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4:00 21 Oct 20 Geelong Race 7 2400m Gp3 HCP

Weather — Partly cloudy 17c — no rain

Track Condition — Good 4 | Rail True

Track Pattern — Expecting EVEN

Speed & Assessed Price Summary

Winning Standard

A rating standard of 101.5+ is usually required to win this race.

Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

4Le Don De Vie4.2He looks a genuine improver with good prospects for racing here this Spring. What I like about him is that he's on a real upward sprial in his ratings since resuming in June - running 93.8, 97.8, 100.8 (held up in the straight) and then 101.9 last start when he won over 2303m at Listed level. They're not the top races overseas by any stretch, but the form & figures stack up well around him and I love the late strength he's been exhibiting. He's a horse that always wants to find the line at the end of his races. I expect him to roll forward early to settle up near the lead and prove hard to beat.
7Steel Prince4.4I think he's come back better than ever this preparation. Second-up he ran 101.9 when 2nd to Orderofthegarter in a fast 2000m races and then last start in the G3 Bart Cummings he was wide the entire strip over 2510m and still ran on in the straight, finding the line late to be beaten 1L behind Persan with a 101.4 rating. He was 3rd up in that race and in the past we've seen him produce his peak ratings 4th / 5th up, so he still has good prospects to improve further. He's a top chance here and it's only the fact that I think he'll give a couple of lengths head start to La Don De Vie that saw me price him a little longer than that horse.
2Ashrun4.8He ran 101.4 when second in the Prix Kergolay over 3000m at Deauville back in late August and did run 102.4 in November last year when a close 3rd in a German G1 Group 1 over 2400m, so he definitely has the talent to win this. He's right in the mix as a potential winner.
5Skyward6.5Lightly raced for a 5YO with just 7 starts, he actually brings the best recent rating in this field with a 102.8 when 2.8L 4th to Anthony Van Dyck last start. However, that was a race run at trackwork speed early and then nothing more than a 600m sprint home . He was found wanting late there, so I have a query whether his 2.8L margin and sudden improved rating around that level of opposition is a little flattering. In other words, had the pace been more genuine he would have been beaten by further. HIs prior win at Deauville returned a 98.8 rating, so my hypothesis is that a more accurate reflection of his form sits somewhere between those two marks. I may be wrong and he could come out here to beat them comfortably, but I can't trust that last start rating just yet until I see him do it again.
3King Of Leogrance19First run back in the Turnbull was just fair (95.3). He needs to improve right up to his career peak in the Adelaide Cup (3200m) to get in the finish of this.
1San Huberto21His overseas ratings are not as strong as the others and so far he's been a horse that looks to need 2800m+ to produce his best performances. It's hard to see him running a new peak over 2400m that will be needed to win this.
11Entente26He looks to control this race on his own terms in the lead, so it will be interesting to see what speed he travels. He roll along a bit, so despite the small field there's a good chance the pace will still be genuine. This two best so far are 100.2 and 98.8 so he definitely needs to make improvement here and do it at his first go over 2400m.
10Creedence41100.3 last start in the Bart Cummings was a new peak, but he's so well exposed with 32 starts that he's more likely to regrees to previous levels in the 97-99 range than he is to improve again for another new peak.
8Platinum Invador51Ran 98 last start and the 97-98 range has been his best so far. He needs to show sudden improvement.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Poor

Tough to be confident with four internationals that we’ve yet to see race in Australia, but happy to speculate small on Le Don De Vie.

BACK (WIN) — Le Don De Vie (stake 0.6% of your bank)

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 100.95

Total Units Returned: 99.66

ROI: -1.28%

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