Your Golf Betting Tips and Previews

This page is your one stop for Golf Betting Tips across the PGA Tour. Our expert Golf Analyst has been playing and betting on golf for decades. You will not find more in depth previews of upcoming tournaments on the PGA Tour, including the majors.

For more tips and strategies to improve your golf betting, head to the Betfair Hub. Head to the Betfair Exchange to find value odds on every golf tournament.


Get better value across the entire PGA Tour on the Betfair Exchange


RACV Royal Pines Resort Gold Coast, November 29th – December 2nd 2018

RACV Royal Pines Resort has three 18 hole combination golf courses, including the Graham Marsh re-designed Championship course which hosts the Australian PGA Championship and the RACV ALPG Players Championship.

Made up of the Green and Gold nines, the championship course has tight fairways, undulating greens and immaculately manicured swales, with each nine having its own distinctive challenges.

Set against a lush tropical background, just minutes from the beach to the east, the course will test the most astute golfer.

From the championship tees it measures 6,690 metres, with six par 4s that measure more than 400 metres, four par 5s that are over 500 metres long and a 201 metre par 3. It all adds up to a tough series of holes when you factor in the parade of bunkers that come into play on most holes.

The Blue nine to the west has a combination of deep bunkers and natural land formations with undulating but generous greens.

Weather Report

Thursday – Mostly Sunny, 28 Degrees, Precipitation 0%, Humidity 52%, Wind 23km/h

Friday – Partly Cloudy, 26 Degrees, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 59%, Wind 21km/h


Past Winners and Runners Up

YearWinnerScoreTo parRunner(s)-up
2017Cameron Smith270−18Jordan Zunic
2016Harold Varner III269−19Andrew Dodt
2015Nathan Holman288EDylan Frittelli, Harold Varner III

Top 25 Players – Form Review

PlayerEvent 1Event 2Event 3Event 4Event 5Scoring Average
1.        Marc Leishman 28026228127427668.65**
2.        Cameron Smith 28129827727228070.4
3.        Harold Varner 27026727114927968.66**
4.        Jason Scrivener26928627529821370.57
5.        Lucas Herbert 29028927828327970.95
6.        Adrian Otaegui27428626929915171.06
7.        Cameron Davis 28827627314528070.11
8.        Ryan Fox28729227529114871.83*
9.        Troy Merritt 27027828127514669.44**
10.     Marcus Fraser 14327921429228071.06
11.     Wade Ormsby 27728428628021670.68
12.     Dimitrios Papadatos27727528029014470.33
13.     Jake McLeod27826828515028670.39
14.     John Senden 28028321513827670.12
15.     Scott Hend 27228621915721471.75*
16.     Sean Crocker 14227727027728769.61**
17.     Andrew Johnston 14428827921329271.53
18.     Ganganjeet Bhullar29627529228327370.95
19.     Gavin Green 29528021628622172.11*
20.     Nick Taylor 13927428028514369.88**
21.     Renato Paratore 28827614715228471.69
22.     Rod Pampling 29227928414328671.33
23.     Curtis Luck 14214714028414271.25
24.     Geoff Ogilvy 14814214027515271.42
25.     Matt Millar 28027727827527369.15**

Poor Form*- Despite a 9th place finish last week Scott Hend has been “off” recently, along with Gavin Green and Ryan Fox. Geoff Ogilvy and Curtis Luck have struggled to make a cut between them recently!

Good Form** – Marc Leishman and Harold Varner lead the way of players with the hottest stroke average at present. These are followed by Mr Consistent Matt Millar, Troy Merritt, Sean Croker and Nick Taylor.

Please keep in mind that some of these players play on tours whereby scoring is a little lower than normal. One of the difficult things about getting an accurate form guide for an event like an Australian PGA, is that there are many players from many different tours.


History at the Event – Past 3 Years

Player2017        20162015Scoring Average
1.       Marc Leishman 274284DNP70.51**
2.       Cameron Smith 27028329070.25**
3.       Harold Varner 27626928869.42**
4.       Jason Scrivener28028929572
5.       Lucas Herbert 277DNP15772.21
6.       Adrian OtaeguiDNPDNPDNP72.03
7.       Cameron Davis DNP288DNP72.02
8.       Ryan Fox28828128571.17
9.       Troy Merritt DNPDNPDNP72.03
10.    Marcus Fraser 14614829974.13*
11.    Wade Ormsby 27814715172
12.    Dimitrios Papadatos15315529174.88*
13.    Jake McLeod27928515471.8
14.    John Senden DNP28029972.26
15.    Scott Hend DNP282DNP71.56
16.    Sean Crocker 277DNPDNP71.1
17.    Andrew Johnston DNPDNP DNP72.03
18.    Ganganjeet BhullarDNPDNPDNP72.03
19.    Gavin Green DNPDNPDNP72.03
20.    Nick Taylor DNPDNPDNP72.03
21.    Renato Paratore DNPDNPDNP72.03
22.    Rod Pampling 27928315571.7
23.    Curtis Luck 279147DNP71.41
24.    Geoff Ogilvy DNPDNPDNP72.03
25.    Matt Millar 29329229173.00*

Note – Most of these players haven’t played the past 3 years, so its difficult to get an accurate form guide of how they perform at the event.

Good History at Event** – Harold Varner has exceptional form at the Australian PGA Championship. Cameron Smith & Marc Leishman are very strong also in recent years.

Poor History at Event* – Dimi Papadatos, Marcus Fraser and Matt Millar have all struggled at this event in recent years.


My Rankings for the Week

Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

PlayerStroke AvMy Rankings My PriceBetfair
1.       Marc Leishman 70.2669.5196.5
2.       Harold Varner 70.9769.561110
3.       Sean Crocker 69.6769.881350
4.       Troy Merritt 70.8870.351534
5.       Cameron Smith 70.5170.41177
6.       Matt Millar71.570.582065
7.       Cameron Davis 70.7870.652329
8.       Nick Taylor 71.2770.72638
9.       Jason Scrivener71.0570.812917
10.    Adrian Otaegui70.2770.963221
11.    Jake McLeod71.5713540
12.    Lucas Herbert 70.5471.023819
13.    Dimitrios Papadatos70.1471.034236
14.    Wade Ormsby 71.1171.044634
15.    Ganganjeet Bhullar71.0971.185070
16.    John Senden 72.2771.195538
17.    Ryan Fox70.3771.236026
18.    Andrew Johnston 70.671.36565
19.    Curtis Luck 72.2671.617065
20.    Renato Paratore 71.4971.687560
21.    Scott Hend 71.6271.687565
22.    Rod Pampling 72.4571.778565
23.    Marcus Fraser 7271.889044
24.    Gavin Green 71.4771.889565
25.    Geoff Ogilvy 72.671.92100100

 “The Overs” – The market I think is correct with Marc Leishman on top, however $6.50 seems awfully short. Harold Varner deserves to be one of favorites, however I believe there are some big over with players like – Sean Croker, Troy Merritt & Matt Millar. Could be a good top 20 play with some of these “overs”.

