The Analysts provide their expert NRL Tips for each round of the 2019 season. There’s in-depth analysis, betting strategy and reasoning behind each of their selections.
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Friday 24th May 7:55pm
The Sydney Roosters have absolutely dominated Newcastle in recent times but the Knights are in a total smash spot here against the premiers. Home underdogs off four straight wins have covered eight of nine while home underdogs of 6 or more off scoring 30-plus points are 25-12 ATS dating back to 2008. Conversely, road favourites of six or more off a loss are 11-23 ATS over the last five seasons. The Knights have to be taken here getting more than a converted try.
BACK – Newcastle +6.5
Saturday 25th May 3:00pm
Canberra have covered six of seven against North Queensland and profile well against a Cowboys team that have struggled for points this year. The Cowboys have been exceptionally poor on the road over the last two seasons, covering just five of their last 17 road games. Canberra bounce back well off a poor attacking performance with a 17-6 cover record off scoring 16 or fewer while they are 23-14 ATS at home off conceding 16 or fewer.
BACK – Canberra -6.5
Sunday 26th May 2:00pm
Canterbury have played Melbourne better than any other team over the course of the Craig Bellamy era and can cover as big home underdogs here. The Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 12 against the Storm but the real angle comes as a big home underdog off a win with home underdogs of more than a converted try off a win going 55-27 against the line while those getting double digits are 11-4 against the spread. The Storm have covered just six of 18 away from AAMI Park.
BACK – Canterbury +10
Saturday 18th May 5:30pm
Parramatta are without question the play of the round. Teams off humiliating defeats are usually in a good bounce-back spot with teams who conceded 60 6-1 against the spread since 2012 while those off losses of 40-plus are 29-14 ATS.
Small interstate underdogs of under a try also cover at a clip of 65%. The Eels are 13-6 ATS off a loss of 13-plus while the Cowboys have covered just five of 14 off a double-digit loss and four of 12 as a favourite. The Eels look primed to win and win big.
BACK – Parramatta +2.5
Saturday 18th May 7:35pm
Canberra have been the best bet as an underdog over the last five years with 29 covers in their last 42 when an outsider. When a home underdog they have covered six of nine over that span. Souths have been poor road favourites with just three covers in nine when the elect away from ANZ.
The Rabbitohs also don’t back up strong attacking performances with just two covers from seven after scoring 28 or more points. The Raiders have won five from seven and can continue their good run v Souths.
BACK – Canberra +2.5
Sunday 19th May 4:05pm
Manly have historically dominated Cronulla with 15 wins in their last 17 meetings including 13 covers. The Sea Eagles are good as notable outsiders with a 25-17 against the spread record when getting more than a try, covering 13 of 18 in the spot away from Brookvale Oval.
They have covered 10 of 13 getting 4.5 or more after a poor attacking performance when scoring 12 or fewer. Cronulla have covered just 11 of 32 at Shark Park off a win and 16 of 41 as a favourite at Shark Park.
BACK – Manly +4.5
Friday 10th May 6:00pm
The Tigers are absolutely the best bet of the inaugural NRL Magic Weekend. The Panthers are absolutely shot and if they went on to win the wooden spoon it would not surprise. They are playing awfully.
They are overrated by the market, shown by their 1-7 cover record. They have been absolutely hammered by injury. The Tigers have covered 12 of 19 as an underdog and 7 of 10 off conceding 40-plus. Small underdogs off conceding 40-plus have covered 11 of their last 15. The Tigers will jump much shorter than as small outsiders here.
BACK – West Tigers +1.5
Friday 10th May. 8:05pm
Brisbane are a bet against team until they can find some semblance of form. The Broncos have now lost Andrew McCullough to a knee injury a week after shipping off Kodi Nikorima. Brisbane are a disaster. Manly have had their share of injures but have been playing tough committed defence.
The Sea Eagles have covered 11 of 17 against the Broncos and 15 of 20 as an underdog off a win. Brisbane have covered just 3 of 12 when favoured by more than a try. Happy to bet the team that is trying and getting points.
