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FEATURE PREVIEWS: MIGHT AND POWER STAKES

MIGHT AND POWER STAKES PREVIEW

Track:Ā CaulfieldĀ | Distance: 2000m | Race Type:Ā Group 1 WFA | Rail Position: True | Current Track Conditions:Ā Good 4 |
Prediction Track Conditions:Ā Soft 5Ā | Prizemoney:Ā $1,000,000

High quality honour roll in recent years for this key Cox Plate leadup including Ocean Park, Atlantic Jewel, Fawkner, Criterion, Winx, Benbatl, Arcadia Queen and Anamoe.

BETTER ODDS HISTORY

Each of the last three years we’ve seen better odds on the Exchange for the winner of the Might and Power Stakes when compared to the Corporate average.

The best of those came in 2021 when Probabeel caused a minor upset at the $9.50 post commission BSP. This was a handy 18% higher than the corporate average (TAB, Ladbrokes and Sportsbet).

In 2022 we saw Anamoe salute as favourite with a 3% post commision edge, and Alligator Blood did the same in 2023 as the favourite, returning a small edge over the corporate average.

MIGHT AND POWER STAKES HISTORY (LAST 13 YEARS)

  • 6-7 day break (0/6), 14-day break (4/44), 21-day break (5/29), 28-day break (1/3), 30-110 day break (3/13)
  • Mares (4/16), Entires (5/34), Geldings (4/54)
  • 59kg (5), 58kg (2), 57kg (4), 56.5kg (1)
  • 1st up (3/10), 2nd up (2/9), 3rd up (3/24), 4th up (4/48), 5th up (1/9), 6th up+ (0/4)
  • 4yo (3/24), 5yo (7/25), 6yo (0/24), 7yo (3/17), 8yo+ (0/14)
  • Barrier 1-4 (6/51), 5-8 (7/38), 9+ (0/15)
  • Official Handicap Ranking 1 (6/13), 2-3 (6/26), 4+ (1/65)
  • Official Handicap Rating 90-100 (1/42), 110+ (11/53)
  • Average Prizemoney Rank 1 (7/13), 2-4 (5/38), 5+ (1/53)
  • Handy/Pace/? (9/43), Midfield/Back (4/61)
  • Last Start Finishing Position 1-3 (10/57), 4+ (3/47)

SPEED MAP

Deny Knowledge and Jennilala can set a decent tempo here. Mr Brightside, Kalapour and Vow And Declare midfield. Coco Sun, Adelaide River & Atishu out the back.

FINAL FIELD – KEY RUNNERS

1. Mr Brightside – Won the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes two starts back, then 2nd to Pride Of Jenni In the G2 Feehan Stakes. Rates on top but not unbeatable.

2. Vow And Declare – Excels in fast run races. Ran 2nd in this race last year, and was 4th only beaten 2L in the Australian Cup last year. Can surprise here.

4. Adelaide River – Finished well for 4th first up, then can forgive next run. Can surprise.

5. Atishu – Has been ok this prep though below best. Failed at only Caulfield track run.

8. Coco Sun – Has been solid in both runs this prep. Should improve sharply here 3rd up on a hot speed.

DEAN EVANS TOP 4 SELECTIONS

1. Mr Brightside
8. Coco Sun
2. Vow And Declare
4. Adelaide River

 

 

 

SUMMARY

Mr Brightside the obvious one to beat. Expecting a big improvement from Coco Sun. Vow And Declare can surprise in a race with a hot tempo up front. Adelaide River the smokey.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 8. Coco SunĀ (WIN) for 1 unit

BACK: 2. Vow And DeclareĀ  (WIN) for 0.5 units

BACK: 3. Adelaide RiverĀ (WIN) for 0.5 units

BIG WINNERS (BETFAIR STARTING PRICE)

Units Outlayed: 439.4

Units Returned: 466.8

Profit On Turnover: 6.2%

 

BIG WINNERS (Betfair SP):

  • 2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.632020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar ($32.60)
  • 2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment ($28.26)

2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier ($23)

2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run ($19.50)

2021 Randwick Guineas: Lionā€™s Roar ($18.95)

2021 Autumn Stakes: Poland ($18)

2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone ($15)

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