Your Golf Betting Tips and Previews

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Austin Country Club, Austin, TX, March 27-31

Austin Country Club is a private golf club in the Southern United States, located in Austin, Texas. Established 120 years ago in 1899, the club moved to its third and present site in 1984, a challenging layout designed by noted course architect Pete Dye. The Par 72 layout measures 7108 yards is west of central Austin and will be a good test for all players, with windy conditions expected.

Weather Report

Thursday – Cloudy, 26 Degrees, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 54%, Wind 23km/h

Friday – Isolated Thunderstorms, 28 Degrees, Precipitation 30%, Humidity 54%, Wind 23km/h

Saturday – Scattered Showers, 22 Degrees, Precipitation 40%, Humidity 47%, Wind 19 km/h

Sunday – Mostly Cloudy, 17 Degrees, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 45%, Wind 18 km/h

25 Players in the field in Betfair Market order and form review

 BF OddsMy OddsAvg last 20 roundsLast Year Results
Dustin Johnson10.5 1168.6568.7
Rory McIlroy11 968.1569.3
Justin Thomas17 1368.9569.12
Jon Rahm19 3269.669.96
Jason Day24 2069.5569.6
Brooks Koepka24 7570.769.44
Justin Rose24 1769.968.99
Tommy Fleetwood24 1569.669.34
Tiger Woods29 2969.969.35
Bryson DeChambeau30 6070.2569.65
Louis Oosthuizen50 16070.970.16
Paul Casey30 3569.7569.85
Francesco Molinari36 8570.5569.8
Xander Schauffele42 2369.170.49
Bubba Watson38 8070.170.38
Tony Finau44 5570.1569.52
Patrick Reed55 15070.970.11
Hideki Matsuyama46 2669.4570.02
Sergio Garcia55 907070.64
Marc Leishman65 11070.4570.26
Gary Woodland70 5069.770.16
Ian Poulter65 11070.1570.59
Patrick Cantlay60 6570.1569.9
Jordan Spieth70 19071.2569.9

Betting Notes

Jordan Spieth continues his horrible form, I’m to continually oppose him until he can show a turnaround in form. The market is reasonably accurate for the top 10 players, the overs are Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose within the top 10. Outside of that the market continually seems to be missing Charles Howell, he is in solid form.

Jim Furyk shoots up my ratings with his strong finish at The Players Championship. I am happy to oppose Louis Oosthuizen, Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed, but be a little weary of Patrick Reed, he does thrive on matchplay.

Pre Tournament Bets

 BACK – Tony Finau in his Round 1 Match for 1 unit

 BACK – Xander Schauffele in his Round 1 match for 2 units

 BACK – Justin Rose at $8 to make the Semi Finals for 1 unit

 BACK – Tommy Fleetwood at $8 to make the Semi Finals for 1 unit

 BACK – Xander Schauffele at $13 to make the Semi Finals for 1 unit

 BACK – Charles Howell at $18 to make the Semi Finals for 1 unit

 BACK – Charles Howell in every match in group format for 2 units

LAY  – Jordan Spieth in every match in group format for 3 units

TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, March 14-17

Regarded as the 5th Major, The Players Championship, is hosted at the same venue every year. The key to playing the Pete Dye Stadium course well is avoiding the water hazards like the 16th,17th & 18th. This is a course that requires finesse not power, it’s a complete test, you must hit the ball very well. But there’s probably never been a “Players” champ who hasn’t holed a lot of lengthy putts

Weather Report

Thursday – 24 Degrees, Partly Cloudy, Precipitation 10%, Humidity 67%, Wind 21km/h

Friday – 26 Degrees, Scattered Thunderstorms, Precipitation 40%, Humidity 71%, Wind 16km/h

Saturday – 17 Degrees, Cloudy, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 64%, Wind 19km/h

