Betfair Insider: Today’s Horse Racing Tips

The Betfair Insider is the resident Exchange expert and the go-to for today’s horse racing tips. He provides commentary, opinion and educates on all things Thoroughbred racing. Check out the Betfair Hub and the Betfair Exchange for the latest odds.


Straddy Day is the Grand Final of the Brisbane Winter Carnival and although it’s not the day we are used to, it still features two Group 1s in the J.J. Atkins (1400m this year) and the Stradbroke Handicap, supported by the Group 3 Rough Habit Plate now over the 2200m

Eagle Farm Race 2 | BM90 Handicap 1400m | 11:50am

With all this group action later on in the day, lots of eyes will be on those races but I’m pretty keen to take one on in the BM90 Handicap. Red Chase raced wide without cover but still managed to get up and make it a hat-trick of wins last start, but I think it’s come up against a classier galloper on Saturday.

Reckless Choice was strong last outing 0.9 lengths behind Red Chase fresh up after four months. Will be better for it and now getting a small swing in the weights. I have them both around the $4.00 mark with Soxagon at his correct price.

I think Soxagon is a pretty good thing. It’s come up a little short so I see better value in taking on the second fav.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Red Chase at $3.50 or lower to risk 2 units.


Eagle Farm Race 7 | Group 1 J.J. Atkins 1400m | 2:55pm

Back 200m in distance this year, it’s looking like this race will unveil a new sprinting star rather than the middle distance classics horse we have been accustomed to seeing. I’ve got no knock on favourite Rothfire and he’s incredibly hard to fault. He should head forward from the wide gate and be pretty hard to chase down at the business end of the race but the one I want to be on should follow him across.

I was a fan of Wisdom Of Water last prep. I think he was incredibly unlucky in the Magic Millions and with a bit of luck in running would have been right there with Away Game in that race. He looks to have come back in even better shape, demolished them first up then much too good again at the Gold Coast.

He still looks to be improving to my eye. The only minor query for me is out to the 1400m but I think he will overcome that. May just be a star in the making this colt, happy to be on at $6 or above.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Wisdom Of Water for 2 Units


Eagle Farm Jockey Challenge

Another strong book for Brad Stewart today and I have him and Ryan Maloney on top in a pretty even one, where I have 6 Jockeys all predicted to score between 4 and 6 points.

Stewart has both Ballistic Boy and Soxagon who are very likely to poll with 3 other rides I give a chance to. Maloney has a massive 7 rides, plenty of which are in the market including Pinnacle Star who’s likely to land him some points early.

Betting Strategy

BACK – 0.5 units on Brad Stewart

BACK – 0.5 units on Ryan Maloney

We head back to Doomben for another day of quality group racing. Track a likely Good 4 – Soft 5 and should play similar to it has in the last few weeks.

Doomben Race 2 | Ascot Green Bm90 1600M | 11:50AM

Dual acceptor Sir Barnabus is third-up and I’m hoping they opt for this race rather than the Chairman’s Hcp later in the card. He hasn’t missed a beat in his return. Was sent around at a big price when resuming and managed to win by a nose before taking on the stronger field in the Wayne Wilson Handicap at the Sunshine Coast.

That run was full of merit. Drawing wide, he had to drop out before powering home to finish 8th just 1.3L of the winner Victory Eight. He will be top weight but he’s not conceding a huge amount to his rivals. With the smaller field, I’m hoping he won’t get too far back and if he’s within 4 of the leaders on the bend I’m confident he will give this a real shake.

I’m happy to take on 3yo current favourite Star Of Michelin who was strong to the line at Sunshine Coast last time in after missing the start. Was entitled to pick up in that and got a complete forgive with Cardiac Arrhythmia the start before but is too short for mine at the $3.50 on offer.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – 1 unit Sir Barnabus at anything over $5.00


Doomben Race 5 | Pam O’neill Stakes 1600m | 1:40PM

The 3yo Fillies are set to clash and I think the two at the top of the market have a bit on their rivals in this one. Rocha Clock was massive two starts back, rocketing home from last and posting an impressive last 200m before running into a smart one in Dawn Passage where she was far from disgraced. I’m sure she will be firing again late in this one.

