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The first Masters of two this super-season and held in the most unlikely of months in November, all eyes turn to Augusta this week for what is widely regarded as the mecca of golf and the most anticipated tournament on the calendar.

The Field

The Masters has naturally attracted an incredible field led by defending champion Tiger Woods, No.1 Dustin Johnson and US Open champion Bryson DeChambeau. There will be some big names missing though. Daniel Berger and Harris English have not qualified while Joaquin Niemann is a covid withdrawal.

Keys To Victory

  • Par 5 Performance
  • Scrambling
  • Greens In Regulation
  • Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
  • Par 4 Birdie or Better
  • Putting Average
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Driving Distance
  • Proximity
  • Bogey Avoidance

Course Notes

There is no more pristine, immaculate, iconic 18 holes in golf than those at Augusta, an altar that is as revered as it is idolised. Designed by the legendary Bobby Jones, Augusta is the home to such iconic features as Amen Corner, Rae’s Creek, Butler Cabin, Ike’s Pond and The Big Oak Tree.

Off the tee distance is far more important than accuracy. It plays even longer than its yardage book by the way it is cut. The course has been lengthened and narrowed over the last two decades but wayward drives are not always punished with such an established and pristine course.

Performance off the tee though is not nearly as important as iron play. Augusta is a second-shot course where experience and precision are key. It is said two kinds of players win at Augusta: tacticians and scramblers. That plays out most notably with irons and wedges in hands.

The greens at Augusta are some of the toughest in world golf, fast and hard to read, and performance with the flat stick is important but the toughness really brings the star putters back to the field making it a less important statistical angle.

Tournament Winners

2019 – Tiger Woods
2018 – Patrick Reed
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 – Danny Willett
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Bubba Watson
2013 – Adam Scott
2012 – Bubba Watson
2011 – Charl Schwartzel
2010 – Phil Mickelson

Weather Report

Thursday: 23 Degrees, 8 km/h winds, 80% chance of rain
Friday: 21 Degrees, 10 km/h winds, 40% chance of rain
Saturday: 19 Degrees, 14 km/h winds, 30% chance of rain
Sunday: 21 Degrees, 13 km/h winds, 40% chance of rain

Winner Profile

There is a pretty clear profile of the type of player who wins at Augusta. Distance is more important off the tee than accuracy. Approach shots are critical. An ability to scramble is essential. Getting hot with the putter does no harm. Course form is a near-must as is strong recent form. The best players in the world tend to win. Victors have typically been south of the age of 40. No winner has been longer than $67 since 2011.

Betting Strategy

Best of the Favourites

Xander Schauffele

Ranks 2nd in Scrambling, 4th in Par 5 Performance, 4th in Bogey Avoidance, 7th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 10th in GIR so clearly has the perfect game for Augusta. Was runner-up here last year and probably should have won it. Posted Top 25 finishes the last three years at Riviera, the key correlation course.

BACK — Xander Schauffele to win for 1.3 units at $17.50

Tyrrell Hatton

In-form Englishman who has made the cut in two of three starts here. Enters this playing better than he ever has. Won the BMW PGA Championship four starts back and has 10 Top 7 finishes in his last 17 tournaments. Ranks 4th in Par 4 Birdie or Better, 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 4th in Putting Average, along with rating 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 19th in Bogey Avoidance. Best value play.

BACK — Tyrrell Hatton to win for 2.1 units at $40

BACK — Tyrrell Hatton Top 10 for 3.3 units at $4.30

Best of the Mid-Tiers

Webb Simpson

Veteran who ranks 1st in key stats of Putting Average, Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 Birdie or Better. Also ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 11th in Proximity, 11th in Scrambling, 12th in GIR, 13th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 16th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. Putts best on bentgrass and ranks Top 15 in the field in putting on fast greens. Finished 5th here last year.

BACK — Webb Simpson to win for 1.3 units at $50

BACK — Webb Simpson Top 10 for 1.3 units at $4.50

Scottie Scheffler

On debut here, which is a bit of a concern, but absolutely has the game to thrive at Augusta National. Ranks 3rd in Par 4 Birdie or Better, 7th in Par 5 Performance, 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 16th in Driving Distance. Ranked in the Top 30. Finished Top 5 in the PGA Championship and two of the three playoff events so clearly has the class.

BACK — Scottie Scheffler to win for 0.5 units at $95

BACK — Scottie Scheffler Top 10 for 1 unit at $6.20

Best of the Longshots

Paul Casey

Englishman who missed the cut here last year but prior to that had four straight Top 15 finishes including three Top 6s. Ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 14th in GIR and 18th in Bogey Avoidance. Posted a T-25 in the Genesis in 2019. Current No.22 in the world. Posted Top 17 finishes in his last two majors.

BACK — Paul Casey to win for 0.2 units at $110

BACK — Paul Casey Top 10 for 0.7 units at $6.80

Kevin Kisner

Veteran who has finished in the Top 43 in each of the last four years – his only four Masters. Ranks 15th in Scrambling and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting and does his best work on both fast greens and bentgrass greens. Posted Top 25 finishes in 8 of his last 11 including three Top 5s.

BACK — Kevin Kisner to win for 0.2 units at $260

BACK — Kevin Kisner Top 10 for 0.5 units at $13

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 55.95

Total Units Returned: 93.22

ROI: 66.62%

Biggest Winners

2020 WGC-Mexico — Patrick Reed at $41

2020 US Open — Bryson DeChambeau at $30

Previous Tournaments

For previews on all the majors, head here.

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