EXPERT RACING TIPS: BUNBURY

BUNBURY PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAY JULY 12TH 2025

Betting Strategy

Twisted Steel looks like a serious horse ($4.20 to $1.90 on debut) and you’d suspect if he gets through the ground he probably wins again. The map does look sticky with a stack of speed under him on a wet deck, but it might not be the end of the world to just sit 3 deep outside the speed (if it comes to that). Plenty to like about a lot of these triallers but do just feel like it’s a lot of guess work in these conditions. Will steer clear.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 7. Bartime (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $3.50)

If the rain comes as expected, then I’m happy to be with Bartime who clearly relished the conditions two starts ago. He should find the top with ease here and he’s clearly agreeing with Holly Watson. Like him off the 7 day spin here and a good swimming leader at Bunbury can be near impossible to get past. Marked him favourite. I feel like I have to save/make a smaller result on Cruise To Victory. I do think the horse in general is weak as piss, but his first up run was anything when 4 deep the trip in a funnily run race (God’s Gate winning with a sit?). Forget his ordinary second up record – he’s only newish to the yard and won off a 59 day break 2nd up at his first G&A Williams prep (doesn’t count for statistical reasons as break wasn’t long enough). Pike puts him in position A and he chases hard. Didn’t expect to see $5. Asphalt is the real X factor runner. I respect the margin of his maiden win, but I’d probably beat the second horse home on foot. Don’t know if he deserves such clear-cut favouritism off a maiden win? Will make this the major play race for the day.

BACK: 4. Cruise To Victory (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.80)

I feel like I have to save/make a smaller result on Cruise To Victory. I do think the horse in general is weak as piss, but his first up run was anything when 4 deep the trip in a funnily run race (God’s Gate winning with a sit?). Forget his ordinary second up record – he’s only newish to the yard and won off a 59 day break 2nd up at his first G&A Williams prep (doesn’t count for statistical reasons as break wasn’t long enough). Pike puts him in position A and he chases hard. Didn’t expect to see $5.

Betting Strategy

No idea. True Player goes around favourite, and you can see why. We’ve seen Amazing Cheat, Cherokee Miss & Major Mario come out to frank that form and he’s a young horse the stable like. Not convinced he’s any real star, but this isn’t deep. Famous Dain goes well back to 1690, but was really ordinary at his most recent, despite knowing the 2000 is too far. Alaskan appreciates being reunited with Chris Parnham while More Than Enuff was strong enough to the line behind Arcadia Park. I think the key for him is to put himself in the right spot early without being half a step slowly away and Brad Parnham having to ask him to find that spot. Both of Ash Maley’s can win. Not a race for me.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 2. Arcadia Park (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.60)

Only the 7 to do battle in the Aquanita, but it’s a cracking little field with two clear POD form lines. Elite Missile and Redback Flyer both come out of the main lead-up (Belmont Guineas) with Elite Missile winning that battle quite comfortably. It is worth noting though that Redback Flyer was off a freshen up (with the bars on) and ridden quietly. I’d expect him to be kicked out to probably lead this and the big loping fellow is a different horse from there. Still not sure how good he is, but he should be near his peak for this. Arcadia Park and Our Paladin Al come through the other major form reference. I really like what Arcadia Park has done this prep, with his 2 most recent efforts being really tough in a role I don’t think he’s overly suited too. He’ll be better with a sit, or a softer breeze and he gets that here. I don’t think he deserves to be on the fourth line of betting and he’ll get me small at that quote. Pike has options with Our Paladin Al. In a race devoid of speed does he pop forward to the breeze, or look to ride him cold? Big X factor with him. Not convinced I’m doing the right thing, but at the quotes, happy to back and save on that form line for a very small play.

BACK: 6. Our Paladin Al (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $3.60)

Pike has options with Our Paladin Al. In a race devoid of speed does he pop forward to the breeze, or look to ride him cold? Big X factor with him. Not convinced I’m doing the right thing, but at the quotes, happy to back and save on that form line for a very small play.

Betting Strategy

Lord Shiva leads. Desert Whisper lands in the breeze. And Want A Winner stalks that pair. In theory, that should just about be the race. I’m not overly convinced on any of the three, and the market has cleared out in a manner that does make sense. Is Lord Shiva up to this level with proper pressure in the breeze (not completely impossible Desert Whisper crosses)? Can Desert Whisper sit in the breeze and get the job done as effectively as finding the fence? Why is Want A Winner back to 1000? To me, he looked like he wanted further if anything. Chasing the two speedsters is definitely a positive, but will one of them simply be too sharp for him over the 5 furlongs? Almost wanted to try get the 3 beaten but struggled to come up with a clear one to beat them. Will be very hard to get past sharp ones at a wet Bunbury 1000. Will probably have 10 cents on Under Influence if he drifts to $50+. He’s a prick of a horse to back, but he swims and the cheeky little cutaway in play may suit a horse who is drawn low and can’t go an inch early.

