Your Golf Betting Tips and Previews

The Open Championship returns after being canceled in 2020 with Royal St George’s playing host to the oldest championship in golf.

The Field
Strong Covid protocols and the upcoming Olympics have seen some notable withdrawals and absentees from the 2021 Open Championship led by Masters winner Hideki Matsuyama. Also missing are Bubba Watson, Matthew Wolff, Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, Zach Johnson, KH Lee, and Danny Lee.

Keys To Victory

• Greens In Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Proximity: 175-200 Yards
• Putting Average
• Birdie or Better
• Bogey Avoidance
• Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Off The Tee

Course Notes

Royal St George’s is hosting the Open Championship for the 15th time after first hosting the event in 1894. Greats Harry Vardon and Walter Hagen have won the Open twice at St George’s while Greg Norman holds the record shooting 13-under par in 1993. No player has shot lower than -5 to win aside from Norman with Sandy Lyle shooting +2 in 1985.

The last two winners at the course both won at longer than $301 with Ben Curtis winning on debut in 2003 and veteran Darren Clarke winning with no form in 2011. It is a Par 70 course with plenty of undulations and green run-offs in true links tradition. A strong iron game is the most important feature to have here while getting a hot putter is important, as it is with most Open Championship venues.

Tournament Winners
2019 – Shane Lowry
2018 – Francesco Molinari
2017 – Jordan Spieth
2016 – Henrik Stenson
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Phil Mickelson
2012 – Ernie Els
2011 – Darren Clarke*
2010 – Louis Oosthuizen

Weather Report
Thursday: 22 Degrees, 27 km/h winds, 20% chance of rain
Friday: 21 Degrees, 26 km/h winds, 10% chance of rain
Saturday: 19 Degrees, 26 km/h winds, 10% chance of rain
Sunday: 21 Degrees, 21 km/h winds, 10% chance of rain

Winner Profile
The Open Championship is the most open major championship from a betting perspective. Veterans and outsiders both have an excellent record in the Open. Historically playing in the Scottish Open the week prior has been a good guide.

Strong recent form is also important with most Open champions having won a title in the last 12 months and most within their last five starts. Major form needs to be accounted for with a Top 10 in the Open Championship prior a big tick in profiling.

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Betting Strategy

Jordan Spieth

The fairytale could be real. Spieth has rediscovered some of his old form this year breaking a long drought. He absolutely loves the Open Championship, winning in 2017 and finishing Top 20 in four of the last five Opens. He putts well on bentgrass and his form with the flat stick has been excellent.

BACK — 1.8 units at $21.0 or better

Tyrell Hatton

A pretty strong case can be made for Hatton being the best player in the world without a major now that Jon Rahm has one on his mantle. The Open has always been the tournament that is likely to most suit him too and two Top 6s in his last four suggest that is true. He has a great iron game and his putter can get as hot as anyone. He adores links golf and will be right in contention this week.

BACK — 1.4 units at $32.0 or better

Tommy Fleetwood

Let’s start off with the big elephant in the room. Tommy Fleetwood does not win. He has not won in a couple of years and has consistently threatened without breaking through. His links form through is irresistible. He finished 2nd in the 2020 Scottish Open and the 2018 Alfred Dunhill Links among other quality results that include a 2nd in last year’s Open Championship and 12th the year prior.

BACK — 0.2 units at $50.0 or better

Daniel Berger

Berger is an elite-level talent who has not yet broken through for a major but appears to be getting close. His profile is compelling. He has Top 13 finishes at two of his last five majors and has won this year when claiming the title at Pebble Beach. He is a Top 10 scorer who does his best work on bentgrass greens and has a wicked iron game.

BACK — 0.4 units at $75.0 or better

Sam Burns

Very keen on Sam Burns as the best roughie in this field. He has enjoyed a great year with a win at the Valspar and six other Top 20s. He played in Scotland last week and had a good tune-up for this. He ranks 2nd on Tour in Birdie or Better so his scoring puts him right in this.

BACK — 0.2 units at $200.0 or better

Keegan Bradley

Former PGA Championship winner who is playing pretty good golf. Finished Top 30 in 8 of his last 10 starts including a T-17 at the PGA Championship. His best result in that run was a very good second at the Valspar. A great iron player who ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 18th in GIR.

BACK — 0.1 units at $300.0 or better

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LAY

Rory McIlroy

There is no doubt Rory McIlroy has a marvelous Open record with four Top 5s in his last five tournaments including his win in 2014. He was a major disappointment when the tournament went to Royal Portrush in 2019, missing the cut, and McIlroy has been very poor of late, particularly since returning to Europe with a 59th in Ireland before a missed cut last week. Way too short.

LAY — Rory McIlroy for 1 unit at up to $24

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First Round Leader: Patrick Reed

Patrick Reed ranks 7th in the field in strokes gained in the first round and 4th in the field in strokes gained in the first round in difficult conditions. He ranks 10th in strokes gained on bentgrass greens in the opening round and 4th overall. He ranks 9th in first-round scoring in windy conditions.

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Top Australian

Lucas Herbert

Lucas Herbert comes into the Open Championship in tremendous form. He won the Irish Open two starts back before finishing just a shot back in the Scottish Open last week. He has a great record in links golf and desert gold including a win in the 2020 Dubai Desert Classic. He has the game to really contend here.

BACK — 2.5 units at $4.25 or better