Matt Reid is a horse racing expert who delivers an insight into all Tas Racing meets where he previews the entire card each week and gives you his betting strategy for every race.
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A busy period in Tasmanian thoroughbred racing continues in Launceston on Wednesday night with an eight-race card to be run under lights.
The rail moves out 3 metres from the true position on Saturday and while there was heavy rain on Sunday, I’d expect the track to race in the 4 or 5 range by Wednesday night. Field sizes continue to be capped at 10 to aid with social distancing requirements.
Tas Racing also has previews for all Harness and Greyhound Meetings while they are still running.
Best Bets
Race 3 – 3. Louise
Race 6 – 1. Balearic
R1 Jansz Maiden, 1200m
Main Chances
1. Catch Me Paddy – Over a month between runs. Drawn well for Newitt and only needs to have held form to be in the finish again.
9. Banca Star – Scratched from Saturday when a $4 chance. Trialled well and assuming no issues this doesn’t look any harder than last week.
4. Louisville – In the market on debut and battled away after racing near the speed. Won his recent trial sitting three-wide.
2. We Need A Star – First-up. Held together in trial last week. Placed five of eight in his career and two of three at the distance.
10. Our Shinkansen – Debutante who has had two trials winning the most recent. $15k Adelaide purchase.
Staking Strategy
Open race where I think half the field can win without surprising. I was keen on Banca Star last Wednesday before the meeting was moved and I’ll follow up on her again.
BACK (WIN) – 1 unit to win on Banca Star
R2 Tasmanian Hospitality Association Maiden, 1400m
Main Chances
2. Comiskey Park – Scratched from mile race on Saturday. May get favours racing on-speed and has the right rider for that role.
7. Supalopo – Enjoyed inside runs on debut but showed some ability. The winner there was solid on Sunday.
6. Red Roger – Blinkers off. Wide draw makes it tough but his form is good enough and has raced like 1400m will suit.
11. Costero – Emergency gains a start with the scratching of a stablemate. $13 into $7.50 prior to the postponed meeting last Wednesday.
Staking Strategy
Comiskey Park is the other horse I was on last week to be scratched from Saturday’s meeting. This looks another race where he can lead and would be a good chance if that happens.
BACK (EW) – 2 units each-way on Comiskey Park
R3 Unique Doors & Windows Benchmark 66 Hcp, 1400m
Main Chances
3. Louise – Racing well, chased home a smart one last time putting a reasonable margin on third. May settle closer in small field.
4. Cabarrus – After a couple of disappointing runs he was better last time when forced to cover ground. Potential leader from the inside.
6. Gone Girl – Worked early and couldn’t finish off in the main form reference for the race. In good form prior to that.
Staking Strategy
In the small field Louise should settle close enough to see her strong finish get over the top late.
BACK (WIN) – 3 units to win on Louise
R4 Relay For Life Mdn/cl1, 2100m
Main Chances
1. Rhode Away – Sent out $1.45 and had everything go wrong from gate 1, now has the same draw. Field has less depth and there’s a fair chance he’ll start a similar price if not shorter.
2. A Tad More – Weakened late after working to lead early at 2100m, albeit went slowly in front. Lead looks his if Newitt wants it.
6. Gee Gee Zipalon – Also comes out of the 2100m race where he settled well back. Always prefer those with a run over the distance.
Staking Strategy
Hard to believe that after running unplaced at $1.45 from the inside draw last time, punters will be asked to take even shorter odds this start about Rhode Away from the same gate but here we are. Tough to argue he doesn’t deserve to be that short, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him lead to take bad luck out of it. A Tad More is the quinella horse and perhaps that will pay somewhere around even money or better.
BACK (WIN) – 1 unit to win on Rhode Away
BACK (WIN) – 1 unit to win on A Tad More
R5 Cressy Chaff Cutters Benchmark 60 Hcp, 1600m
Main Chances
6. Give Us A Winner – Not suited dropping back to 1400m on Sunday. How soft he gets it in front generally determines his chances.
9. Reann’s Diamond – Another that ran on the weekend. Not sure where she gets to from the gate but blinkers back on and any sting out of the track a bonus.
2. Coutinho – Often gives a big start which is his issue. Up in distance from a middle draw may enable him to settle closer.
1. Fagin’s Touch – Haven’t seen his best for a while. Not suited back off a slow pace on Saturday.
8. Mag Wheels – Stable change from John Blacker to Michael Trinder. Ran over 2400m less than a month ago so would be a big effort to win at a mile here.
3. Hunch – Forced scratching from maiden/class 1 on Saturday. Bit of an unknown in a field that have been struggling to win.
Staking Strategy
Thought this was the hardest race of the night. Very surprised to see Mag Wheels at $3 given her setup entering the race. She can win, but I simply have to take her on at that price. Maybe Congomotion can improve, particularly if he lands forward and Reann’s Diamond’s best would go close with any luck from the poor draw.
BACK (WIN) – 1 unit to win on Congomotion
BACK (WIN) – 1 unit to win on Reann’s Diamond
R6 Armidale Stud Benchmark 84 Hcp, 1400m
Main Chances
1. Balearic – Unlucky not to finish closer last time. Proven weight carrier and races best at this distance.
5. Rough Road – 1600m back to 1400m perhaps not ideal but also think this is a better distance for him. Holding his form well despite a long campaign.
3. Shewearsthepants – Meets toppy 2.5kg better for beating him home last start where he was a big effort racing wide.
2. The Master Speed – Suited dropping back to benchmark grade. Will give them something to chase.
Staking Strategy
Balearic has to give weight to the field but he has proven he can carry it and has a good chance to atone for the unlucky third a fortnight ago.
BACK (WIN) – 3 units to win on Balearic
R7 Ladbrokes Class 1, 1100m
Main Chances
3. Holy Diamond – Three straight seconds. Prefer this race at 1200m but may take holding out if Newitt can hold a spot behind the lead.
2. Loki Patera – Had a couple of months off. 1100m ideal. Should lead and would be further suited if there’s any pattern favouring that.
1. Border Protection – Ran an outstanding race fresh but been up and down since then. May find 1100m a bit sharp.
7. Swift Arrival – First Tassie start for Siggy Carr. Doesn’t find an overly deep class 1 to kick off in.
Staking Strategy
I thought the consistent form of Holy Diamond warranted him being a shorter price, and I’m happy to side with him given each-way odds are available.
BACK (EW) -2 units each-way on Holy Diamond
R8 Tas Fumigation & Pest Services Benchmark 66 Hcp, 1200m
Main Chances
3. Silkstone – Tough effort on Saturday. Big chance if he backs-up.
4. Breathtaking – First-up without a trial. All five wins have been with Newitt in the saddle.
1. Nielson – Benefit of doubt says he may have needed the first-up run. This is a reasonable drop in class and anything near his best would win, but now an 8YO.
5. Caesar’s Quest – First-up in almost a year. Best is over further and the market may give a guide with the stable having two in the race.
Staking Strategy
Silkstone does look the winner assuming he handles the quick back-up and I think the quinella horse will be one of the two entering the race first-up.
BACK (WIN) – 2 units to win on Silkstone
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