EXPERT RACING TIPS: BUNBURY

BUNBURY PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAY MARCH 8TH 2025

Betting Strategy

Wouldn’t surprise me if she steps in the $1.25 range (I’ve marked her that price in a 95% market). She’s going super, the rest can barely lift their legs. Unless she simply doesn’t turn up, the only way I see her being beaten is Success Play jumping to the top, kicking and she’s held up til very late. Should be winning softly.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 6. Manavendra (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.45)

While neither Manavendra nor Above The Peg really flattered a week ago, I do think that form reference is the pick of and I’m happy to play the race accordingly. Manavendra has had a habit of putting in a flat one second up in recent preps, so we’ll go back to his slashing first up run (unlucky up fence v Bunb Cup favourite Captain Pluto) as our point of reference. Has had plenty of goes in this grade and gone fairly well, but he’s never copped one this weak. Now or never. Above The Peg’s best form wins and wins this quite easily. He was reasonable on his Michael Lane debut, before being a bit flat a week ago. He loves 7 days, he’s racing at his new home deck and from experience, you can trust the Lane Train to get them right very quickly. Expecting big improvement. Here For Cheques is the current market elect, which I do understand and did probably anticipate. Has the winning form, but it feels like a real different level (beaten by Barra Mundy/Bambun Boy then fell in v Covert Rose?). No problems if it beats me @ ~$3. Really struggled to come at the rest.

BACK: 5. Above The Peg (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $3.60)

Above The Peg’s best form wins and wins this quite easily. He was reasonable on his Michael Lane debut, before being a bit flat a week ago. He loves 7 days, he’s racing at his new home deck and from experience, you can trust the Lane Train to get them right very quickly. Expecting big improvement.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 7. Brimstone (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.40)

Feel compelled to have something on Brimstone here. While he did fail on WA debut, it’s worth nothing he was a month between trial and run and the improvement second up, with some continuity, was quite incredible. Had it not been for the tiring Berbere shuffling him back through the field, he would have gone very close to winning. Ran the quickest L200 of that event behind Watch Me Rock (Pinjarra Classic favourite) and the under-rated Angel Undercover who nearly pinched the feature last week. This race has to be considered, considerably easier than that and there is no weight penalty, only relief from the Luke Campbell claim. May be one who jumps over his true price purely on SP profile? Holly Watson has only sat on Without Reg once and it was a career PB, knocking off Watch Me Rock (pre-blinkers). Liked the trial and maps softly – can run a race. No knock on the Fluro Neuro form. Raced against his usual pattern and won with something in hand. The slight query for me is the drop back to 1400 off 7 days and where he gets to in this map? May be forced to revert to his old tactics and be ridden quiet. Can he reel in Brimstone who will have a 6.5kg pull in the weights?

Betting Strategy

BACK: 2. Lonsdaleite (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.45)

Happy to bet on map here and trust that this race shapes nicely for backmarkers Lonsdaleite and Just Saint James to finish over the top of them. Lonsdaleite just looks like a more mature horse this time in. While he hasn’t won or placed at his last couple, the efforts were arguably as good as his winning efforts and this is considerably easier. Stuck deep most of the way, toughness isn’t an attribute we would have historically associated with this bloke, but to stick on and only be beaten 1.3L Watch Me Rock was superb. Is a winner at the deck and will be flooding late. Just Saint James is your favourite and rightly so. Didn’t like the drop back to 1000 after he won so dominantly at the 1200, this is the perfect setup for him. Made a mess of Cessation at their last couple of meetings and I see no reason why that doesn’t happen again. Have marked the pair $3.45 & $2.50, so will be looking to back and save with the bigger of the two differentials (which at the time of writing is Lonsdaleite).

BACK: 4. Just Saint James (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $2.50)

Just Saint James is your favourite and rightly so. Didn’t like the drop back to 1000 after he won so dominantly at the 1200, this is the perfect setup for him. Made a mess of Cessation at their last couple of meetings and I see no reason why that doesn’t happen again. Have marked the pair $3.45 & $2.50, so will be looking to back and save with the bigger of the two differentials (which at the time of writing is Lonsdaleite).

