C.F. ORR STAKES PREVIEW
WFA, 1400M, 3YO+, G1, $750k | Rail: True | Track Condition: GOOD 4
On pacers have a very strong record in Caulfield 1400m black type races on good tracks.
Won in recent years by the likes of Mr Brightside, Jacquinot, Hartnell, Black Heart Bart, Dissident, All Too Hard & Black Caviar.
1st up (4), 2nd up (8) All 6 4yo+ 2nd up winners came out of the Moonee Valley 1200m leadup. Mix of geldings, entires, mares and colts have won
HISTORICAL PROFILING (LAST 13 YEARS):
3yo (3/12), 4yo (1/24), 5yo (4/44), 6yo (4/40), 7yo (1/16), 8yo (0/12)
Barrier 1-5 (6/65), Barrier 6-10 (5/57), Barrier 11+ (2/26)
Days since last start 14 (0/16), 15 (5/25), 16-19 (1/8), 21 (2/9), 28 (0/2), 30+ (5/87)
Gear Change (1/23)
Career Starts 6-9 (3/12), 10-17 (1/44), 18-22 (4/28), 23+ (5/64)
1st up (5/84), 2nd up (8/45), 3rd up+ (0/19)
9 of the last 13 winners settled in the first 5. 3 of 4 backmarker winners drew wide and were first up.
Pace/Handy (9/58), Midfield/Back (4/88)
Last Start 1100-1200 (7/42), 1400 (0/23), 1600 (3/27), Other (4/58)
Colt (3/10), Gelding (6/82), Mare (3/23), Entire (1/33)
Last Start G1/G2 (11/107), Other (2/41)
BETFAIR PRICE ADVANTAGE HISTORY
The C.F.Orr Stakes has been a good race for favourites in recent times, with Mr Brightside saluting at $1.99 last year, but still holding a minor price advantage over the corporates, with a 2.4% edge post commission.
In 2023 it was Jacquinot who got up at $4.59 and did so holding a 6.9% post commission price advantage over the corporate average.
2022 saw Tofane get up at the decent price of $7.88, which was also 3.1% better than the corporate average after commission.
SPEED MAP
Slow speed predicted here.
Schwarz & Another Wil up front.
Private Life & Freedom Rally should get a nice run in behind.
Mr Brightside & Semana can settle handy, but are drawn wide and risk getting caught wide with no cover.
Steparty & Pinstriped should be back of midfield.
Southport Tycoon & Super Smink will be out the back.
KEY RUNNERS
1. Mr Brightside – – 8-time G1 winner plus an All Star Mile. Won 3 of past 5 fresh, including this first up last year. Trickier map here
2. Southport Tycoon – Multiple G1 winner over 1200m and 1600m. Was plain first up but blinkers go on here which he wore winning the Manikato Stakes at big odds for us last prep.
3. Pinstriped – Has solid first up credentials, though usually peaks second up.
5. Another Wil – Has won his past two first up runs over 1400m impressively in lower grade. Maps nicely her and rates highly.
10. Private Life – Won the G1 Caulfield Guineas at 5th start, then only beaten 1.3L in the G1 Champions Sprint.
TOP 4 SELECTIONS
5 – Another Wil
10 – Private Life
1 – Mr Brightside
2 – Southport Tycoon
C.F. ORR STAKES BETTING STRATEGIES
Another Wil maps and rates clearly on top, ticking all the historical profiling boxes.
Private Life profiles nicely here and maps to get a lovely run.
Mr Brightside is short and maps awkwardly.
Southport Tycoon the knockout chance with blinkers back on.
Schwarz and Pinstriped could also figure.
Betting Strategy
BACK: 5 Another Wil (WIN) for 2 units
maps and rates clearly on top, ticking all the historical profiling boxes.
BACK: 10 Private Life (WIN) for 1 unit
profiles nicely here and maps to get a lovely run.
RESULTS
G1 Big Priced Winners (Betfair SP Price)
2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.63
2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar $32.60
2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment $28.26
2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier $23.00
2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run $19.50
2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar $18.95
2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone $15.50
2022 Australasian Oaks: Glint Of Hope $13.55
2023 TJ Smith Stakes: I Wish I Win $12.80
2023 Lightning Stakes: Coolangatta $12.69