 “The Under’s” – I am happy to oppose Lucas Herbert at the odds, he has just dropped off form a lately, along with Ryan Fox. Marcus Fraser despite a strong finish at the Australian Open has had an ordinary year and after missing the cut last week and poor form in recent years at the event, I am happy to oppose.

Compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find outright betting “overs” and “under’s”, and apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.


In-Play Trading Opportunities

I will be playing the Par 5’s this week as I usually always do. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed, particularly if they have an iron into the green and the green is not heavily surrounded by trouble.

Note – 75% of leaders that lead by a shot entering the final round don’t win, and they average worse than the PGA Tour average. This can be a great strategy for 2 ball match betting and laying the leader in play, but only if they are below $3. We have seen this recently on the European Tour.

Difficult driving holes and players with poor driving accuracy percentages. If they find themselves in contention, lay tee-shots and re-back after the ball comes to rest.


Pre Tournament Bets

I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool. Below are some bet options to choose from.

Wait until Wednesday night until the liquidity comes into the pools to place your bets!

 BACK – C Davis to beat D Papadatos at $1.85 for 2 units

 BACK – A Otaegui to beat R Fox at $1.90 for 2 units

 BACK – W Ormsby to beat M Fraser at $1.90 for 2 units

 BACK – S Crocker to finish Top 20 at $4 for 1 unit

 BACK – Troy Merritt to finish Top 20 at $2.50 for 2 units

 BACK – Matthew Millar to finish Top 20 at $4.50 for 1 unit

 LAY – Lucas Herbert to finish Top 5 at $.50 for 1 unit

 LAY – Ryan Fox to finish Top 5 at $6.50 for 1 unit



Previous Tournaments

For previews on all the majors, head here.

The Metropolitan Golf Club, Melbourne, Australia, Nov 22-25

The format is 72 holes stroke-play. The first and third day are best ball and the second and fourth days are foursomes.

Weather Report

Thursday – Rain, 15 Degrees, Precipitation 90%, Humidity 68%, Wind 34km/h

Friday – Rain, 15 Degrees, Precipitation 80%, Humidity 70%, Wind 37km/h


Past Winners and Runners Up

YearCountryTeamRunners-up
2016 DenmarkSøren Kjeldsen & Thorbjørn OlesenLi Haotong & Wu Ashun, Victor Dubuisson & Romain Langasque, Rickie Fowler & Jimmy Walker
2013 AustraliaJason Day & Adam ScottMatt Kuchar & Kevin Streelman
2011 United StatesMatt Kuchar & Gary WoodlandIan Poulter & Justin Rose, Martin Kaymer & Alex Čejka
2009 ItalyEdoardo Molinari & Francesco MolinariHenrik Stenson & Robert Karlsson, [9] Rory McIlroy & Graeme McDowell
2008 SwedenRobert Karlsson & Henrik StensonMiguel Ángel Jiménez & Pablo Larrazábal

Top 25 Current Form Review

TeamEvent 1Event 2Event 3Event 4Event 5Scoring Average
1.        Australia (M Leishman & C Smith)280+281262+298281+277274+272276+28069.52**
2.        England (T Hatton & I Poulter)281+291289+288279+278274+276270+14570.26
3.        United States (K Stanley & M Kuchar) 289+285289+262270+278277+283275+28069.70**
4.        Denmark (T Olesen & S Kjeldsen)287+287271+214283+291149+286272+27770.73
5.        South Africa (D Fritelli & E Van Rooyen)275+282287+297285+278281+289273+14870.92
6.        Belgium (T Pieters & T Detry)277+283274+282287+269276+153291+28670.47
7.        China (Li Haotong & W Ashun)284+285281+286267+280284+300286+27670.73
8.        Ireland (S Lowry & P Dunne)284+286289+296273+274205+291290+22471.36
9.        Scotland (R Knox & M Laird)285+140275+273303+275142+284280+28670.64
10.     South Korea (An Byeong-hun & K Si-Woo)281+272294+271284+281270+269273+274
11.     New Zealand (R Fox & M Brown)287+147292+146275+280291+269148+28669.23**
12.     France (A Levy & M Lorenzo-Vera)285+284151+285272+279290+292291+21671.49
13.     Spain (A Otaegui & J Campillo)274+291286+291269+278299+298151+22271.86
14.     Germany M Kaymer & M Kieffer)292+297287+281270+209149+148215+21671.64
15.     Japan (S Kodaira & H Tanihara)275+285293+294279+278281+152148+21771.49
16.     Thailand (K Aphibarnrat & P Meesawat)276+282291+281275+295280+288277+27670.53
17.     India (A Lahiri & G Bhullar)148+296268+275140+292284+283144+27370.67
18.     Sweden (A Bjork & J Lagergren)277+290295+288273+282290+148281+28971.39
19.     Italy (A Pavan & R Paratore)281+288285+276277+147289+152287+28471.28
20.     Canada (A Hadwin & N Taylor)268+139291+274278+280146+285268+14369.76**
21.     Finland (M Korhonen & M Ilonen)293+287286+149278+284207+145292+15171.88
22.     Mexico (A Ancer & R Diaz)272+142271+278 267+148294+142268+26869.11**
23.     Netherlands (J Luiten & D Huizing)281+273288+143275+284211+152144+27970.61
24.     Wales (S Manley & B Dredge)295+216278+151145+219291+271284+27271.24
25.     Malaysia (G Green & B Leong)295+281280+281216+157286+279221+27971.53
26.     Zimbabwe (S Vincent & B Follett-Smith)287+166293+144285+209286+149279+19774.06*
27.     Venezuela (J Vegas & J Naffah)274+163273+171144+153285+147145+16473.81*
28.     Greece (P Karmis & A Tranacher)203+159286+160215+164212+158202+14773.31*

Poor Form*- Betfair Market has 26th,27th & 28th position all correct. I am surprised there is not exemption qualifying criteria for the event. They seem to let players play the event that cannot make a cut.

Good Form** – Of the roughie’s in the Betfair market, Mexico, Canada and South Korea’s current form is good enough to surprise this week. Australia and United States look strong contenders based on current form.


