EXPERT RACING TIPS: FLEMINGTON

FLEMINGTON PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAY OCTOBER 5TH 2024

Betting Strategy

Moby Dick should be odds on if he repeats his first-up performance, the figure was brilliant and the late splits were great, the only niggle for me is he ran clearly the fastest closing splits of the meeting (only horse to break 12s L200m all day) but did get first look of a quickly deteriorating track but he may well get the same conditions again.

Betting Strategy

LAY: 2. Rumble Town (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $7.00)

I’m surprised to see Rumble Town favourite, the jumpouts were solid enough but I thought he’d fit in as a $7 chance in this race, I thought Price Tag would be favourite off some good Freedman jumpouts and Zahra going on is a push and second-favourite for mine is Tremonti, the Sydney trial was good and I love that he will find the lead and the rail from one.

Jackson Oldham

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Betting Strategy

A tricky race and one of the ones I’m most keen to leave alone on the program. Sergeant Major hit the line and ran a number to say he was a proper horse first-up 1200m MV, he ran a 86 on the FormKing ratings, which is well clear of anything in this race, he went sharply up in class at Caulfield and was well supported but ran poorly, he is clearly the best horse but 1400-1800 and gate one at $3 doesn’t appeal. Giddy Up Warrior ran the best of the on-pacers in the Derby trial and has had the run at 1800m in a fast race which I like.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 4. Declichy Boulevard (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $1.99)

Declichy Boulevard was well supported coming through a strong form reference in Sydney the start prior, went back off a slow lead speed and overraced badly, she still managed to rip home 5.4L better than average last 400m, suited up in trip on a bigger track.

Jackson Oldham

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Betting Strategy

BACK: 8. Lofty Arch (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $16.00)

I don’t have any strong opinions at the pointy end of the market, I backed First Settler to beat Growing Empire last start, feels strange to not butter up but gate one for a horse who is likely to be midfield at best feels sticky, If we get a sighter with R1/R2 that inside looks best I’ll get involved. Reserve Bank has upside galore but ran almost an identical first-up number to Lofty Arch, who will be map positive also and one was $4 and the other was $41 in early betting.

Jackson Oldham

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Betting Strategy

BACK: 7. Von Hauke (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $5.00 )

Von Hauke is a easy bet here, first-up he was made to sprint very quickly off a slow tempo over 1100m which isn’t his go but he warmed up really nicely late. Second-up this track/trip last preparation he sat close to the speed and ran over the top of Amenable. Second-up the prep prior again this track/trip he was ridden dead and charged late, should be further forward here with Lane.

Royal Champion is interesting and I’ll love to see what the late Betfair market does with him. He has a big 121 timeform rating which wins this but that was over 2000m and all his ratings first-up off longer than 150-day spells have all been down vs his second-up runs. One QLD trial back in April suggests to me he’s been ticking over and should be forward in condition here, his first VIC trial was actually against Von Hauke, he looked outsped although it was fine work, the latest jumpout was sensational.

Jackson Oldham

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Betting Strategy

BACK: 16. Berkshire Breeze (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $3.40)

Berkshire Breeze ran two group class ratings at his last two victories then led up as a $1.5 favourite was “disappointing” in the sense he came off those ratings but it was all race shape dependent, despite leading he went 19L slower to the 800m than his previous two starts which took away his best asset of being able to outstay his rivals. He was back in an actual horse race last start but unfortunately was snicked back to last, had to make a 1000m run and still had the audacity to be coming on the line. Should be closer from the inside draw and I’m confident he’s better than this lot.

Jackson Oldham

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Betting Strategy

No groundbreaking opinion that is off market for me. Via Sistina is another of Wallers that wins a good race first-up then puts in a flat one second-up, I always give horses another chance failing second-up going from a slow pace first-up to a fast pace second-up too, if she keeps drifting and the track stays in the good range I’ll probably be forced to bet but I’m not steaming in off the long run to do so. No knocks Buckaroo, although I do think with the raceshape/best ground etc that the margin flattered him in the Underwood. Eliyass outside lead in a big field Flemington rail 9m, just doesn’t seem the set-up, although I concede that he is on an upwards spiral.

Betting Strategy

No opinion with the Friday morning scratching of the winner.

Betting Strategy

Mares races aren’t my go as a general rule and this is no exception, this looks all too hard. Skybird has never been one of mine but was outstanding first-up, the gate? Could be a positive or a negative by this point of the day, a few forecasts I’ve seen expect it to start bucketing down at 4pm, so gate 16 could be a blessing here. Revolutionary Miss looked like she was humming in her leading work for the new camp and ran a cracker first-up, Poifect is solid, the big improver is Seonee.

FLEMINGTON RACECOURSE