Vanna Girl is a very smart filly, exemplified in beating the boys in the Doomben Guineas. We saw that form ranked spectacularly with runner up Supergiant coming out and winning the Group 3 Gunsynd. She looks highly progressive and I can’t wait to see her out over 2000m.

Tough draw the query and whether she can push forward to find a spot is the question mark. I can see her handling this even if posted three deep with cover.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Dutch both Vanna Girl & Rocha Clock for the effective price of $1.90 for 3 Units.


Doomben Jockey Challenge

Brad Stewart is a clear favourite and with the bookings of Oriental Runner, Vanna Girl and Dawn Passage you can understand why. But he has come up very short and although I think he should win I’m not seeing great value at the $2.00 on offer.

The one I want to be on at a price is Justin Huxtable he’s got a solid book and the 15’s on offer is overs for mine. I think he should be closer to the $8.00 mark.

Betting Strategy

BACK – 1 unit on Justin Huxtable

The Brisbane Racing Carnival is heating up with Eagle Farm set to host Champagne Classic Day which features three Group races.

Eagle Farm Race 5 | Benchmark 78 1200M | 1:40PM

Although it’s not one of the main three races, I think this BM78 produces one of the better bets on the card in Totally Charmed.

This lightly raced 5yo gelding returned after a 350-day spell in impressive fashion last month. It never really had clear running but still managed to run dominant sectionals and via The Rating Bureau, it had the best L600m rating of the meeting. Watch that replay HERE

He draws well here and steps out to the 1200m. I’m hoping he doesn’t get too far back, but if he can sit midfield the rail off a good tempo (Solar Star should set) and get a bit of luck from Thornton, he will be right in this. Happy to be with a horse on the up at the 8’s currently available.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – 1 unit Totally Charmed


Eagle Farm Race 7 | Gunsynd Classic 1800M | 2:55PM

Enter boom Sydney three-year-old Kinane. I won’t be winning too many awards having this guy on top, but for me he just seems the perfect fit for the Brisbane winter 3yo staying races.

He’s won his past two starts, including the Group 3 Frank Packer Plate (field included Derby winner), where he was eased on the line after reeling in the breakaway leader. He looked like he had a fair bit left and has had a trial to keep him honest.

The danger for mine is Supergiant who was very brave in defeat in the Doomben Guineas where he went down a neck to Vanna Girl. He will keep improving and will likely look the threat bowling around the corner in front.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – 3 units Kinane

BACK (WIN) – 1 unit Supergiant


Eagle Farm Jockey Challenge

Jim Byrne and Ryan Maloney have come up early favs and whilst they should be at the pointy end of the market they have come up too short for mine.

Baylee Nothdurft & Matthew McGillivray both represent better value on a very competitive day. Baylee has a strong book of 6 rides with 5 of them I’ve rated his mount in the top 3 of the race. McGillivray has a massive 8 rides, although they aren’t in the same class many are a good chance of placing and I can see him stacking up some numbers.

Betting Strategy

BACK – 1 unit on Nothdurft

BACK – 1 unit on McGillivray

Morphettville Race 8 | The Goodwood 1200m | 4:25pm

Good field assembled here for the Goodwood. Has been a race to throw up some upset results. Four of the last six winners have SP’d over $20.

Currently a Soft 5 with not a lot of rain predicted so it should remain around that mark. With the rail out +8, I’d say it will be a little more even than the run on bias we saw last week. Look to see if they’re trying to get off the fence in the earlier races.

I have broken down the key runners of the race below.


