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 3:25 06 Mar 21 Flemington Race 6 1200m Gp1 HCP

Weather — Partly cloudy 21c no rain

Track Condition — Good 4 | Rail +5m

Track Pattern — Likely off-fence advantage


Speed & Assessed Price Summary


Winning Standard

A rating standard of 103.5+


Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

#HorsesPriceComment
14September Run2.4She's the obvious standout here. She ran 103.3 in the G1 Lightning over 1000m and every thing about that run says the 1000m was far too short. A 106.4 to win the G1 Coolmore over this T&D in the Spring shows what she's capable of and anything close to that level will win this race. Despite her obvious dominance, it is a big handicap race that will involve plenty of traffic, some influence from how the track pattern plays on the day and it's not a guarantee that she'll run right up to her 106.4 peak. All of those factors have to play a role in pricing. There's no doubt she deserves to be a strong and dominant favourite, but I don't see any great value in the current market.
10Brooklyn Hustle10She looks a nice longshot gamble in this race after a terrific first-up run in the Oakleigh Plate. After jumping well, she was ridden ultra conservatively and spent the first half of the race or more drifting backwards. She was only 4.5L off the lead at the 800m mark, 5.6L off at the 600m mark and 7 lengths back at the 400m mark, near the tail of the field. The 600m to 400m is a stage of the race that horses off midfield need to be trying to build momentum and at least holding ground, if not improving and she was doing the opposite. The decision to be so conservative early and then the resulting traffic in front of her made it impossible to move into the race when she wanted to and it's very rare for horses to win under that scenario. Onece Brooklyn Hustle was clear though, she rocketed home with one of the best L200m ratings on record over 1100m at Caulfield, making up 5 lengths to be beaten just 0.3 lengths. While conserving some early energy is important to her finishing sprint, I feel like there's a good chance it was overdone and if she had ended up even 1 to 1.5L closer in the run, then she would have won the race comfortably. She's recorded as running a 100.7 rating, but in different circumstances she could have run 102-103. Second-up here over the straight course she gets an opportunity to stay within her comfort zone early and not end up 7 lengths back off the lead at the 400m mark. If she can do that and produce a similar type of sprint, she's capable of running a very big race. As a Spring 3YO she ran her 99 career peak at the time in the G1 Coolmore, so there's no reason to think she can run a new peak in this.
18Swats That12She ran 103.9 when second to September Run in the G1 Coolmore last Spring and 101.4 first-up when 3rd behind Nature Strip and September Run in the G1 Lightning. That profiles deserves respect, but there's plenty of others around the 101 level in this race, so she does need to make some improvement to just get the better of them, let alone beat September Run. Even allowing some improvement towards that past peak, I can't get her any shorter in my market. $7 in current betting seems skinny.
3Imaging14Back from WFA to a hcp race, he ran a 103.1 behind Streets of Avalon in the G1 CF Orr last start, which stacks up as super comeptitive in this race. The query is that he's been a 1400-1600m horse in the past and drops back to 1200m here. That said, I thought his turn of foot between the 400m and 100m mark in the CF Orr was sharp and that gives some indication he could be effective at 1200m. I wouldn't be surprised if he ran a very good race.
4Kemalpasa16He ran a new peak 102.9 in the Oakleigh Plate, beaten just 0.2L after being wide. Prior to that his 101.6 peak came over 1200m up the Flemington straight. History will say that given he was 40/1 last start, he's more likely to regress off that last start peak, rather than hold or improve on it again, but bringing such a competitive last start performance deserves some respect.
5Celebrity Queen16Finished strongly to dead heat in the Oakleigh Plate with a 101 rating, which is equal to her past peak. That's a good sign for this preparation, especially when she'll be better suited over 1200m here. She does need to improve to give herself a chance, but profiles well to do that.
15Sirius Suspect23First-up here with J Kah riding. Last prep he ran 102 and 100, which is competitive among the others behind September Run, but there's plenty I can put in front of him.
1Zoutori26His 103.9 when 3.7L behind Bivouac in the Darley Sprint last Spring says that he can win this race with 57kg, but his next and consistent best has been around the 101-101.5 level. A 101 last start says that he's returned in good form, but it's a stretch to forecast much beyond that.
6Dalasan34He ran 101.4 first-up last prep over 1200m. A similar effort can see him run a respectable race, but it's hard to see him going any better.
7Flit51Her best is typically in the 100-101 range and she only resumed with a 96 first-up.
9Bold Star51His 101-102 best can see him run a very respectable race, but they've all been at 1100m and he only ran 94.8 at that trip last start.
12Indian Pacific51Racing in good form and comes off a 100.2 against Fabergino last Saturday. There's nothing there though that suggests to me he can suddenly improve and he's also likely drawn the wrong side of the straight.
17Prague51He ran 97 first-up with some excuses and did shows as a 2YO that he could run 100-101 (normalised to his 52kg here.) He'll need to be better than that though if he's to have any chance of being somewhere around the finish.
2Elite Street67Beaten 12L in the Lightning and pulled up with EIPH. Impossibe to have off that.
8Standout81A real talent on this best (103-106.5) which can win this, but they've both come first-up and he's developed a history of being inconsistent. He ran 93.6 FUP in the Oakleigh Plate this time. The blinkers go on to try and spark something.
13Prophet's Thumb151Ran a near peak 100 first-up and then was OK in the Oakeligh Plate when too far back early, running 95. She needs a big new peak and it's hard to see that coming in this race, especially drawn down on the inside.
16Amish Boy201His best is in the 98-99 range and back from 1400m to 1200m looks a negative.
11Halvorsen301Has only run 94 and 89 in two runs since a 329 day spell.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Poor

