Your Golf Betting Tips and Previews

The Lakes Golf Club, Sydney, Australia, 15-18^th Nov

The Lakes is a unique Australian golf course. It is one of very few where natural water hazards are a part of the play, and at the opening hole and the three back nine par fives water is the dominant hazard. It is both thrilling to negotiate and a nagging concern. It was more than a concern when in his own 1998 Greg Norman Classic the great man splashed three long irons into the lake fronting the 14th green on his way to a twelve.

The course is split by the airport to city freeway and seven of the front nine holes play on the ‘other side’ of the road. The rolling dunes so characteristic of this part of Sydney make for some interesting golf and great power is of little advantage unless its use is well considered.

The seaside winds are an almost constant presence and whilst the fairways are of width and the players are afforded much space to drive into, it is left to the golfer to work out where best to play. It is the making of those choices that makes golf such a fascinating game to play and this is one of Australia’s most interesting courses.

Weather Report

Thursday – Cloudy, 21 Degrees, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 76%, Wind 34km/h

Friday – Partly Cloudy, 20 Degrees, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 68%, Wind 26km/h

Past Winners and Runners Up

Current Form Review

Poor Form*- Adam Bland is in horrible form at present, along Andrew Dodt. Marcus Fraser has also been out of form as well.

Good Form** – Brett Coletta, Cameron Percy, Cameron Davis, Abraham Ancer and Keegan Bradley all have low stroke averages at present. Please keep in mind that some of these players play on tours whereby scoring is a little lower than normal. One of the difficult things about getting an accurate form guide for an event like an Australian Open, is there are many players from many different tours playing.

History at Event – Last 3 Years

Note – Most of these players haven’t played the past 3 years, so its difficult to get an accurate form guide of how they perform at the event.

Good History at Event** – Cameron Smith has a very solid stroke average the Australian Open

Poor History at Event* – Matt Millar, Brett Coletta, Dimi Papadatos and Zach Murray have struggled to play well in recent years.

My Rankings

Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

Note – Nick Cullen was just outside the 25 Betfair Market rankings, however he did lead the European Tour Challenge Tour Stroke Average Rankings this year with a very impressive 69.15 average.

 “The Overs” – I have defending champion Cameron Davis favorite at $9. Abraham Ancer at $13, and Cameron Percy and Brett Coletta at $15 and $17 respectively. Keeping in mind that Brett Coletta is hard to get an accurate form guide on and Cameron Percy has been playing in some low scoring events recently.

 “The Under’s” – Brandt Snedeker in under the odds in my opinion. He hasn’t been in good form and hasn’t played this course before. I also have Brendan Steele as under the odds.

Compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find outright betting “overs” and “under’s”, and also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.

In Play Trading Opportunites

This tournament could be high scoring due to predicted winds. Could be a good option to “back” a player after the morning round day 1, and then “lay” them before they commence there afternoon Day 2 round, as they could easily shorten in the market.

I will be playing the Par 5’s this week as I usually always do. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed, particularly if they have an iron into the green and the green is not heavily surrounded by trouble.

Note – 75% of leaders that lead by a shot entering the final round don’t win, and they average worse than the PGA Tour average. This can be a great strategy for 2 ball match betting and laying the leader in play, but only if they are below $3. Two weeks ago Li Haotong was $2 entering the final round and lost, he struggled with his game most of the day. This I notice is a common trait with leaders entering the final day, put simply “nerves”! Sergio Garcia did the same last week entering the last round at $1.80.

Difficult driving holes and players with poor driving accuracy percentages. If they find themselves in contention, lay tee-shots and re-back after the ball comes to rest.

High winds are expected this week, it could be a good opportunity to look at difficult holes playing into the wind, and easy holes playing downwind for good trading opportunities in-play.

Betting Strategy

I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool. Below are some bet options to choose from.

Wait until Wednesday night until the liquidity comes into the pools to place your bets!

 BACK – Cameron Percy Top 20 @ $3.50 2 Units

 LAY – Brandt Snedeker Top 5 @ $3.50 2 Units

 BACK – Back Cameron Davis Top 20 @ $1.90 1 Unit

Eastlake GC, Atlanta, Georgia, September 20-23^th

We have arrived! The Fed Ex Cup concludes here at Eastlake GC with the Tour Championship. Eastlake is designed on two narrow strips of land characterized by sandy soil, wetlands and flat sections mixed with undulations.

