NEWBURY TIPS AND PREVIEWS
TRACK: Soft
Track should have a slight prevalence for horses on-speed. Tough to win from the rear of the field unless getting a scorching tempo. Rail-hugging not the worst play either.
3. DESERT HERO
7. MIDDLE EARTH
5. KING OF CONQUEST
8. SALT BAY
Betting Strategy
BACK: 3. DESERT HERO (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.00)
DESERT HERO was short of room and short of distance first up but showed he retained all of his 3yo ability by savaging the line and just missing out. Up in trip to his ideal distance he can confirm the form having thrashed Middle Earth in the St Leger and King Of Conquest wants 2000m.
13. RELIEF RALLY
7. MALC
3. ELITE STATUS
8. MISTER SKETCH
Betting Strategy
BACK: 13. RELIEF RALLY (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.75)
RELIEF RALLY is only a pocket rocket and I’m not sure the 1400m saw her at her best first up. Elmalka went past her that day who went on to win the English 1000 Guineas next, and the winner Folgaria was crunched in betting for the French 1000 Guineas. Back down to sprinting suits and she can show why Yulong splashed the cash to purchase her.
1. BLACK RUN
2. CHANTILLY
12. PREPSCHOOL
6. GOODWOOD ODYSSEY
Betting Strategy
BACK: 1. BLACK RUN (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $5.00)
Got the job done at Newmarket last start and will be rock hard fit now 3rd up. Marquand threw the kitchen sink at him and he responded for pressure and a track with a long straight like this suits his race pattern. He’s punished at the weights but with a soft lead they might not get past him again.
BACK: 1. BLACK RUN (PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $5.00)
Got the job done at Newmarket last start and will be rock hard fit now 3rd up. Marquand threw the kitchen sink at him and he responded for pressure and a track with a long straight like this suits his race pattern. He’s punished at the weights but with a soft lead they might not get past him again.
BACK: 12. PREPSCHOOL (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $9.00)
Headed for home way too soon at Sandown and had the chasing pack cut him down which included Goodwood Odyssey and Brioni. Meets both of those better off at the weights (60.5kg down to 53kg) vs 61kg down to 57 and 55 respectively.
This could be enough to turn the tables or at least get much closer and this race often has lightweights screaming home from the rear. I did not expect to see $26+ on offer.
BACK: 12. PREPSCHOOL (PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $9.00)
Headed for home way too soon at Sandown and had the chasing pack cut him down which included Goodwood Odyssey and Brioni. Meets both of those better off at the weights (60.5kg down to 53kg) vs 61kg down to 57 and 55 respectively.
This could be enough to turn the tables or at least get much closer and this race often has lightweights screaming home from the rear. I did not expect to see $26+ on offer.
BACK: 6. GOODWOOD ODYSSEY (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $5.50)
Goodwood Odyssey was travelling powerfully and always had something to offer when winning last time at Sandown. Had to check back to 2nd last but came bursting through when hitting top gear and the placegetters had no answer to that finishing burst. If the top weight struggles and Chantilly doesn’t handle the drying ground then he looks the one. The finish in this last year was fought by horses storming home from the rear off an even tempo.
2. BIG ROCK
11. INSPIRAL
3. CHARYN
7. POKER FACE
Betting Strategy
BACK: 2. BIG ROCK (WIN) for 5 units (Rated at $3.00)
This is a back to lay strategy. Lay off 2u liability at 1.5, 2u liability at 1.4 and 1u liability at 1.1 I’m expecting an absolutely absurd tempo here with Dear My Friend, Hi Royal, Flight Plan, Audience and BIG ROCK all noted front-runners. Big Rock was devastating when emulating Frankel by going for home with an 8L lead at halfway in the G1 QE2 last season. Facteur Cheval ran into a distant 6L 2nd and then went on to win the Dubai Turf this year to boost the form. He was allowed to dominate that day but I have a sneaking suspicion the Gosdens have entered a public nuisance in Audience to try and go with him and put more pressure on or at least drag the field closer. When the field kept touch with Big Rock at Deauville, Inspiral went straight past him and she’s every chance to do it again if the rain stays away.
BACK: INSPIRAL (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $3.00)
Set your own odds, “set to keep in play” Back Inspiral at $4
She’s going to get the right setup but she may be spotting Big Rock a bit of a headstart. She went straight past him last prep when within striking distance and backed that form up winning at the Breeders Cup. If the rain stays away and Shoemark delivers a peach she can add another G1 to the cabinet.
6. SIYOLA
2. EJAABIYAH
1. DIAMOND RAIN
5. OUR GOLDEN ONE
Betting Strategy
BACK: 6. SIYOLA (WIN) for 5 units (Rated at $1.70)
This horse has been on my Oaks agenda since she walked down to the start at Sandown. She’s superbly bred and her debut win was breathtaking where she didn’t get a clear run but tanked through between horses and powered clear to win going away under hands and heels.
Secret Satire was 3rd in that race and she won the Musidora the other night at York. The form stacks up.