2018 Total Stroke Average

TeamPlayer 1 Player 2 Total
1. Australia (M Leishman & C Smith)70.2670.5170.39
2. England (T Hatton & I Poulter)70.0970.5970.34
3. United States (K Stanley & M Kuchar) 70.469.2369.82
4. Denmark (T Olesen & S Kjeldsen)69.8970.6270.26
5. South Africa (D Fritelli & E Van Rooyen)69.9970.2670.13
6. Belgium (T Pieters & T Detry)70.1570.170.13
7. China (Li Haotong & W Ashun)70.3270.8570.59
8. Ireland (S Lowry & P Dunne)70.4770.870.63
9. Scotland (R Knox & M Laird)70.5570.8470.7
10. South Korea (An Byeong-hun & Kim Si-Woo)70.1971.3770.78
11. New Zealand (R Fox & M Brown)70.3771.570.94
12. France (A Levy & M Lorenzo-Vera)70.7870.3670.57
13. Spain (A Otaegui & J Campillo)70.2770.3170.29
14.Germany (M Kaymer & M Kieffer)70.9370.7570.84
15. Japan (S Kodaira & H Tanihara)72.1870.7371.46
16. Thailand (K Aphibarnrat & P Meesawat)70.2771.570.89
17. India (A Lahiri & G Bhullar)70.6671.0970.37
18. Sweden (A Bjork & J Lagergren)70.370.9670.63
19. Italy (A Pavan & R Paratore)70.2571.4970.87
20. Canada (A Hadwin & N Taylor)70.7571.2771.01
21.Finland (M Korhonen & M Ilonen)70.5871.4371.01
22. Mexico (A Ancer & R Diaz)70.6671.7371.2
23. Netherlands (J Luiten & D Huizing)70.2270.2170.21
24. Wales (S Manley & B Dredge)7170.0470.52
25. Malaysia (G Green & B Leong)71.4771.571.48
26. Zimbabwe (S Vincent & B Follett-Smith)71.57472.75
27. Venezuela (J Vegas & J Naffah)71.277472.63
28. Greece (P Karmis & A Tranacher)717472.5

My Rankings for the Week

Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

TeamMy Rankings My PriceBetfair
1.       United States 69.74610
2.       South Korea 69.75816
3.       Australia 69.81105.5
4.       Mexico 69.811036
5.       Canada 70.181344
6.       England 70.29169
7.       Belgium 70.351912.5
8.       Netherlands 70.4822110
9.       Denmark 70.572515.5
10.    India70.572565
11.    South Africa 70.652820
12.    Thailand 70.652850
13.    Scotland 70.663222
14.    China 70.683618
15.    Wales 7140170
16.    Ireland 71.124420
17.    New Zealand 71.124450
18.    Sweden 71.144846
19.    Italy71.144865
20.    France 71.185236
21.    Malaysia 71.1956260
22.    Spain 71.346032
23.    Germany 71.376548
24.    Japan 71.487548
25.    Finland 71.5910080
26.    Greece 73.04200600
27.    Venezuela73.42500500
28.    Zimbabwe 73.62500500

 “The Overs” – United States, South Korea, Mexico & Canada are nice overs this week. The huge roughie overs are Netherlands, India, Wales, Thailand and Malaysia.

 “The Under’s” – England, Australia, Belgium and Denmark are a little too short for my liking. They can definitely figure in the tournament but I will not be backing them at the odds. I think Ireland could be a good “lay” for a top 4 at $3.90.

Compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find outright betting “overs” and “under’s”, and apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.


In Play Trading Opportunities

Best Ball is low scoring game and therefore the par 5’s will be eaten up by the players. Use the in-play par 5 strategies mentioned in previous articles.

Foursomes is a much higher scoring game and “laying” tee shots and “re-backing” after the ball comes to rest can be a good strategy if there is liquidity in the market and its compressed on the back & lay side. Difficult par 4 tee shots could be a great strategy to use this week.


Betting Strategy

 BACK – Korea to beat Belgium for 2 units

 BACK – Korea to finish Top 4 at $3.30 for 2 units

 BACK – USA to finish Top 4 at $2.90 for 1 unit

 BACK – Canada to finish Top 4 at $9 for 1 unit

 BACK – Netherlands to finish Top 4 at $25 for 1 unit

 LAY – Ireland to finish Top 4 at $3.90 for 2 units

 BACK – Back India to finish Top 4 at $12 for 1 unit

The Lakes Golf Club, Sydney, Australia, 15-18th Nov

The Lakes is a unique Australian golf course. It is one of very few where natural water hazards are a part of the play, and at the opening hole and the three back nine par fives water is the dominant hazard. It is both thrilling to negotiate and a nagging concern. It was more than a concern when in his own 1998 Greg Norman Classic the great man splashed three long irons into the lake fronting the 14th green on his way to a twelve.

The course is split by the airport to city freeway and seven of the front nine holes play on the ‘other side’ of the road. The rolling dunes so characteristic of this part of Sydney make for some interesting golf and great power is of little advantage unless its use is well considered.

The seaside winds are an almost constant presence and whilst the fairways are of width and the players are afforded much space to drive into, it is left to the golfer to work out where best to play. It is the making of those choices that makes golf such a fascinating game to play and this is one of Australia’s most interesting courses.

Weather Report

Thursday – Cloudy, 21 Degrees, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 76%, Wind 34km/h

Friday – Partly Cloudy, 20 Degrees, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 68%, Wind 26km/h


Past Winners and Runners Up

YearWinnerScoreTo Par Margin ofRubber(s)-up
2017Cameron Davis273−111 strokeJonas Blixt, Matt Jones
2016Jordan Spieth (2)276−12PlayoffAshley Hall, Cameron Smith
2015Matt Jones276−81 strokeAdam Scott, Jordan Spieth
2014Jordan Spieth271−136 strokesRod Pampling
2013Rory McIlroy270−181 strokeAdam Scott
2012Peter Senior (2)284−41 strokeBrendan Jones
2011Greg Chalmers (2)275−131 strokeJohn Senden
2010Geoff Ogilvy269−194 strokesMatt Jones, Alistair Presnell
2009Adam Scott273−155 strokesStuart Appleby
2008Tim Clark279−9PlayoffMathew Goggin
2007Craig Parry277−111 strokeWon Joon Lee, Nick O'Hern, Brandt Snedeker

