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GOLF MODEL TIPS: US OPEN

US OPEN 2024

Last Week’s Event

With Scottie’s run-in with the law behind him we returned to regular programming last week as he put on a tee-to-green clinic and did just enough with the flat stick to keep Morikawa at bay. He presents an ongoing challenge for the model, which despite having him well ahead of the chasers, includes too much randomness in its simulations to justify the insanely low prices being offered by the market.

This Week’s Event

The Major-like conditions of last week were the perfect segue into the final Stateside Major of the year. Pinehurst No.2 course will be the scene, with the Donald Ross design playing a massive 7,500 yards plus over a par of 70. This track has played host three times previously and only three players have finished below par – a fair chunk of this is a result of the low par but this track is a proper test.

From the tee box players will face quite generous fairways, with a nice amount of bounce and roll to assist with churning through the 7,500 yards. While relatively easy to hit, stray drives will end up in native areas where lies will be an absolute crap shoot. Greens are heavily sloped, placing a premium on pin proximity and making landing them at all a tough proposition.

The length means long iron performance will likely be the separator here, as it was in last year’s edition when Matt Fitzpatrick was lights out from 200+ from the pin. The winner will need to be laser accurate on approach or very smart with their misses, as certain spots around the pins will be near impossible to get up and down from.

COURSE HISTORY AND FIT

A handful of veterans have had eight trips around these parts however only Kaymer’s ridiculous 2014 performance and Rickie Fowler’s solid runner up in the same year are registering as having any impact on the ratings – they’ll both take small overlays in.

Over on the course fit adjustments there’s not an awful lot going on either as the course plays largely in line with Tour average in the skillsets it prefers. There’s a small downweighting on accuracy which is helping out some of the more wayward players and a little bump to distance which sees Bryson taking in a positive overlay of around 0.1 strokes per round. Rory is a tiny bit behind him and it’s not worth noting anyone else.

On the negative end Aaron Rair and Brendon Todd, famed for their accuracy, take similarly sized negative hits.

BETTING STRATEGIES

Big volume as would be expected but the flows on Scheffler have been astronomical – he’s accounted for almost a third of the whole market! I guess it’s not entirely surprising given it’s almost becoming like backing Tiger in the early 2000s when no one could get near him. As mentioned earlier, unfortunately the model isn’t keen on backing the big fella as it has him priced closer to 5s.

Xander has been backed in heavily to low 10s and looks like about the only guy in the field with a shot at taking it to Scheffler. He’ll be brimming with confidence after his maiden Major win a month ago and is a deserved second favourite. Rory and Morikawa in at third and fourth agrees completely with the model however there’s no value at all in the Irishman’s price.

It’ll be second and fourth in line where my money goes this week, with a sprinkling of high value long shots just to keep things interesting from a trading perspective. As usual, I’d be hedging out some if not all exposure on these long shots in the event they make the cut.

Xander Schauffele

Betting Strategy

BACK: Xander (WIN) for 0.8 units at $12.50+.

Not the massive value offered at the PGA but there’s still around a 20% overlay on the world’s clear second best player. I don’t need to talk about his form, all you need to know is the model likes the price.

Others the Model likes are Colin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An, Corey Conners, Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge and Harris English

Collin Morikawa

Betting Strategy

BACK: Morikawa (WIN) for 0.2 units at $19+.

Almost ran down Scheffler last week in what was the perfect tune up for this event. When he gets going, there’s few in the world who can touch his long iron game so we know he’s got what it takes to succeed here.

Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An, Corey Conners

Some great value on these second tier names. Conners in particular has been playing excellent golf and just needs to sort himself out on the putting green.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Im (WIN) for 0.1 unit at $100+.

BACK: An (WIN) for 0.1 unit at $95+

BACK: Conners (WIN) for 0.1 unit at $120+ 

Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Harris English

If those prices weren’t long enough here’s another three blokes who on their day can absolutely mix it with the best – all offering great value at current prices.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Horschel (WIN) for 0.05 units at $210+

BACK: Hoge (WIN) for 0.05 units at $290+.

BACK: English (WIN) for 0.05 units at $300+.

GOLF MODEL TIPS: US OPEN

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