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Golf’s unofficial fifth major and arguably the best tournament of the year, the Players Championship is the jewel in the crown of the PGA Tour.
Held at the iconic TPC Sawgrass, the cream typically rises to the top in one of the great tournaments anywhere in the world.
Keys To Victory
Course Notes
TPC Sawgrass is arguably the most famous course on the PGA Tour with the island green 17th its most renowned hole. The Pete Dye designed course is truly iconic. It favours no particular type of player and is a true test.
Strong winds – which are forecast – can make this a real links-like test. Pete Dye designed courses that can give a guide include TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, TPC Louisiana and Sedgefield.
Tournament Winners
2019 – Rory McIlroy
2018 – Webb Simpson
2017 – Si Woo Kim
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Rickie Fowler
2012 – Matt Kuchar
Weather Report
Thursday: 24 degrees, 19km/h winds, 10% chance of rain
Friday: 25 degrees, 18km/h winds, 10% chance of rain
Saturday: 24 degrees, 21km/h winds, 10% chance of rain
Sunday: 25 degrees, 19km/h winds, 10% chance of rain
Winner Profile
Form around the green is critical to succeeding at TPC Sawgrass, where precision is valued above all. Accuracy off the tee and iron play are also highly prized.
Form through Pete Dye designed courses is a big indicator. No player has ever defended the Players Championship. Americans have a relatively poor recent record in the event.
Best of the Favourites
Webb Simpson ($31.00)
Won here in 2018 and profiles better than any other player when he competes on a Pete Dye course.
Leads the Tour in Par 4 Performance, ranks second in Putting Average, third in Ball Striking, fifth in Scrambling, seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Finished Top 16 here each of the last three years. Finished Top 10 in five of six tournaments this year including winning in Phoenix.
Patrick Read ($34)
Recent form is sensational with four Top 6 finishes from his last seven starts on the PGA Tour including a win in the WGC-Mexico. Two Top 25 finishes from six starts at TPC Sawgrass when typically playing in much worse form. Ranks first in Putting Average, second in Strokes Gained: Putting and ninth in Par 4 Performance.
Best of the Mid-Tiers
Matt Kuchar ($61)
A former winner back in 2012. Posted three Top 17 finishes in his last six starts at TPC Sawgrass. Ranks 13th in Driving Accuracy and 14th in Strokes Gained: Putting this year. Finished second in the RBC Heritage last year and 25th the year prior. Has five Top 16 finishes in eight PGA Tour starts this year including a second at Riviera a month back.
Brandt Snedeker ($81)
Ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Around The Green, seventh in Par 4 Performance and 20th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Won the 2018 Wyndham and posted a Top 25 in the 2018 RBC Heritage. Form is strong with three Top 22 finishes in his last five starts.
Best of the Longshots
Jim Furyk ($201)
Veteran who was runner-up here last year and was also runner-up here in 2014. TPC Sawgrass rewards his accuracy from the tee, a statistical category he leads the PGA Tour in this year. Also ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach. Missed three straight cuts but does like it here.
Brendan Todd ($251)
Already won two tournaments this year and form since has been solid with four Top 30s in seven starts. Ranks second in Scrambling, fifth in Driving Accuracy and 18th in Par 4 Performance this year.
The opening WGC event of the year kicks off in Mexico.
The Field
As would be expected with a WGC event, a crack field has been assembled led by World No.1 and tournament favourite Rory McIlroy. Four of the Top Five players are in attendance while Seven of the Top 10 are playing. There are 23 of the Top 30 players in the world.
Keys To Victory
Course Notes
Club de Golf Chapultepec has hosted the tournament since its inception in 2017. Low scoring has been the norm with -21 winning last year and at least -14 winning in each of the three years. It is a long course but that is offset a little by the altitude. It is a second shot course with quality iron play essential before taking advantage on the greens.
Tournament Winners
2019 – Dustin Johnson
2018 – Phil Mickelson
2017 – Dustin Johnson
Weather Report
Thursday: 27 degrees, 24km/h winds, 10% rain
Friday: 23 degrees, 20km/h winds, 20% rain
Saturday: 26 degrees, 16km/h winds, 10% rain
Sunday: 28 degrees, 14km/h winds, 10% rain
Winner Profile
Chapultepec is in just its third year of hosting this tournament so we are working off a very small sample of data. It has played very much as a second-short course though so looking for key iron play stats.