Current Form Review

PlayerEvent 1Event 2Event 3Event 4Event 5Scoring Average
1.         Matt Kuchar 26227828328028369.3
2.         Cameron Smith 29827727228028270.45
3.         Brandt Snedeker29128328527428370.8
4.         Keegan Bradley28127128426028168.85**
5.         Byeong Hun An29428427027327069.55
6.         Cameron Davis 27627314528026668.88**
7.         Aniban Lahiri 26814028414414770.21
8.         Abraham Ancer 27126729426827668.80**
9.         Brendan Steele14327928128528070.44
10.      Nicolas Colsaerts 2892737628027570.17
11.      Rhein Gibson 14527414727628370.31
12.      Cameron John27029127927527169.3
13.      Dimitrios Papadatos27528029014427870.38
14.      Marcus Fraser 21429228014628371.47*
15.      Rod Pampling 27928414328614671.13
16.      John Senden 28321513827614370.33
17.      Matthew Griffin 21020927528128169.77
18.      Zach Murray 28227228215027770.16
19.      Andrew Dodt 21529421828214372.00*
20.      Brett Coletta 27626827227813968.50**
21.      Cameron Percy 13827427514526968.81**
22.      Ben Eccles 27427914727914670.31
23.      Michael Sim 28727727215129271.05
24.      Matthew Millar 27727827527328369.3
25.      Adam Bland 29814722428214473.00*

Poor Form*- Adam Bland is in horrible form at present, along Andrew Dodt. Marcus Fraser has also been out of form as well.

Good Form** – Brett Coletta, Cameron Percy, Cameron Davis, Abraham Ancer and Keegan Bradley all have low stroke averages at present. Please keep in mind that some of these players play on tours whereby scoring is a little lower than normal. One of the difficult things about getting an accurate form guide for an event like an Australian Open, is there are many players from many different tours playing.


History at Event – Last 3 Years

Player201720162015Scoring Average
1.        Matt Kuchar DNPDNPDNP71.95
2.        Cameron Smith 27527628469.58**
3.        Brandt SnedekerDNPDNPDNP71.95
4.        Keegan BradleyDNPDNPDNP71.95
5.        Byeong Hun AnDNPDNPDNP71.95
6.        Cameron Davis 273145DNP70.58
7.        Aniban Lahiri DNPDNPDNP71.95
8.        Abraham Ancer DNPDNPDNP71.95
9.        Brendan SteeleDNPDNPDNP71.95
10.     Nicolas Colsaerts DNPDNP28671.8
11.     Rhein Gibson 28328328370.75
12.     Cameron John285DNPDNP71.71
13.     Dimitrios Papadatos15228315673.88*
14.     Marcus Fraser DNPDNP14772.46
15.     Rod Pampling 28727827870.25
16.     John Senden DNP28528471.4
17.     Matthew Griffin 145284DNP71.65
18.     Zach Murray (AM)15029114873.62*
19.     Andrew Dodt DNP14514772.65
20.     Brett Coletta 14614514873.16*
21.     Cameron Percy DNPDNPDNP71.95
22.     Ben Eccles 284DNP15272.42
23.     Michael Sim DNP29129372.65
24.     Matthew Millar 15014429273.25*
25.     Adam Bland 286DNPDNP71.8

Note – Most of these players haven’t played the past 3 years, so its difficult to get an accurate form guide of how they perform at the event.

Good History at Event** – Cameron Smith has a very solid stroke average the Australian Open

Poor History at Event* – Matt Millar, Brett Coletta, Dimi Papadatos and Zach Murray have struggled to play well in recent years.


My Rankings

Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

PlayerStroke AvMy Rankings My PriceBetfair Price
1.        Cameron Davis 70.7869.79921
2.        Keegan Bradley70.369.851111
3.        Abraham Ancer 70.6669.951322
4.        Cameron Percy 70.9170.031565
5.        Brett Coletta 70.87 (adjusted)70.071765
6.        Matt Kuchar 70.4670.132010.5
7.        Byeong Hun An70.1970.162316
8.        Cameron Smith 70.5170.322610
9.        Cameron John71.50 (adjusted)70.442950
10.     Rhein Gibson 70.5370.463248
11.     Matthew Griffin 70.9570.483565
12.     Aniban Lahiri 70.6670.653829
13.     Nicolas Colsaerts 70.8170.664242
14.     Matthew Millar 71.50 (adjusted)70.694665
15.     Brandt Snedeker70.3770.855012
16.     Dimitrios Papadatos70.1470.885550
17.     Brendan Steele71.0270.896029
18.     Zach Murray (AM)71.00 (adjusted)71.016580
19.     Ben Eccles 71.3671.017080
20.     John Senden 72.6371.287550
21.     Rod Pampling 72.4471.428050
22.     Michael Sim 72.00 (adjusted)71.638590
23.     Marcus Fraser 7271.819050
24.     Andrew Dodt 71.9372.099590
25.     Adam Bland 71.4972.2910090

Note – Nick Cullen was just outside the 25 Betfair Market rankings, however he did lead the European Tour Challenge Tour Stroke Average Rankings this year with a very impressive 69.15 average.

 “The Overs” – I have defending champion Cameron Davis favorite at $9. Abraham Ancer at $13, and Cameron Percy and Brett Coletta at $15 and $17 respectively. Keeping in mind that Brett Coletta is hard to get an accurate form guide on and Cameron Percy has been playing in some low scoring events recently.

 “The Under’s” – Brandt Snedeker in under the odds in my opinion. He hasn’t been in good form and hasn’t played this course before. I also have Brendan Steele as under the odds.

Compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find outright betting “overs” and “under’s”, and also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.


In Play Trading Opportunites

This tournament could be high scoring due to predicted winds. Could be a good option to “back” a player after the morning round day 1, and then “lay” them before they commence there afternoon Day 2 round, as they could easily shorten in the market.

I will be playing the Par 5’s this week as I usually always do. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed, particularly if they have an iron into the green and the green is not heavily surrounded by trouble.

Note – 75% of leaders that lead by a shot entering the final round don’t win, and they average worse than the PGA Tour average. This can be a great strategy for 2 ball match betting and laying the leader in play, but only if they are below $3. Two weeks ago Li Haotong was $2 entering the final round and lost, he struggled with his game most of the day. This I notice is a common trait with leaders entering the final day, put simply “nerves”! Sergio Garcia did the same last week entering the last round at $1.80.

Difficult driving holes and players with poor driving accuracy percentages. If they find themselves in contention, lay tee-shots and re-back after the ball comes to rest.

High winds are expected this week, it could be a good opportunity to look at difficult holes playing into the wind, and easy holes playing downwind for good trading opportunities in-play.


Betting Strategy

I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool. Below are some bet options to choose from.