Moderate at 5812 meters, Eastlake hides some of its distance in elevation changes and some of the dog legs will make players think about taking driver or not. The course is always presented in pristine condition, and it sure will make for an exciting week as Xander Schauffele tries to defend his title.

Weather Report

Thursday – 31 degrees, mostly sunny, precipitation 0%, humidity 55%, Wind 13km/h

Friday – 31 degrees, mostly sunny, precipitation 10%, humidity 60%, 11km/h

Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Current Form Review

Please note Last 5 event on the PGA Tour.

Poor Form*- Players Averaging over par –    Patton Kizzire comes into the Tour Championship in poor form, closely followed by Paul Casey and defending champion Xander Schauffele.

Good Form** – Believe it or not, and despite his withdrawal at the Dell Technologies Championship recently, Billy Horschel has the lowest stroke average in the past 5 events played. Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka are the next best and playing very well at present. Then there is then a group of players, which include Justin Rose, who has had three 2^nd’s in his past 5 starts.

History at the event the past 3 years

Note – Because of the small field size & strict exemption criteria, many players do not have a lot of form at the event, so it’s difficult to assess.

Good History at Event – Hard to go past Justin Rose, Justin Thomas and Paul Casey who haven’t missed a top 10 between them in recent years at Eastlake. I do think Paul Casey may struggle this year based on his recent form lately. Tony Finau has only played once in the past 3 years and finished 7^th.

Poor History at Event – Patrick Reed and Kevin Na have struggled at the Tour Championship in the small man field, and the usually consistent Rickie Fowler is yet to fire at Eastlake the past few years.

My Rankings for the 2018 Tour Championship

“The Overs” – This week has thrown up a few surprises! My form has Billy Horschel playing very well, having the lowest stroke average to par the previous 5 events. He is also 148 under par from 84 rounds this year, which is very strong. Tony Finau ranks 2^nd in my rankings, clearly one of the hottest players in the world at present. These two players along with Keegan Bradley, Webb Simpson, Gary Woodland, and Kyle Stanley are big “overs” this week.

 “The Under’s” – I have Rory McIIroy and Tiger Woods as “unders”, they are both playing well enough to contend, however I can not be on them at their current price. Even though their recent form is reasonably strong, neither of them have cracked 100 under par for the year. Xander Schauffele, Patrick Reed and Paul Casey have all been out of form. Ill be looking at some tournament match bet opportunities on these players.

Not only can you compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find outright betting “overs” and “unders”, but you can also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.

In Play Trading Opportunities

Assess the scores after Day 1 and if the tournament is low scoring then apply my trading strategies mentioned in previous articles. “Laying” morning player with a good scoring and “Re-Backing” before commencing round 2.

I will be playing the Par 5’s this week as I usually always do. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed, particularly if they have an iron into the green and the green is not heavily surrounded by trouble.

Note – 75% of leaders that lead by a shot entering the final round don’t win, and they average worse than the PGA Tour average. Therefore it can be great for 2 ball match betting and laying the leader in play, but only if they are below $3.

Difficult driving holes and players with poor driving accuracy percentages. If they find them selves in contention, lay tee-shots and re-back after the ball comes to rest.

Pre Tournament Bets

I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool.

Below are some bet options to choose from, although keep in mind that some of the match bets are difficult this week.

 BACK – Tony Finau to beat Hideki Matsuyama for 2 units

 BACK – Bryson DeChambeau to beat Rickie Fowler for 1 units

 BACK – Justin Rose to beat Rory McIlroy for 1 unit

 BACK – Billy Horschel Top 10 at $3.30 for 1 unit

 BACK –  Tony Finau to finish Top 10 at $3.30 for 1 unit

 BACK – Gary Woodland to finish Top 10 at $5 for 1 unit

 BACK – Kyle Stanley to finish Top 10 at $5 for 1 unit

 LAY- Paul Casey to finish Top 10 at $3.40 for 1 unit

Le Golf National, Paris, France, 28^th-30^th September 2018

With all four majors and the Fed Ex Cup done, all focus now switches to the Ryder Cup. The 42^nd Ryder Cup will be held at La Golf National, in Guyancourt, France, which is a suburb southwest of Paris and will no doubt be in outstanding condition for France’s first hosting of the Ryder Cup.