The small greens are not easy to hit so being able to put it close and out of trouble is key. The Poa/Kikuya combination are the same combination used at Riviera while the Poa is a feature of Torrey Pines, so they are the two key courses we are looking at as correlation. The last five winners of this event have started $26 or shorter.
Best of the Favourites
Webb Simpson ($19.00)
Tremendous profile for here. This season leads the PGA Tour in Birdie or Better, Putting Average and Strokes Gained:
Approach while he ranks third in GIR, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 5th in Scrambling. In great form with Top 10 finishes in all five starts this year including a win last start in Phoenix.
Hideki Matsuyama ($21)
Last season ranked Top 10 in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and Birdie or Better while he ranked 12th in Scrambling. Posted Top 10 finishes in last two at Riviera and in the 2019 Farmers Insurance. Showing some strong recent form with three Top 5 finishes in his last seven starts.
Best of the Mid-Tiers
Patrick Reed ($41)
Finished Top 8 in four of his last six PGA Tour starts. Finished 14th here last start. Great Poa putter and finishes Top 13 in the last two Farmers Insurance Opens. Ranks fifth in Putting Average this year while finished last season ranked 14th in Strokes Gained: Around The Green.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($51)
Leads the European Tour in Proximity and Strokes Gained: Putting while ranks second in Putting Average, seventh in Scrambling and ninth in Birdie or Better. Top 10 in four of his last seven starts.
Best of the Longshots
Robert Macintyre ($126)
Very consistent with Top 10 finishes in five of his last 10 starts. Ranks eighth on the European Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green.
Corey Conners ($126)
Premier iron player who finished last season ranked third in Proximity 125-150 yards, first in GIR, ninth in Strokes Gained: Approach and ninth in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. Finishes Top 20 in six of eight starts.
The Genesis Invitational is now hosted by Tiger Woods and it has produced the most loaded field arguably in PGA Tour history, a field that may be stronger than any major or WGC event.
The Field
Regular season PGA Tour fields do not get any hotter than this. The top six players and nine of the Top 10 in the world will line up at Riviera. This includes Tiger, No.1 Rory McIlroy and majors king Brooks Koepka. There are in fact 19 of the Top 25 in the world taking part in what is a truly remarkable field.
Keys To Victory
Course Notes
Riviera is one of the most historic courses on the PGA Tour. It has hosted three majors (1948 US Open, 1983 PGA Championship, 1995 PGA Championship) and first hosted the Los Angeles Open in 1929. It has hosted the event since 1973 for all bar two years and is revered for being a thorough test where it has ranked in the 11 hardest in five of the last 11 years.
Work off the tee is not critical though an inability to control positioning makes life incredibly difficult. Strong iron play is absolutely essential. Finding greens and the right part of them is the key to success. Scoring on the four Par 5s has proven most important in determining the winner of this event.
Tournament Winners
2019 – JB Holmes
2018 – Bubba Watson
2017 – Dustin Johnson
2016 – Bubba Watson
2015 – James Hahn
2014 – Bubba Watson
2011 – Aaron Baddeley
2010 – Steve Stricker
Weather Report
Thursday: 18 Degrees, 13 km/h winds, 0% chance of rain
Friday: 17 Degrees, 16 km/h winds, 0% chance of rain
Saturday: 19 Degrees, 18 km/h winds, 0% chance of rain
Sunday: 18 Degrees, 16 km/h win, 0% chance of rain
Winner Profile
Form at Augusta is very much desired here as there has long been a correlation between The Masters course and Riviera. Torrey Pines and Quail Hollow are two other courses with a strong correlation as are Firestone and TPC River Highlands.
Course form is also very much desired. The tournament has thrown up big priced winners but they have mostly been top shelf over the last decade. Only three Australians have won the event but this is an event well suited because of the kikuyu fairways and rough.
Best of the Favourites
Patrick Cantlay ($21.00)
Good form at Augusta with a 9th-placed finish last year and has Top 15 finishes in the last two Travellers and in the last event at Firestone.