Wait until Wednesday night until the liquidity comes into the pools to place your bets!

 BACK – Cameron Percy Top 20 @ $3.50 2 Units

 LAY – Brandt Snedeker Top 5 @ $3.50 2 Units

 BACK – Back Cameron Davis Top 20 @ $1.90 1 Unit

Eastlake GC, Atlanta, Georgia, September 20-23th

We have arrived! The Fed Ex Cup concludes here at Eastlake GC with the Tour Championship. Eastlake is designed on two narrow strips of land characterized by sandy soil, wetlands and flat sections mixed with undulations.

Moderate at 5812 meters, Eastlake hides some of its distance in elevation changes and some of the dog legs will make players think about taking driver or not. The course is always presented in pristine condition, and it sure will make for an exciting week as Xander Schauffele tries to defend his title.

Weather Report

Thursday – 31 degrees, mostly sunny, precipitation 0%, humidity 55%, Wind 13km/h

Friday – 31 degrees, mostly sunny, precipitation 10%, humidity 60%, 11km/h

Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

YearPlayerScoreTo parTo ParMarginRunner(s)-up
2017Xander Schauffele268−121 strokeJustin Thomas
2016Rory McIlroy268−12PlayoffKevin Chappell, Ryan Moore
2015Jordan Spieth271−94 strokesDanny Lee, Justin Rose, Henrik Stenson
2014Billy Horschel269−113 strokesJim Furyk, Rory McIlroy
2013Henrik Stenson267−133 strokesJordan Spieth, Steve Stricker
2012Brandt Snedeker270−103 strokesJustin Rose
2011Bill Haas272−8PlayoffHunter Mahan
2010Jim Furyk272−81 strokeLuke Donald
2009Phil Mickelson 271−93 strokesTiger Woods
2008Camilo Villegas273−7PlayoffSergio García
2007Tiger Woods 257−238 strokesMark Calcavecchia, Zach Johnson

Current Form Review

Please note Last 5 event on the PGA Tour.

PlayerEvent 1Event 2Event 3Event 4Event 5Scoring Average to 72
1.        Justin Rose2ND 2ND MCT19 T269.62
2.        Dustin Johnson T24T7T11 T27T369.6
3.        Rory McIlroy 5THT12T50T6T2 69.8
4.        Justin ThomasT12T24T8T61ST 69.1
5.        Brooks Koepka T19T12T81ST 5TH 69.1
6.        Tiger Woods T6T24T402ND T31 69.9
7.        Rickie Fowler T8T12T17T28T670.15
8.        Bryson DeChambeauT191ST1ST MC30TH 69.44
9.        Tony Finau T8T42ND T42T1069.4
10.     Hideki Matsuyama T15T4 T15T11T3569.35
11.     Jason Day T24MCT20T19T1070.56
12.     Francesco Molinari T8MCT6T391ST 70.28
13.     Tommy FleetwoodT8T24T20 T35T1469.95
14.     Jon Rahm T24T43MCT4T1770.61
15.     Billy Horschel T3W/DT3T11T3568.87
16.     Webb Simpson T6T49T282ND T1969.45
17.     Xander Schauffele T3T49MC T3568TH 71.28
18.     Patrick Cantlay T55T24T8T27T670.25
19.     Bubba Watson T16T7T34MCT3170.83
20.     Patrick Reed T19T35T25MCT2870.73
21.     Paul Casey W/DT21T60MCT3171.93
22.     Keegan Bradley1ST T49T34T424TH 69.5
23.     Gary Woodland T12T24T48T6T1770
24.     Phil Mickelson T58T12T15MCT2470.89
25.     Cameron Smith T653RDT3T5623RD 70.55
26.     Marc Leishman T41T21T34T71 T1470.85
27.     Aaron Wise T16T69T5MCT670.44
28.     Kyle Stanley T45T12T28MC2ND 70.28
29.     Kevin NaT12MCT15T19T3170.44
30. Patton KizzireT61T71T60MCT3172.05

Poor Form*- Players Averaging over par –    Patton Kizzire comes into the Tour Championship in poor form, closely followed by Paul Casey and defending champion Xander Schauffele.

Good Form** – Believe it or not, and despite his withdrawal at the Dell Technologies Championship recently, Billy Horschel has the lowest stroke average in the past 5 events played. Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka are the next best and playing very well at present. Then there is then a group of players, which include Justin Rose, who has had three 2nd’s in his past 5 starts.


History at the event the past 3 years

Player201720162015Scoring Average
1. Justin Rose T10DNPT2-1.37
2. Dustin Johnson T17T6T5-0.91
3. Rory McIlroy DNP1ST T16-1.38
4. Justin Thomas 2ND T6DNP-2
5. Brooks Koepka 6TH DNPT18-0.5
6. Tiger Woods DNPDNPDNP
7. Rickie Fowler T26DNPT120.75
8. Bryson DeChambeauDNPDNPDNP
9. Tony FinauT7DNPDNP-1.75
10. Hideki Matsuyama T265TH T12 0
11. Jason Day T17W/DT10-0.5
12. Francesco Molinari DNPDNPDNP
13. Tommy Fleetwood DNPDNPDNP
14. Jon Rahm T7DNP DNP -1.75
15. Billy Horschel DNPDNPDNP
16. Webb Simpson T13DNPDNP-1.25
17. Xander Schauffele 1ST DNP DNP-3
18. Patrick Cantlay T20DNP DNP 0
19. Bubba Watson DNP T10 T5-0.75
20. Patrick Reed T13T2427TH 1
21. Paul Casey 5TH 4TH T5 -1.83
22. Keegan Bradley DNP DNP DNP
23. Gary Woodland 19TH T10 DNP -0.38
24. Phil Mickelson DNP 22ND DNP 0.25
25. Cameron Smith DNPDNPDNP
26. Marc LeishmanT24DNP DNP 0.75
27. Aaron Wise DNP DNPDNP
28. Kyle Stanley T20 DNP DNP0
29. Kevin Na DNP 29TH T161.75
30. Patton Kizzire DNPDNPDNP

Note – Because of the small field size & strict exemption criteria, many players do not have a lot of form at the event, so it’s difficult to assess.

Good History at Event – Hard to go past Justin Rose, Justin Thomas and Paul Casey who haven’t missed a top 10 between them in recent years at Eastlake. I do think Paul Casey may struggle this year based on his recent form lately. Tony Finau has only played once in the past 3 years and finished 7th.

Poor History at Event – Patrick Reed and Kevin Na have struggled at the Tour Championship in the small man field, and the usually consistent Rickie Fowler is yet to fire at Eastlake the past few years.


