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FEATURE PREVIEWS: GOLDEN ROSE STAKES

GOLDEN ROSE

Track: Rosehill | Distance: 1400m | Rail Position: +2m | Current Track Condition: Good 4 | Predicted Track Conditions: Good 4 | Prizemoney: $1,000,000

Stallion making race with some outstanding colts having won it previously including Zoustar, The Autumn Sun, Bivouac, Ole Kirk & Jacquinot.

 

Historical Profiling (last 11 years):

Historical Profiling (last 12 years)

  • 2nd up – 8 winners, 3rd up – 2 winners, 4th up – 2 winners
  • 14-day break – 10 winners, 21 day break – 1 winner, 28 day break – 1 winner
  • Colts – Last 11 winners, Geldings 1 winner
  • 9 winners of last 11 winners won a black type race as a 2yo. Usually ran very well in the lead up, predominantly the Run To The Rose
  • Last Start Distance 1200m (9), 1300m (1), 1500m (2)
  • Godolphin have won 4 times (Bivouac, Astern, Exosphere & Epaulette). All of them ran in the Run To Rose as the leadup. 3 of them winning. Waller has won it twice.
  • 20 fillies have run for four 2nd placings, two of them at SP $4.40 and one at SP $2.35
  • 10 winners BFSP $8 or less. One $12 and one $42 winner.
  • Total prizemoney Earnings $200k+ (11)
  • Career Wins 2-4 (11)
  • Exchange Rank Rating 1-3 (10)
  • Barriers 1-6 (6), Barriers 8-16 (6)

Interestingly over the past 10 years, only Bivouac and In The Congo has led/sat outside leader and won. All other winners have settled between 5th and 14th. Note in editions with 13 runners or more the settling positions in run have been 1st, 6th, 10th, 11th, 13th, and 14th.

SPEED MAP

Below Average speed predicted here. Libertad & Moravia push to lead with Butch Cassidy also forward.

Charm Stone, Don Corleone, Cylinder, King Colorado & Snapback will be jostling for positions forward of midfield.

Shinzo likely drops back from the gate with Encap, worse than midfield.

Nadal, General Salute & Militarize out the back.

GOLDEN ROSE | FINAL FIELD – KEY CHANCES

1. Militarize – As a 2yo was knocked out of the race in the Golden Slipper, before bolting in to win the Sires Produce by 3.9L and the Champagne Stakes by 1.6L. Solid return when 5th beaten 1L in the Run To The Rose. Maps well back & blinkers first time. Wants the sting out of the ground?

2. Shinzo – Won the Golden Slipper at his 4th start as a 2yo. Comes into this first up. Won Rosehill 900m trial 11 August beating Zaaki by 0.5L. +9.4 last 400m was the quickest of 137 triallers on the day.

3. Cylinder – Won Rosehill 900m 13 Feb trial by 1.2L under no pressure +5.9 last 400m and 5th quickest last 200m sectional out of 128 triallers on the day. Won the Silver Slipper impressively first up then won the Todman Stakes comfortably next start. 2nd in the Golden Slipper before failing on the wet track in the Sires Produce. Won the Vain first up, and the Run To The Rose second up. Had every chance in both. Maps nicely but not convinced his performances have been enough this prep.

4. King Colorado – I’m biased given I am a part owner in this colt, but he won the G1 JJ Atkins as a 2yo at just his 3rd career start despite jumping last out of the gates. Never really got clear running in the Winx Stakes first up and has been kept fresh here off a 35-day break. Has the X-Factor.

7. Moravia – Hit the line well for 2nd in the San Domenico then did work to lead the Run To The Rose and stuck on well for 2nd.

8. Encap – Has run very strong closing sectionals in all four runs this prep, culminating in a strong win in the Ming Dynasty last start. Can measure up.

10. Nadal – Won maiden first up at Kensington running +10.2 last 600m the quickest of all 60 runners on the day, then ran the best sectionals of the race when 3rd beaten 0.5L in the Run To The Rose. Maps back and wide but he has the talent to win.

13. Charm Stone – Won Cranbourne 800m 7 Aug trial by 2L under no pressure beating black type horses +8.5 2nd quickest of 25 trials on the day. Won the Quezette impressively for us first up, then sat 3 wide no cover to win the Atlantic Jewel second up. Absolutely flying and can certainly figure here.

DEAN EVANS TOP 5 SELECTIONS

4 – King Colorado
10 – Nadal
13 – Charm Stone
3 – Cylinder
1 – Militarize
2 – Shinzo

SUMMARY

6 key winning chances in what is an open Golden Rose.
King Colorado comes from a different formline having run first up in the Winx Stakes. 3yos can often take big improvement from a run against the older horses back to their own age. Has the X-Factor about him .
Nadal has big potential and they can draw back and wide and win this race.
Fillies don’t win this race, but Charm Stone is absolutely flying and has drawn to get a great run.
Cylinder ticks the Godolphin/Run To The Rose boxes, but meets a stronger lineup here than his first two runs and 1400m still a test.
Militarize would be top selection on a wet track. Can he do it on the dry?
Shinzo is the query runner. Talented colt who certainly has the ability to win. Market watch on him.

Betting Strategy

BACK 4 – King Colorado 0.7w
BACK 10 – Nadal 0.3w

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