If you like betting on the 15-man game then you need to read these Super Rugby betting strategies.
The Analysts, who are a collection of pro punters, share some insight they can help you become more profitable. The following tips are simple to implement but proven.
It goes without saying that New Zealand is a stronger rugby nation than Australia. The All Blacks have won the last two World Cups and have held the Bledisloe Cup since 2003. Teams from the Land of the Long White Cloud have won 15 of 22 Super Rugby titles, including five of the last six. Even the most casual rugby observer would have few qualms in declaring New Zealand superior at the 15-man game to Australia.
Few understand the dominance New Zealand Super Rugby teams have over their Australian counterparts though and from a betting perspective it provides an excellent opportunity to bet with total confidence, something of a rarity. Last season, Australian Super Rugby franchises won the princely sum of zero games in 25 matches against New Zealand opposition. The season prior, they were marginally better, collecting three wins and a draw from 26 matches. In 2015, Australian teams went 7-15. Across the last three seasons of Super Rugby – a period marked by increased player movement and the further erosion of union as a relevant code in Australia – New Zealand teams are a remarkable 62-10-1 against Australian opposition.
Frankly, the gulf in talent, coaching and organisational ability between the two nations is obscenely large and getting wider. That dominance is so pronounced at home that New Zealand teams can be unleashed on at short odds with total confidence. It isn’t sexy loading up at short odds but betting New Zealand Super Rugby teams at home against Australian opposition hardly seems to carry any risk. It’s better than bank interest, as they say, and nearly as safe.
The last Australian team to win on New Zealand soil was way back April of 2015, when the Waratahs upset the Hurricanes 29-24. The Brumbies have not won in New Zealand since 2014. The Reds have not been successful in New Zealand since 2013.
The Crusaders and Hurricanes have not lost a home game to an Australian team since 2015. The Chiefs last lost to an Aussie side in the Waikato in 2014. The Highlanders have not lost to an Australian team in New Zealand since 2014. The Blues have the longest home streak against Australian opposition dating back to 2013.
Over the last three seasons, New Zealand teams are 33-2 against Australian opposition on home turf.
In 2017, New Zealand teams went a perfect 12-0 against their Australian counterparts at home. The average margin of victory was 24.25 points. Five margins were bigger than 28 points. Only two games finished within single digits.
In 2016, the story was eerily similar. New Zealand teams went an undefeated 12-0 against Australian teams at home with an average margin of victory of 23.92. Four games were decided by 33 points or more while just two were determined by single digits.
In 2015, New Zealand teams went 9-2 at home when Australian teams visited.
Betting big favourites never seems fun, particularly taking the short head-to-head odds. It is the road to consistent profit though when loading up on New Zealand teams at home against Australian teams. They don’t lose and the gulf is getting bigger.
The 2017 Super Rugby season saw a record low conversion rate for halftime leaders going on to win games with the winner of the opening stanza converting just 71.32% of the time.
It is the only time in the last five years halftime leaders have failed to convert at less than 75%. The 2016 season, by contrast, saw the team leading at the break go on to win the match a remarkable 84.85% of the time. The 2015 season also topped 80%.
Such a drop in conversion rates presents a likely opportunity on two fronts in the 2018 Super Rugby season: pre-match halftime/fulltime action and in-game live betting.
The theory on the first is simple. If you fancy a team, you can confidently bet a portion of your overall stake on same to win the halftime/fulltime double, adding extra value to your overall outlay.
The second is to take the short odds on the halftime leader to go on and get the win in live betting. Often these odds will be very short – you are, of course, betting a team in front with only half the match to play. There are occasions though when an outsider is leading by a small amount where there is a chance you can get odds-against.
We can narrow these opportunities down though by sticking with proven finishers, teams that get a lead and don’t let it slip.
New Zealand teams, probably not surprisingly, are the best finishers by region. When New Zealand teams lead at halftime in a Super Rugby encounter, they go on to win 84.56% of the time. The Hurricanes lead the pack with a 30-2 record over the last three seasons with the Highlanders (29-3) and Crusaders (28-3) all superb and reliable finishers. The Chiefs also convert at above 82%. The Blues are the only Kiwi team who have shown any semblance of flakiness over the last three seasons, converting at just 60% from 25 halftime leads.
South African teams have converted at 76.69% since 2015. The Lions are far and away the best South African closers with a 27-2 conversion record with the Stormers also reliable with a 23-3 strike rate. The Bulls are 17-3-1 from their 21 leads and could also be considered highly reliable while the Sharks are 16-5. The now-defunct South African teams of the Cheetahs (9-9) and the Southern Kings (4-3) certainly helped drag the overall South African strike rate down.
It is certainly the Australian teams that statistically appear to be the most vulnerable when leading at the break. Australian teams convert a halftime lead at just 75.28%. The Waratahs are the one Australian side that can be relied on with a 17-3 conversion rate. No other Australian team hit at over 80% with the Reds 7-2, the Brumbies 21-7 and the Rebels a particularly ordinary 11-6-1.
New additions the Jaguares and Sunwolves certainly don’t fit into the reliable status yet. The Argentinean-based Jaguares are 7-5 with a halftime lead in their two seasons while the Tokyo-located Sunwolves have led just five times at the break in two season, winning just one of those matches.
In Super Rugby, halftime leaders win. Off a season where that strike rate was down, there will be more value. If you can stick with the reliable finishers then you will grind out a profit over the season.
In many sports, it is defence that will sustain success for a season or longer. Defence is the foundation of which success is built.
The ability to create points – on the gridiron, on a Rugby League field, on the basketball court – can come and go but the thinking is that defence can overcome execution with effort and effort should always be maximised.
While it is an important indicator in Super Rugby, it is not the primary driver of success. Teams with middling defences can reign supreme. The most important indicator when it comes to determining who will play off in the Super Rugby final is tries scored.
Over the last 12 seasons, 10 winners have ranked in the top three in tries scored during their title-winning season. Five finished the year as the top try scoring team. No champion has ranked lower than fifth in try scoring over the last 12 seasons.
Of the last 24 finalists, 15 have finished ranked in the Top 3 while just three have ranked outside of the Top 5.
This certainly goes against much common thinking that the most important player in a rugby team is the goalkicker. The ability to create and score tries is far more important. Tries are more important than goals. It should be logical but it certainly goes against a lot of popular thinking in rugby.
This leads to futures betting opportunities preseason and throughout the year. Bettors should look at teams with the requisite attacking flair to threaten when analysing teams prospects before the season starts. And looking at how many tries a team is scoring should present some excellent futures opportunities throughout the season, particularly after six-to-eight weeks tick over.
| Champion | Runner-up | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Crusaders (2) | Lions (3) |
| 2016 | Hurricanes (4) | Lions (2) |
| 2015 | Highlanders (3) | Hurricanes (1) |
| 2014 | Waratahs (1) | Crusaders (7) |
| 2013 | Chiefs (1) | Brumbies (5) |
| 2012 | Chiefs (3) | Sharks (5) |
| 2011 | Reds (3) | Crusaders (2) |
| 2010 | Bulls (1) | Stormers (9) |
| 2009 | Bulls (5) | Chiefs (3) |
| 2008 | Crusaders (1) | Waratahs (8) |
| 2007 | Bulls (2) | Sharks (4) |
| 2006 | Crusaders (1) | Hurricanes (5) |
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The Analysts preview the 2018 Super Rugby season, with the tips on who to consider and who to avoid ...
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