My Rankings for the 2018 Tour Championship

PlayerMy Rankings My PriceBetfair
1.       Billy Horschel 69.7410.530
2.       Tony Finau 69.761130
3.       Justin Thomas 69.761215
4.       Dustin Johnson 69.7813.512
5.       Justin Rose 69.8715.511
6.       Brooks Koepka 70.031616
7.       Webb Simpson 70.071829
8.       Bryson DeChambeau 70.112022
9.       Hideki Matsuyama 70.192226
10.    Keegan Bradley 70.22470
11.    Tommy Fleetwood 70.32630
12.    Rory McIlroy 70.322810.5
13.    Tiger Woods 70.413013.5
14.    Rickie Fowler 70.543225
15.    Patrick Cantlay 70.613446
16.    Gary Woodland70.613465
17.    Jon Rahm 70.633834
18.    Francesco Molinari 70.654228
19.    Jason Day 70.674634
20.    Kyle Stanley 70.735090
21.    Aaron Wise 70.85570
22.    Bubba Watson 70.856042
23.    Kevin Na 70.876590
24.    Cameron Smith 70.947090
25.    Phil Mickelson 71.027580
26.    Marc Leishman 71.078070
27.    Xander Schauffele71.168534
28.    Patrick Reed 71.189050
29.    Paul Casey 71.319560
30.    Patton Kizzire71.71100370

“The Overs” – This week has thrown up a few surprises! My form has Billy Horschel playing very well, having the lowest stroke average to par the previous 5 events. He is also 148 under par from 84 rounds this year, which is very strong. Tony Finau ranks 2nd in my rankings, clearly one of the hottest players in the world at present. These two players along with Keegan Bradley, Webb Simpson, Gary Woodland, and Kyle Stanley are big “overs” this week.

 “The Under’s” – I have Rory McIIroy and Tiger Woods as “unders”, they are both playing well enough to contend, however I can not be on them at their current price. Even though their recent form is reasonably strong, neither of them have cracked 100 under par for the year. Xander Schauffele, Patrick Reed and Paul Casey have all been out of form. Ill be looking at some tournament match bet opportunities on these players.

Not only can you compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find outright betting “overs” and “unders”, but you can also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.


In Play Trading Opportunities

Assess the scores after Day 1 and if the tournament is low scoring then apply my trading strategies mentioned in previous articles. “Laying” morning player with a good scoring and “Re-Backing” before commencing round 2.

I will be playing the Par 5’s this week as I usually always do. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed, particularly if they have an iron into the green and the green is not heavily surrounded by trouble.

Note – 75% of leaders that lead by a shot entering the final round don’t win, and they average worse than the PGA Tour average. Therefore it can be great for 2 ball match betting and laying the leader in play, but only if they are below $3.

Difficult driving holes and players with poor driving accuracy percentages. If they find them selves in contention, lay tee-shots and re-back after the ball comes to rest.


Pre Tournament Bets

I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool.

Below are some bet options to choose from, although keep in mind that some of the match bets are difficult this week.

 BACK – Tony Finau to beat Hideki Matsuyama for 2 units

 BACK – Bryson DeChambeau to beat Rickie Fowler for 1 units

 BACK – Justin Rose to beat Rory McIlroy for 1 unit

 BACK – Billy Horschel Top 10 at $3.30 for 1 unit

 BACK –  Tony Finau to finish Top 10 at $3.30 for 1 unit

 BACK – Gary Woodland to finish Top 10 at $5 for 1 unit

 BACK – Kyle Stanley to finish Top 10 at $5 for 1 unit

 LAY- Paul Casey to finish Top 10 at $3.40 for 1 unit

Le Golf National, Paris, France, 28th-30th September 2018

With all four majors and the Fed Ex Cup done, all focus now switches to the Ryder Cup. The 42nd Ryder Cup will be held at La Golf National, in Guyancourt, France, which is a suburb southwest of Paris and will no doubt be in outstanding condition for France’s first hosting of the Ryder Cup.

With thick rough and plenty of water the par 72 layout measuring 6703m will be a true test, especially if the wind shows its teeth. Team USA leads the overall Ryder Cup 25-13. There have been only 2 ties in Ryder Cup history.

Weather Report

Friday – 23 degrees, sunny, precipitation 0%, humidity 59%, Wind 23km/h

Saturday – 18 degrees, sunny, precipitation 0%, humidity 52%, 21km/h


Ryder Cup Stats

Since 1979 the Ryder Cup as we know it – Team Europe against Team USA – was formed to make the contest a closer contested event than it had been in previous years.
As a result, the Ryder Cup has become one of the world’s greatest sporting events. Every two years, 24 of the finest players from Europe and the United States go face-to-face in match play format.

Theatre, improbable acts of greatness, team cohesion and sportsmanship under the highest possible pressure are on show during three of the most fascinating days in sport, capturing millions of viewers around the globe. Of the 40 matches participated in cup history, USA overwhelmingly lead Europe by 25 wins to 13. However, with Team Europe only forming in 1979, this is a misleading statistic and one many disregard when assessing the modern day Ryder Cup.


Since the introduction of European players, of the previous 18 editions Europe have been the superior team, winning a total of 10 Ryder Cup events, losing seven and drawing one. Notably, Team Europe have been dominant on home soil, winning six and drawing once from nine matches, whereas USA have only won five from the nine editions to date.

Furthermore, the Europeans have been strong away from home also, winning four from nine in what are regarded as intimidating and hostile conditions, while the Americans have only managed two wins and one draw on European soil. Overall, Europe have produced their best golf more often than not, but with Team USA more likely to win at home, the chances of them preventing four European wins in a row is greater.


