TRB Race Assessment: Free Horse Racing Tips

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Spring TRB Race Assessments

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Utilise the Rated Prices from TRB and Back and Lay horses that present value on the Betfair Exchange.

3:35pm Rosehill Race 7 – 1200m 3YO+ Gp2 SWP

Weather – Possible showers 1-5mm

Track Condition – Heavy 8-9 | Rail True

Track Pattern – Off-fence after a few races

Speed & Assessed Price Summary

Winning Standard

Based on exposed form, a rating of at least 100 at the weights carried will be needed to win.

Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

13Savatiano $4.60FUP - She's trialled well for this and has really gone to a new level over the past 12-15 months. In 12 starts since May 2019, she's run 103.8 three times with another 103.3 rating and three additional performance above 100. That reads as a strong rating profile for a race where 100+ puts you in the finish, especially when one of those 103.8 performances came first up last preparation over 1300m at this track on Soft 7. Ground worse than that is some query, but it's far from definitive and the market is offering a good price to make such a gamble worthwhile.
10Eduardo $4.80Ran 100.5 to win first-up in his debut for Joe Pride, who has his runners flying at the moment. That 100-101 range is where his best form sits, so there's no doubt he's right in the mix here. I would be more confident if he had run 100+ at 1200m (his six best ratings are in the 1000-1100m range) but he was solid at the end of the 1100m last week and he does have a 97.5 at 1200m before. He's a leading chance.
5Flit $6.00FUP - At times in her short career so far Flit has looked like she could be a serious top class horse, but she has struggled for consistency. That aside, she still profiles very solidly for this race. In two first-up runs so far she's rated 103 (last prep when winning 1200m @ Randwick on Soft 7) and 98.9, also over 1200m at Randwick (Good 4 ground.) Her recent trials suggests she's come back well, the wet is no problem and she's drawn to get a soft run. It's more than reasonable to think she could return with a 100+ performance that makes her capable of winning. If we get to this stage of the day and the inside is a clear disadvantage, that will make it tougher for her.
4Melody Belle $10.00FUP - There's no doubting her talent and consistency, but gee she looks a suspect favourite in this race to me. Her last four first-up ratings read 97, 92, 97.6, 96.8 and she finds herself in a race where where at least 100+ will be needed to win. She won her recent trial, but was urged right along so while not knocking it, I don't think it adds anything to make me think she's suddenly going to exceed all of her previous first-up efforts. Beyond first-up runs, her 9 best ratings as a 3YO or older, (which range from 99.8 to 102.1) have all come in the 1600-2000m range. The best rating she's recorded in 10 starts at 1200m is 97.6. I wouldn't be totally shocked if she won, but I can't have her as favourite. On current prices I have to be right against her.
7Special Reward $12.00FUP - Three ratings he ran last prep of 101.5, 100.7 and 103 say he definitely has the talent to win this. However prior to those runs he had trialled like a rocket and his three trials this time, while not poor, don't give the same impression. That makes him tough to assess. The betting market moves around him are likely to be telling. If he's easy then I'd suggest he'll return well below his best. If there's strong support, I'd want to shorten my assessed price.
6Cascadian $17.00FUP - last prep he came off a similar one trial prep and was backed from $3.90 to $3.30 in a G3 race, running home well to just miss behind Special Rewaard (also in this race). That performance returned a 102.6 rating and was on Soft 7 ground over 1200m. It's a decent reference to say that Cascadian has the talent to run very well here and potentially win. Whether he can repeat that one-off spike and the fact he'll get so far back has to be a query, but he's far from the worst in the race.
9Le Romain $21.00FUP - Last time first up he ran 97 with some excuses and in the preparation prior he ran 102.3, so it's not unrealistic for him to be very competitive in this race and even win. He's trialled okay, although being urged along in his latest to just shade a BM64 horse in Bring Glory doesn't instill great confidence, especially given he's just turned 8YO.
11Glenall $21.00He was good FUP behind Eduardo, rating 100 and that was after being closest to the inferior inside section of the track. That was an equal career peak for him and the query is that in each of his last three preps, he's regressed in his rating second up to levels that can't win this race.
1Kolding $26.00FUP - Ran 98 on resuming last prep and 97 the preparation prior. The wet is no real concern, but I thought he perpaps didn't trial quite as well this time as he did last preparation. He's not the worst, but hard to like.
12Signore Fox $31.00Ran 97.4 at his last start in early July to win the Ramornie at Grafton, which isn't far off the mark here. He'll need to go even better to win this, which seems unlikely, but he'll no doubt be running home strongly at the end and could get within 1-2 lengths.
3Imaging $67.00FUP - Gelded for this preparation and is likely to find the 1200m too sharp here. His best of 98.8 won't be good enough and that came over 1500m. Hard to imagine he can run a big new peak first-up over 1200m.
2Mister Sea Wolf $101.00FUP - He's trialled well leading into this, but 1200m is far too short. His best is in the 1500-1800m range. The best rating he's run at a shorter trip is 95.5 and that was over 1400m. It's hard to imagine he'll be able to get anywhere near the 100+ level over 1200m.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal – Poor

