Group Racing Tips: Expert Racing Previews

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Rosehill R8 5.40pm 1100m LR

Won in recent years by some handy sprinters including Invincible Start, Egyptian Symbol, Kuro and Our Boy Malachi

Track

At time of writing on Thursday night the track is a Good 3, with no rain and very hot weather (39 degrees) forecast. Should be a hard Good 3 track.

Historical Profiling (last 7 years)

  • 1st up (2), 2nd up (2), 3rd up (2), 6th up (1)
  • 14 days (2), 21-28 day break (3), 140-161 day break (2)
  • 4yo (1), 5yo (3), 6yo (2), 8yo (1)
  • 6 of past 7 winners settled in the first 3

Map

Villami will look to lead from the wide gate. Spaceboy and Snitz will push forward from their inside gates. These three should set a strong tempo. Invictus Salute and Varda will get nice runs just behind them. In spite of the strong tempo, this race favours on pacers, and the rock hard track could make it hard for them to run on from further back.

Key Chances

1) Viridine
Handy sprinter who last prep won 3 from his last 4 starts. Rates well here.

11) Villami
Handy mare with form around some G1 gallopers. Can lead all the way.

12) Invictus Salute
Won nicely last start. Can repeat here.

14) Varda
Building a good record. Prefers it wet but can take this out.

4) Snitz
Won first-up last prep with Rawiller aboard. Danger.


Summary

Keen to invest a strategy around the on-pacers in this race given the history and expected rock hard track.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Villami for 1 unit (SCRATCHED)

BACK (WIN) — Invictus Salute for 1 unit

BACK (WIN) — Varda for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Snitz for 0.5 units

Doomben R9 6.25pm 1200m LR

Won in recent years by the likes of Manicure, Miss Fabulass and Brook Road.

Track

At time of writing on Thursday night, the track is a Soft 5. With minimal rain forecast, it should be a perfect Good 4 surface on raceday.

Historical Profiling (last 8 years)

  • 1st up (4), 3rd up (2), 4th up (1), 5th up (1)
  • 21 day break (2), 28 day break (2), 119-133 days (3), 252 days (1)
  • Age 4yo (5), 5yo (1), 6yo (1), 7yo (1)
  • 5 winners settled in the top 3, 3 winners settled 9th to 13th
  • 55.5kg (7), 58.5kg (1)

Map

Jami Lady and Gypsy Toff will push forward from midfield gates, whilst Niedorp and Epic Girl will try to cross from wider gates. Blazing Miss should push up from its rails gate also. There looks to be sufficient speed engaged from a variety of gates in this large field to ensure a strong tempo.

Key Chances

1) Krone
Poor first-up last prep then big run 2nd up when a close 2nd in Listed grade at this track. Can bounce back off a poor first-up run here.

2) Jadentom
Absolutely flying this prep. Has to rate a strong chance on those performances.

4) Jami Lady
Disappointed first up but bolted in this trip/class last prep. Strong chance if finds last prep’s form.

9) River Bird
First run for new trainer. G3 placed at Rosehill earlier this year. Can win this at odds first-up.

11) Niedorp
Has numerous black-type placings and is racing in strong form this prep.

12) Spirits Choice
Started favourite in this race last year and was a solid 4th. Can surprise.

21) Sally’s Day
Ticks a lot of boxes in the historical profile being a 4yo mare with 55.5kg, running first up (for a noted first-up trainer). Can measure up here.


Summary

Can make a case for a number of runners, but have the below as the best value against my ratings.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Krone for 0.3 units

BACK (WIN) — Jami Lady for 0.3 units

BACK (WIN) — River Bird for 0.3 units

BACK (WIN) — Niedorp for 0.3 units

BACK (WIN) — Sally’s Day for 0.3 units


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 90.60

Total Units Returned: 99.12

ROI: 9.41%


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