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AFL TRADE TALK: ROUND 11 TRADING STRATEGIES

Want to learn how to lay bet?

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When you place a lay bet, you are betting on something not to happen. Let’s think about the Melbourne Cup again. Remember: there can only be one winner. But what about the others trailing behind them? If you place a lay bet in a “Win” market, you can celebrate if the runner tails off at the back of the field.

KARL KALDAWI’S TRADING TIPS

Betting Strategy

LAY: Essendon Top 8 at up to $1.80

Essendon have six tricky games ahead of them and don’t have the greatest track record of finishing seasons strong. Richmond, Gold Coast, Carlton, West Coast, Collingwood and Melbourne. While you’d think Richmond and West Coast are easy beats, they have shown they’re capable of a scalp. The calibre of other teams is strong and if Essendon only win 3 of their next 6 games it could mean they’re out of the Top 8, despite being in the Top 4 right now.

2019 – 11-7 (6th) / 12-10 (8th) Lost 3 of last 4 and their first final to make it 4 of last 5
2020 – 5-2 (4th) / 6-10-1 (13th) Lost 8 of their last 10
2023 – 9-7 (6th) / 11-12 (10th) Lost 5 of last 7 with only 2 wins coming v North (7pts) and WCE (1pt) (Lost 4 by more than 10 goals)

LAY: Essendon to win a final in 2024

Essendon are currently very short for ‘winning a final in 2024’ market. There are plenty of variables in this market, the main one being, can Essendon even make the Finals in 2024 let alone win one? We’ll know a lot more in 6 weeks but currently, they’re short enough to lay given a hard run of games across the next 6 weeks and could look to trade and back if their price drifts.

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