Group Racing Tips: Expert Racing Previews

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Morphettville R7 3.55pm

Tab Classic (Robert Sangster Stakes) 1200m G1 F&M

G1 fillies & mares sprint won by some handy mares recently including Miracles Of Life, Secret Agenda, Shoals, Spright, plus the mighty Black Caviar in 2012.

Track

At the time of writing (Thursday night) the track is a Good 4. There is no rain forecast so the track should remain Good.

Historical Profiling (last 8 years)

  • 1st up (2), 2nd up (1), 3rd up (4), 5th up (1)
  • 14-day break (2), 21-day break (3), 28-day break (1), 42-day break (1), 63 day break (1)
  • Settled 1st (3), 6th (2), Settled 11th-13th (3)
  • 3yo (1), 4yo (4), 5yo (2), 6yo (1)
  • Barrier 6 (2), Barriers 10-16 (6)

Map

Sisstar should lead comfortably, and that has been a successful winning position historically. Night Raid, Paul’s Regret and Mizzy from the good gate all race handy. Not a lot of speed in this race with a lot of backmarkers engaged, which does help Sisstar.

Key Chances

1) Flit

Talented mare on her day who has only been beaten 3.5-3.9L in 2 strong G1s last 2 starts. Has a powerful finish and can figure here

2) Mizzy

Is racing consistently well, with 2nds in the G1 Canterbury Stakes & Coolmore Classic this prep. Maps nicely on paper, but inside gate and close not historically an advantage here, and risking her with the jockey.

3) Subpoenaed

Won the Millie Fox G2 first up, then wide no cover in the G1 Coolmore. 1400m is her ideal distance but she has a strong finish if she can settle close enough

4) Pretty Brazen

Was a solid 3rd first up, then pulled up with a poor recovery second up. Another who prefers 1400m but maps close enough to figure here

6) Brooklyn Hustle

Has zero luck this prep. Nearly won the Oakleigh Plate first up, then held up in both the Newmarket & the William Reid. Gets a long way back and a couple of negative gear changes here but if she runs up to her previous performances she will go close

8) Sisstar

Racing in great form with two strong wins this prep. Maps to get a nice soft lead which is a big advantage. The big query is whether she can run 1200m, with all her 6 wins all coming between 955m-1100m, and her only 1200m test being a failure. She did reef and pull last start but still ran out the 1100m, and if she can settle better with a soft lead it is possible

Summary

Very tricky race. The classier horses don’t map ideally or have distance queries, whilst the rest just aren’t genuine G1 horses. I’m backing class over map/profile with smallish stakes as all runners are double figure odds.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Flit for 0.3 units

BACK (WIN) — Subpoenaed for 0.3 units

BACK (WIN) — Pretty Brazen for 0.3 units

BACK (WIN) — Brooklyn Hustle for 0.3 units

BACK (WIN) — Sisstar for 0.3 units

Morphettville R5 2.35pm

Queen Of The South Stakes 1600m G2 3YO+ F&M

Won in recent years by Shrouded In Mist, Music Bay, French Emotion and Amelie’s Star.

Track

At time of writing (Thursday night) the track is a Good 4. There is no rain forecast so the track should remain Good.

Historical Profiling (last 9 years)

  • 3rd up (2), 4th up (4), 5th up (3)
  • 7-day break (1), 11-14 day break (6), 21 day break (2)
  • Leader (4), Settled 6th-12th (4)
  • Barrier 3 (2), Barrier 5-8 (4), Barrier 10-12 (3)
  • 3yo (2), 4yo (2), 5yo (3), 6yo (2)

Map

A fair bit of speed engaged here. Fabric should lead with Dazzling Damsel, Thousand Wishes and In Good Health handy. Soaring Eagle and Echo Boomer should be midfield, with the rest of the field backmarkers.

Key Chances

1) In Good Health

Is the best mare in the race, but coming off a 43 day break and an inside barrier which are disadvantages here

2) Fabric

Handy mare who ran well first up. Strong jockey/trainer combo and her on pace pattern is an advantage here. Is second up off a 1200m first up run however.

4) Thousand Wishes

Strong win at Caulfield last start. 3rd up off a 2 week break with a strong trainer/jcokey cmbo, midfield draw and on pace pattern are all big positives here.

10) Don’ttelltheboss

Got back and ran home strongly for an unlucky 2nd behind Thousand Wishes last start over 1400m. The mile is a slight query.

