EXPERT RACING TIPS: LAUNCESTON
LAUNCESTON PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | FRIDAY APRIL 18TH 2025
RAIL: 9m TRACK: Soft 5 , an upgrade possible
The track played pretty well last start in the 6m position. Out to 9m today generally advantages the on pace runners.
Best Bets
Jamie Cockshutt
BACK 4. NANCYS HOPE (WIN) for 6 units
NANCYS HOPE (4) was an absolute tragedy beaten last week and it sounds like im running out of excuses for her but she will have clear running tonight and will be winning.
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Jamie Cockshutt
BACK 8. SMOOTH MACHETE (WIN) for 5 units
SMOOTH MACHETE (8) was very good on resumption and should be better for the run so look for him to get off the pegs early and get on speed and should prove too classy.
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7. Florence Glass
6. Wholesome
1. Ibutho
9. Rumour Lane
Betting Strategy
FLORENCE GLASS (7) sat outside the leader and was just no match for Al Maximus at Hobart over this trip. She’s racing well and beat the third horse WHOLESOME (6) by a comfortable margin. The former King Island mare Wholesome was heavily backed on that occasion. She may be better suited around here. IBUTHO (1) lacks nothing in fitness. He found only one better here last week. RUMOUR LANE (9) gets blinkers for the first time. She was very ordinary last start. The run prior was good. MATEUS (2) was competitive in a harder staying race two runs back. Always tough these races, no staking recommendations.
11. Arianna’s Gold
12. Lady Fern
7. I’ve Been Dreaming
5. Light Force
Betting Strategy
BACK: 11. Arianna’s Gold (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $3.80)
ARIANNA’S GOLD (11) was rock-solid on debut and looks suited out to the 1200m. She gets every possible from the inside gate. Should run top 3. LADY FERN (12) continues to race well and just needs an ounce of luck in running. I’VE BEEN DREAMING (7) has the right form but has a wide gate to overcome. LIGHT FORCE (5) has gone close a couple of times and gets blinkers off for his return. Is usually a reliable beginner and doesn’t map too badly despite drawing out. STAR WALKIN’ (4) was solid first up off a good break and is worth including.
1. Antheia
7. Bounty Bay
4. Peak A Boom
5. Fluffy’s Girl
Betting Strategy
BACK: 1. Antheia (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $1.65)
ANTHEIA (1) had zero luck here first up then was quick to make amends 12-days later. She looks like a handy mare going forward. She strikes a moderate Class 1 race and looks a great chance to go back-to-back. Clearly on top.BOUNTY BAY (7) was okay first up for her new stable and was doing her best work late but ideally needs more ground. PEAK A BOOM (4) is a risky beginner but wasn’t far away in a respectable class 2 race last week. FLUFFY’S GIRL (5) won her maiden here but needs to improve on her past couple of efforts. NO ARGUMENT (3) is fresh off a maiden win and this is harder.
4.Lontano
3. Willingly
1. Shy Guy
2. Hartfelt
Betting Strategy
A very competitive race around the top 4-5 picks. There’s little between them. LONTANO (4) had success here two starts back with a last-to-first victory. A lack of tempo didn’t suit last time but he still ran well. SHY GUY (1) has run well every time he’s stepped out this prep. He only won narrowly last start and looks ready for more ground now but stays at the 1600m. Blinkers have been removed. HARTFELT (2) has won 2 of his last 3 including a win over Shy Guy last start with a 5.5kg advantage. it’s a similar scenario this race. Former Victorian WILLINGLY (3) landed the prize at her first local start. She did have every chance but should be improved off that run and the 1600m should also be beneficial. I’M KEEFE’s (7) best is competitive but may need one more? Staying out of this one …
11. Eastcoast Miss
4. Flying Billie
13. April’s Dance
3. Wheeling
Betting Strategy
BACK: 11. Eastcoast Miss (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $6.80)
FLYING BILLIE (4) got back to business last start leading all the way and was never under threat at any stage. He ran good time for that meeting and has strong claims again. EASTCOAST MISS (11) disappointed first up in Hobart but she may have needed that run. She won second up last preparation. Anything resembling her best goes close. She’s good each-way value. APRIL’S DANCE (13) is capable on her day. Respect any market confidence resuming. WHEELING (3) was always going to be up against at the 1400m last start. He just doesn’t run it out strongly and is far better suited back to this trip. Big weight is a query . LI’L HAIL MARY (6) has a case if race is run to suit.
3. Sh’bourne Midnight
5. Lord Whitegate
7. Rigoletto
2. Dayan Star
Betting Strategy
BACK: 3. Sh’bourne Midnight (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $1.65)
SH’BOURNE MIDNIGHT (3) is the one to beat. Given the manner in which he won at Hobart it is hard to tip against him. Scratchings make his wide gate very manageable.LORD WHITEGATE (5) looks the only leader in the field. Under those circumstances he’s a tough one to run down. He has been in good form of late. RIGOLETTO (7) always rates an each-way chance in these races. GINGERSON (8) over raced badly last start and didn’t finish off. He’d been in winning form prior. DAYAN STAR’s (2) run was better than it looks last outing after blowing the start x 4 lengths. Does mix his form but his best is competitive.
5. Mohnar
6. Rich Glow
4. Thin Red Line
1. Earendel
Betting Strategy
Tricky race.Didn’t mind the effort of MOHNAR (5) first up. He looks suited getting out to this trip. THIN RED LINE (4) had good market support here a fortnight ago but may have needed that run given there was a 41-day break between starts. May pay to keep him safe. RICH GLOW (6) should be close to peak fitness third run in. He maps for a great run. EARENDEL (1) has been given plenty of time since his maiden win in September last year on the synthetic. He’s had a good grounding at the trials in preparation for his return. Found him a hard horse to assess and happy to be guided by the market. SIR JAG (12), VALIANT KHAN (13) and CARNELIAN ROCK (14) are wider chances for exotics.Happy to sit this one out.
5. Zewinna
1. First Accused
3. Jaguar Stone
7. Sailor
Betting Strategy
BACK: 5. Zewinna (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $2.50)
FIRST ACCUSED (1) is the class runner of the field and the one to beat but does concede plenty of weight to all of his rivals even allowing for the claim. ZEWINNA (5) continues to race well and has a significant weight advantage over First Accused. Big chance. JAGUAR STONE (3) has been thereabouts of late but is struggling to win. SAILOR (7) hasn’t done much to date but improvement would not shock.
4. In The Ocean
8. Periwinkle
5. Intisar
2. Warica
Betting Strategy
BACK: 4. In The Ocean (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $1.70)
IN THE OCEAN (4) brings the best form and looks the hardest to beat. Has been kept fresh for this and maps to land in a good spot from a good gate. PERIWINKLE (8) was just no match for the other on-pacer first up. Has a great record this venue and trip. Will be hard to get past. Last start winner CHEROKEE DANCER (6) jumps sharply from a Class 2 race. She tested In The Ocean first run up this preparation. INTISAR (5) comes into contention if there’s plenty of heat up front. GEEGEE JET BY (1) and WARICA (2) can’t be taken lightly but from a win perspective am inclined to risk.
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