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EXPERT TIPS: NRL ROUND 4

Sydney Roosters vs Penrith Panthers

Betting Strategy

BACK: SYDNEY ROOSTERS at $1.50 or better

There has been a huge betting move in this one with the news that Nathan Cleary will miss a month. Scott Sorenson and James Fisher-Harris are also out. The Roosters have lost Lindsay Collins but get Luke Keary back. This is a great spot for the Roosters with teams off winning by 40-plus 25-9 against the spread the last four seasons.

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Betting Strategy

BACK CANTERBURY +6.5 @ $1.70 or longer

Souths look absolutely cooked and there does not seem to be any saviour coming. The Rabbitohs have a talent advantage over Canterbury but it isn’t huge and Cam Murrah is carrying an injury. Souths have covered just one of their last eight off conceding 28-plus and have covered just one of their last six when favoured by more than a converted try. Take on Souths.

LAY SOUTH SYDNEY @ $1.60 or shorter

Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys

Betting Strategy

BACK BRISBANE at $1.85 or better

The oldest Queensland derby looks like a ripper with a Brisbane side missing Haas and Walsh up against the only undefeated team remaining. The Cowboys have been playing some good football but they have trailed by 14-plus in each of their last two – against the Knights and the Dragons. Brisbane have covered 12 of their last 15 at Suncorp off a double digit loss and look value here.

St.George Illawarra vs Manly Sea Eagles

Betting Strategy

BACK ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA +8.5 at $1.70 or better

The Dragons butchered a big home start and an 18-4 lead last week to the Cowboys when finishing on the wrong side of a 46-24 scoreline. They are an awful side and the lack of team changes are concerning – Jack Bird needs to go! – but they have to be a bet getting 8.5 at home. Home underdogs of eight or more off conceding 46 or more cover at 77% and the Dragons have covered six of seven at Wollongong against Manly.

Gold Coast Titans vs The Dolphins

Betting Strategy

BACK GOLD COAST +2.5 at $1.80 or better

Hard game to break down but the Titans off two embarrassing losses are likely the bet. The concern is their injury toll though Jayden Campbell and David Fifita return. Teams off a loss of 30-plus in the opening four rounds cover at 61%. The Dolphins have failed to win all four times off a win of 13-plus.

New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights

Betting Strategy

BACK OVER 41.5 at $1.75 or better

There looks to be plenty of points in this one with the Warriors, in particular, in a good over spot. The over is 15-8 when the Warriors are off a win and 8-3 when they are off conceding 12 or fewer. The over is 12-9 when Newcastle are off a win. On a low total, betting the over is the way to hit this.

Cronulla Sharks vs Canberra Raiders

Betting Strategy

BACK CRONULLA -5.5 at $1.70 or better

The Sharks laying the points are the best of the week. The Raiders have won nine of the last 10 against Cronulla but back on home turf, the Sharks are a tremendous bet. Cronulla have covered 10 of 15 at Shark Park when favoured by four or more and they have covered six of eight off a loss of 20-plus. This is a big bounceback spot. The Raiders have covered just 13 of 31 road games. The Sharks are a high confidence play.

Parramatta Eels vs West Tigers

Betting Strategy

BACK WESTS TIGERS +6.5 at $1.75 or better

The Tigers showed a lot of gumption last week when thrashing the Sharks. It was not only the large margin – it was both the effort shown by the players and the game plan put in place by new coach Benji Marshall. The Tigers are in a nice spot here too with six covers in eight games at CommBank while they have covered 14 of 24 getting 6.5 or more when playing in NSW.

NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+ 

This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.

BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+

This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson’s Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team’s ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.

LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter

Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.

BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+

Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.

BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+

Best value top 4 market. Cronulla’s draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.

LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter

Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season’s finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.

BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+

Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year’s Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.

BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+

Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.

LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter

Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.

National Rugby League – NRL Tips and Predictions

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