Key Runners

1. Santa Ana Lane – Until it breaks through again for another win, I simply cannot tip it at any price under $10. It won’t run a bad race and probably never will, but the quality to win a race like this just doesn’t seem to be there anymore. Will be in the finish but won’t be the one in front.

2. Trekking – It’s been the one that they’ve backed early. Early odds of $9s were probably wrong but coming into a fair price now. John Allen riding beautifully at the moment and is a big tick here. I’m a little worried about where it may end up in the run. The speed will be on and it could be too far back. Happy to leave it alone and watch the Betfair market for any more support.

3. Gytrash – Not many horses going around who have put in better performances over the last 6 months. Gytrash is airborne and is a very deserved favourite. The only query you could have is the barrier. I’ll be leaving it alone at anything under $3.50 but if we can still get $4 around the jump on Betfair, I’ll take that price.

4. Sunlight – Last start was too bad to be true and it never had any chance of winning. This time around, a lot of boxes ticked. Terrific third up record, drawn well and the blinkers go on. We should get a double figure quote on the day on Betfair which is a great price. If you like the horse, you must stick with it, and I like it. At its best, it’s a top chance.

6. Jungle Edge – A competitive G1 wet-tracker who I usually would look straight past in a race of this caliber with no rain expected. However, last start, albeit on a Soft 7, was too impressive to not mention. Drawn wide, he will have to work across and it won’t be an easy task but he looks to be in as good of form as I’ve seen. Market watch.

7. The Inevitable – Definitely a step up here against the quality he’s raced before but is still a winning chance. The barrier is not ideal but the drop in weight along with knowing what he can do late means he has to be in consideration. Not for me but if you’re with him, back him EW.

8. Order of Command – Can’t put a pen through any runner from the O’Brien stable with how well they’re going as of late. Big jump in class here. The last couple of runs have been terrific but both have been on soft tracks. How will it handle firmer ground? Has the fitness edge on a lot of these but a few others have better winning chances. One to watch the market on Betfair.

9. Behemoth – Came second in this race last year and looks well weighted to give it another crack. Form leading into it has been good but racing against a quality field here and the price looks right. Happy to leave it alone.

11. Lyre – Was a pretty impressive finish in the Robert Sangster, just missing after flying home. Track patterns on the day will be key to winning chances here. Loves to go back and could be a long way off them at the turn. If they are running on, Lyre will be finishing harder than anyone in this field and looks a good EW chance.

I could not entertain any of the rest.


Betting Strategy

Tough race and certainly not one you can dive into with a lot of confidence with Gytrash the standout. I think Sunlight is a great price and I am happy to be with him at double-figure odds. The price to place will ensure we get plenty if he falls just short.

BACK – 1 unit EW on Sunlight

Two Group 1s headline a very wet Saturday at Morphettville. With plenty of value across the card, I’ve turned my attention to the fillies in the Australasian Oaks.

Morphettville RACE 7 | Australasian Oaks 2000M | 3:26PM

I’ve got the Sydney girls a bit ahead of the rest in my assessment and have taken the view that the Waller pair are a rung above.

If you take the ultra-impressive Colette out of the Adrian Knox and AJC Oaks, Toffee Tongue goes on to win both those events and I’d say we would see a much shorter quote than the $6.50 that’s currently on offer. Both those seconds came on heavy tracks and this Tavistock filly has drawn well once again.

Easily getting the better of Nudge in the AJC Oaks, I think the drop back to the 2000m will bring the two closer together. She ranged up to beat Shout The Bar in the G1 Vinery and is the danger in my opinion.

The VOBIS Sires Guineas is another form race to look at with both Affair To Remember and Moonlight Maid hitting the line well. Whilst the runs were appealing to the eye, I’m not convinced the race was as strong as what it looked.

