is horrible though and Halvar was tremendous against the pattern at Moe first-up, although 1200m is some niggle.

2. Ailyak
5. Amani
7. Marlion’s Dream
6. Fort William

Betting Strategy

BACK: 2. Ailyak (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.00)

I was taken by the debut win of Ailyak, he had on a very fast tempo on debut which isn’t easy to do and had the audacity to run away from his rivals, running the 2nd-fastest last 100m split of the entire meeting. I’m confident he’s better than BM58 grade.

3. Korobeiniki
4. Nystrom
7. Charming Di
5. Spirit Of Nurai

Betting Strategy

BACK: 3. Korobeiniki (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $6.12)

This is an easy race to get way off market, Royal Mule is basic and likely has pattern against leading into a wind and up the inside from the draw and Spirit Of Nurai was poor first-up.

Korobeiniki was terrific last start, flies at Pakenham and this is a perfect race shape and likely pattern of the night for him to be charging home late.

BACK: 4. Nystrom (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $5.50)

The market has had an opinion of Nystrom in two career runs in Australia, he was well backed and failed at his Aus debut at Geelong but the market kept him safe again and I thought the win at Yarra Glen had more merit than the times and margins suggested. Her most recent jumpout was very good, expecting a good run first-up.

9. Peppino
1. Brazen Kingdom
4. Do You Think So
2. Girello

Betting Strategy

Horribly tough race, I’ve put Peppino on top, I’ll have something small each-way 1×3 if we get some rain by R7.

11. Villefranche
10. Golden Estrella
4. Thunder Award
5. Hola Amigos

Betting Strategy

BACK: 11. Villefranche (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $7.10)

Villafranche appeared to return a better horse first-up off 322-days at Wangaratta, if she can hold that rating then any price in the double figure range is simply too big.

Want to learn how to lay bet?

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When you place a lay bet, you are betting on something not to happen. Let’s think about the Melbourne Cup again. Remember: there can only be one winner. But what about the others trailing behind them? If you place a lay bet in a “Win” market, you can celebrate if the runner tails off at the back of the field.

PAKENHAM RACECOURSE | TIPS

Summary

Pakenham Racecourse is located 70 kilometres south-east of the Melbourne CBD. As well as two tracks (turf and Polytrack), the racecourse also houses a world-class training facility used by some of Victoria’s leading stables, including Peter Moody and Phillip Stokes. Local trainers have a particularly good strike rate at their home track, and often feature in Betfair’s Pakenham tips.     

Key Events

The Pakenham Cup, held each December, is the club’s major raceday. The Listed 2500m contest was won in 2021 by Smokin’ Romans, ridden by Jamie Kah and trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. The feature race of the club’s jumps racing program is the Mosstrooper Steeplechase, whether it’s on the flat or over the fences head to the Betfair Hub for Pakenham best bets on each and every meeting. 

Track Profile

The turf track (circumference 2,410m, width 25m) has a fibre reinforced sand profile with full subsurface drainage system. The home straight is 480m long, with a testing rise to the winning post (similar to Sandown). The course generally exhibits little bias and appears to perform well in wet and dry weather conditions, meaning punters can bet with confidence. Find Pakenham tips today on the Betfair Hub.   

History

Pakenham Racing Club was first formed in 1875. From hosting once-a-year picnic meetings the club gradually grew in stature, with the Pakenham Cup first run in 1926. Today the club hosts several race meetings, with night racing on the turf track in summer and autumn and jumps racing during winter, as well as flat races on the all-weather synthetic surface. Betfair brings you the best Pakenham tips all year round. 

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