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Moonee Valley | Race 7 | Saturday 3.45pm
2040m G2 3YO SW

A key leadup to the VRC Derby, although no winner has won the VRC Derby in the past 10 years, but two 3rd placegetters and a 5th placegetter have gone on to win the Derby at their next start. Won in recent years by the likes of Cherry Tortoni, Aloisia, Jameka, Super Cool & Manawanui.


At time of writing on Thursday night the track is a Good 4. Will most likely end up a Soft 5 based on expected overnight rainfall.

Historical Profiling (10 years)

  • 14-day break (9), 10-day break (1)
  • 3rd up (2), 4th up (4), 5th up (3), 6th up (1)
  • 6 favourites have won. 9 winners SP $9 or under. 1 at $51
  • 8 3yo fillies have run for 2 winners and 2 placegetters
  • Geldings (5), Colts (3), Fillies (2)
  • Lead Up Race: Spring Champion (2), Caulfield Guineas (4), Hill Smith Stakes (1), Thousand Guineas (2), RB82 (1)
  • All winners between 4 to 8 career starts, in at least their second prep


Looks like a reasonable speed here with Sharper likely to lead, whilst Samarkand, Achira, Commander Harry & Patton are likely to take handy positions. Swoopers have a good record in this race, so every runner should get its chance over the 2040m.

Key Chances

1) Forgot You

Won two starts in a row at this track including the G2 Stutt Stakes over 1600m finishing strongly, then had to go well back to near last in the Caulfield Guineas from the wide gate but flew home for 6th beaten only 3L. Is the class runner of the field and the one to beat

3) Jungle Magnate

Mick Price trained gelding by his Derby winning colt Tarzino. Ran a solid 2nd in the Hill Stakes last start after overracing for much of the race. H Bowman aboard

5) Patton

Rock hard fit having 5 runs this campaign, running 5th in the Gloaming then 8th in the Spring Champion. Doesn’t have the class of others but can stick on and give a sight

6) Cheerful Moment

Was an unlucky 3rd in The Shorts first up. Ran 3rd in this race last year. Has beaten Nature Strip 3 times. Quality sprinter. 2nd up here which from a profiling perspective isn’t ideal, and inside draw could be an issue on a wet Randwick by this time of day. 1000m-1100m his ideal distance. Another who can win and could be worth saving on.

11) Samarkand

Had 3 runs in NZ in prep for this and then was an on 3rd at Moe last start when raced keenly outside the leader. Lacks some class but trained by the master M Baker so can’t entirely discount

13) Achira

Ran 3rd in the Clarendon Stakes behind Gleneagles (4th in Run To The Rose behind Anamoe) and Hoover Lucy (2nd beaten a head at black type level next start). Ran 2nd in maiden first up despite racing wide no cover to Von Trapp (4th G2 Tea Rose) and Thousand Years 3rd (won next start and highly regarded). Won Goulburn maiden last start over the mile running the 3rd quickest last 400m of the day. 5th and 6th horses were metro placed next start. Failed in the Caulfield Guineas but was on pace in a race with strong speed won by the backmarkers. This stable did get a 200/1 winner of the VRC Oaks a few years ago. Can surprise at odds

14) Blackcomb

Ran 2nd to Rhinoceros at Sandown then 2nd to Barb Raider at Flemington. Was an unlucky 5th in the Hill Smith Stakes when didn’t get clear running as favourite. Trained by Danny O’Brien and can certainly win here


Forgot You the one to beat, but very skinny at odds on currently, so going to bet around him. Blackcomb profiles nicely for the race. Jungle Magnate, Samarkand and Achira the best roughies.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Blackcomb for 0.7 units

BACK (WIN) — Achira for 0.3 units

BACK (WIN) — Jungle Magnate for 0.3 units

BACK (WIN) — Samarkand for 0.2 units

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 216.70

Total Units Returned: 259.37

ROI: 19.69%

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