Honorable mentions to Realm Of Flowers and Sierra Sue who are nice progressive types and could shock at big prices.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – 1 unit EW on Toffee Tongue at $6 or higher


Morphettville Jockey Challenge

Barend Vorster has been installed as an early favourite and whilst he’s got a good book of rides headlined by Sunlight, I think a few of the hoops on the card have just as good of a book, I’ll be happy to take him on with plenty of jocks taking numbers today, it’s going to be a tough one to win.

Stubby Holder and Toddy Pannel both look a good bet to me. Holder has a ride in every race on the card and has a good anchor in Garner. Likewise, Pannell has a stack of rides only missing one race with plenty in the market.

Spain and Thornton also likely to take up numbers, making Vorsters task hard.

Betting Strategy

I’m going to LAY Vorster at anything under 3’s and have a small play on both Pannell and Holder

 LAY – Vorster for at $3’s or under for 2 units. (1 unit profit)

BACK – o.5 units on Pannell $4.50 or higher

BACK – 0.5 units on Holder at $7’s or higher

Randwick Race 7 | All Aged Stakes 1400m | 3:40pm

Strong field assembled for this. A lot of these are coming off a heavy track so the leadup form is a bit hazy but no surprise to see four of the top five in the market have come from the T J Smith.


Key Runners

1. Pierata – Instantly backed into favoritism when the markets opened which is worth noting. It has run on well in both Group 1’s this prep but it needs to win a race. This maybe could’ve been the Grand Final all along? If you like the horse, stick with it, but I won’t be with it on the day. If it gets in the $3 range, i’ll look to lay.

2. Santa Ana Lane – Opened as the favourite when markets launched but quickly drifted out. Did end up 2nd in the TJ but was in a bunch at the finish. What does he do from barrier 1? I won’t discourage anyone from still believing in Santa but I just can’t be with it at any sort of price below $8.

3. Dreamforce – Looks the obvious leader once again. Back off a little freshen up for this. Nash is absolutely flying and knows exactly how to run the field off their feet onboard Dreamforce. Can’t see them leaving him alone in this but looks a good place bet at the BSP.

9. Tofane – First time at the 1400m distance which has to be noted. Opie on who has been going well. Has been running home very well in NSW but I just question on whether there’s enough upside here to win this. Comfortable to not take a position on it.

11. Bivouac – Getting the same price for him that we did last start, but this time in a weaker race? Yes please. Bombed the start in the TJ and was last around the turn but ran on very well. Sectionals back that up. Just must be with it again.

Betting Strategy

This looks a tough race but I’m happy to be with Bivouac again at good odds. Shouldn’t be too far off them around the turn and can show the class we all know he has.

BACK – Bivouac at anything above $5 for 2 units.


Randwick Jockey Challenge

Over the last few weeks if your strategy was taking on J-Mac you would be doing well and once again he has come up as the favourite. I fell into the trap at the short odds this week and I’m not not going to become a repeat offender. Second favourite Nash Rawiller has been in great form but is still a little short for my liking. I concede they both have a good book with some great anchors in Rubisaki and Shared Ambition, but I will be looking to go around them today.

I see both Hugh Bowman and Tim Clark good bets at their current price of $7.80 along with Tommy Berry who is great value at 15’s. All three of them have books littered with point accumulating mounts that are comparable to the top two in the market and we are getting a better price.

Betting Strategy

I’m going to play half a unit on each of them.

BACK – Hugh Bowman for 0.5 units

BACK – Tim Clark for 0.5 units

BACK – Tommy Berry for 0.5 units

Randwick (Kensington) Jockey Challenge

James McDonald lands on top once again but has come up very very short at around the $1.50 mark.  I have him as a pretty clear winner today. I project him getting points in races 1,4,5 and 7 and potentially getting an outsider to run a slot as well.

Next best for me is Kerrin Mcevoy and at the juicy price of $9’s I’m happy to have a small play on him. He should get on the board in Races 7,8 and 4 and if he manages to win a couple, it could get him within range of J-Mac.