BACK – Manly +4
Sunday 12th May. 2:00pm
Canberra look to be undervalued in this spot against the high-flying Roosters. There is no doubt that the Roosters are operating in a different stratosphere this year with seven straight covers but regression always takes hold on defending premiers and this seems like a good spot for it to hit. Canberra have covered 19 of 29 as an underdog including 8 of 11 as an underdog of 6.5 or more.
The Raiders are 19-13 against the spread off a double digit win as an underdog. The Roosters have covered just 5 of 16 as a day favourite of more than a converted try and have lost three straight to Canberra. The Raiders have some injuries but look capable of getting an unsuspecting Roosters team.
BACK – Canberra +7.5
Thursday 2nd May. 7:50pm
This matchup is the one all the Rugby League world has been waiting for. Wayne Bennett and Anthony Seibold take on their former teams and the hatred between the two should not be underestimated.
Bennett is definitely playing it cooler and Souths are playing much better Rugby League but the Broncos are well over the odds here. Brisbane have covered 15 of their last 21 getting a start of 4 or more points and 21 of their last 33 as an underdog overall. Souths have covered just 2 of 8 as a favourite at ANZ.
BACK – Broncos +5.5
Friday 3rd May. 7:35pm
It won’t be a pretty watch but Cronulla have to be bet here getting a start that looks too big at home. The Sharks have been hit hard by injury with Shaun Johnson the latest to go down but home underdogs of 4 or more in the first eight rounds of the year 88-40 against the spread since 2008.
The Sharks are 8-2 against the line in the spot while teams playing Melbourne in the spot are 14-7 against the spread. The Sharks have covered 7 of 11 as a home underdog. The Storm have covered just 5 of 14 as an interstate favourite.
BACK – Cronulla +7.5
Saturday 4th May. 7:35pm
The Wests Tigers get a monster start against the high-flying Sydney Roosters and absolutely look a bet. The Tigers have covered 15 of their last 22 after getting a start of more than a converted try and are 8-3 against the line when getting a start of more than two converted tries.
The embarrassment of the Eels loss two weeks back will have them switched on and they have played the Roosters tight in the last three meetings with two closes losses and a shock win. The Roosters have covered just six of 15 when favoured by 12 or more. The start is just too large here.
BACK – Tigers +12.5
Thursday 25th Apr. 7:50pm
This is a battle of two teams at two ends of the spectrum and the Warriors could not have got the Storm in a worse spot. Melbourne – surprise, surprise – sit atop the table with a 5-1 record but enter this traditional Anzac Day clash. The Storm are near unstoppable at home off a loss with a 12-4 cover record in their last 16 at AAMI Park following a defeat.
They have also covered 10 of 14 at home off a poor defensive performance where they conceded 20-plus. The Storm have covered six of nine as a double-digit favourite at the ground. With six straight wins over the Warriors including a 40-point win in this clash last year, Melbourne look primed for a big win.
BACK – Melbourne -13.5
Friday 26th Apr. 6:00pm
Canterbury are absolute poison as favourites so need to be taken on in this one. The Bulldogs have covered just 14 of their last 42 as a favourite and just 5 of 19 as a favourite off conceding 14 or fewer. Favourites off poor attacking showings in recent years have fared poorly too, going 24-37 against the spread off conceding six or fewer.
Canterbury have covered just 1 of their last 8 as a favourite at ANZ. The Cowboys have covered 5 of their last 7 interstate and small interstate underdogs cover at 63% over the last five seasons.
BACK – North Queensland +1.5
Sunday 28th Apr. 2:00pm
Canberra are outstanding value here against a Manly team that is tough but severely lacking in talent. The Raiders have been the best defensive team in the premiership this year and have traveled well in recent seasons, going 32-19 against the spread on the road since 2015. The Raiders are particularly strong on the road off a strong attacking showing, going 16-6 against the line off scoring 24 or more points. Manly have covered just 1 of 5 at Brookvale when starting at $2 or shorter and 3 of 10 at the ground off scoring 14 or fewer.
