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The first major of 2021 sees us return to the beauty of Augusta for the most anticipated tournament of the year, The Masters.

The Field

There is no Tiger Woods but every other big name in golf will be at Augusta in pursuit of the green jacket and a lifetime of immortality.

Keys To Victory

  • Scrambling
  • Greens In Regulation
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Proximity
  • Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
  • Par 4 Birdie or Better
  • Putting Average
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Par 5 Performance
  • Bogey Avoidance

Course Notes

There are no more pristine, immaculate, iconic 18 holes in golf than those at Augusta, an altar that is as revered as it is idolised. Designed by the legendary Bobby Jones, Augusta is the home to such iconic features as Amen Corner, Rae’s Creek, Butler Cabin, Ike’s Pond and The Big Oak Tree.

Off the tee, distance is far more important than accuracy. It plays even longer than its yardage book by the way it is cut. The course has been lengthened and narrowed over the last two decades but wayward drives are not always punished with such an established and pristine course. Performance off the tee though is not nearly as important as iron play.

Augusta is a second-shot course where experience and precision are key. It is said two kinds of players win at Augusta: tacticians and scramblers. That plays out most notably with irons and wedges in hands. The greens at Augusta are some of the toughest in world golf, fast and hard to read, and performance with the flat stick is important but the toughness really brings the star putters back to the field making it a less important statistical angle.

Tournament Winners

2020 – Dustin Johnson
2019 – Tiger Woods
2018 – Patrick Reed
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 – Danny Willett
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Bubba Watson
2013 – Adam Scott
2012 – Bubba Watson
2011 – Charl Schwartzel
2010 – Phil Mickelson

Weather Report

Thursday: 28 Degrees, 18 km/h winds, 20% chance of rain
Friday: 27 Degrees, 11 km/h winds, 40% chance of rain
Saturday: 27 Degrees, 21 km/h winds, 40% chance of rain
Sunday: 26 Degrees, 18 km/h winds, 20% chance of rain

Winner Profile

The type of player who thrives at Augusta is the player with a strong iron game, who is both imaginative and capable around the greens and who can putt on fast and firm conditions. Experience matters with rookies having very little success. Course form is an added bonus. The best players tend to win. This is a tournament that rarely sees a winner north of 40. Longshots don’t have an excellent record here.


Betting Strategy

Justin Thomas

Former World No.1 has gotten better with each trip to Augusta, leading to a T-4 in November. Thomas has the perfect game to thrive here. He leads the Tour in Putting Average and Par 4 Birdie or Better while he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 5th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 11th in Bogey Avoidance.

His recent form is outstanding, winning The Players, and he has excellent form in the main correlation tournaments including great form in the WGC-Mexico.

BACK — Justin Thomas 1.2 units at $13 or better

Brooks Koepka

Take out the recent knee surgery and Brooks looks an incredible price considering the form he played himself back into and his major record. He won in Phoenix and was runner-up at the WGC-Workday while only one poor round cost him at the Genesis. Finished Top 21 here in the last four and Top 7 the last two. Ranks 5th in Par 4 Birdie or Better, 7th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 14th in Putting Average, 16th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 17th in Driving Distance. Koepka lifts for majors and looks to be under the radar here.

BACK — Brooks Koepka 0.7 units at $34 or better

Webb Simpson

A consistent player who has finished Top 20 at his last three trips to Augusta. Leads the Tour in Bogey Avoidance while he ranks 2nd in Scrambling, 13th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 18th in GIR. Loves bentgrass greens and finished 6th at Concession. There is no knock on his recent form with three Top 10s in his last seven starts.

BACK — Webb Simpson 0.3 units at $50 or better

Tyrrell Hatton

Englishman who has played here four times and has not performed well. His game should perfectly suit Augusta though and happy to take his classy iron game this week. He ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 15th in Proximity so his iron game is right. He ranks 19th in Putting Average and loves fast greens so flat stick profile is strong. Ranks 18th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. Just needs to overcome some of the mental hurdles he puts in front of himself.

BACK — Tyrrell Hatton 0.4 units at $65 or better

Max Homa

Social media icon Homa won the Genesis this year and there is no better guide. Form at Riviera has consistently held up at Augusta so well worth following in. He also finished T-22 at Concession. Ranks 7th in Putting Average and 7th in Par 5 Performance. He finished Top 22 in seven of his last nine starts.

BACK — Max Homa 0.2 units at $190 or better

Matt Wallace

European Tour player who put in a great showing in the Valero Texas Open. Ranks Top 20 on both bentgrass greens and on fast greens. Ranks 4th on the European Tour in Scrambling and 8th in Putting Average while he ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 14th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green on the PGA Tour.

BACK — Matt Wallace 0.1 units at $210 or better


Lay

Jordan Spieth

Spieth is a former champion here and culminated a magnificent return to form with a win in the Valero Texas Open last week. Therein lay the problem though. Only two players have gone on to win a Masters after winning the weekend prior and he did finish T-46 back in November. He can win, of course, but at the price, he has to be a lay at anything shy of $34.

LAY — Jordan Spieth for 1 unit at up to $34


First Round Leader

Justin Rose

Rose has an outstanding record at Augusta and while his form suggests he is an unlikely victor, he can absolutely show up in the first round. Rose ranks third in the field in strokes gained in the first round at Augusta while he ranks fifth in strokes gained in first rounds overall dating back 50 rounds.

BACK — Justin Rose for 0.2 units at $80 or better


Top Senior

Phil Mickelson

There are seniors and then there are PGA Tour players who are over the age of 50. Mickelson is the latter. He has already won twice on the Champions Tour and is a three-time winner at Augusta. He has made the cut in five of his last six Masters showings including three Top 22 appearances. He looks a good thing.

BACK — Phil Mickelson for 3 units at $1.86 or better


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 63.05

Total Units Returned: 114.95

ROI: 82.31%


Biggest Winners

2021 Masters — Justin Rose First Round Leader at $80

2020 WGC-Mexico — Patrick Reed at $40

2020 US Open — Bryson DeChambeau at $30



Previous Tournaments

For previews on all the majors, head here.


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