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Caulfield | Race 6 | 3.40pm
1600m G2 3YO SW

Weather: Partly cloudy 21c
Track Condition: Good 4 | Rail +6m entire circuit
Track Pattern: Settling within 4 lengths of the lead is okay. Further back is a signifiant betting disadvantage.

Speed Map

Winning Standard

A rating standard of 91+

Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

12Festival Dancer2.7Comes down to VIC off an easy win in the G3 Spring Stakes at Newcastle last start. Her 93.9 rating from that run is clearly better than the career peak of any other runner in this race and her 91.4 prior to that is also better than the peak of every other runner except Port Louis, who has 2YO form up to 92.7. She's a front-runner with a top jock riding (C Williams), a clear ratings edge, in career best form and over a trip she's well proven at. That's strong betting profile every day of the week.
2Port Louis6He ran the best race of his prep last start at Flemington, with an 89.5 and does have form up to 92.7 as a 2YO, so he's certainly capable of winning. However, he was there to win at the 250m mark last start and have every chance to find more at the end of 1400m if capable. More importantly, his lack of tactical speed sees him consistently get a long way back in the field, which is a significant betting risk. He'll win one of these races eventually, but he's not the type of horse I'm ever going to find as a betting prospect.
3Blushing Tycoon9He only ran 86 last start, but there was more merit in the performance than that. He raced handy to a strong speed over 1800m and was there still fighting hard at the end, just nosed out by Spirit of Gaylard in a race dominated by backmarkers. I expect he will push forward from that barrier to race handy and is one that has the potential to absorb a genuine or better pace and still be strong at the end of 1600m. It wouldn't surprise me if he ran a new peak. A good value longshot chance.
6Cardinal Gem9Ran 85 last start in the same race as Port Louis, but his run was a good deal beter than that, not given much hope from a mile back in the field. He likely has a new peak in him and 1600m may help him show that, but he still needs to take a big step up to win this race. He's also likely to end up well back on the map again.
7Blazerro12He was a little disappointing last start at Sandown, running 85, but his prior 89.8 first-up at Pakenham was a promising start to his campaign and suggested that a mark of 91+ is within his reach. The Stokes stable had a poor start to this season with just 6 winners from 104 runners in VIC to 4th November, but have bounced right back to form in the past 3 weeks with 5 winners and 11 placings from just 23 runners. It's not unreasonable to think that Blazero could also bounce back to form in this race, especially with an ideal run in transit. He's a longshot that could run very well.
4Chartres16Ran 89 to win a moderate 3YO Open at Cranbounre on Heavy 10 ground last start. That's competitive, but he jumps sharply from 1200m to 1600m and needs to run a clear new peak, going back to Good 4 conditions. Not the type of horse I'm interested in.
10General Firepower34He only ran 84 winning a maiden at Pakenham last start, but his late strength was impressive and typical of a horse that has more to offer. It's a big stretch to think he could elevate enough to win, but I do expect he'll run another clear new peak.
9Blue Army41An 85.5 win first-up at Warrnambool is well short of this, but he did start $1.50 and it was only his second career start. He obviously has plenty of potential for improvement, but very few horses elevate the 6+ points he needs to find in just one run.
5Mister Me51Looks outlcassed with a best of only 86-87 so far and no obvious signs that he can improve.
8Yaphet51A best of 85.5 so far. Looks outclassed
11Reigate101A nice start to his career with an 83.7 win at Pakenham on debut, but he needs to find 7+ points just to get in the finish.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Good

BACK (WIN) — Festival Dancer for 1.5 units

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