BACK – Canberra
Sat 20th Apr. 7:35pm
Manly are in a good spot here. The Dragons are in a play-against spot with home favourites of 6.5 or more points off scoring 36 or more a poor 16-30 against the line over the last five seasons. The Dragons have covered just 9 of 24 when favoured by more than a converted try. Manly have covered nine of 13 away from Brookvale and 19 of 30 getting a start of 4.5 or more away from Brookvale.
BACK – Manly +
Sun 21st Apr. 2:00pm
Newcastle at a relatively short-price on the road has been absolute poison. They are winless without a single cover in their last six road games when $2.25 or shorter and have just a single win and cover from eight at $2.50. With a 39% win rate on the road and the most inept attack in the NRL, they are in a clear bet against spot. Newcastle have covered nine of 12 home games and 12 of 19 at home off a win. The Titans are the best of the round.
BACK – Gold Coast
Mon 22nd Apr. 4:00pm
The Eels are false favourites in this one. Parramatta have been overpriced here because of the excitement kicking off at a new home ground is sure to generate. The Eels have covered just three of 12 as a favourite though. The Tigers have been excellent as an underdog, covering 14 of 19, including 11 of 13 as an underdog off a win. The Tigers have scored at least 16 points in 13 of 14 against the Eels and with their defence in such a good spot, they are a very strong play.
BACK – West Tigers +
Thurs 11th Apr. 7:50pm
The Broncos are a club in disarray at present. They have won just one of their opening four games. Their captain has been accused of not trying. Their star centre was pictured passed out after a big night out. Their forward enforcer has been suspended for a dog shot. Brisbane have covered just two of their last 10 at Suncorp when favoured by more than a converted try. The Tigers have been strong bets as big outsiders, covering 14 of 18 when getting a start of 4.5 or more. They have covered seven of 10 getting a start of 6.5 or more off conceding 16 or fewer.
BACK – West Tigers +6.5
Fri 12th Apr. 6:00pm
Gold Coast are well over the odds as a big home underdog. Home underdogs of 4 or more points in the first eight rounds of the season are 85-39 against the spread since 2008, making them a blind bet. They have also covered 16 of 25 as a home underdog and nine of 13 as a home underdog off conceding 24-plus. Penrith have covered just 4 of 11 as a favourite away from Panthers Stadium and just 9 of 23 interstate. The Titans are in a desperate situation now and they will see this as a big opportunity to break their duck.
BACK – Gold Coast +4
Sat 13th Apr. 7:35pm
Cronulla have won six of nine against the Sydney Roosters and are the play as big home underdogs here. Home underdogs of 4 or more points in the first eight rounds of the season are 85-39 against the spread since 2008. The Sharks have covered 26 of 41 as an underdog since 2015, including 7 of 10 as a home underdog. They are 12-5 against the line as an underdog off a loss, showing they are a big bounce-back team. The Roosters have covered just 7 of 21 off a win of 13-plus and just 3 of 10 after conceding six points or fewer.
BACK – Cronulla +6.5
Sat 6th Apr. 3:00pm
Home underdogs of 4 or more in the first four rounds of the season are 45-18 against the spread since 2008 so the Sea Eagles are a blind bet in this spot at Brookvale against the Bunnies. Those 4-plus early season home underdogs are 15-5 against the spread off a win while those off a win of 7 or more are a +102% POT off the stick. Home underdogs off a win of 20-plus are 18-10 ATS over the last five seasons. Souths have covered just 11 of 26 when favoured away from ANZ.
BACK – Manly +6.5
Sat 6th Apr. 5:30pm
Canberra won both matches against North Queensland last year and should be able to extend that run to three against a Cowboys team that has looked hapless over the last two weeks. The Raiders are 30-19 ATS interstate over the last five seasons and are 22-11 ATS interstate when an underdog. Small interstate underdogs cover at 63% across the board since 2015. The Cowboys have covered just 6 of 16 at home.