Betting Strategy

I’m going to play J-Mac to cover my Mcevoy bet and hopefully, come out even with the chance of Kerrin causing a boilover.

BACK – 2 units on James McDonald at $1.5 or higher

BACK – 1 unit on Kerrin Mcevoy at $9 or higher

Day Two of the Championships and it looks another great betting card. The feature, the Queen Elizabeth Stakes is a cracker and I would have loved to cover it but the Japanese horse is too unknown for mine.

The word is he will measure up in similar style to that of past Japanese stars in Australian Group 1’s. A few of the ones I was leaning towards may be out of their depth.

The track with further showers forecast for today will prob be a soft 7, plenty of wind expected tomorrow so may dry to a 6.


Randwick Race 6 | The Australian Oaks 2400m | 2:30pm

The Vinery Study Stakes is the form race I want to be taking into this one. Shout The Bar will be right up near the lead again and there is no reason to suggest she won’t enjoy getting out over the 2400, but Probabeel is the one I want to be with.

She just holds her form really well and definitely has the class to be winning this race. Tactics will be interesting but I’m hoping she can come across and get in somewhere mid-field and conserve energy for a final assault and turn the tables on Shout The Bar.

The other form race to consider is the Adrian Knox Stakes where we saw a super performance from Colette. I’d say she will need to go to another level again to get the better of the other two and she may not get the tempo she requires.

I have her far too short at around $3 bucks and if I was going to have a play on anything out of that race it would be Quintessa at a big price.  She draws 5 and will get an easier time of it in this.


Betting Strategy

BACK – 2 units on Probabeel at $4 or higher

BACK – 0.5 units each-way on Quintessa at $20 or higher.


Randwick Jockey Challenge

With the scratching in Race 2, I thought I’d put together a short Randwick Jockey Challenge Summery.

James McDonald lands on top for me. He has a great book of rides anchored by favourites Funstar, Savatiano and the Japanese horse, Danon Premium. I see him banking 10 points plus and that should enough to win. My only issue is how short he is. I had him around $5.00 and he has come up much shorter.

The value jockey for mine is Glen Boss. He has some good rides short in the market with Away Game, Collete and Electric Girl but it’s the outsiders that I give a real chance. If he can get a few home for a place he will give this a shake at a big price.

Betting Strategy

BACK – 1 unit on Glen Boss at $16 or higher


Randwick Race 2 | 1400m | 12:10pm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m pretty keen to be with the Hawkes runner Spend early in the card. It just seems really well placed here after an unusual prep.

Latest outing he looked good when he finished 4th 0.4L at Bendigo in the Bendigo Guineas carrying 60kg. He was clicked up early in that event only for them to slow and he had to start again in the final 600 where he seemed to be left a little flat-footed under the weight and was left vulnerable to be taken late. The start before that, he sat on the speed throughout before fading to run last 4.7 lengths in the G1 George Ryder.

I’m not seeing any stand out dangers other than the fav Yao Dash who failed on his return (may of sustained an injury). Drawn well and an encouraging trial where he was pushed out may very well have him back ready to go in this but there is still a question mark for mine especially on soft going.

Not a heck of a lot of speed other than Yao Dash so I see him pinging to the front and J-Mac brining Spend across to sit behind him.


Betting Strategy

BACK – Spend EW at $7 or higher for 1 unit.

Randwick Race 8 | T J Smith Stakes 1200m | 4:35pm

What a great race this looks to be on paper. Track looks a certainty to be in the Heavy range so worth keeping an eye on other races to see how it all unfolds.


Key Runners

1. Nature Strip – Has been well backed in betting since the barrier draw. The obvious leader with McDonald who has gotten the very best out of the Strip. Hasn’t won two races in a row in nearly two years. Goes from 1000-1200. I just can’t get it anywhere near $3.50 and if it stays there, I’ll be laying. If you’re running down Nature Strip, you’re winning the race. And I reckon a few can.