With thick rough and plenty of water the par 72 layout measuring 6703m will be a true test, especially if the wind shows its teeth. Team USA leads the overall Ryder Cup 25-13. There have been only 2 ties in Ryder Cup history.

Weather Report

Friday – 23 degrees, sunny, precipitation 0%, humidity 59%, Wind 23km/h

Saturday – 18 degrees, sunny, precipitation 0%, humidity 52%, 21km/h

Ryder Cup Stats

Since 1979 the Ryder Cup as we know it – Team Europe against Team USA – was formed to make the contest a closer contested event than it had been in previous years.
As a result, the Ryder Cup has become one of the world’s greatest sporting events. Every two years, 24 of the finest players from Europe and the United States go face-to-face in match play format.

Theatre, improbable acts of greatness, team cohesion and sportsmanship under the highest possible pressure are on show during three of the most fascinating days in sport, capturing millions of viewers around the globe. Of the 40 matches participated in cup history, USA overwhelmingly lead Europe by 25 wins to 13. However, with Team Europe only forming in 1979, this is a misleading statistic and one many disregard when assessing the modern day Ryder Cup.

Since the introduction of European players, of the previous 18 editions Europe have been the superior team, winning a total of 10 Ryder Cup events, losing seven and drawing one. Notably, Team Europe have been dominant on home soil, winning six and drawing once from nine matches, whereas USA have only won five from the nine editions to date.

Furthermore, the Europeans have been strong away from home also, winning four from nine in what are regarded as intimidating and hostile conditions, while the Americans have only managed two wins and one draw on European soil. Overall, Europe have produced their best golf more often than not, but with Team USA more likely to win at home, the chances of them preventing four European wins in a row is greater.

Ryder Cup Players Current Form Review

Team USA Total Stroke Average: – 1.78     

Team Europe Total Stroke Average: -1.43

Team USA come into the Ryder Cup with their players in better current form than Team Europe. The real test however will be Team USA dealing with playing on European soil and the European crowd. Team Europe are very strong on home soil, winning six and have only lost once since 1979.

Individual Rankings for the 2018 Ryder Cup

Betting Note – When players are paired together for the teams matches, I suggest reviewing which pairing have the stronger rankings.

It is a tall order for Justin Rose to carry Team Europe to victory in the Ryder Cup. Team USA are very strong in the top order this year. The only advantage Team Europe have, is that it is on home soil and Europe have proven to be strong at home, however this year I believe Team USA will overcome this and win the Ryder Cup.

Pre Tournament Bets

Great to see Tiger win last week and we had a nice big collect. Lets see if we can do it again!

 BACK – Team USA to win the Ryder Cup for 3 units

 BACK – Team USA Day 1 Fourballs Winner for 1 unit

 BACK – Team USA Day 1 Foursomes Winner for 1 unit

Firestone CC, South Course, Akron, Ohio, Aug 2-5, 2018

Firestone, South Course was originally designed by Bert Way, but redesigned by Robert Trent Jones Sr in 1960. Firestone is best known for its legendary history of tournament play, and length. The par 70 layout measures 7283 yards, and will definitely be a stern test for the shorter length players. There are only two par 5’s at Firestone, the 2^nd hole and the 16^th hole, however the 16^th hole is a beast, measuring 667 yards, and with a pond just short of the green, it captures its far share of errant shots. The tough holes, I will be looking closely at this week, are the 18^th hole, measuring 464 yards and surrounded by bunkers with a long narrow fairway.

The Par 3 15^th hole, measuring 221 yards is a tough hole, and getting the ball close to the hole can pose its share of problems. The other difficult par 3 is on the front nine, the 200 yard 5^th hole, most players will be coming in with a 5 or 6 iron, however when the wind blows this course easily become a 4 or 3 iron. It’s a tough Par 3 to play, right before reaching arguably the toughest hole at Firestone, the 6^th hole. The 6^th hole has ranked the toughest hole and second toughest at Firestone over the years, it will be one of my main focal holes for betting this week.

