Taking on Bookies’ Promotions: AFL Money Back Promos

Sportsbet AFL H2H Money Back Promotion

www.sportsbet.com.au

2015 Estimated Results: + $398

Promo Mechanic: Place a H2H bet on any match in rounds 1-8 and if your team leads at any break but lose get your money back up to $50.

Max Profit Strategy: Back (with Sportsbet) and Lay (with Betfair) the team you think will lose.

The Edge: If your team leads at any break and goes on to lose, you’ll get your stake back with Sportsbet and win your Lay bet with Betfair.

Key Considerations: Staking is very important here – you need to stake the correct amount on your Lay bet to optimise your advantage. Identifying teams that are likely to lead at a break and go onto lose can also help maximise your profitability.

EXample

Melbourne v Richmond. Sunday 24th April, 7:10pm EST

A)   Place a $50 bet on Melbourne at $2.05 with Sportsbet

B)   Place a $45.96 Lay bet on Melbourne at $2.28 with Betfair

If Melbourne lead at any break but lose the match:

A)   $0 position ($50 stake refunded due to result)

B)   $43.66 profit (45.96 Lay profit minus $2.30 with 5% exchange commission)

Result: $43.36 profit

If Melbourne fail to lead at any break and lose the match:

A)   $50 loss

B)  $43.66 profit (45.96 Lay profit minus $2.30 with 5% exchange commission)

Result: -$6.34

If Melbourne win the match:

A)   $52.50 profit

B)   $58.83 Lay loss

Result: -$6.33

How to Calculate the Lay amount

(Back Stake + Winnings) / (Lay Odds – Commission)

Back Stake = The amount you Back bet with the Corporate Bookmaker
Winnings = The amount you can win from your Back Bet. (Stake x Odds) – Stake
Lay Odds = Current Lay Odds available on Betfair for the same team
Commission = Percentage Commission expressed as a decimal. 5% = 0.05

Calculating Lay Amount on Melbourne Example

Corporate Bookmaker Back Odds: 2.05
Betfair Lay Odds: 2.28
= ($50 + [($50 x $2.05) – $50)] / ($2.28 – 0.05)
= $102.5 / $2.23
= $45.96

Results if applied to 2015 Rounds 1-8

• Total matches: 72
• Lead change games at breaks: 23
• That’s a total of 32% of matches from rounds 1-8 we can capitalise on

How we could have profited using some assumptions:

• Average profit where your selected team leads at a break & loses: $45.00
• Average loss when your team wins or failed to lead at a break and loses: $-4.00
• Total number of the 23 games that we successfully chose the right team:  14

Successful Cash Backs: 14 x $45.00 = + $630

Unsuccessful Cash Backs: 58 x $4.00 = – $232

Total Profit: $398