TAS Racing Expert Preview

Matt Reid is a horse racing expert who delivers an insight into all Tas Racing meets where he previews the entire card each week and gives you his betting strategy for every race.

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11 January

The third meeting in the space of five days will be run in Devonport on Monday, an additional meeting added to the calendar after the cancelled Tasmanian Guineas program in Hobart.

There certainly isn’t the top-end quality we’ve seen at the past two feature programs with the highest grade of race a pair of benchmark 66’s but the opening race should be exciting with a new crop of two-year-olds mostly facing the starter for the first time.

Reports from Wednesday’s Cup meeting were that the inside was inferior going and the majority of those 10 winners came down the middle of the track so it will be worth monitoring any pattern on Monday.

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Very moderate maiden. Rosehaven (6) arguably should’ve won at Longford and gets her chance to go one better. Baker draws to go forward or sit just off them. Boss Cheyenne (4) is perhaps the likely leader and she finished just behind Little Hot Missile at Longford who won on Friday.

Always A Winner (3) is the debutante who has had two recent trials. Lacerate runs in the first to provide a guide on his 22 December performance. Scots Wha Hae (2) has only had one start for Gary White so has scope to improve and has the blinkers back on.

Betting Strategy

It will be a challenge to find a weaker maiden than this for the rest of the season. I Black Booked Rosehaven from Longford and this is obviously a very winnable race for her. Scots Wha Hae hasn’t shown a great deal but has some scope to improve and I thought he was over the odds in a race which could easily throw up an upset.

BACK (WIN) – 2 units to win on Rosehaven

BACK (WIN) – 1 unit to win on Scots Wha Hae

Run Dance Fly (7) has now had five runs for Glenn Stevenson, finishing no worse than fifth. She worked home nicely for fourth last time to suggest the extra distance will suit. Society Bill (3) was third in that race which did produce Gee Gee Rhythm who won on Friday.

Sparkling One (9) trialled well at Longford and appears ready to go first-up. She races on the speed and should be there a long way. Sirocco Shamal (8) was scratched last week. She’s a 5YO mare having just her second start and was good on debut but has a tricky draw. Gee Gee Silentnite (5) comes through two strong maidens and wasn’t asked for a lot at the trials earlier in the week.

Betting Strategy

A race with a short favourite but one where the market still gives five runners legitimate winning chances. Gee Gee Silentnite ran in a couple of very strong 2YO maidens last campaign and I like the booking of McCoull.

I thought Run Dance Fly was over the odds around $10 as well, she’s more exposed than other key chances but has been consistently around the mark in races like this.

BACK (WIN) – 2 units to win on Gee Gee Silentnite

BACK (WIN) – 1 unit to win on Run Dance Fly

Gee Gees Punter (3) was a big run last time we saw him, never better than three-wide but still finished in the photo. He’s racing consistently this campaign. Stinka (2) doesn’t know how to run a bad race and has placed three from four first-up.

French Heiress (5) has found a nice patch of form, but I suspect 1350m is as short as she wants it. Jack’s Choice (8) is up to this at her best and Pompeia (4) won here two starts ago before things didn’t go to plan at Longford.

Betting Strategy

Gee Gees Punter is another FORMPLUS Black Book runner who went in after his most recent start. I’ve actually marked him favourite in this field so I have a bit of a stance against the early markets offered.

BACK (WIN) – 3 units to win on Gee Gees Punter

Gee Gees Darl (3) finally broke through for an overdue win last start. She will be hoping that runners are able to sweep down the middle of the track as they were often able to do on Cup day. Same can be said for Gold Current (4) who should be better at 1150m, having chased home Kohima (2) earlier in the week. The winner was brave, fighting on after covering ground early.

Little River Boy (1) didn’t settle and subsequently didn’t see out 1400m and he is generally a better horse around this distance. If we see the same horse than won back-to-back races in Hobart a couple of months ago, he will give this a shake.

Betting Strategy

There is good speed in this race which I thought could set the race up for something running on from off the pace. Up to 1150m suits Gold Current with that pattern and I thought he was well over the odds finishing in the quinella four times from five starts at the T&D.

BACK (EW) – 3 units each-way on Gold Current (4)

Banca Nip (1) was strong through the line at a mile to defeat Gregorian Chant with Kaimu (4) third and Gee Gee Caughtya (6) fourth there. The extra distance appears a positive for all three as it does for Rodessa (11) who will probably need to round them up from the back.

Spihro (5) bounced back to form on Wednesday and should’ve finished closer after being blocked for a run close to home. This is a drop in class for GeeGee Blackprince (2) who found the Longford Cup a bit hot and GeeGees First Lady (9) was there that day as well and can improve off that performance.

Betting Strategy

Rodessa always needs a bit of luck getting into the race with her pattern of racing back in the field, but if she gets it, she will take some holding out.

BACK (EW) – 2 units each-way on Rodessa

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