EXPERT SOCCER TIPS: UEFA EURO 2024

Monday 5.00am

After 50 games and 24 teams fighting it out, it all comes down to this.

You need luck to win tournaments, there is no doubt about it. England have had a lot of luck to reach the final. They got quite lucky with the draw after the group games. They have also been bailed out several times by their substitutes, and certainly by a horrendous VAR decision that went against Netherlands.

England have played well below their level in this tournament, and they finally produced their best performance in the first half of the semi-final, yet a simple tactical change from Netherlands totally nullified that for the second half.

An 80th minute super strike against Switzerland got them to extra time and penalties, they had a 94th minute goal against Slovakia, and then a 90th minute winner against Netherlands. They have never once looked like winning a game, yet managed to get through at the death, which at the end of the day, is what tournament football is all about.

They are a very poorly managed team, with exceptional players. Individual brilliance has got them here, but will they be able to go to the well of luck once again and come up with a bucket of water, or has it run dry?

The best opponent they have faced was probably Switzerland, followed by Netherlands. They avoided Italy, France, Portugal and Germany, and this is a huge step up in class.

As for Spain, in their first four games, they conceded one goal, and even that was an own goal against Georgia. They then put four past them to run out easy winners. They beat Croatia 3-0, Italy 1-0, Albania 1-0, Germany 2-1 and France 2-1. That’s 13 goals scored and three conceded.

They have won six games straight, which has never been done at a Euro Championships. They looked by far the better side every time, and never once looked to be under any sort of pressure.

Then we look at England’s games. A 1-0 win against Serbia, then 1-1 with Denmark, 0-0 Slovenia, 1-1 Slovakia when they were seconds from being eliminated, and then Harry Kane scores in extra time to get them to the next round. Then 1-1 with Switzerland (winning 5-3 on pens), and 2-1 against Netherlands after being handed the worst VAR penalty decision ever seen at a major tournament.

They have been unconvincing every game, there is no flow, no cohesion, and when opportunities appear to push a pass forward, they take the soft route and roll it across the back to the other side and then repeat the process. It’s been dire. In more than one game it was after the 80th minute when the first shot on target was fired.

When the substitutes come on, they have looked a different team. Maybe Southgate needs to make all his changes after 10 minutes to give them a chance.

That all means nothing now though. This is one game, 90 minutes where anything can happen. A piece of individual brilliance, a slip and the back, a wayward pass, just one mistake can cost you a title. Ask Steven Gerrard. The pressure is immense on both sides but for different reasons.

If you basing your opinion on what has happened so far in this tournament alone, nobody expects England to get near Spain. But that pressure can get to even the best players. Spain are expected to win, and anything other than a convincing victory against a very poor England side, would be seen as an epic failure. Their fans are looking at this as their easiest game.

England are not expected to win, but the expectation of the nation, where over 10 million pints of beer are ready to be drunk during the day, is impossible to exaggerate. Not since 1966 have they won anything, and this would be a first ever European Championship. It is their first final outside of England.

On paper, they arguably have better players. Man for man the individual skill level of England is better then Spain. What holds them back is the manager and his tactics. Very defensive and overly cautious. It seems to be, don’t lose and we can take our chance with penalties. He picks players out of position, and has them playing a style that doesn’t suit. Phil Foden is a superstar for Manchester City and Pep Guardiola plays him a certain way. So you expect that if Southgate selects him, he would want him doing exactly what he does week in week out. But oh no, when playing for England, we want you to do something you never do for Manchester City, yet still be just as good.

Trent Alexander-Arnold is a brilliant right back for Liverpool, one of the best in the country. But Kyle Walker plays there, so he puts Trent into midfield.

Kieren Trippier is a superb player, but when played out of position like he has been with Southgate, he is ineffective. He has been a liability the whole tournament.

The whole side is disjointed because he plays three of them out of position and wonders why they can’t gel. But quite rightly, he says what do we all know, we are in the final so what more can we do? They just keep finding a way to get the job done.