Weather Report

Thursday – Humidity 65%, Wind WSW 7-10mph, Temperature a high of 83F. Will be partly to mostly cloudy with a stray shower or possible thunderstorm.

Friday – Humidity 75%, Wind SSW 6-10mph, Temperature 74F. Partly cloudy skies all day.

Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Players contending more than once * Keegan Bradley

Players contending more than twice** Tiger Woods

Top 25 World Rankings Current Form Review

(Last 5 events played)

Note – Tiger Woods is rising fast in the world rankings, therefore I will add him into the form review.

Poor Form*- Players Averaging over 71 – 3 Players I consider to be in poor current form are Marc Leishman, Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner, despite finishing 2^nd at the British Open.

Good Form** – Players averaging under 69 – 3 players in good form are Francesco Molinari, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose

Top 25 World Rankings Performance at the Event

(Over the last 5 years)

Good History at Event **   Tiger Woods has only played this event once in the last 5 years, although prior to that it is an event he has dominated. 2013-1^st, 2012 – 4^th, 2009 1^st, 2007 1^st, 2006 1^st, 2005-1^st, 2004-2^nd, 2003-4^th,2002-4^th,2001-1^st & 2000-1^st.

You would have to be crazy to exclude Tiger Woods from any betting this week, based on his love affair with Firestone CC. Henrik Stenson and Rory McIlroy are the only other players to average under 69 at this course, but are a distant second to Tiger Woods.

Poor History at Event *   Bryson Dechambeau has only played once at this event and didn’t perform well, and Marc Leishman outside of that has the highest stroke average at Firestone of the current top 25 players in the world.

Adjusted Stroke Averages for the Top 25 World Ranked Players

Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

Note – I have added Tiger Woods into the form review, as he is one of the fastest rising world ranked players, AND GUESS WHO APPEARS ON TOP!

Betting Notes – The market seems to have caught onto Tiger Woods, but is still an ok “over” for mine! My top 4 rankings match Betfair’s top 4 rankings and are very close in order. However there are some discrepancies as I move further down the list. I have Henrik Stenson ranked 5^th ($23) and the market has Henrik ranked 13^th ($42) & I have Paul Casey ranked 9^th ($30) and the market has Paul ranked 20^th ($55).  Vice Versa, I have Jordan Spieth ranked 14^th ($50) and the market has Jordan ranked 5^th ($23) & I have Justin Thomas ranked 20^th ($48) and the market has Justin ranked 10^th ($26).

In Play Trading Opportunities

Hole 2 – Plays as the easiest Par 5 at Firestone, averaging 4.59 strokes. I will be looking for players that are well positioned off the tee, to be placing a “back” bet and then placing a “lay” bet after the hole is completed.

Hole 4 & 9 – Play tough, averaging 4.23 each. Ill be looking for players to drop a shot on these holes or miss the fairway. Both these holes are difficult fairways to hit and if the fairway is missed on the No.9 it becomes even harder to hit the green, due to the 12 foot false front. I will be looking at some potential “lay” opportunities on these holes at the tee box and will be looking to “re-back” these players after the hole is completed.

Betting Strategy

As mentioned previously, I generally don’t like to place any bets pre-tournament, but after my rankings got the trifecta in the U.S Open, you may want to “back” some over’s or “lay” some under the odds off my rankings.

It was also great to see my biggest “over” Francesco Molinari win the British Open. It’s a little harder this week as the market seems to have the top 4 players correct, however I might be able to still find a little bit of value.

 BACK – Justin Rose has had 5 straight Top 10’s, $2.5 “back” for Top 10 is overs! – 3 units

 BACK – Tiger Woods loves this track and is in form, “back” $2.44 for Top 10 – 2 units

 LAY- Justin Thomas Top 10 @ $3.4 – 1 units

 BACK – Henrik Stenson “back” for Top 10 @ $4.2 – 2 units

 BACK – Paul Casey “back” for top Top 10 @ $4.8 – 2 units