EXPERT RACING TIPS: CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL

Cheltenham Overview

RACE 1 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: 3. East India Dock (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.40)

East India Dock might have both a class edge and course experience edge over his rivals here and looked imperious when winning here a month and a half ago. A run to that level should be winning this.

9. Mondo Man (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $8.00)

If he finally gets a rollicking tempo then Mondo Man might produce his best. On the flat he had top class Royal Ascot form and French Derby form, whilst always getting too far back off slow tempos. The big field, the headgear, the stiffer test may get him to settle finally and if he does he has probably the best turn of foot in the field and should enjoy the going.

BACK: 6. Larzac (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $9.00)

Staggered by this $33 price at time of writing for Larzac.
Was a heavy favourite on debut and inexperience cost late on, having a look around and being collared on the line. That horse was purchased and sent to the UK, winning as a $1.18 chance at Wetherby a month ago. I feel Larzac was the winner on merit at Auteil and showed more ability than the winner and it’s no shock that Willie Mullins and JP McManus came calling. He will have improved many lengths and presents massive value here.

RACE 2 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: 2. Absurde (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $4.50)

Absurde won this last year of a substantially lower handicap mark (8lb) but he’s still relatively unexposed in the jumping sphere and he’ll love this ground. He beat L’eau du Sud last year in this and that form has been franked with him now winning a G1, G2 and narrowly going down by a length in a G1 the other day.
Plenty to like about his luckless 5th from the rear of the field in the Melbourne Cup so he is improving with age.

BACK: 1. Daddy Long Legs (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $8.00)

Daddy Long Legs will love this ground and bigger field handicaps where he can be produced late on suit much better. Provided he doesn’t jump like a fridge, he’ll be bang there in the finish.

RACE 3 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

Four horses I like here and can’t back them all so sitting out

RACE 4 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: 9. Jasmin De Vaux (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $6.00)

With jumping less of a priority here and able to use flat speed to the finish, Jasmin De Vaux should be to the fore and replicate at least some of the talent showed to win the Champion Bumper here last year. Townend keeps faith which is also a positive sign.

BACK: 8. Intense Approach (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit

Experienced horses often win this and with form at course, stamina aplenty and the ability to handle the ground Intense Approach picks himself at that price in a race that usually puts the bookies’ kids through private school.

RACE 5 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

Nothing to spin here, just a chance to cheer on a potential immortal of the jumps if Galopin Des Champs can bag another Gold Cup. Possibly a tiny angle to lay in running if jumping poorly (only defeat here came when getting tangled up at the last) but his engine is unmatched.

RACE 6 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: 10. Its On The Line (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $3.00)

Twice runner up in this having been nailed as a $2.50 fav last year. In the same mould as Billaway who was knocked off twice as runner up before third time lucky, I fancy him to finally break through at a smashing price considering this has been the target all season long and he was more than half this quote last year.

RACE 7 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: 2. Wodhooh (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $3.00)

There’s a fair old pattern with winners of this race: almost always rated 135 or higher (71kg)
0 favourites have won in the last decade and a half.
As second favourite and unbeaten over hurdles, Wodhooh looks the goods and has course and distance experience. Clearly the one to beat for me.

BACK: 5. Minella Sixo (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $8.00)

I’ve warmed to Minella Sixo who profiles so well for this having run behind some key form performers. Handles good ground crucially and was well within striking distance before crashing out at the 3rd last hurdle last time. The runner up from that race won yesterday, and winner wasn’t beaten far in 5th.
Chased home Potters Charm (5th in a G1 this week) at the course in November, and if The Big Westerner wins earlier in the card the price here will tumble.