There’s plenty of uncertainty in this race with so many first-up runners. If there is a bet to make, Savatiano appeals as the genuine value.

BACK – Savatiano – Bet to WIN (stake 0.7% of your bank)

3:45pm Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m Gp3 WFA

Weather – Cloudy 13c – no rain

Track Condition – Soft 5 | Rail +5m

Track Pattern – Likely off fence from home turn

Speed & Assessed Price Summary

Winning Standard

Based on exposed form, a rating of at least 99 at the weights carried will be needed to win.

Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

4 Viridine. $3.00

Ran 99 last start when chasing home Jungle Edge over 1100m and 101.2 prior when winning at Randwick over 1200m. If anything, he’s the one better suited by the improving track in this race, not that it’ will necessarily help him to run a higher figure, but it does make him more likely than Jungle Edge to run up to his 99-101.

With two recent runs in that range and the prospect that off the fence around the turn will be best (maybe not not ideal for Jungle Edge) I have to lean to Viridine as the horse to beat.

1 Jungle Edge. $4.20

Heavily backed last start on the Heavy 8 and was too strong for Viridine, running a 101 that can win this. The big query is that he lines up on a Soft 5 here. He is well proven at 99+ on Soft 6 or worse, but his general level on ground better than that is slightly lower.

What I will say to offset that though is in the past 12 months, the times he has raced on better ground he has had plenty of excuses for one reason or another. At the end of the day, he brings a last start rating that can win and will race in a positive map position. He deserves plenty of respect and can certainly win.

2 Streets of Avalon. $8.00

First-up with blinkers on. He’s rated 97 in his last two first-up run and apart from that 102 G1 Futurity win where he benefited from a heavily biased track, he’s generally a 97 horse. That’s not hopeless here, but he may be relying on the top two to run below their best in order to win.

5 Great Again. $10.00

Ran 97 last start and did the same three starts ago. That’s around his level, which is competitive, but he’ll either need to find a bit more, or rely on others not running up to their best.

3 Widgee Turf. $11.00

His five best ratings are in the 98.8 to 101.5 range, so he has the talent to win, but they’ve all come over 1400-1500m. First-up over 1200m and coming from back in the field it’s difficult to forecast him much beyond 96-97.

8 Sansom. $15.00

With a best of 96.5 he’ll likely need a new career peak to win. On the positive, that 96.5 came last start, he’s on a quick back up and maps well. Not the worst.

6 I am Someone. $26.00

Ran 95.3 last start and while he has have 2 x 97 ratings, they were over 12 months ago. He looks up against it here.

9 She Shao Fly. $101.00

This is a totally different level to her BM70 win last start. He best around 94 is well short and she’ll be giving superior gallopers a head start in the run.

5 I’m Telling Ya. $126.00

The best he’s run in his last five starts is 92.4. Looks outclassed at WFA.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal – Average

Happy to back Viridine to turn the tables and save on Jungle Edge. They look the clear two best to me.