Ryder Cup Players Current Form Review

Team USA Event 1Event 2Event 3Event 4Event 5Scoring Average To Par 72
1.        B DeChambeau19T191ST1ST MC-2.55
2.        T FinauT15T8T42ND T42-2.4
3.        R Fowler T7T8T12T17T28-1.7
4.        D Johnson 3RD T24T7T11 T27-2.25
5.        B Koepka T26T19T12T81ST -2.25
6.        P Mickelson 30th T58T12T15MC-0.22
7.        P Reed 28TH T19T35T25MC-0.66
8.        W Simpson T4T6T49T282ND -2.5
9.        J Spieth T55T12T25T12T60-1.15
10.     J Thomas T7T12T24T8T6-2.4
11.     B Watson T29T16T7T34MC-0.61
12.     T Woods 1ST T6T24T402ND-2.65

Team USA Total Stroke Average: – 1.78     

Team EuropeEvent 1Event 2Event 3Event 4Event 5Scoring Average To Par 72
1.       P Casey T11W/DT21T60MC-0.52
2.       T Fleetwood T11T8T24T20 T35-1.95
3.       S Garcia T24MCT39MCMC-0.64
4.       T Hatton T29T12T20T10T28-1.95
5.       R McIlroy T75THT12T50T6-2.15
6.       F Molinari T21T8MCT6T39-1.22
7.       A Noren T24T43MCMCT31-0.68
8.       T Olesen T20T204TH T56T3-2.3
9.       I Poulter T51MCT48T31T10-0.88
10.    J Rahm T11T24T43MCT4-1.33
11.    J Rose T42ND2NDMCT19-2.38
12.    H Stenson T29T69T20MCT39-1.19

Team Europe Total Stroke Average: -1.43

Team USA come into the Ryder Cup with their players in better current form than Team Europe. The real test however will be Team USA dealing with playing on European soil and the European crowd. Team Europe are very strong on home soil, winning six and have only lost once since 1979.


Individual Rankings for the 2018 Ryder Cup

Betting Note – When players are paired together for the teams matches, I suggest reviewing which pairing have the stronger rankings.

PlayerMy Rankings Team
Dustin Johnson -2.35Team USA
Justin Rose -2.32Team Europe
Tiger Woods -2.23Team USA
Justin Thomas -2.23Team USA
Tony Finau -2.23Team USA
Bryson DeChambeau -2.17Team USA
Webb Simpson -2.16Team USA
Thorbjorn Olesen -2.07Team Europe
Brooks Koepka -1.89Team USA
Rory McIlroy -1.89Team Europe
Tommy Fleetwood -1.86Team Europe
Rickie Fowler -1.7Team USA
Tyrrell Hatton -1.42Team Europe
Jon Rahm -1.38Team Europe
Henrik Stenson -1.29Team Europe
Jordan Spieth -1.28Team USA
Francesco Molinari -1.17Team Europe
Patrick Reed -0.82Team USA
Ian Poulter -0.82Team Europe
Bubba Watson -0.78Team USA
Paul Casey -0.68Team Europe
Alex Noren -0.66Team Europe
Phil Mickelson -0.45Team USA
Sergio Garcia -0.41Team Europe

It is a tall order for Justin Rose to carry Team Europe to victory in the Ryder Cup. Team USA are very strong in the top order this year. The only advantage Team Europe have, is that it is on home soil and Europe have proven to be strong at home, however this year I believe Team USA will overcome this and win the Ryder Cup.


Pre Tournament Bets

Great to see Tiger win last week and we had a nice big collect. Lets see if we can do it again!

 BACK – Team USA to win the Ryder Cup for 3 units

 BACK – Team USA Day 1 Fourballs Winner for 1 unit

 BACK – Team USA Day 1 Foursomes Winner for 1 unit

Firestone CC, South Course, Akron, Ohio, Aug 2-5, 2018

Firestone, South Course was originally designed by Bert Way, but redesigned by Robert Trent Jones Sr in 1960. Firestone is best known for its legendary history of tournament play, and length. The par 70 layout measures 7283 yards, and will definitely be a stern test for the shorter length players. There are only two par 5’s at Firestone, the 2nd hole and the 16th hole, however the 16th hole is a beast, measuring 667 yards, and with a pond just short of the green, it captures its far share of errant shots. The tough holes, I will be looking closely at this week, are the 18th hole, measuring 464 yards and surrounded by bunkers with a long narrow fairway.

The Par 3 15th hole, measuring 221 yards is a tough hole, and getting the ball close to the hole can pose its share of problems. The other difficult par 3 is on the front nine, the 200 yard 5th hole, most players will be coming in with a 5 or 6 iron, however when the wind blows this course easily become a 4 or 3 iron. It’s a tough Par 3 to play, right before reaching arguably the toughest hole at Firestone, the 6th hole. The 6th hole has ranked the toughest hole and second toughest at Firestone over the years, it will be one of my main focal holes for betting this week.

Weather Report

Thursday – Humidity 65%, Wind WSW 7-10mph, Temperature a high of 83F. Will be partly to mostly cloudy with a stray shower or possible thunderstorm.

Friday – Humidity 75%, Wind SSW 6-10mph, Temperature 74F. Partly cloudy skies all day.


Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

YearWinnerRunner Up
2017 Hideki MatsuyamaZach Johnson
2016 Dustin Johnson Scott Piercy
2015Shane Lowry Bubba Watson
2014 Rory McIIroyS Garcia
2013 Tiger Woods** Keegan Bradley* , Henrik Stenson
2012Keegan Bradley*im Furyk , Steve Stricker
2011Adam Scott Luke Donald , Rickie Fowler
2010Hunter MahanRyan Palmer
2009 Tiger Woods** Robert Allenby
2008Vijay SinghStuart Appleby
2007 Tiger Woods**Justin Rose , Rory Sabbatini

Players contending more than once * Keegan Bradley

Players contending more than twice** Tiger Woods


Top 25 World Rankings Current Form Review

(Last 5 events played)

PlayerEvent 1Event 2Event 3Event 4Event 5Scoring Average
1. Dustin Johnson 1st MC3rd 1st T868.55
2. Justin Rose T2T9T10T61ST 68.5
3. Justin Thomas MCT8T56T25T870.72
4. Brooks Koepka MCT39T191st T3070.11
5. John Rahm MCT4T5MCT570.43
6. Francesco Molinari 1ST T21ST T252ND 67.75
7. Rory McIlroy T2 T28T12MCT870
8. Jordan Spieth T9T42MCMCT3270.43
9. Rickie FowlerT28T612TH T20T869.5
10. Jason Day T17T12MCT44T570.11
11. Tommy Fleetwood T6T12 MCT592nd 70.77
12. Patrick Reed T9T28T23MC4th 69.88
13. Alex Noren T171st T25T23T369.85
14. Bubba Watson MCMCT131st MC69.78
15. Paul Casey T7T51T2T16T2070.05
16. Hideki Matsuyama MCMCT16T13T1670.25
17. Henrik Stenson T35T6T26T13T2370.2
18. Xander SchauffeleT2T21MCT6MC70.12
19. Marc Leishman 60TH T13MCT45T6271.38*
20. Webb Simpson T12T47MCT10MC70.75
21. Phil Mickelson T24MCT65T48T1270.61
22. Sergio Garcia MCMCT8T12MC71.71*
23. Bryson Dechambeau T7T51T2T16T2070.15
24. Tyrell Hatton T51T9T16T6MC70.22
25. Kevin Kisner MCT255TH MCT7471.13*
& Tiger Woods T6T4MCT23T1169.66

Note – Tiger Woods is rising fast in the world rankings, therefore I will add him into the form review.