BACK – Canberra +1.5
Sat 6th Apr. 7:35pm
Cronulla have won five straight against Parramatta and are primed to make it six straight. Four of those wins have been by more than a converted try. The loss of Dylan Brown is a huge blow to Parramatta while Paul Gallen is a surprise inclusion for the Sharks in what will be a massive boost. The Sharks have covered 7 of 11 as a favourite away from Shark Park.
BACK – Cronulla -1.5
Fri 29th March. 7:55pm
Parramatta getting the big start here shape as the bet of the round. There are some big angles here. Home underdogs of 4 or more in the first four rounds of the season are 45-15 against the spread while those getting 8 or more in the first eight weeks of the year are 14-2 against the line. The Eels have won both games this year and have covered 10 of 15 as an underdog at ANZ. The Roosters have covered just three of 12 when favoured by 8 or more points and five of 15 on the road off scoring 25 or more points.
BACK – Paramatta +8.5
Sat 30th March. 3:00pm
Manly have long dominated New Zealand with 20 wins in the last 25 meetings and with Tom Trbojevic looking like a potential return, the Eagles are the play here. Manly have covered 18 of 30 away from Brookvale getting a start of 4 or more but this is very much a play against the Warriors. They have won just 6 of 17 at New Zealand grounds outside of Mt Smart and have covered just 10 of 28 when favoured by 4 or more points. Plenty of value siding with Manly here.
BACK – Manly +4.5
Sun 31st March. 4:05pm
The Wests Tigers and Canterbury have started the season in very different manners. That makes for a great contrarian play here. The Tigers jump as favourite of more than a converted try for just the 12th time in five seasons. They have covered just four of the previous 11. They have covered just 10 of 29 as a favourite and just five of 16 at Campbelltown. The Bulldogs have covered 18 of 28 getting a start of 6.5 or more and have won 10 of 14 against the Tigers. Canterbury are under the gun and are in desperate need of an improved showing.
BACK – Cantebury +6.5
Thu 21st March. 7:50pm
Home underdogs of 4 or more in the first four rounds of the season cover at an exceptional 76% so the Saints can be bet blind here. The Dragons are in a good spot too despite losing Tyson Frizell to injury. They return to Kogarah, where they are 15-7 against the spread over the last five years including a 6-2 against the spread number as an underdog at the ground.
The Dragons have also covered 8 of 11 off a loss when playing at the ground. The Rabbitohs have covered just 3 of their last 9 away from ANZ and 5 of 13 after scoring 24 or more points. The five-day turnaround is an overrated stat by the market: home underdogs on a five-day turnaround cover at 61% since 2008.
BACK – St George Illawarra +4.5
Fri 22nd March. 6:00pm
Many of the same stats used to push the Saints this week are applicable for the Raiders. Home underdogs of 4 or more in the first four rounds of the season cover at an exceptional 76%. Home underdogs on a five-day turnaround cover at 61% since 2008. Home underdogs of 4 or more off a win also cover at 61% while the Raiders are 9-2 against the line in the spot.
Canberra have covered 6 of 8 as a home underdog over the last four years while they have conceded 10 of their last 16 after conceding 16 or fewer points. The Storm have covered just 3 of their last 12 as a favourite 2 of 9 on the road off a win of 10 points or more. The surprise inclusion of Jordan Rapana adds to the confidence.
BACK – Canberra +4.5
Sun 24th March. 6:10pm
The Tigers are always a lay when favoured so definitely keen to take them on here. They have covered just 9 of 28 as a favourite and just 2 of 10 when favoured off a win. The Tigers have also covered just 4 of their last 15 at Campbelltown and just 4 of their last 15 day games. Small interstate underdogs are severely underrated by the market, covering at 66% over the last five seasons.
The Warriors have covered 6 of their last 8 as an underdog away from Mt Smart.