Leads the Tour in Ball Striking this year while he ranks Top 8 in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and GIR. Finished last year ranked 3rd in Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance and Par 5 Scoring. Great course form here with two Top 15 finishes the last two years.
Jason Day ($34)
No player has thrived on the correlation courses more than Jason Day, who has finished 5th and 20th in the last two Masters, Top 12 in the last two Travellers, has a win and a 24th in the last two Wells Fargos, Top 16 finishes in the last two Farmers Insurance Opens and Top 24 in the last two WGC events in Bridgestone.
He is a premier putter on Poa and he has a solid profile with rankings of 6th in Par 5 Scoring and 7th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. Returned to form at Pebble Beach suggesting he may finally be over his injury woes.
Best of the Mid-Tiers
Marc Leishman ($41)
Won the Farmers Insurance a fortnight back and has Top 21 finishes in the 2018 Masters, 2018 WGC – Bridgestone and the 2019 Travellers. Has Top 5 finishes in two of his last four at Riviera. Ranks 3rd this year in Strokes Gained:
Approach and was 16th in Scrambling in 2019. Recent form is very good off the win at Torrey Pines. Stunned at his big price.
Paul Casey ($61)
There are a few question marks over how well he is playing but he does have the right game to win here.
Last season Casey led the Tour in Ball Striking while he ranked 4th in GIR, 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 17th in Proximity and 17th in Par 5 Scoring. Finished 15th in the 2018 Masters while he posted Top 5 finishes in each of the last two Wells Fargos and Travellers. Five Top 10 finishes at Augusta are a good indicator.
Best of the Longshots
Corey Conners ($126)
Conners has the perfect game for Riviera. Led the Tour in GIR and Proximity last year while ranking 3rd in Ball Striking, 9th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 9in th Strokes Gained: Approach. Finished Top 20 in six of eight tournaments this season so can show up at a big price.
Matt Jones ($201)
Ranked 6th in Scrambling, 12th in Par 5 Scoring and 13th in Bogey Avoidance last season. Posted Top 20 results in the 2019 Farmers Insurance and 2018 Travellers. Finished 14th here at his second most recent start at Riviera. Form is good with a 5th at Pebble Beach and an Australian Open win recently so happy to take a flyer.
The Victorian Open became a European Tour event in 2019 and the unique event that sees both the men and women play the same course at the same time has attracted a quality field.
The Field
No.79 Haotong Li and No.84 Lucas Herbert are the two players in attendance in the Top 100 players in the world while big-name locals Wade Ormsby, Jason Scrivener, Min Woo Lee and Brad Kennedy will roll out. Kiwi Ryan Fox, Englishman Sam Horsfield and South African Louis De Jager are also playing.
Keys To Victory
• Greens In Regulation
• Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around The Green
• Putts Per GIR
• Par 4 Scoring
Course Notes
13th Beach Golf Links hosts the Victorian Open for the eighth time having taken over the event in 2013. The Beach Course will host three rounds while each player will play the easier Creek Course for one round.
The Beach Course is a traditional links course so accuracy with irons and a strong short game are key, as well as the requisite ability with the flat stick. The Creek Course is significantly easier and plays like a Melbourne sandbelt course. The first four home last year ranked Top 18 in both GIR and Scrambling.
Tournament Winners
2019 – David Law
2018 – Simon Hawkes
2017 – Dimitrios Papadatos
2015 – Richard Green
2014 – Matthew Griffin
2012 – Scott Arnold
2010 – Jason Norris
Weather Report
Thursday: 22 Degrees, 24 km/h winds, 10% chance of rain
Friday: 23 Degrees, 29 km/h winds, 20% chance of rain
Saturday: 24 Degrees, 42 km/h winds, 10% chance of rain
Sunday: 24 Degrees, 35 km/h win, 20% chance of rain
Winner Profile
A links profile is very much desired. The winner will need to be able find the green or get up-and-down if they don’t and putt well. This is a second shot course so an ability to make ground on the approach shot and scramble well is critical. The main UK links tournaments shape as the best guide in terms of correlation tournaments.
Best of the Favourites
Jason Scrivener ($17.50)
Australian who has the right game for here. Ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Scrambling and 39th in GIR. Finished 5th here last year. Form great with three Top 10 and a further three Top 26 finishes in his last 10 tourneys. Had seven Top 10 finishes on the European Tour overall last year which gave him a Top 40 finish in the Road To Dubai standings.
