RANDWICK GUINEAS PREVIEW
Group 1 | Set Weights, 3YO | $1,000,000 | Rail: +3m | Track Conditions: Soft 6
0-30mm forecast across the days leading in to this and the Saturday race day itself. Should be on a rain affected surface, but to what extend is to be determined.
Three-year-olds line up for this Group 1 contest over a mile. The race has been dominated by the boys, with fillies only winning three times in the last 35 years. Celestial Legend won last year on his way to winning the Doncaster a month after.
PRICE ADVANTAGE HISTORY
Last year’s winner Celestial Legend got up at $4.15 which was a 3.6% price advantage over best tote after commission.
Communist’s win in 2023 was one of the best Betfair Exchange results of the season. The win came at a BSP of $21.25, which after commission was a whopping 24% higher than best tote, which equated to about $43 extra for a $10 outlay.
Converge began the trilogy of “Cs” by winning the race in 2022 at the $7.50 BSP>
SPEED MAP
No speed at all on paper. 7 of these come through the Hobartville. Mayfair led Public Attention there and neither turn up here. BROADSIDING settled closer than expected first up and shouldn’t be far away again. LINEBACKER was slowly away in the Hobartville but many expected him to lead like he did first-up. Josh Parr roll forward on DEPTH OF CHARACTER? Has led over a mile previously. TENBURY WELLS gets blinkers on? OUR BENEFACTOR might lob on speed up to a mile with freshness in his legs. He looks the most likely leader.
RACE PREVIEW
All about #1 BROADSIDING here. He won the lead up and won it very impressively. Best horse in race, McDonald on and even better suited up to the mile. Not entirely sure a slow tempo suits him and that is the only query, as if it is a sit and sprint others may be sharper. That said, he has class, and has won off some slow tempo’s in the past. The weather is the other piece of the puzzle, with showers forecast and the potential for a rain affected surface. No issue with BROADSIDING on the wet and he looks mighty hard to beat again. #2 SWIFTFALCON was enormous in that, running the fastest final 600m of the meeting, and taking good ground off BROADSIDING late, albeit the winner being eased down on the line. SWIFTFALCON is a winner on the Heavy and no issue there. #9 AELIANA was good in third. Hard to see #3 LINEBACKER turning the tables on the trifecta, unless he settles much closer in the run of course. It looks the natural and obvious lead up. Something from a different form line could run well and place, especially if they take up the running and control the race. That might be #7 OUR BENEFACTOR
TOP 4 SELECTIONS
1. Broadsiding
2. Swiftfalcon
3. Our Benefactor
9. Aeliana
RANDWICK GUINEAS BETTING STRATEGIES
Looks a race in two and the market has it pretty spot on at the moment. #1 BROADSIDING from #2 SWIFTFALCON. Don’t want to dive in at the current price of either but will be monitoring conditions and the market late.
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