BACK – New Zealand +1.5
Friday 15th March. 6:00pm
Newcastle finished off last season winning just four of their last 16 games and have now shifted their best player to five-eighth and their five-eighth to fullback. They had a very good record in close games and their win total shot-up significantly, two red flags for significant improvement.
Newcastle are a take on team in 2019 for sure. Cronulla have long dominated the Knights with eight straight wins and there is no reason to expect the Sharks to drop off. They have won four straight in Newcastle and averaged 41.5 points in those matches. The Sharks have won 20 of 31 away from Shark Park when $1.90 or longer in betting. The Knights have won just 4 of 17 night/twilight home games.
BACK – Cronulla
New Zealand have opened surprisingly big favourites against Canterbury. The market has shifted notably towards the Bulldogs and will continue to move that way with key rake Issac Luke ruled out for the home team. The Bulldogs have named what can only be called a sub-optimal team with Rhyse Martin and Nick Meaney not selected for reasons only coach Dean Pay. Regardless, they are in an excellent spot. The Bulldogs have won 15 of 21 against the Warriors and 9 of 11 getting a start of 4-plus points. The key stat to note in this one though: the Warriors have covered just 6 of 21 when favoured by a try or more.
BACK – Canterbury +4.5
One key stat that can be bet on the blind in the NRL: small interstate underdogs. Interstate outsiders of 3.5 points or fewer have covered at 66% over the last five years. The logic is fairly sound with the small interstate underdog typically the better team and home advantage overvalued by the market.
The Dragons are in that spot this week. The Dragons have won three straight against the Cowboys and have a much more settled preparation than the Cowboys, who have question marks across their backline.
BACK – St George Illawarra
Prognosticators started forecasting the end of the Melbourne Storm era a decade ago. They still have not found the year when the Storm have fallen off the cliff. Melbourne have won at least 14 games since 2006, played in eight of the last 13 Grand Finals and have reached the preliminary final stage in seven of the last nine years. Their downside is a Top 4 finish and a preliminary final exit so to see them topping the $8 mark in premiership betting required an eye rub and a double take.
The Storm still have Craig Bellamy and Cameron Smith and they are surrounded by a plethora of talent including star half Cameron Munster, a dominant pack and a wing tandem that is as dangerous as any in the premiership. Burned by not showing up in last year’s Grand Final, the Storm will be uber-focused no going one better this year. The three times they have lost a Grand Final, they have bounced back to win the premiership the next year.
The Sharks have been written off by the market yet it is clear from their roster construction that they are all-in for one last tilt at the title. Cronulla have won at least 14 games and played finals football for four straight seasons, winning a premiership in 2016 and finishing a game shy last year. They are a team that is coming off a high base and whose roster has improved markedly with the addition of former Golden Boot winner Shaun Johnson.
The loss of Valentine Holmes hurts but Johnson is an upgrade primarily because of the position he plays and the role he will have. There is a query over how John Morris will perform as a rookie coach but with a veteran side and the injection of a player with best-player-in-the-premiership upside, the Sharks are big overs.
BACK – Melbourne Storm
BACK – Cronulla Sharks
No team possesses more talent in the NRL than the Sydney Roosters, who have remarkably improved their squad from the team that won the premiership by bringing in Angus Crichton to the pack and adding internationals Brett Morris and Ryan Hall to an already teeming three-quarter line. The Roosters have already won the minor premiership four times in Trent Robinson’s six seasons in charge and he has not had a team with this much talent.
Defending a title is difficult but defending a minor premiership is not with seven teams repeating since 2005. The club not only has the most talent but it added the premiership know-how of Cooper Cronk last year and that sprinkling of Storm culture on such a stunning roster should not be undervalued.
BACK – Sydney Roosters to be the minor premiers
Key analytics suggests no team has bigger improvement in them in 2019 than the Canberra Raiders. Ricky Stuart’s team have come off back-to-back 10th-placed finishes but in each of the last two seasons their real win total had them firmly inside the Top 8. It has been primarily an inability to close out close games that has hurt the Raiders. Canberra were an awful 3-8 in games decided by a single score last year, a record put down to both poor coaching and poor halves.
