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FEATURE PREVIEWS: RANDWICK GUINEAS

RANDWICK GUINEAS

Track: Randwick | Rail: 3m | Distance: 1600m | Conditions: 3YO SW | Track Conditions: Good 4 | Prizemoney: $1 million

Track should be in perfect order for Saturday.

A high quality G1 race won in recent years by topliners including The Autumn Sun, It’s A Dundeel, Shadow Hero, Converge, Lion’s Roar & Mosheen.

We have successfully backed Lion’s Roar at $19 BFSP and Converge at $7.50 BFSP to win this race in recent years.

HISTORICAL PROFILING (last 12 years)

2nd up (6), 3rd up (4), 4th up (2)

14-day break (12)

Leader (2), Settled 5th-13th (10)

Colts (6), Geldings (5), Fillies (1)

Generally best to settle midfield to back. Every winner has come from 14 days break off a good run in the traditional 1400m Rosehill Hobartville Stakes leadup. Fillies generally run well from limited attempts. Winners usually have proven they are up to G1 grade in the Spring.

Interestingly, on wet tracks, the winner of this race usually had a VRC Derby/Oaks run in the Spring.

SPEED MAP

Just an average speed expected here with Les Vampires leading Ganbare.

Encap and Celestial Legend need to avoid getting caught wide, with Cosmic Lad, Fukubana & Ceolwulf pushing up inside them.

Ducasse, Militarize and Tom Kitten out the back.

Café Millennium last.

KEY RUNNERS

1. Militarize – Sires Produce, Champagne Stakes & Golden Rose winner who was unlucky in the Cox Plate. Good run first up when 2nd to Fangirl. The one to beat.
2. Tom Kitten – Looking for 2000m, but two runs this prep have been solid and will be hitting the line hard late.
3. Celestial Legend – Bolted in to win the Hobartville Stakes which is the key leadup for this. Main danger.
4. Encap – Ran a close 2nd in the Golden Rose last prep. Sat 3 wide last start and ran a strong 2nd behind Celestial Legend last start. In the mix.
8. Ducasse – Talented horse who was excellent first up then terrible last start. Knockout hope if brought best form.
9. Ceolwulf – Was a solid run first up in the Hobartville. Can run into the placings.

 

DEAN EVANS’ SUMMARY

Again the market is fairly accurate here.

Militarize the clear horse to beat, and Celestial Legend the clear danger. Historical profiling suggest we should side with Celestial Legend who was very impressive last start.

DEAN EVANS’ TOP 5 SELECTIONS

1 – Militarize
3 – Celestial Legend
4 – Encap
2 – Tom Kitten
8 – Ducasse

BETTING STRATEGY

BACK: #3 Celestial Legend (WIN) for 1 unit

BIG WINNERS (BETFAIR SP PRICE)

2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.63

2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar $32.60

2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment $28.26

2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier $23.00

2024 Oakleigh Plate: Queman $19.15

2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run $19.50

2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar $18.95

2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone $15.50

2022 Australasian Oaks: Glint Of Hope $13.55

2023 TJ Smith Stakes: I Wish I Win $12.80

2023 Lightning Stakes: Coolangatta $12.69

2020 Metropolitan Handicap: Mirage Dancer $11.18

2022 Surround Stakes: Hinged $11.00

2020 Manikato Stakes: Hey Doc $10.32

2023 Blue Diamond Stakes: Little Brose $10.24

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