EXPERT GOLF TIPS: THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP
THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP TIPS AND PREVIEW
The Open Championship is the oldest and arguably most grand of the four major championships. A tournament first contested back in 1860, it was first contested down the road from this year’s venue Royal Troon at Prestwick. It was won by Willie Park Sr and in the 151 stagings since, all the greats of the game have lifted the Claret Jug, from the Morris father-son tandem in the fledgling years of the tournament through Vardon and Ray, Hagen and Jones, Snead and Hogan, Player and Palmer, Nicklaus and Watson, Seve and The Shark and, of course, Tiger Woods. Scottie Scheffler starts the short-priced favourite for the time this year in majors with Rory McIlroy next in betting as he seeks to overcome his collapse at Pinehurst. There is a strong LIV contingent and they will look to make it two straight majors.
COURSE OVERVIEW
Royal Troon hosts its 10th Open Championship this week, the fifth oldest venue in the rota and one that has been used at least once a decade since the 1960s. Winners include Bobby Locke, Arnold Palmer, Tom Weiskopf and Tom Watson with Henrik Stenson famously out-duelling Phil Mickelson in 2016, the most recent Open held here. Troon famously starts off relatively easy with six holes typically playing downwind with plenty of space before turning inland on the seventh and becoming difficult.
The eight hole is its most famous, the Par 3 hole called “Postage Stamp” that will play under 100 yards on at least one day. There are blind tee shots on 10 and 11 and long Par 4s defining the back nine. Small greens are difficult to hit so there is a need to be able to scramble well. The course is littered with pot bunkers and heavy gorse so playing from the fairway is essential. Avoiding trouble, as in most Opens, is key here. Distance from the tee is not critical but if it is accurate it can prove a huge advantage.
Key Statistics
- Total Driving
- Wind Form
- Round 1 Scoring
- Scrambling
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
- Putting Average
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Bogey Avoidance
- Sand Saves
Key Correlation Tournaments
- Alfred Dunhill Links
- Scottish Open
- 2019 Irish Open
BETTING STRATEGY
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Open Championship 2024 – Winner) Xander Schauffele (Rated at $15)
This is my best back for the tournament. Xander broke through for his first major win in the PGA Championship and he can absolutely go on with it now. He has finished Top 15 in his four starts since and he has always thrived in this tournament with a worst finish of T-41 in six starts including a T-2 in 2018. Scrambling is probably the most important characteristic and he ranks 1st on the PGA Tour while he is 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, 10th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 11th in Total Driving.
BACK (Open Championship 2024 – Winner Tyrell Hatton (at $19 or Better)
This is my next best bet. Hatton has really elevated his game in 2024 since moving to LIV. He recorded his first win on the tour in Nashville in late-June and he has finished Top 26 in two of the three majors this season. His stats have been elite, particularly on and around the greens, while he has a super Open Championship record with three Top 20 finishes in his last four.
BACK (Open Championship 2024- Winner) Cameron Smith (at $34 or Better)
This is my value play. Putting is going to have an increased significance this week and that puts Aussie Cam Smith right in the mix. He leads LIV in Putting Average and Strokes Gained: Putting, as well notably Strokes Gained: Around The Green. He won the Open two years back and he has finished Top 10 in seven of his last 17 majors. Excellent bet.
LAY (Open Championship 2024- Winner) Rory McIlroy (at $19 or Shorter)
This is my best Lay. Rory has finished Top 6 in five of the seven Opens he has contested since winning in 2014 but it is hard to see him overcoming the mental demons that have plagued him over the decade. McIlroy has been far from his best putting or scrambling this year and they are crucial components this week. Far too short to consider after his Pinehurst disaster.
BACK-TO-LAY (Open Championship 2024-Winner) Collin Morikawa (at $15 or Better)
Morikawa stunned the golf world when he won the Open Championship in 2021 on debut. His form has not been as strong as it should have been over the last two years but he has been much improved this year. Ranks 2nd in Round 1 Scoring but does not have a win in 2024 so looks a great back-to-lay opportunity.
BACK (Open Championship 2024- Best South African) Louis Oosthuizen (at $1.90 or Better)
There are seven South Africans in the field and Louis Oosthuizen, a former Open Champion, is a standout. Oosthuizen has had his quote halved this week. He has finished Top 23 in three of his last four Opens and his game could not be better suited to Troon.