Betting Strategy

At the SW conditions, with the draw against a bunch of maiden winners, Fancy Red really should be winning. The big query (apart from the obvious conditions), is how will she go at 2000? After going well enough at the mile, she was quite notably ripped back to the 1400 and has stuck there since. Do the camp query her ability to run a mile, let alone 2000? I think she’ll probably win, but odds on about anything with queries is a worry. Showlas is a really nice and under-rated horse. Loved her run behind the good ones in the Guineas at her most recent. Think she can find the breeze here and make the favourite stretch her neck. Kimberley Rose is a horse who is screaming out for the 2000. Problem is, she will probably be last and it’s so hard to win from there. Karsavina might be the blowout. Moved yards two starts ago and both runs have had a bit of merit about them. Low draw, how is the cutaway/inside by race 6?

Betting Strategy

BACK: 5. Bayezid (WIN & PLACE) for 2 units (Rated at $6.60)

Happy to back a pair of them here with Bayezid representing the better value of the two. I was very happy to see this bloke beaten at his most recent ($151), as I didn’t have a cent on, but was fully aware he was going better than his numerical form. He ran into a trio of up and comers that day and only one of them fought his way past him late. Yes, technically this is a higher grade, but is the race any deeper, or potentially even easier? Drops 3kg’s, should lead (can miss kicks – heart in mouths early) and I reckon he’s a proper 1200m horse, which is only something the camp have tried late in his career. Blinkers go back on (last time they were first applied, he won). Think he can give some cheek at the double figures. Sentimental Belle is a save @ $4+. She is a proper swimmer, and her recent trials were good enough. I’m always just wary on a horse who gets a heap of ratings points in a prep as they may not find that same level of form again, but the price is there for a Pike/Williams runner so I’m choiceless for a chop. Russian Sniper the blowout in the conditions.

BACK: 5. Bayezid (PLACE) for 2 units

Happy to back a pair of them here with Bayezid representing the better value of the two. I was very happy to see this bloke beaten at his most recent ($151), as I didn’t have a cent on, but was fully aware he was going better than his numerical form. He ran into a trio of up and comers that day and only one of them fought his way past him late. Yes, technically this is a higher grade, but is the race any deeper, or potentially even easier? Drops 3kg’s, should lead (can miss kicks – heart in mouths early) and I reckon he’s a proper 1200m horse, which is only something the camp have tried late in his career. Blinkers go back on (last time they were first applied, he won). Think he can give some cheek at the double figures. Sentimental Belle is a save @ $4+. She is a proper swimmer, and her recent trials were good enough. I’m always just wary on a horse who gets a heap of ratings points in a prep as they may not find that same level of form again, but the price is there for a Pike/Williams runner so I’m choiceless for a chop. Russian Sniper the blowout in the conditions.

BACK: 9. Sentimental Belle (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.70)

Sentimental Belle is a save @ $4+. She is a proper swimmer, and her recent trials were good enough. I’m always just wary on a horse who gets a heap of ratings points in a prep as they may not find that same level of form again, but the price is there for a Pike/Williams runner so I’m choiceless for a chop.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 3. Celebrity Prince (WIN & PLACE) for 3 units (Rated at $4.40)

They should go mad here with a stack of speed engaged and none of it having real fear factor (i.e I think they all stop). I thought the obvious get back pair were Supernatural and Celebrity Prince, with the back and save the plan pre-Supernatural plunge. Keep an eye on the price (marked her $2.7, currently $2.3) but with the quotes at the time of writing Celebrity Prince each way go has to be the play. There was very little between Celebrity and Super at their most recent, with the pair basically going to the line together. It’s a good push to see Clint stick with Celeb over Regal Statue and you know that she will definitely get through this ground and she is a 1400m winner in the past. Clint will need to make the right moves at the right time from the sticky draw, but I do think the leaders will be stopping late here. Supernatural is very likely to just keep getting backed. 3yo v the older horses, Pike on and gets in on the minimum. Deserves favouritism and at $3+ would have had a good lash. I dare say that price might be long gone unless a severe on speed pattern forms? En Plein Air maps nicely (1400?) as does Decoration who was a sneaky good run at his most recent. Just not sure if he’s sharp enough to beat these at 1400.

BACK: 3. Celebrity Prince (PLACE) for 3 units

They should go mad here with a stack of speed engaged and none of it having real fear factor (i.e I think they all stop). I thought the obvious get back pair were Supernatural and Celebrity Prince, with the back and save the plan pre-Supernatural plunge. Keep an eye on the price (marked her $2.7, currently $2.3) but with the quotes at the time of writing Celebrity Prince each way go has to be the play. There was very little between Celebrity and Super at their most recent, with the pair basically going to the line together. It’s a good push to see Clint stick with Celeb over Regal Statue and you know that she will definitely get through this ground and she is a 1400m winner in the past. Clint will need to make the right moves at the right time from the sticky draw, but I do think the leaders will be stopping late here. Supernatural is very likely to just keep getting backed. 3yo v the older horses, Pike on and gets in on the minimum. Deserves favouritism and at $3+ would have had a good lash. I dare say that price might be long gone unless a severe on speed pattern forms? En Plein Air maps nicely (1400?) as does Decoration who was a sneaky good run at his most recent. Just not sure if he’s sharp enough to beat these at 1400.