There’s no knock on September Run other than the price being a little skinny so I’m reluctant to bet against her. However, Brooklyn Hustle does seem big odds, so happy to play small.

BACK (WIN) — Brooklyn Hustle (stake 0.3% of your bank)

 4:45 06 Mar 21 Flemington Race 8 2000m 3YO+ Gp1 WFA

Weather — Partly cloudy 21c no rain

Track Condition — Good 4 | Rail +5m

Track Pattern — Likely off-fence advantage


Speed & Assessed Price Summary


Winning Standard

A rating standard of 101+


Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

#HorsesPriceComment
3Fifty Stars5He ran 101.8 in the 1600m Blamey last week, which is the best recent figure in this field and backs up 7 days later into this race. That's the same pattern the stable used last year when he ran 101.2 in the Blamey and then won this race with a 101.8. In the Spring he ran 100.1 in the Cantala over 1600m and then backed up 7 days later over 2000m to run 101.3 when second to Arcadia Queen in the Mackinnon Stakes. He has consistently run his best ratings at this track, over this trip and on a seven day back-up. It's impossible to forecast him to do anything else but run very well again and prove hard to beat. The small query I do have is that there's a stack of runners just off him in the ratings and barrier 3 on a track which history says could be better away from the fence may negate any edge he does have. He's certainly the one to beat, but at current prices there's no great betting appeal.
8Steel Prince7First-up in the 1800m race won by Paradee, he sweated up pre-race, was 3 wide with no cover for the trip and was only beaten 1 length with a 99.7 rating. He was outsprinted when the pressure went on in that race, which wasn't surprising, but fought back and was sticking on well at the end. His 99.7 is competive for this race, he'll be fitter, better suited up to 2000m in a race that should have a little more pace and retains J Kah on top. Although draw wide, the map suggests he can work across to find a nice position just off the pace. It's more than reasonable to forecast him running 101+ in this race and that puts him right in the mix as a potential winner.
17Paradee9She's absolutely flying this prep - running 99 and 102 in two wins on the Gold Coast, before coming back to Melbourne off a 5 week break and beating many of these over 1800m at WFA last start with a 101.2 rating. That's a very hard mark to beat if she can repeat. The small queries I have are that she did get an ideal run last start up on the lead at a moderate pace and barrier 1 will end up a disadvantage if the inside part of the track is a disadvantage as expected. If that's the case, it's almost certainly enough for one of the others from last start to turn the tables, not to mention the other contenders in the race. The other angle for me is that horses can only hold their peak ratings for so many runs. Give she's been up since August 2020 without a genuine spell, this race and even last start were clearly not part of a planned preparation and more a case of 'keep going while she's in such good form'. The question is how long can that last? As a $9 chance I'm still giving her plenty of respect like her form deserves, but that's much longer than the current market price.
