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FEATURE PREVIEWS: VRC OAKS

VRC OAKS

Track: Flemington | Distance: 2500m | Condition: 3YOF SW | Rail Position: True | Current Condition: Good 4 | Predicted Condition: Good 4 | Prizemoney: $1,000,000

No rain forecast so the track should be in perfect order over the carnival.

Another time-honoured classic won in recent years by the likes of Samantha Miss, Faint Perfume, Mosheen, Dear Demi, Jameka, Personal and She’s Extreme.

HISTORICAL PROFILING (LAST 11 YEARS)

• Prep: 4th up (1), 5th up (3), 6th up (4), 7th up (4)
• Days since last start: 5 days (7), 12 days (3), 19 days (2)
• Performance last start: 1st (7), 2nd (1), 3rd (1), 4th (2), 6th (1)
• Most winners settle forward of midfield, and all were in the top 5 on the turn within striking distance.

SPEED MAP

Average tempo forecasted here.

Tropical Squall should get an easy lead.

Amazonian Lass, Peaky Ridge, Served Cold and Harlow Mist can all race handy.

Vieste, Zardozi, Everlasting Kiss, Another You, Coco Sun all back of midfield.

Basilinna, Ethel Maude, Aethelflaed and Wings Of Song should be out the back.

KEY RUNNERS

1. Tropical Squall – Led all the way to win the Flight Stakes, then led on a soft tempo in the Ethereal and was run down into 2nd. Will be in it a long way but suspect can be run down late.

2. Zardozi – Won the Edward Manifold by 1.4L and then hit the line hard for 2nd beaten a nose in the Wakeful after coming off a 28 day break. Rates highly here.

3. Amazonian Lass – Led and run down into 3rd in the Edward Manifold then led all the way to win the Wakeful after setting a strong tempo up front. Will be on speed again here and in it for a long way.

4. Served Cold – Won The Geelong Classic last start. That race isn’t usually a form reference for this, but noting Kosgei ran 3rd in that race beaten 2.8L, and then ran 4th in the VRC Derby beaten 3.1L. Trainer has won this race with Miami Bound. Can surprise.

5. Harlow Mist – Ran a solid 3rd in the Wakeful Stakes. Trainer has a good record with 3yo Oaks fillies. In the mix.

7. Basilinna – Had the best closing sectionals clearly in the Ethereal Stakes last start. D Oliver’s last 5 VRC Oaks rides have yielded 4 wins and a 3rd.

8. Aethelflaed – Had the best late closing sectionals in the Wakeful finishing 4th beaten 3.9L. Place chance on that.

10. Ethel Maude – Good closing sectionals in the Edward Manifold then won at Pakenham by 4L. Place chance.

SUMMARY

Zardozi looks the clear one to beat.

Served Cold looks decent value with formlines tying in reasonably well from the VRC Derby.

Amazonian Lass & Basilinna both have the ability to figure.

Tropical Squall, Harlow Mist, Aethelflaed and Ethel Maude place chances for exotics.

TOP 5 SELECTIONS

1. 2 – Zardozi
2. 4 – Served Cold
3. 3 – Amazonian Lass
4. 7 – Basilinna
5. 5 – Harlow Mist

BETTING STRATEGY

No Bet in the Oaks. No clear opinion or significant market value at this stage.

RESULTS

Big Winners (Betfair SP Price)

2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.63

2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar $32.60

2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment $28.26

2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier $23

2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run $19.50

2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar $18.95

2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone $15.50

2022 Australasian Oaks: Glint Of Hope $13.55

2023 TJ Smith Stakes: I Wish I Win $12.80

2023 Lightning Stakes: Coolangatta $12.69

2020 Metropolitan Handicap: Mirage Dancer $11.18

2022 Surround Stakes: Hinged $11.00

2020 Manikato Stakes: Hey Doc $10.32

2023 Blue Diamond Stakes: Little Brose $10.24

The Victorian Racing Club Oaks, also known as the ‘Kennedy Oaks’, is a premier Group 1 staying race for three-year-old fillies. The Kennedy Oaks is held at Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne on the Thursday after the illustrious Melbourne Cup during the VRC Spring Carnival. The race measures at just over 1.5 miles (2500 metres) and currently carries a prize pool of $1,000,000, with the winner receiving a cheque for $600,000, making it the equal-richest group of races in Australia for fillies.

Like the Thousand Guineas to the Caulfield Guineas, the Kennedy Oaks is the sister race to the Victoria Derby. It is traditionally known as ‘Ladies Day’ after the introduction of ‘Fashions on the Field’ in 1962. Notable past winners include Research (1988), Miss Finland (2006), Samantha Miss (2008) and Mosheen (2011). Ciaran Maher trained back-to-back winners in 2014 and 2015 with Set Square and Jameka – the latter going on to win a Caulfield Cup the following year. If you’re a punter wanting to boost your betting education, head to the Betfair Hub and check out our experts Kennedy Oaks tips that so many other smart punters rely on.  

Fast Facts:

  • Trainer Bart Cummings has won the race nine times and jockey’s Bobby Lewis and Damien Oliver have each won it seven times. 
  • No horse has ever won the race multiple times. 
  • The first Oaks day race was held in 1861 and was won by a horse called Palestine, making it as old as the Melbourne Cup.
  • The race originally held Principal Status until it was upgraded to a Group 1 in 1979.
  • Between 1861-1972 it competed over 2400m before being extended to 2500m in 1973.
  • In 2016 Lasqueti Spirit won in impressive fashion, leading the entire race and becoming the highest odds winner in history at $101.

 

For the biggest age restricted staying filly race in the Spring Carnival calendar you can rely on Betfair to provide in-depth previews, betting tips and best bets. Betfair’s racing experts deliver Oaks Day tips for each race across the card, as well as extensive analysis, selections and strategies for the main group 1. With 16 runners in the lineup, it can be tricky deciding on a betting proposition, that’s why Betfair offers Kennedy Oaks tips that’ll point you in the right direction. Make sure to head straight to the Betfair Hub to check out the latest Oaks Day tips on offer today. 

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