Group Racing Tips: Expert Racing Previews

Randwick R7 5.05 pm Surround Stakes 1400m G1 3YOF

Won in recent years by high quality G1 fillies including Probabeel, Nakeeta Jane & Shoals.

Track

At the time of writing on Thursday, the track is a Soft 7. There isn’t a lot of rain forecast until Saturday, so it could end up anywhere between a Soft 5 and a Soft 7.

Map

All Stardom should lead here with Tagaloa pushing forward to sit outside. Portland Sky and Aysar won’t be too far away, whilst Dickin Medal and Zion should settle out the back.

Historical Profiling (last 5 years)

• 1^st up (2), 2^nd up (2), 3rd up (1)
• 14-35 days break (3), 91-105 days break (2)
• Barriers 1-6 (5)
• Settled 1^st-2nd (2). Settled 6^th-9^th (3)
• Last 4 winners were all G1 mile winners/placed previous prep

Key Chances

1) Montefilia

On an Oaks trail so unlikely to be wound up for this. However won the G1 Flight Stakes last prep, handles the wet and good stayers can sprint well fresh, so can figure

2) Away Game

Iron Filly with over $3m in the bank. Handles the wet, but best performances are over 1200m. Never runs a bad race but might find the last 100m a test. Risking

3) Dame Giselle

Performed very well last prep but was a shade disappointing first up in a race where there’s some question marks over the form. Rates well and will be peaking for this but not convinced she’s going as well as last prep.

4) Every Rose

Speedy filly who impressed leading all the way first up. 1400m is a query

5) Hungry Heart

Ran a close 2^nd in the Flight Stakes last prep and was a solid 7^th first up only beaten 2.25L. Has the right profile to win this race.

6) Forbidden Love

Won impressively first up and then disappointed on the Gold Coast. Generally considered a length or two of the best fillies but ran a close 3^rd in the G1 Empire Rose over 1600m last prep and on that run profiles well for this.

7) Never Talk

Flew home for 2^nd last start which was the run of the race. Hasn’t run past 1200m yet and trainer has a terrible recent G1 record.

8) Vangelic

Ran 3^rd in the Flight Stakes last prep which is always a good pointer for this race. Disappointed first up but was only beaten 2.8L. Can’t discount here

9) La Mexicana

Consistent type from Melbourne with 5 wins and 2 placings from 7 starts. Ratings and map put her in the mix

11) Elizabeel

Was a solid 4^th first up in the Light Fingers. Will be thereabouts again

13) Philizzy

Underrated filly with a lot more talent than appears. Had no luck first up when probably should have won, then didn’t have much luck in the Light Fingers only beaten 3L. Just doesn’t seem to ever get a top jockey on her to show her best but can figure at 100/1

14) Love Sensation

Another underrated filly who measures right up to this grade only beaten beaten 2L or less twice in strong company. Won’t be far away at 50/1.

15) Miravalle

Talented filly who can sprint well fresh. Hard to know what to make of her here as likely on an Oaks trail, but can figure

Summary

Very tricky and open race. Honestly wouldn’t be a shock if any of a dozen horses won. Difficult to formulate a confident betting strategy this early without knowing the track conditions and track pattern.

I have a leaning to Hungry Heart and Vangelic both at double-figure odds so backing a few roughies for a small outlay but potential nice collect.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Hungry Heart for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Vangelic for 0.3 units

BACK (WIN) — Philizzy for 0.1 units

BACK (WIN) — Love Sensation for 0.1 units

Flemington R9 5.20 pm Francis Tressady Stakes 1400m G3 F&M

Won in recent years by the likes of Sylvia’s Mother, Oregon’s Day and Flippant.

Track

At the time of writing on Thursday morning, the track is a Good 4. Should stay in the range in raceday.

Historical Profiling (last 9 years)

• 1^st up (4), 2^nd up (1), 3rd up (2), 5^th up (1), 8th up (1)
• 7 day break (2), 14-15 day break (2), 21 day break (1), 71-136 day break (4)
• 4yo (7), 5yo (2)
• Drew inside barrier 6 (6), Drew 8-10 (3)
• All of past 8 winners settled in the first 6

Map

The map has proven important in this race historically with the winner always settling in the top 6. Does look to be a bit of speed here. Greysful Glamour should lead. Mamzelle Tess, Shout The Bar, Snapdancer, Need New Friends and Paul’s Regret are the other likely on pacers.

Key Chances

1) Shout The Bar

Dual G1 winner, who won the G1 Empire Rose for us at $32 BFSP in the Spring. Targeting the All Star Mile so expect her to be wound up for this first up. Right in it.

2) Greysful Glamour

Handy mare who needs it bone dry. Has won in this grade first up previously.

3) Mamzelle Tess

Always races well this track/distance but is an older mare

6) In Good Health

First up so may get too far back but can figure fresh

8) Snapdancer

Is racing consistently well and rates solidly again here

11) Chaillot

Quality lightly raced mare who is up to winning this first up. Gets a long way back which is a negative for this race.

14) Need New Friends

Consistent type who maps nicely enough and doesn’t run a bad race. In the mix.

Summary

Looking for the on pacers here. Shout The Bar rates on top, with Greysful Glamour and Snapdancer also profiling strongly for this.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Shout the Bar for 0.6 units

BACK (WIN) — Greysful Glamour for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Snapdancer for 0.4 units