Summary

Thousand Wishes ticks a lot of boxes from a historical profiling perspective for this race.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) — Thousand Wishes for 0.9 units EW

BACK (WIN) — Don’ttelltheboss 0.2 units

Hawkesbury R7 3.25pm

Hawkesbury Guineas 1400m G3 3YO

Won in recent years by Military Zone, Sambro, Shazee Lee, Spill The Beans and Chautauqua.

Track

At time of writing (Thursday night) the track is a Good 4. There is no rain forecast so the track should remain Good.

Historical Profiling (last 7 years)

  • 1st up (1), 2nd up (2), 3rd up (1), 4th up (2), 6th up (1)
  • 14-17 day break (3), 21 day break (3), 42 day break (1)
  • Settled 1st (1), Settled 5th-6th (3), Settled 11th-14th (2)
  • Barrier 2-3 (2), Barrier 5-6 (2), Barrier 9-14 (3)

Map

Plenty of speed engaged with Elssberg and Onchao likely to take up the running. Calgary Queen, Exoboom, Holyfield and Elizabeel should all settle handy. This could help the swoopers such as Acrophobic, Aim & Rainbow Connection.

Key Chances

2) Aim

Won the Magic Millions 3yo second up last prep. Was ok first up in a much stronger race. Can’t discount.

3) Ellsberg

Led all the way first up in the South Pacific Classic and trounced them. Stable can get them ready first up and then have them regress second up, particularly from a betting perspective after a peak first up performance. Going to risk him at the even money quote

4) Acrophobic

Blinkers come on here which could be a big plus for this horse. Measured up last prep around the likes of Peltzer and Prime Star. Is up to this

5) Rainbow Connection

Is a talented gelding who won on debut for Trial Spy members at double figure odds, and hasn’t had much luck the past two starts but has finished strongly for 3rd. Easily capable of winning this

10) Elizabeel

Les and run down late last week into 2nd in the JB Carr. On the quick back up here.

11) Calgary Queen

Is well up in grade, but trained on the track and had no luck last start posted 3 wide no cover when 2nd. Just keeps improving with each run.

Summary

Happy to bet around Ellsberg given the trainer profile and even money quote. Rainbow Connection looks like a strong chance here as the key danger. Acrophobic I expect will run very well with the blinkers on here, and Aim cannot be discounted.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Rainbow Connection to win for 1 unit

BACK (WIN) — Acrophobic to win for 0.7 units

BACK (WIN) — Aim to win for 0.3 units

Hawkesbury R5 2.10pm

Hawkesbury Crown 1300m G3 F&M

Won in recent years by Irithea, Pecans, Shillelagh, Nancy & Aerobatics.

Track

At time of writing (Thursday night) the track is a Good 4. There is no rain forecast so the track should remain Good.

Historical Profiling (last 7 years)

  • 1st up (2), 2nd up (2), 4th up (3)
  • 14-day break (4), 21 day break (1), 49 day break (1), 121 day break(1)
  • Settled 1-3 (4), Settled 6th-10th (2)
  • Barrier 3-4 (2), Barrier 6-10 (5)
  • 4yo (4), 5yo (3)

Map

Irithea, Sweet Deal and Athiri are the 3 most likely to be up on speed, which can prove advantageous in this race. Horses like Alison Of Tuffy, She Shao Fly, Akari & Wandabaa should settle midfield.

Key Chances

1) Reelem In Ruby

Has been solid this prep in 3 runs since coming back from a year layoff. Isn’t reaching the ratings she has previously, but is high quality on her day and the trainer has won this race 3 of the past 6 runnings.

2) Sweet Deal

Got a long way further back than usual last start but ran home well only beaten 1L. Gets Nash back on board who is her favourite rider, and a dry track. Looks a strong chance

4) She Shao Fly

Certainly has the talent to win a race like this. Was just ok first up and although the step up in trip suits, might need one more run at least before hitting her peak.

5) Athiri

Handy mare who trialled well at Hawkesbury over 1000m winning by 3.5L +5.3/+7.4 closing sectional. 2 wins and 2 placings last 4 starts in black type grade. Rates well but is first up here.

8) Wandabaa

Is racing consistently well this prep and does find a winnable race here. Include

9) Jen Rules

Trainer has a strong record in this race and she has been slowly working her way towards her best form this prep.

12) Air To Air

Gets a long way back which makes it hard for her to win races, but hasn’t been beaten far her past two starts in good company.

Summary

Sweet Deal and Wandabaa are the two I have rated on top, to beat the favourite Athiri. However not enough confidence in the race to invest at the current market prices.

Betting Strategy

No Bet.


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 165.70

Total Units Returned: 197.80

ROI: 19.37%


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