Group Racing Tips: Expert Racing Previews

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Eagle Farm R8 3.58pm | 1400m G1 WFA F&M

The last G1 of the Australian racing season, and always an intriguing race with a capacity 17-horse field.

Track

At the time of writing (Thursday night), the track is a Good 4. A Good 4 at Eagle Farm is like running on a rock-hard cement road. Many horses jar up or don’t let down properly on the track (and often bounce back as nice-priced winners at their next start). However, there is 2-8mm forecast to drop on Friday, and then 10-20mm predicted to fall on Saturday.

For many tracks that could spell a very wet track, but at Eagle Farm, depending on the rainfall and winds, it could just take the edge off it. It often means the track is shifty directly underfoot, but still hard underneath, so horses who like a greasy track, but don’t want it bottomless, are suited.

They have been swooping out wide at Eagle Farm in recent meetings and expecting the same here by the time this race is run, but as always monitor the pattern through the day.

Historical Profiling (last 7 years)

  • 1st up (0), 2nd up (2), 3rd up (1), 4th up (1) 5th up (2), 9th up (1)
  • 14-day break (7)
  • Settled 1st-3rd (3), Settled 4th-9th (4)
  • 3yo (1), 4yo (3), 5yo (2), 6yo (1)

Pretty simple formula to narrow down the chances in this race and find the winner historically. Horses coming off a 14-day break (usually out of the Dane Ripper) have won all of the past 7 editions, and they usually ran well and had a high weight in that lead-up race (59kg), and then came back and relished the WFA conditions of this event.

Also interesting to note that despite the big field and wide expanses of the Eagle Farm track, the winners have come from those settling in the first half of the field.

Map

No mad leaders in this race but the likes of Dame Giselle, Savatiano, Sweet Deal, Mizzy, Lyre, Reelem In Ruby, Odeum, Tofane and Flit are all likely to be in that first half of the field which historically is where you want to be.

Key Chances

1) Tofane

Won the Stradbroke last start which is clearly the premier form race for this. Williams sticks, drawn out, can settle on the better side of midfield, and is clearly the one to beat.

2) Savatiano

Coming off a 28-day break which isn’t typically ideal, but did that in this race last year also and ran 3rd only beaten half a length. Won the G1 Canterbury Stakes and a nose 2nd in the G1 All Aged Stakes before pulling up lame in the Kingsford-Smith. Will appreciate the rain that will come in the next couple of days. Can’t discount.

3) Mizzy

Positive trainer/jockey change but coming off a 56-day break after being sold and having last start before heading to the breeding barn. Couldn’t discount on 2 close G1 2nds this prep, but doesn’t profile ideally here.

4) Flit

Always been a fan of the horse and the cut out of the ground helps, but hasn’t been racing at her best this prep albeit has been unlucky in a couple of G1 performances when should have finished a lot closer. Not out of it but doesn’t profile ideally.

5) Madam Rouge

Ran a nose 2nd in the Stradbroke Handicap last year, and was a good 3rd only beaten 0.5L in the Dane Ripper last start. Interesting that Bowman has hopped off her to ride Subpoenaed as would be a lot keener had that not occurred.

6) Sweet Deal

She runs best for Nash Rawiller, and with him not riding here happy to risk her.

7) Brooklyn Hustle

Won the Dane Ripper which is great form for this historically, but the negative rider change, trainer and map position have me risking her here.

8) Subpoenaed

Ran 5th in the Stradbroke beaten 1.8L and was 2nd in the G1 Robert Sangster the start before. Flying and Bowman hops aboard which is a positive jockey change. Inside gate and backmarker not ideal however.

16) Odeum

Found this filly early when she won the G1 Thousand Guineas for us in the Spring. Raced 4 wide first up and was 2nd beaten 0.4L in the Dane Ripper when carrying 58kg as a filly. 3yo fillies have a great record this race (won 3 from the past 9), James McDonald aboard and she ticks all the boxes. Big chance.

17) Dame Giselle

Does tick a number of boxes being a 3yo filly, on pacer, and was only beaten 1.6L in the Dane Ripper last start. She lacks the class of some but just can’t discount on profiling.

18) Sierra Sue

Only beaten 2.4L in the Dane Ripper when carrying 58kg after racing wide. Has talent and can be the surprise knockout with blinkers first time.

Summary

Tofane and Odeum rate clearly on top on my ratings and historical profiling. Getting a nice price for both to bet confidently.

Madam Rouge the genuine knockout at double-figure odds. Give some chance to the likes of Savatiano, Subpoenaed, Dame Giselle and Sierra Sue, but happy to pass on them given the current market prices.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Tofane for 1.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Odeum for 1.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Madam Rouge for 0.5 units


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 169.20

Total Units Returned: 203.46

ROI: 20.25%


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