Your Golf Betting Tips and Previews

TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee, July 25-28

East-southeast of central Memphis, the 18 hole championship golf course was designed by Ron Prichard, in consultation with tour pros Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller. TPC Southwind opened thirty-one years ago in 1988 and is a member of the Tournament Players Club network operated by the PGA Tour.

TPC Southwind has been the venue for the tour’s annual Fed Ex St Jude Classic, formerly the Memphis Open, since 1989. The event was previously played at Colonial Country Club in Cordova. TPC Southwind was renovated following the 2004 event.

Weather Report

Thursday – Sunny, 30 Degrees, Precipitation 10%, Wind – 11mk/h, Humidity 57%

Friday – Mostly Sunny, 31 Degrees, Precipitation 10%, Wind – 11km/h, Humidity 60%

Saturday – Mostly Sunny, 31 Degrees, Precipitation 20%, Wind – 11km/h, Humidity 68%

Sunday – Isolated Thunderstorms, 31 Degrees, Precipitation 30%, Wind – 13km/h, Humidity 73%

Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Rated Prices

This week’s players that are too short in the market are Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele.

This week’s players that are good value are Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama and Patrick Cantlay.

In-Play Trading Opportunities

• The 231-yard Par 3 14th hole consistently ranks as one of the toughest Par 3’s on the PGA Tour. It requires a long iron tee shot to a narrow green protected by water. Could be a good hole to place a lay bet on the tee and a back bet after the hole is completed.
• The 18th is a 461-yard par 4 that is protected by water along the entire left side of the fairway.

Pre-Tournament Bets

Wait until Thursday night until liquidity comes into the Betfair Exchange before placing any bets.

 BACK – Patrick Cantlay to finish Top 20 for 2 units

 BACK – Hideki Matsuyama to finish Top 20 for 1 unit

 BACK – Webb Simpson to finish Top 20 for 1 unit

LAY – John Rahm to finish Top 10 for 1 unit

LAY – Justin Thomas to finish Top 10 for 1 unit

Austin Country Club, Austin, TX, March 27-31

Austin Country Club is a private golf club in the Southern United States, located in Austin, Texas. Established 120 years ago in 1899, the club moved to its third and present site in 1984, a challenging layout designed by noted course architect Pete Dye. The Par 72 layout measures 7108 yards is west of central Austin and will be a good test for all players, with windy conditions expected.

Weather Report

Thursday – Cloudy, 26 Degrees, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 54%, Wind 23km/h

Friday – Isolated Thunderstorms, 28 Degrees, Precipitation 30%, Humidity 54%, Wind 23km/h

Saturday – Scattered Showers, 22 Degrees, Precipitation 40%, Humidity 47%, Wind 19 km/h

Sunday – Mostly Cloudy, 17 Degrees, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 45%, Wind 18 km/h

25 Players in the field in Betfair Market order and form review

Betting Notes

Jordan Spieth continues his horrible form, I’m to continually oppose him until he can show a turnaround in form. The market is reasonably accurate for the top 10 players, the overs are Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose within the top 10. Outside of that the market continually seems to be missing Charles Howell, he is in solid form.

Jim Furyk shoots up my ratings with his strong finish at The Players Championship. I am happy to oppose Louis Oosthuizen, Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed, but be a little weary of Patrick Reed, he does thrive on matchplay.

Pre Tournament Bets

 BACK – Tony Finau in his Round 1 Match for 1 unit

 BACK – Xander Schauffele in his Round 1 match for 2 units

 BACK – Justin Rose at $8 to make the Semi Finals for 1 unit

 BACK – Tommy Fleetwood at $8 to make the Semi Finals for 1 unit

 BACK – Xander Schauffele at $13 to make the Semi Finals for 1 unit

 BACK – Charles Howell at $18 to make the Semi Finals for 1 unit

 BACK – Charles Howell in every match in group format for 2 units

LAY  – Jordan Spieth in every match in group format for 3 units

TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, March 14-17

Regarded as the 5^th Major, The Players Championship, is hosted at the same venue every year. The key to playing the Pete Dye Stadium course well is avoiding the water hazards like the 16^th,17^th & 18th. This is a course that requires finesse not power, it’s a complete test, you must hit the ball very well. But there’s probably never been a “Players” champ who hasn’t holed a lot of lengthy putts

Weather Report

Thursday – 24 Degrees, Partly Cloudy, Precipitation 10%, Humidity 67%, Wind 21km/h

Friday – 26 Degrees, Scattered Thunderstorms, Precipitation 40%, Humidity 71%, Wind 16km/h

Saturday – 17 Degrees, Cloudy, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 64%, Wind 19km/h

Sunday – 19 Degrees, Cloudy, Precipitation 10%, Humidity 70%, Wind 23km/h

Top 25 Players in the Field

My Rated Prices

Note – I think Justin Thomas should be favorite for the tournament this week, he has good current form and has had a solid last 12 months and has had good previous form at the course in recent years. Charles Howell is a big over this week, he has been in good form and is a player to keep an eye on, along with Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar. Rory Mcllroy is in form, the only query is his form at the venue the past 3 years. Jordan Spieth is completely out of form and happy to oppose!

In Play Trading Opportunities

• This week’s beauty – Lay on the 17^th tee and re-back after the 18^th

Since 2003, the 462 yard 18^th hole has been the most difficult at THE PLAYERS Championship, averaging 4.33 strokes. It’s the toughest green to hit (44%), and has the second most water balls, with the highest double bogey average.

The 17^th hole has incurred 598 water balls since 2003, the high came in 2007 with 93. And with a stroke average of 3.11, I suggest not placing any “back” bets in-play on 17 or 18. Instead I believe that there is value in placing a “lay” bet on players on the 17^th tee and “re-backing” after they complete the 18^th hole.

The 2^nd hole is a Par 5 and there is an in-play profitable strategy I suggest using. It’s the second toughest fairway to hit at 52%, however for those players going for the green in two, they average 4.50 verses the players laying up averaging 5.08. Therefore if you see a player on the fairway with a club in hand that indicates they are going for the green in two, simply place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once they have completed the hole.

Note – Any in-play “backing” and “laying” strategies should only be applied if there is ample liquidity in the market and the back & lay markets are compressed.

Betting Strategy

I generally don’t like to back a leader after day 3 that is only leading by a shot, history shows on the PGA Tour that 75% of players leading by a shot entering the final round don’t win. They average worse than the yearly tour scoring average. This is great for two ball match betting, tournament betting etc. Something to keep an eye on!

I generally lay the first player to get to odds on favorite, providing they have more than 6-9 holes to play, preferably more than 9 to play. Less than 50% go onto win.

Assess the odds of players in the clubhouse, compared to those on the course. As a general rule, players on the course are favored over those in the clubhouse. In the U.S Masters this year, Rory Mcllroy and Jordan Spieth finished their second rounds early and drifted more than 20% once the whole field had completed their second round.

 BACK – Charles Howell to finish Top 10 at $7.40 for 2 unit

LAY  – Jordan Spieth to finish Top 10 at $7.00 for 1 unit

LAY  – Sergio Garcia to finish Top 10 at $5.00 for 1 unit

 BACK – Xander Schauffele to finish Top 10 at $3.80 for 1 unit

 BACK – Matt Kuchar to finish Top 10 at $5.70 for 2 units

 BACK – Webb Simpson to finish Top 10 at $5.30 for 2 units