2. Pierata – Puntingform with him so have to respect it. Was ok in the Galaxy, very good late. The map just looks so important here. If it does settle midfield in striking distance it will storm home, but can it find a spot there early? Watch betting.

3. Santa Ana Lane – Hasn’t won a race since this exact race last year. It’s definitely in the price range you want to back Santa in and Tim Clark is going well. Won’t run a bad race but can it win? Would prefer others and am comfortable not taking a position on it.

7. Bivouac – The barrier just proved too much at the Valley last start so have to forgive. Interesting to note this horse has been very heavily backed late the last three starts so watch out for the same here. Bowman sticks which I like. Should be able to get a prime spot here behind the leaders and work into the race at will. Proven on the heavy ground. Looks a great chance here.

13. Loving Gaby – Will be the 6th Group 1 race in a row it’s run in. Just keeps turning up. Restrictions unfortunately mean Craig Williams can’t ride Gaby and despite Boss getting the ride, I think that’s a slight negative. Wil need luck from the draw and can’t see it out sprinting some of the others.


Betting Strategy

I think there’s multiple ways you can play this race and you can easily make a case for half the field.

If you like Nature Strip, make sure you include Bivouac. It should get the run of the race here and looks big odds at anything above $5.50. However, ill be laying Nature Strip at anything below $5 and cheering on the field in what could be one of the great races we see for some time.

 LAY – Nature Strip at anything below $5 for 4 units.


Randwick Race 9 | Doncaster Mile 1600m | 5:15pm

Not the strongest Donny I’ve seen but it has presented some good betting opportunities.

Melody Belle is top tier and the class horse of the race, she got held up at Caulfield in the All-Star Mile and with clear going I could have seen her winning. The weight and the draw are the big question marks and if she was under $5’s I’d be scrapping her but she is currently $8.00 and that price has sparked my interest.

3yo Prince Fawaz profiles really well for mine coming off a close to peak performance against the derby favourite Castelvecchio. These lightweight 3yo’s always do well in this race and he has come up at $17+. He may be a rung below this lot but at that price, I’m more than happy to find out.


Betting Strategy

BACK – Melody Belle at $8 or higher for 1 unit.

BACK – Prince Fawaz at $15 or higher for 1 unit.

It’s one of the great weekends on the racing calendar with five Group 1s at Rosehill on Saturday headlined by the 2yo feature, the Golden Slipper. I’ve picked out two races which piqued my interest.

ROSEHILL RACE 5 | GEORGE RYDER STAKES 1500M | 3:05PM

For the first time in four years, we won’t see the mighty mare Winx lining up in this but there is still plenty of intrigue. At first view, I thought Te Akau Shark may have come up a little short but he was ultra-impressive winning the Chipping Norton last start.

Dan O’Sullivan was just as impressed, tweeting; “A moderate race pace prevented a more dominant win.”

With Dreamforce set to take it up again, the tempo could look very similar. The smaller field seems as though it will only give Te Akau Shark a closer platform to pounce from and win the same way. I see him winning even if he’s sitting last at the bend.

I also like Super Seth in the Head to Head market vs The Bostonian. This is not due to him being a far superior animal but I just have the honours leaning to the stronger miler of the two.

Super Seth was dominant fresh and then had to tough it out upfront, eyeballing Streets of Avalon second up in the Futurity. That race would have brought him on nicely for this one.

BACK – Te Akau Shark 3 units at $2 or higher

BACK – Super Seth H2H over The Bostonian 2 units at $1.8 or higher.


ROSEHILL RACE 7 | Golden Slipper 1200M | 4:30PM

There are a few form lines to consider coming into this and I think the market has got it pretty close to the mark with the top three.

Chasing a hat-trick, Farnan looks to be peaking at the right time and a performance like what he produced in the G2 Todman Stakes could see him winning this race, but crossing from 14 and the pressure he may encounter is a query for mine.