While the coaching hasn’t changed this year, Jack Wighton shifts to five-eighth to give the Raiders a more reliable halves pairing while Josh Hodgson is in line to play a full season after missing the majority of 2018. Canberra have recruited well, bringing in world class backrower John Bateman from Wigan, along with Ryan Sutton from Super League. Canberra are coming off a base as a legitimate Top 8 team and have more than enough scope if things click early to post a Top 4 finish.
BACK – Canberra Raiders to finish in the Top 4
The Titans have already been heavily bet to make the Top 8 this year and it is easy to make a case that they will improve significantly. An unfashionable and typically underwhelming team who rarely attract much interest, the club may finally be headed in the right direction with some astute recruitment.
Tyrone Peachey heads the list of inclusions this year that also features Australian prop Shannon Boyd, halves Ryley Jacks and Tyrone Roberts and speedy centre Brian Kelly. More importantly though, coach Garth Brennan has cut ties with plenty of poor players including Kane Elgey and Konrad Hurrell while the halves shopping spree will put much-needed pressure on terribly overrated No.7 Ashley Taylor.
The Titans have a premier pack led by Ryan James with rep players Boyd, Jai Arrow, Kevin Proctor, Nathan Peats and Jarrod Wallace and they now have some backline talent. Gold Coast severely undershot their real win rate last year so are not starting off as low a base as many seem to think and with their improvement roster-wise, it is all systems go in 2019.
BACK – Gold Coast Titans to finish in the Top 8
The price available on Parramatta to claim their fourth wooden spoon of the last decade is absurdly high. The Eels have very little going their way coming off their fifth bottom-four finish of the last nine years and with the worst roster in the premiership, they are major overs.
Parramatta’s roster is a mess, highlighted by the barrow being tied to error-prone halfback Mitchell Moses. They have major issues at hooker, a lack of speed out wide and an undersized middle. They did not have the advanced metrics expected of a wooden spoon team that would indicate improvement and they have recruited exceptionally poorly for a team not in the title hunt, investing in big-money players in non-spine positions rather than focusing on player development and cost saving.
The Eels should be in a transition year. Instead they have deluded themselves into believing they can win now. It is a situation that will likely lead to a coaching change and a mid-season clean out, a perfect storm for a team that will be well in contention for last spot.
BACK – Parramatta to win the Wooden Spoon
Kalyn Ponga is the clear-cut favourite heading into the 2019 season after coming oh-so-close in his first full season after a scintillating first year in Newcastle. Roosters custodian James Tedesco and Dragon Gareth Widdop sit on the next lines of betting. There is plenty of value to be found in Dally M Medal betting with three players really standing out. Cooper Cronk is the main string-puller for premiership favourites the Sydney Roosters.
Cronk is a two-time winner (both in the last six years) and seven of the last 11 winners have come from a team that made the Grand Final. Shaun Johnson looks set for a big year after moving from the Warriors to the Sharks. He is a former Golden Boot winner and behind a strong pack for arguably the first time in his career, a season of rejuvenation is on the cards. The top value selection though is Josh Hodgson at around the $41 quote.
Hodgson has a top-six Dally M Medal finish to his name and is a clear standout as Canberra’s most important player. With the Raiders expected to be sharp improvers this year and Hodgson a renowned vote-getter, he is well worth betting with plenty of opportunities to trade for a profit throughout the season.
BACK – Cooper Cronk to win the Dally M
BACK – Shaun Johnson to win the Dally M
BACK – Josh Hodgson to win the Dally M
The Blues go in heavily favoured for this year’s series after a dominant 2018 series where they won the opening two games before going down in the dead-rubber third game. Though the Blues only outscored the Maroons 52-44, they will go into the 2019 series with a significant advantage at fullback, in the halves and in the pack.
Brad Fittler brought about significant cultural and stylistic changes last season and it reaped plenty of rewards. Teams that have wrapped up the series in two games the year prior have won five of six series the following year.
BACK – NSW
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