Poor Form*- Players Averaging over 71 – 3 Players I consider to be in poor current form are Marc Leishman, Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner, despite finishing 2nd at the British Open.

Good Form** – Players averaging under 69 – 3 players in good form are Francesco Molinari, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose


Top 25 World Rankings Performance at the Event

(Over the last 5 years)

Player20172016201520142013Scoring Average
1. Dustin Johnson T171st T53DNP T3370.06
2. Justin Rose T63T46T3T4T1770.05
3. Justin Thomas T28T33DNPDNPDNP70.5
4. Brooks Koepka T17WDT6DNPDNP69
5. John Rahm T28DNPDNPDNPDNP69.75
6. Francesco Molinari T24DNPT61T31T4470.81
7. Rory McIlroy T5DNPDNS1stT2768.33**
8. Jordan Spieth T13T3T1049TH DNP69.63
9. Rickie Fowler 9TH T10T10T8T2169.2
10. Jason Day T24T3T12WDT5370.27
11. Tommy FleetwoodT28DNPDNPDNPDNP69.75
12. Patrick Reed T3652ND T15T4DNP70.25
13. Alex Noren T28DNPDNSDNPDNP69.75
14. Bubba Watson T17T142ND T37T2769.55
15. Paul Casey T5T16T17DNPT2769.75
16. Hideki Matsuyama 1ST T42T37T12T2169.55
17. Henrik Stenson T17DNPT6T19T268.75**
18. Xander SchauffeleT13DNP DNPDNPDNP69
19. Marc Leishman T4155TH T333RD DNP70.81*
20. Webb Simpson DNPDNPT25T31T1469.75
21. Phil Mickelson T39T27T63T15T2170.25
22. Sergio Garcia T39DNPT372ND T4069.81
23. Bryson DechambeauT60DNPDNPDNPDNP71.75*
24. Tyrell Hatton T36DNPDNPDNPDNP70.25
25. Kevin Kisner T28T16T37DNPDNP70.33
& Tiger Woods DNPDNPDNPWD1ST 66.25**

Good History at Event **   Tiger Woods has only played this event once in the last 5 years, although prior to that it is an event he has dominated. 2013-1st, 2012 – 4th, 2009 1st, 2007 1st, 2006 1st, 2005-1st, 2004-2nd, 2003-4th,2002-4th,2001-1st & 2000-1st.

You would have to be crazy to exclude Tiger Woods from any betting this week, based on his love affair with Firestone CC. Henrik Stenson and Rory McIlroy are the only other players to average under 69 at this course, but are a distant second to Tiger Woods.

Poor History at Event *   Bryson Dechambeau has only played once at this event and didn’t perform well, and Marc Leishman outside of that has the highest stroke average at Firestone of the current top 25 players in the world.


Adjusted Stroke Averages for the Top 25 World Ranked Players

Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

Note – I have added Tiger Woods into the form review, as he is one of the fastest rising world ranked players, AND GUESS WHO APPEARS ON TOP!

PlayerMy rankings for the tournament
1.       Tiger Woods 68.44
2.       Dustin Johnson 69.09
3.       Justin Rose 69.21
4.       Rory McIlroy69.3
5.       Henrik Stenson 69.43
6.       Rickie Fowler 69.46
7.       Francesco Molinari69.48
8.       Brooks Koepka69.66
9.       Paul Casey 69.77
10.    Alex Noren 69.8
11.    Bubba Watson 69.88
12.    Tommy Fleetwood69.88
13.    Xander Schauffele69.9
14.    Jordan Spieth 69.97
15.    Webb Simpson 69.98
16.    Jason Day 69.99
17.    Patrick Reed 70.04
18.    John Rahm70.1
19.    Hideki Matsuyama70.15
20.    Justin Thomas 70.21
21.    Phil Mickelson70.25
22.    Marc Leishman 70.31
23.    Tyrrell Hatton 70.36
24.    Bryson DeChambeau70.59
25.    Kevin Kisner 70.76
26.    Sergio Garcia 70.84

Betting Notes – The market seems to have caught onto Tiger Woods, but is still an ok “over” for mine! My top 4 rankings match Betfair’s top 4 rankings and are very close in order. However there are some discrepancies as I move further down the list. I have Henrik Stenson ranked 5th ($23) and the market has Henrik ranked 13th ($42) & I have Paul Casey ranked 9th ($30) and the market has Paul ranked 20th ($55).  Vice Versa, I have Jordan Spieth ranked 14th ($50) and the market has Jordan ranked 5th ($23) & I have Justin Thomas ranked 20th ($48) and the market has Justin ranked 10th ($26).


In Play Trading Opportunities

Hole 2 – Plays as the easiest Par 5 at Firestone, averaging 4.59 strokes. I will be looking for players that are well positioned off the tee, to be placing a “back” bet and then placing a “lay” bet after the hole is completed.

Hole 4 & 9 – Play tough, averaging 4.23 each. Ill be looking for players to drop a shot on these holes or miss the fairway. Both these holes are difficult fairways to hit and if the fairway is missed on the No.9 it becomes even harder to hit the green, due to the 12 foot false front. I will be looking at some potential “lay” opportunities on these holes at the tee box and will be looking to “re-back” these players after the hole is completed.


Betting Strategy

As mentioned previously, I generally don’t like to place any bets pre-tournament, but after my rankings got the trifecta in the U.S Open, you may want to “back” some over’s or “lay” some under the odds off my rankings.

It was also great to see my biggest “over” Francesco Molinari win the British Open. It’s a little harder this week as the market seems to have the top 4 players correct, however I might be able to still find a little bit of value.

 BACK – Justin Rose has had 5 straight Top 10’s, $2.5 “back” for Top 10 is overs! – 3 units

 BACK – Tiger Woods loves this track and is in form, “back” $2.44 for Top 10 – 2 units

 LAY- Justin Thomas Top 10 @ $3.4 – 1 units

 BACK – Henrik Stenson “back” for Top 10 @ $4.2 – 2 units

 BACK – Paul Casey “back” for top Top 10 @ $4.8 – 2 units


Related Articles

Introduction to Golf Betting

Those of us lucky enough to play golf will understand the wild swings in form our mediocre talent affords ...

Intelligent Golf Betting: The Majors

There are four majors each year in golf, along with one flagship event on each of the two main ...

Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

Betfair’s Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s ...