Betting Strategy

Market looks pretty right here. Loves Talking was super impressive winning on debut, when leading throughout. She should derive a stack of benefit from that and if you are on her, I suspect you’ll know your fate in the first couple of hundred – crosses to the fence and you might well be home. Doesn’t, and you’re probably cooked. My Authoritah put in a couple of those trials you hope only you see. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case. Looks the real deal. Searchin’ Times provides some X-factor. Loved both trials and we know how good her sister was.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 5. Barney’s World (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $4.00)

Not much went right for Barney’s World in his most recent prep. Was good first up when running into a rampant All Play (finished ahead of Norich), before he sat awkwardly deep the trip second up and was beaten under a length in a finish involved Playing Rio and Comic Hero. His prior preparation he knocked off Generosity and Capre Omnia in a race with a very similar shape to this. Love the fact Chris Parnham is on (apprentice rode last prep), this is a great map, and this is not deep at all. Happy to speculate on fresh. Scorpion Ruler and Brazen Bid look the dangers. Might be swayed into a Scorpion Ruler save if the fence is dynamite. Not sure if Jaz Session’s win @ $1.70 on Wednesday really franks the form though, as it was a proper scramble in job with a 10/10 steer. Brazen Bid was beaten 1.6L London’s Image two back at the same trip and drops 3kg’s. Just need to have on trust that he’s taken no ill-effects from his most recent disappointing performance. Fresh and back to 1100 might be the key?

Betting Strategy

BACK: 8. Watch Me Rock (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $1.90)

A nice simple race to do the form for, with 7 of the 8 clashing in the Pinjarra Classic a fortnight ago. I’m happy to go with the one who missed that event and expect Watch Me Rock to step up to this grade. He’s simply been a different horse since the shades went on (3 from 3) and while he may have only fallen in fresh, I don’t think the 1200m with weight was ever his go (and the market agreed – he was a big drifter from opening). Angel Undercover went on to prove that form is good, and I love him on the minimum up to 1400m here. Feels like the one on the up. Ice Pick Nick was the run of the race in the Pinjarra Classic. Draws a barrier to stalk your leader Man Crush here and I expect he can turn the tables on the rest of them, purely on map. Vast Art a big improver up to the 1400m.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 3. Antique Miss (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $3.50)

Antique Miss has been a very good horse to us this prep and as we step further out in trip, I see no reason why she can’t win again. The market likely falls away from her a bit this time as she does have to contend with the negative weight swings v most of her Detonator competitors, but I simply think she was too strong on the line for that to be a major issue. Rolls forward and I think either lands breeze or one-one. They’ll have to be tough to get past her. Own The Queen has lost trust with a lot of punters, but this does look a nice setup. Suspect Troy Turner will look for some cover here and may even find the back of Antique Miss? From that position, the 3kg in her favour from the Detonator, could be telling. Going to save on her. Plenty of respect for Captain Pluto, but as I alluded to last week, he is now 0 from 8 with Pike in the saddle and has been a beaten favourite at all 8. Can 100% win, but perhaps the market is over-rating his ability after the strength of his first up performances?

BACK: 13. Own The Queen (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $5.50)

Own The Queen has lost trust with a lot of punters, but this does look a nice setup. Suspect Troy Turner will look for some cover here and may even find the back of Antique Miss? From that position, the 3kg in her favour from the Detonator, could be telling. Going to save on her.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 5. Premium Girl (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.85)

Premium Girl and Essentric Nature will dominate this market, but I’m the other way around in regard to favouritism. Very simply, I think that Premium Girl might be the better horse. They will be in similar spots in running, there is good and weak enough tempo in this for them both to run on, but from what we’ve seen of their respective careers to date, forgetting market SP’s, I’ve been more impressed by Premium Girl. The maiden win against Prince Of Santos when she was never on the track. The C1 win from last against Cool Memory – usually these are the two cheap wins to kick off a career but her efforts were simply phenomenal. She was DQ’d for a year after getting some weight loss medication from Warney’s mum but as soon as her suspension ended, they were clearly ready to rock and roll. Recent win over Gigi Pops was super and that horse pushed Shmoov Moova last weekend (literally). If there was going to be a blowout then perhaps it’d be Correct Choice. He’s had his chances over a few preps though has never trialled as well as he did this time in. Might be in for a breakout prep.