It’s a fair point. But he is such a poor manager. Here is one example. Kobbie Mainoo has been England’s best player. But in the first two games, Alexander-Arnold filled his place. Then Conor Gallagher was tried there. Despite what he sees in training, Southgate can’t even see what he has, and just plods along doing things by his blueprint. If England win this thing, it will be despite their manager, not because of him. It would highlight just how good they actually are.

The worst thing for England would be to win it, and have him stay on as manager.

A lot of good judges in England were saying before the tournament, Mainoo should be the first name on the sheet, and build around him. So now he is in, England will go with 3-4-2-1 system with Mainoo and Rice facing off against the mercurial Rodri and Fabián, and what a clash that will be.

One advantage Spain have, is they have had an extra 24 hours too recover and prepare. It’s a huge advantage given what’s at stake. Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand are expected to reclaim their place after suspension, and will only be without Pedri, who suffered a knee injury against Germany.

There is no chance Gareth Southgate will swap captain Harry Kane for Ollie Watkins, and he will go with an unchanged side again. Unless he bites the bullet and brings in Luke Shaw. To not do so would have many scratching their heads as to why he was in the squad. So once again the match will ride on the substitutes, with Cole Palmer, Watkins, Toney, Gallagher, all ready to come on and make history.

One major element, is in the history of football, this is just the third final for England. They won in 1966, made the final in 2021 (Euro 2020), and now here they are for a third time. For Spain, this is just another final, they routinely make finals, they are expected to make finals and won three in a row in 2008, 2010 and 2012. They just see this as their destiny and as the next group of Spain legends to win a final.

For England, a win would change the lives of every player involved forever. Can they finally put the ghosts of 66 behind them and give the country something to cheer about in what has been a torturous 58 years for fans?

The main concern is if they go behind. That will force them to throw everything forward and with the speed Spain have up front, they could well get caught on the break. I see it ending one of two ways.

Spain winning convincingly with a 3-0, or 3-1 scoreline, or England just playing for penalties, and if it goes the maximum distance, England will win the penalty shootout.

Bottom line is this. England needed extra-time to defeat Slovakia, penalties to overcome Switzerland, and an injury-time winner to edge out the Netherlands in the semi-finals. They also have one less day to recover, and play several players outside of their normal club role, and even have a few in different positions to their club position. They did beat Spain when they last met, a 3-2 win in the Nations League in 2018. They will need a sharp lift in performance to compete here.

For the first time in six years, we have a tournament taking place in the Australian winter, without any restrictions on attendances. It is being held in Germany, one of the great football powerhouses, and that means it should be a superb tournament, run with German precision, in world class stadiums, with very knowledgable fans.

The 17th edition of UEFA’s continental championship takes place from June 14th to July 14th, when Italy will defend the title claimed at Wembley three years ago, defeating hosts England. As in the delayed 2020 finals, the top two in each of six groups will proceed to the knockout phase, along with the four best third-placed finishers.

It looks to be quite an open tournament, with England, France and Portugal all having a great chance of raising the trophy. One can never write off the Germans, either, especially in a tournament played on home soil. They have been very disappointing for several years now, but this time, as hosts, with Toni Kroos returning to the side after retiring from international football in 2021, there is no doubt they will be a force. Germany are in their 14th Euro Championships, more than any other nation. They are looking for their fourth title.

Scotland showed in qualifying that they’re not to be underestimated and they will hope to get out of their group for the first time in their history at a major tournament. They won’t go a long way but it would be good to see the Scots for more than three games. Just for once. A highlight of their tournament will be seeing their passionate fans. They don’t get to do this often, so when they do, they go big. The Tartan Army in full cry is a sight to behold.

As for England, will this be Gareth Southgate’s last tournament as manager? If he doesn’t win it this time, he never will. He has all the quality he could ever ask for, and the Betfair market agrees, as they are favourites. Here is a breakdown of those teams with a realistic chance of lifting the trophy.

Group A: Germany, Scotland, Hungary, Switzerland

Group B: Spain, Croatia, Italy, Albania

Group C: Slovenia, Denmark, Serbia, England

Group D: Poland, Netherlands, Austria, France

Group E: Belgium, Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine

Group F: Turkey, Georgia, Portugal, Czech Republic