SEASON PREVIEW- 2026
The compelling 2026 NRL season is wide open at the top of the ladder and is similarly full of chances at the bottom end of the ladder with six legitimate wooden spoon chances.
There has been a regularity with wooden spooners of late. In the 14 years since 2012, three teams have claimed 10 wooden spoons: Newcastle (4), Parramatta (3) and Wests Tigers (3). Teams have won back-to-back wooden spoons on six occasions. Bad teams tend to be stuck in the mire for quite a while.
This suggests Newcastle will find it incredibly difficult to get themselves off the bottom. The Knights are a club that organisationally is limited and have found themselves mired at the bottom of the ladder more often than not over the last decade. They get a boost from hiring a talented coach in Justin Holbrook but given the state of the roster, it will take time. The Knights have some talented backs but their investment in Dylan Brown is misguided and the attack will require a lot of work. The pack though is diabolical and with no depth this team looks the perfect wooden spoon candidate.
Gold Coast have the worst roster in the NRL and are another team in reset mode but they are under the odds to win the fewest games. For all their ineptitude they have just two spoons and one in the last 14 seasons. They finished on the same number of wins as the Knights last year but were significantly better, falling 2.6 wins shy of their true win number while going 1-5 in one-score game. They lost the third most games to injury last year. They will be bad but are likely a better proposition than the Knights this year and with an easy finish to the season they should find plenty of wins post-Origin.
Wests Tigers ended their run of three straight wooden spoons following some astute recruitment and what appeared to be some much-needed front office stability. That ended though with a boardroom coup that saw CEO Shane Richardson leave. Young talent Lachlan Galvin also walked. Benji Marshall has shown nothing as a coach and with one of the worst draws in the NRL, the Tigers look one of the better bets to run last.
St George Illawarra won no admirers with their poor loss in the Charity Shield when at full strength against a team of kids and NSW Cup players. Shane Flanagan’s best trait as a coach though is getting his teams to bounce back after a poor showing and that will likely keep the Dragons away from last spot.
Both Manly and North Queensland likely have too much talent to run last but they profile as teams that can collapse quickly with both in line to fire their coaches this year. The Sea Eagles have never won the wooden spoon in their proud 79-year history and have the second easiest draw but they have a bottom four roster, a desperate coaching staff battling to save their jobs and look one Tom Trbojevic injury away from complete collapse. The Cowboys have no depth to their roster and after a cushy start to the season have a brutal final two-thirds. They are worth a speck after Round 8 if they win some games early.
Least Wins Recommended Bets/Trading Strategies
Back: Newcastle Least Wins @ $4.00 or Larger
Back: Wests Tigers Least Wins @ $5.50 or Larger
Back: Manly Least Wins @ $15.00 or Larger
Lay: Gold Coast Least Wins @ $7.00 or Smaller
Lay Later: Gold Coast Least Wins Post-Origin @ $5.00 or Smaller
Back Later: North Queensland Least Wins Post-Round 8 @ $21 or Larger
National Rugby League – NRL Tips and Predictions
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