Sam Horsfield ($27)
Young Englishman with a bright future. Ranks 5th in Putts Per GIR and 21st in Par 4 Scoring on the European Tour. Posted Top 35 finishes in the 2018 Scottish Open, 2018 Irish Open and 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links. Two Top 25 finishes in his last seven tournaments.
Best of the Mid-Tiers
John Catlin ($44)
Young American really making a mark on the Asian Tour. Won the Thailand Open in early November and has three Top 22 finishes since following on from three Asian Tour wins in 2018. Ranks 8th in GIR on the Asian Tour while he ranks 6th in Scrambling (and 30th on the European Tour).
Travis Smyth ($42)
In great form on the Asian Tour with five Top 18 finishes in his last seven tournaments. That is a marked turnaround from his woes early in 2019. Included were a second at the NSW Open. Ranks 15th on the Asian Tour in Scrambling. Young Australian going well enough to win here.
Best of the Longshots
Hugo Leon ($160)
Ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Around The Green and 27th in Strokes Gained: Approach. Finished 8th in the Open De France and 21st in the Portugal Masters so class no issue. Made 14 of 21 cuts last year including three Top 10s.
Terry Pilkadaris ($190)
Veteran Australian who hasn’t won on the European Tour but needs to be respected. Finished Top 25 here in his only three starts at the venue. Ranks 30th in Par 4 Scoring. Asian Tour form has been great with two Top 7 finishes in his last five starts including a T-7 at the Hong Kong Open.
Royal Melbourne welcomes a host of the world’s best players for one of the premier teams events and highlights of the world golfing calendar.
The Field
The United States team consists of eight players in the Top 13 in the world while they have no player ranked lower than Matt Kuchar at No.24. Adam Scott is the top-ranked player on the International Team at No.18. The Internationals have six players ranked outside the Top 40.
Keys To Victory
Course Notes
Royal Melbourne is ranked as the best golf course in Australia and one of the finest in the world. The Presidents Cup track is a composite of the West and East courses.The club was founded in 1891 and has hosted myriad major golfing events including Australian Opens, World Cups and Presidents Cups.
It is not a long course so those with plenty of length are not greatly advantaged. Undulating greens and penal roughs, though, prize accuracy with the venue very much a second-shot course. Getting up-and-down from the bunkers is important while the pristine greens run fast and are renowned for being difficult to read.
Presidents Cup History
The United States have lost just once in 12 Presidents Cup ties with 10 victories and just a single loss. The US have won the last seven ties dating back to the drawn 2003 Cup. The United States won the last President’s Cup 19-11 and have won six of the last seven by at least three points.
This is the third time the Presidents Cup has been hosted by Royal Melbourne with the course famously the venue for the only International victory back in 1998.
Weather Report
Thursday: 18 Degrees, 20% Chance of Rain, 29 km/h Winds
Friday: 21 Degrees, 0% Chance of Rain, 21 km/h Winds
Saturday: 23 Degrees, 10% Chance of Rain, 23 km/h Winds
Sunday: 26 Degrees, 10% Chance of Rain, 19 km/h Winds
Winner: USA
The US have too great a talent edge. Better International teams have been beaten. Worse United States teams have won. It is hard to see Ernie Els’ roster having the depth to truly challenge the United States, particularly on Sunday in the singles events.
BACK – USA to win at $1.30+
Top USA Points Scorer: Justin Thomas
Justin Thomas is 3-1-1 at the Presidents Cup and went 4-1 at the last Ryder Cup. He is in great form with two recent tournament wins. He has a strong first-up matchup with Tiger Woods. Young and highly ranked, he should play five matches.
BACK – Justin Thomas Top USA Points Scorer at $4.00+
Top Internationals Points Scorer: Louis Oosthuizen
Oosthuizen is 23-11 in match-play since 2015 and went 4-1 the last time the Presidents Cup was played outside of the United States. He is in strong recent form, running second at The Australian last week.
BACK – Louis Oosthuizen Top Internationals Points Scorer at $5.00+
Total Units Staked: 18.00
Total Units Returned: 41.00
ROI: 127.78%
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