Sunday – 19 Degrees, Cloudy, Precipitation 10%, Humidity 70%, Wind 23km/h

Top 25 Players in the Field

PlayerBetfair OddsAvg last 20 roundsLast Year ResultsAverage Past 3 Years
Dustin Johnson15.569.268.770.75
Rory McIlroy1668.669.371.38
Justin Thomas18.568.269.1269.38
Justin Rose2770.168.9971.5
Brooks Koepka2670.769.4470.83
Rickie Fowler2669.869.4473.75
Francesco Molinari2970.6569.870.25
Tiger Woods307069.3569.25
Xander Schauffele3268.8570.4968.5
B DeChambeau347069.6570.25
Jon Rahm3668.8569.9671.25
Tommy Fleetwood3470.2569.3470.88
Sergio Garcia427070.6472.25
Patrick Cantlay4669.5569.970.88
Hideki Matsuyama4869.4570.0270.88
Adam Scott5570.1570.4270.08
Paul Casey5569.469.8571.5
Jason Day6569.8569.670.25
Webb Simpson7070.269.2969.63
Matt Kuchar6568.870.4669.5
Jordan Spieth7070.969.970.5
Tony Finau7070.1569.5271
Henrik Stenson6571.1569.6270.75
Rafa Cabrera Bello707169.8971.38
Ian Poulter7569.8570.5970.75

My Rated Prices

PlayerCurrent OddsMy rated prices
Dustin Johnson15.511
Rory McIlroy1613
Justin Thomas18.59
Justin Rose2750
Brooks Koepka26110
Rickie Fowler26120
Francesco Molinari29100
Tiger Woods3026
Xander Schauffele3215
B DeChambeau3446
Jon Rahm3620
Tommy Fleetwood3465
Sergio Garcia42160
Patrick Cantlay4638
Hideki Matsuyama4835
Adam Scott5595
Paul Casey5542
Jason Day6532
Webb Simpson7029
Matt Kuchar6517
Jordan Spieth70140
Tony Finau7070
Henrik Stenson65150
Rafa Cabrera Bello70170
Ian Poulter75100

Note – I think Justin Thomas should be favorite for the tournament this week, he has good current form and has had a solid last 12 months and has had good previous form at the course in recent years. Charles Howell is a big over this week, he has been in good form and is a player to keep an eye on, along with Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar. Rory Mcllroy is in form, the only query is his form at the venue the past 3 years. Jordan Spieth is completely out of form and happy to oppose!

In Play Trading Opportunities

  • This week’s beauty – Lay on the 17th tee and re-back after the 18th

Since 2003, the 462 yard 18th hole has been the most difficult at THE PLAYERS Championship, averaging 4.33 strokes. It’s the toughest green to hit (44%), and has the second most water balls, with the highest double bogey average.

The 17th hole has incurred 598 water balls since 2003, the high came in 2007 with 93. And with a stroke average of 3.11, I suggest not placing any “back” bets in-play on 17 or 18. Instead I believe that there is value in placing a “lay” bet on players on the 17th tee and “re-backing” after they complete the 18th hole.

The 2nd hole is a Par 5 and there is an in-play profitable strategy I suggest using. It’s the second toughest fairway to hit at 52%, however for those players going for the green in two, they average 4.50 verses the players laying up averaging 5.08. Therefore if you see a player on the fairway with a club in hand that indicates they are going for the green in two, simply place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once they have completed the hole.

Note – Any in-play “backing” and “laying” strategies should only be applied if there is ample liquidity in the market and the back & lay markets are compressed.

Betting Strategy

I generally don’t like to back a leader after day 3 that is only leading by a shot, history shows on the PGA Tour that 75% of players leading by a shot entering the final round don’t win. They average worse than the yearly tour scoring average. This is great for two ball match betting, tournament betting etc. Something to keep an eye on!

I generally lay the first player to get to odds on favorite, providing they have more than 6-9 holes to play, preferably more than 9 to play. Less than 50% go onto win.

Assess the odds of players in the clubhouse, compared to those on the course. As a general rule, players on the course are favored over those in the clubhouse. In the U.S Masters this year, Rory Mcllroy and Jordan Spieth finished their second rounds early and drifted more than 20% once the whole field had completed their second round.

 BACK – Charles Howell to finish Top 10 at $7.40 for 2 unit

LAY  – Jordan Spieth to finish Top 10 at $7.00 for 1 unit

LAY  – Sergio Garcia to finish Top 10 at $5.00 for 1 unit

 BACK – Xander Schauffele to finish Top 10 at $3.80 for 1 unit

 BACK – Matt Kuchar to finish Top 10 at $5.70 for 2 units

 BACK – Webb Simpson to finish Top 10 at $5.30 for 2 units

Previous Tournaments

For previews on all the majors, head here.

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