13San Huberto12He's the best longshot in the race for me. First-up last start in a slowly run 2000m race, he was outsprinted by Defibrilate in the straight and looked like he would be beaten clearly, but kept fighting and really wanted to find the line late, going down by just 0.4L in the end. He meets defibrilate 3.5kg better for that margin, brings a competitive 100.1 lead-up rating, will be fitter and should get a more genuinely run 2000m than he had last start. The other thing I like about this horse is that this is only his fourth start in Australia at his second-prep and that 100.1 first-up was a new peak. There's every chance that he has new peaks to come, so a 101+ is certainly possible for this horse. The negative is that there's no doubt he is better suited over 2400m and staying at 2000m may prove too sharp for him here, but with a competitive last start rating, some potential to improve and an appealing map, he's not hopeless at big odds.
14Nonconformist12Wasn't ideally suited by the moderate pace in the race won by Paradee last start and did a good job to be beaten 1.1L with a 99.5 rating. That was a new peak for him and his history says he's more suited at 2000m. The draw / map doesn't make it easy, but if the track is playing well away from the fence, it may prove no real disadvantage at all.
11Shared Ambition13He's run 100.2 and 100 in two runs this prep, the latest when beaten 0.8L by Paradee. That's obviously a very competitive level of form, but he will need to find a bit extra to win. Barrier 2 may not be ideal by this stage of the day.
4Homesman15Ran 99.8 when 3rd to Paradee last start after having every chance on the lead in a moderately run race. He's not the worst, but has regressed second-up in his past two preps and has produced his very best at Moonee Valley and Caulfield.
6Angel Of Truth23Was very good last start when poorly suited from well back in a moderately run 1800m race won by Paradee. His 99.4 isn't far off and he's potentially better suited by 2000m. On the flip side, he'll likely get a long way back again and it has been almost 2 years since he's cracked the 100 rating barrier.
2Harlem26He won this race in 2018 & 2019. Ran 98.5 second up LS behind Paradee over 1800m. He did run 100 and 101.5 over 2000m last prep, so it's not impossible that he could improve into this.
12Defibrillate26He's flying with four straight wins, but takes a decent step up here under WFA conditions. His last two have rated 98 and 97.5, so as well as he's going, he needs to find another clear new peak to get to 101+
7Best Of Days31Worked early in the Blamey but still ran okay with a 96.8. At WFA his best figures fall in the 98.5 - 100 range which won't be good enough and he has the added challenge of a wide draw.
9Chapada41Ran 99 when beaten 1.4L behind Paradee last start but did have every chances and historically that's about as well as he goes. Although not far off last start, there's nothing to suggest he can find that big extra to get to the 101+ needed to be a chance.
1Humidor51I didn't think he did enough FUP with a 91.7 and he looks rushed to the 2000m second-up, contrary to his program in previous preparations.
10Platoon51There was good sectional merit in his 1400m run last week, but WFA over 2000m looks a real stretch. He's a 96-98 horse at best and has a number of runs lower than that.
16Miss Siska51Ran 97 first-up and could improve towards her 99 peak. That won't be good enough here though and as a 7YO Mare, it's hard to see her suddenly running 101+
5Warning67First-up and will get a long way back in running from a wide draw.
15Miami Bound101Ran 91.5 first-up and looks to need more racing & further to show her best.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Poor

A very competitive race with a stack of potential winners and the track pattern may end up playing a key role, which we won’t know until closer to race time.