BACK – Viridine – Bet to WIN (stake 1.2% of your bank)

BACK – Jungle Edge – Bet to WIN (stake 0.3% of your bank)

4:03pm Sunshine Coast Race 7 – Gp3 SW

Speed & Assessed Price Summary

Winning Standard

Based on exposed form, a rating of at least 94 at the weights carried will be needed to win.

Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

1 Star of Michelin. $3.30

Was back to form last Saturday at Eagle Farm over 1400m with a 93.8 after making a long and wide run from back in the field and the step up to 1600m here looks ideal. I’m happy to ignore his Doomben form (seems to hate the track), but if I go back to his last run at Eagle Farm over 1600m, he ran a career peak 96.4, winning impressively. His only time on Soft he won over 1400m as a 2YO so there’s no reason to be concerned about Heavy ground in this.

Just as importantly, I expect that from a good draw here (compared to drawing wide in his last five runs) he’ll settle around midfield or just off at worst, rather than a mile back in the field. Prior to last start, the stable had given him a jumpout where he was made to lead and he won, so there is clearly some intent to try and get the horse to not consistently race at the tail of the field.

There was little option last start from that wide draw but this race is different. Off a good last start run, nice draw, and on the quick back up over 1600m, he looks ideally set up to run something in the 93.5 to 96 range, which makes him very hard to beat.

7 Knight Mariner. $6.50

He’s a progressive 3YO coming off a last start Ipswich win that was much better than the 0.3L margin and 90.8 rating indicates. He ran terrific sectionals and hit the line strongly with clear signs that he has more to offer. I was ideally looking for him to step up in trip, but wet ground here (bred for it) and a bigger track at the Sunshine Coast could still see him elevate his rating. His potential upside represents some threat, although he will give away a big start.

3 Wapiti. $7.00

Ran 95.9 last start over 2030m at Doomben which could win this, back drops back sharply to 1600m here where he only rated 91.8 prior. There’s no doubt he has a competitive profile and the map could be a big thing in his favour, but he’s deep into his prep now (8th up) without any type of freshen up and I wonder if he’s still sharp enough for 1600m.

12 Maozi. $7.50

Was good running on from back over 1350m at Doomben last start with a competitive 93.3 rating. The 1600m looks to suit here, but she will likely get a long way back.

11 Starla. $10.00

An honest filly that is well exposed with 16 career starts and 6 runs this preparation. Her 91.7 last start isn’t hopeless and it was her first run in 6 weeks, so she is potentially fitter for this. However apart from one 96.5 spike back in November last year, she’s consistently peaked around the 92 level so she looks vulnerable to a couple of the others with better figures.

13 Al Jood. $16.00

Very inconsistent, but did spike a big 97 two runs ago when just 0.8L behind Vanna Girl (what price would she be here?) and back in April she did run 93 on soft ground at this track, winning over 1800m. She’s three from three at this track (although two in much easier grade) and could get a very soft time up near the lead. You couldn’t be confident given her inconsistency, but she does have the talent.

2 Smart Meteor. $21.00

Has been rating around the 93 mark, which is competitive, but they’ve been in solidly run races over 2000-2200m. Dropping back to 1600m in a race that lacks some early speed looks a disadvantage.

9 Vendidit. $31.00

He’s a lightly raced progressive type, but even allowing for some improvement on his 85.5 last start, he still profiles like a longshot.

5 Love Express. $41.00

OK last start behind Starla and a mile may suit, but an 86.5 rating is well short. He needs to improve sharply.

6 Samurai. $51.00

Comes off a sound Gold Coast win, but the 87.5 rating is well short and there doesn’t look to be much potential to improve.

4 Naval Strike. $81.00

On the up this prep, but was beaten 3.8L behind Star Of Michelin last start at 20/1. His career best is still 2 lengths short.

8 Buzzer Beater. $1001.00

Totally outclassed.

10 Two Smokin Barrels. $2001.00

Totally outclassed.

14 Miss Margs. $2001.00

Totally outclassed.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal – Average

BACK – Star of Michelin – Bet to WIN (stake 1.0% of your bank)

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 73.05

Total Units Returned: 64.89

ROI: -6.75%

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