Your Golf Betting Tips and Previews

TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, March 14-17

Regarded as the 5^th Major, The Players Championship, is hosted at the same venue every year. The key to playing the Pete Dye Stadium course well is avoiding the water hazards like the 16^th,17^th & 18th. This is a course that requires finesse not power, it’s a complete test, you must hit the ball very well. But there’s probably never been a “Players” champ who hasn’t holed a lot of lengthy putts

Weather Report

Thursday – 24 Degrees, Partly Cloudy, Precipitation 10%, Humidity 67%, Wind 21km/h

Friday – 26 Degrees, Scattered Thunderstorms, Precipitation 40%, Humidity 71%, Wind 16km/h

Saturday – 17 Degrees, Cloudy, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 64%, Wind 19km/h

Sunday – 19 Degrees, Cloudy, Precipitation 10%, Humidity 70%, Wind 23km/h

Top 25 Players in the Field

My Rated Prices

Note – I think Justin Thomas should be favorite for the tournament this week, he has good current form and has had a solid last 12 months and has had good previous form at the course in recent years. Charles Howell is a big over this week, he has been in good form and is a player to keep an eye on, along with Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar. Rory Mcllroy is in form, the only query is his form at the venue the past 3 years. Jordan Spieth is completely out of form and happy to oppose!

In Play Trading Opportunities

• This week’s beauty – Lay on the 17^th tee and re-back after the 18^th

Since 2003, the 462 yard 18^th hole has been the most difficult at THE PLAYERS Championship, averaging 4.33 strokes. It’s the toughest green to hit (44%), and has the second most water balls, with the highest double bogey average.

The 17^th hole has incurred 598 water balls since 2003, the high came in 2007 with 93. And with a stroke average of 3.11, I suggest not placing any “back” bets in-play on 17 or 18. Instead I believe that there is value in placing a “lay” bet on players on the 17^th tee and “re-backing” after they complete the 18^th hole.

The 2^nd hole is a Par 5 and there is an in-play profitable strategy I suggest using. It’s the second toughest fairway to hit at 52%, however for those players going for the green in two, they average 4.50 verses the players laying up averaging 5.08. Therefore if you see a player on the fairway with a club in hand that indicates they are going for the green in two, simply place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once they have completed the hole.

Note – Any in-play “backing” and “laying” strategies should only be applied if there is ample liquidity in the market and the back & lay markets are compressed.

Betting Strategy

I generally don’t like to back a leader after day 3 that is only leading by a shot, history shows on the PGA Tour that 75% of players leading by a shot entering the final round don’t win. They average worse than the yearly tour scoring average. This is great for two ball match betting, tournament betting etc. Something to keep an eye on!

I generally lay the first player to get to odds on favorite, providing they have more than 6-9 holes to play, preferably more than 9 to play. Less than 50% go onto win.

Assess the odds of players in the clubhouse, compared to those on the course. As a general rule, players on the course are favored over those in the clubhouse. In the U.S Masters this year, Rory Mcllroy and Jordan Spieth finished their second rounds early and drifted more than 20% once the whole field had completed their second round.

 BACK – Charles Howell to finish Top 10 at $7.40 for 2 unit

LAY  – Jordan Spieth to finish Top 10 at $7.00 for 1 unit

LAY  – Sergio Garcia to finish Top 10 at $5.00 for 1 unit

 BACK – Xander Schauffele to finish Top 10 at $3.80 for 1 unit

 BACK – Matt Kuchar to finish Top 10 at $5.70 for 2 units

 BACK – Webb Simpson to finish Top 10 at $5.30 for 2 units