Blue Diamond winner Tagaloa’s form is hard to fault. It was ridden quietly in the same race as Farnan last start and it looked the perfect hit out before the Slipper as he powered through the line. He’s got the draw to win and seems the type that will love the pressure of a Slipper.

Minhaaj also represents a bit of value in this race. The figures suggest she may not be at the level of some of the others but I can’t go past the five-length demolition she served up, down the Flemington straight in just her second start.

Honourable mention to Hanseatic whose form is also hard to knock. It made ground from midfield in the Blue Diamond to go down by a head to Tagaloa. The issue here is he may be trapped a long way back in the pack or even drop out to last and have to circle them.

BACK – Tagaloa 2 units at $6 or higher.

BACK – Minhaaj 1 unit at $13 or higher.

Caulfield RACE 7 | ALL-STAR MILE 1600M | 4:45PM

The track is currently a Good 4 and the rail is out 6m. A bit of rain predicted tonight so I’d say it’s likely to be a Soft 5 – Soft 6 come tomorrow.


This looks to be a great race, with many winning chances but the two at the top of the market are there for good reason. I see Streets Of Avalon and Alligator Blood crossing from 10 and 11 to lead with Melody Belle and Kolding kicking up from the inside to sit just behind them.

With so many good horses drawing wide including the potential superstar Alligator Blood, I’ve found myself siding with the Kiwi mare Melody Belle. Tactics are going to play a huge role in this race and I see her getting the gun spot. Jockey Opie Bosson was brimming with confidence after the work she performed on Tuesday, saying;

“I just can’t get over the improvement in her from when I rode her last time until the gallop today.”

It seems a calculated prep from the in-form trainer Jamie Richards and he seems to be getting the timing spot on with his NZ visitors of late. I’m sure we will see plenty of improvement from her first-up third place performance behind Streets Of Avalon in the Futurity.

Honourable mention goes to the 3yo Western Australian visitor Superstorm who charged home late in the Guineas and will look a threat but will probably be dictated by the tempo after drawing poorly. I can’t knock 2019 Toorak and Cantala winner Fierce Impact either. He has come back well but is also likely to be three deep the trip.


Betting Strategy

As the $2.70 favourite in early markets, I can’t be with Alligator Blood at that price and think anything above $5 is a bet for Melody Belle.

BACK – Melody Belle at anything above $5.00 for 3 units

Randwick Race 3 | Reisling Stakes 1200m | 1:50pm

Couple of showers about. Hopefully around the Soft 6 mark. Look for horses to get a little off the fence and head right down the middle. On Randwick Guineas day, this should live up to be a great race.


Key Runners

1. Dame Giselle – Could be anything this horse and we’ll find out a fair bit in this race. Another jockey change which I don’t love despite it being K Mac. Golden Slipper is the grand final here, not this race. Is the wet track a problem? Maps to be near the front and could zoom away but I’d like the price to be a bit longer.

2. Mildred – Needs a strong showing here to enter the Golden Slipper. Potentially awkward map from barrier 9. Certainly a handy resume over the last six months. One to wait for in the market late.

3. See You Soon – Resuming after finishing 2nd last year in the Golden Gift behind Dame Giselle and didn’t have much luck either. It looks a definite winning chance in the race but I’m happy to leave it alone at the current odds.

4. Cellsabeel – Was lame last start which is sickening if you piled in at the $1.90 BSP. Only worry for mine is getting back and buried. Impossible to forget the performance back in January. Can she get back to that level? If she does, she wins.

5. Supreme Idea – Was scratched last week, feeling like this was better suited because of the weather which must be noted. Beat home Dame Giselle in the Lohnro and Tim Clark sticks. Will lead and give them something to chase. One to watch in the market.


Betting Strategy

Must be with Cellsabeel here to turn the tables on its last performance. It’s the reason we are getting the value price and I’m happy to back it to win.

BACK – Cellsabeel at anything above $3.30 for 2 units


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