Betfair Insider: Today’s Horse Racing Tips

The Betfair Insider is the resident Exchange expert and the go-to for today’s horse racing tips. He provides commentary, opinion and educates on all things Thoroughbred racing. Check out the Betfair Hub and the Betfair Exchange for the latest odds.

A huge day of racing this Saturday highlighted by the first Group One of the season in Melbourne, the Memsie Stakes. Littered with a couple of challenging races, I’ve found one that I’m comfortable having a play in at the current price.

Plenty of wind about so we may see the track improve to a Good 4. The rail is in the true position.

Caulfield Race 5 | 2000m | 2:10pm

There are some quality stayers looking to come to hand quickly in this and whilst I agree a few have strong claims, I think it may be the in-form Kiwi Polly Grey’s turn this week. This Group Two-placed mare has been super without a lot of luck since transferring to the Waller stable here in Aus.

Latest outing at the Valley she jumped pretty well but as a consequence of a solid early pace she was caught wide with no cover, eventually moving up to settle third she went on to claw back the tearaway leaders. She actually ducked in at around the 200m mark and I think if she straightened up a little better, she probably would have held off Mahamedeis.

The run before that at Flemington she jumped about midfield but the first 600m was done at a crawl and she got squeezed back, preceding to over-race little. Working into it once again on the final bend she hit a backside and was very near last at the top of the straight. Finally, she went on to find some space and go through her gears nicely to only go down a by 1.7L 5th.

She draws well in this and is due a bit of fortune. With the residual fitness, she should be at her peak for this and the dangers as previously mentioned would want to of come to hand quickly to beat her.

Orderofthegarter has been freshened and was superb off a long lay off last time in. Schabau has bigger fish to fry but certainly wouldn’t surprise and Young Rascal was first up fav winning the Manion Cup in March over 2400m, a market move would worry me.

Betting Strategy

I’m comfortable at the 5’s but have a feeling she may drift a little tomorrow.

BACK (EW) — Polly Grey for 2 units

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