If you want to speculate:

BACK (WIN) — Steel Prince (stake 0.5 % of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — San Huberto (stake 0.3 % of your bank)

 5:20 06 Mar 21 Flemington Race 9 1600m 3YO F Gp2 SW

Weather — Partly cloudy 21c no rain

Track Condition — Good 4 | Rail +5m

Track Pattern — Likely off-fence advantage


Speed & Assessed Price Summary


Winning Standard

A rating standard of 93+


Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

#HorsesPriceComment
1Personal2.7A fair FUP return last start, but her 90.8 rating is still the best lead-up figure into this race and that by itself is a strong form factor. More notably, she has a good pattern of improving second up. In her two previous preparations she has improved 4-5 points with the benefit of a FUP run and doing that here put's her around the 96 mark, which we have seen from her in the past. In a race where anything 93+ looks extremely hard to beat, she has to be clearly on top. I prefer to back horses that have recent form up to the likely winning standard so she's not a top tier bet, but still has some appeal. The only horse I could back in this race.
2Yes Baby Yes9I thought she was a little flattered with her last start win over a number of those she meets again in this race. She got away with a very soft pace up on the lead to the 400m mark then the just fell in at the end. That said, she did start shortest in that lead-up, is better in under this weight scale and does have J Kah riding. I wouldn't be surprised if she won again, but there's no betting appeal.
3Chica Fuerte10She was OK first-up behind Yes Baby Yes with an 88 rating. That's well short of winning this, but she can improve second-up and her best in the 92-92.5 range says she can be very competitive.
10Miss Guggenheim10She had no luck when beaten 2.2L behind Yes Baby Yes. Unsuited from well back in a slowly run race, she stayed to the inside inferior ground turning for home and was then held up around the 200m mark. She's a lightly raced horse that gives the impression she's better than we've seen so far and this is the type of race that could see her show that. She has the potential to run a big new peak, but as second favourite in current markets, she seems to be getting more than enough credit for that potential.
4Island Joy14Tough to assess. She bolted in at this T&D in early January with a 95.4 rating that would even give Personal some trouble in this race. However, she was big odds in that race and then regressed last start to an 86, which is more consistent with her moderate overall form.
6Starelle14Ran 87 FUP behind Zou Dancer, but will be fitter for that and better suited at 1600m. Her 92 rating run in the Spring over this T&D was stamped by good sectionals from a mile back in the field, so she does have talent. Not the worst in this.
9Perfect World14She only ran 84.5 winning a Maiden at Sale last start, but the way in which she won leaves me with no doubt that she's a good deal better trhan that. She lost plenty of ground going very wide on the turn, wanted to lay in and still won drawing away. 1600m here will be much more suitable and it wouldn't surprise me if she ran a big new peak.
8Shojiki23Ran 87.5 behind Yes Baby Yes last start, which was an equal PB. Some of the others have already proven they can run well into the 90+ and she's yet to reach those levels.
7Safe Passage34Her best so far is 84.3 and she did have very chance behind Yes Baby Yes to do better last start. Blinkers on may bring some improvement, but she's hard to make a case for.
11Selfless34Beaten in a BM64 last start, but ran on well from a long way back with good sustained sectionals. She needs to take a big step on her 86 rating to be competitive, but will appreciate 1600m.
5Vespertine41Ran 90 two starts ago and then regressed to 83.3 last start behind Zou Dancer. She needs to rebound from that and then go to a big new peak.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Poor

BACK (WIN) — Personal (stake 1% of your bank)


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 131.75

Total Units Returned: 126.48

ROI: -4.00%


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