FEATURE PREVIEWS: AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS
AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS
Track: Flemington | Distance: 1600m | Condition: 3YO SW | Rail Position: +2m | Track Condition: Good 4 | Prizemoney: $1,000,000
Fine weather forecast for Thursday to Saturday. The track should be perfect.
Won in recent years by quality 3yos including Southport Tycoon, Legarto, Mosheen, Shamus Award, Palentino, Hey Doc, Grunt, Alligator Blood & Hitotsu.
HISTORICAL PROFILING (LAST 12 YEARS)
Days since last start 7-10 (0/27), 14 (7/105), 15 (1/3), 17-20 (1/4), 21 (2/45), 30-40 (1/3), 110-140 (1/4)
1st up (1/4), 2nd up (4/73), 3rd up (6/75), 4th up+ (2/39)
Pace/Handy/Midfield (12/119), Back (1/72)
Colt (8/116), Filly (3/21), Gelding (2/54)
Same Jockey As Last Start No (4/90), Yes (9/101)
Last Start Favourite No (4/156), Yes (9/35)
Finishing Position Last Start 1st (7/41), 2nd (3/29), 3rd (1/28), 4th (1/26), 5th+ (1/67)
SP $2.70-$8 (9), $10-$19 (3), $301 (1)
PRICE ADVANTAGE HISTORY
Southport Tycoon’s 2024 victory was a tremendous result for Betfair followers, with the $25.01 price a whopping 22% better than the corporate average and 31% better than best tote after commission.
In 2023, Legarto’s victory at $7.71 was 10.5% better than best tote after commission.
It was a similar story in 2022 with Hitotsu’s $8.19 BSP victory coming in 8.7% better than best tote after factoring in commission.
SPEED MAP
Average speed expected here with Stay Focused the likely leader, with Opening Address and Feroce pushing forward from wide gates.
Savaglee and Goldrush Guru should be handy from decent gates.
Sepals, Plymouth, Detroit City, Savour The Dream and Another Prophet midfield.
Red Aces, No Strings Attached and Statuario back of midfield.
Point And Shoot, Angel Capital, Royal Insignia, Henlein and Ndola out the back.
KEY RUNNERS AND COMMENTARY
1. Goldrush Guru – VRC Derby winner in the Spring who ran a solid 4th in the CS Hayes leadup when sitting outside the leader on a strong tempo. Can run better with cover here.
2. Savaglee – Kiwi raider who has won 4 of his past 5 starts in NZ at G1 and G2 level. Can win.
3. Feroce – Ran 2nd beaten a head in the G1 Caulfield Guineas last prep. Was a solid 3rd first up in the CS Hayes.Â
4. Angel Capital – Was an impressive winner first up in the Autumn Stakes running the quickest last 600m of the day. Rates highly, though gets back which is usually a negative for this race.Â
5. Henlein – Ran 2nd in the Spring Champion last prep. Wet track may not have suited first up in the CS Hayes. Gets back.
7. Point And Shoot – Has run excellent late sectionals in his past two dominant wins at Randwick at Benchmark level. Up in grade and gets well back
10. Ndola – Settled last and ran home strongly for 2nd in the CS Hayes. Right in it with a repeat of that run, but does get well back.
11. Royal Insignia – Won 3 in a row and then didn’t handle the wet track last start in the CS Hays. Can bounce back but another that gets well back.
12. Sepals – Has won 3 in a row including a dominant CS Hayes win last start. Repeat of that would make him hard to beat here. In first prep.
13. Savour The Dream – Has won past two at Saturday Metro level in QLD. Can measure up here.
16. Another Prophet – Won the Thousand Guineas last prep. May not have handled the wet track last start. Can bounce back.
DEAN EVANS’ SELECTIONS
4. Angel Capital
1. Goldrush Guru
2. Savaglee
16. Another Prophet
BETTING STRATEGIES
Open race. Traditionally this race is won by runners in the front half of the field.Â
However many of the key chances such as Angel Capital, Point And Shoot, Henlein, Ndola and Royal Insignia all map far back.Â
Goldrush Guru, Savaglee, Feroce and Sepals map in the front half and look quality chances.
**Dean Evans monitors market fluctuations, track conditions, weather, scratchings, stewards’ notifications, and general news before submitting his betting strategies for Victorian Group 1s. Make sure you’re following Dean Evans on the Betfair App and turn on notifications to get alerted when he shares his strategies—sometimes as close as 30 minutes before a race.**
Betting Strategy
BACK: 1. Goldrush Guru (WIN) for 0.5 unit
BACK: 2. Savaglee (WIN) for 0.5 unit
BACK: 3. Feroce (WIN) for 0.5 unit
Australian Guineas Betting Tips
The Australian Guineas is a premier Group 1 race for three-year-olds, run over 1600 metres at Flemington. Held during Melbourne’s autumn carnival, the race regularly attracts some of the most exciting middle-distance prospects in the country. With a long straight and a high-pressure race shape, it’s an event that rewards both class and strategy — making accurate Australian Guineas tips essential for any punter serious about their betting success.
As a set weights race, the Australian Guineas offers a true test of talent among the age group. Horses may come into the race off different form lines — from sprints, mile lead-ups, or even staying preps — which makes the race both intriguing and complex. That’s why Betfair Hub provides in-depth racing tips and form previews that help you break down the field and make better-informed decisions.
Our team of expert analysts reviews all key factors leading into the Australian Guineas, including speed maps, track conditions, sectional times, and recent form. We go beyond surface-level analysis to give punters the edge with well-rounded predictions. Whether you’re betting early or waiting for late market moves, our Australian Guineas tips are crafted to highlight genuine winning chances and value plays.
One of the key aspects of this race is tempo. At Flemington, the long home straight gives backmarkers a chance, but the early pace often determines who’s in the finish. Our expert previews take this into account, offering a clear assessment of how the race is likely to unfold and which horses are best suited to the expected pattern.
Finding the best bets isn’t just about tipping the favourite — it’s about identifying the horses most likely to deliver at their peak. Our Australian Guineas previews highlight runners that are peaking third-up, suited to the mile, or primed for Flemington’s expansive track. With plenty of form lines converging, our job is to filter the noise and give you reliable, actionable tips.
If you’re placing your bets today, make sure you check our updated tips and previews closer to jump time. We consider late scratchings, track upgrades or downgrades, and any gear or jockey changes that could impact performance. Every update is designed to give you more clarity and confidence at the moment that matters most.
The Australian Guineas has an honour roll filled with stars, and each edition is a valuable reference point for the autumn and beyond. For punters, it’s a race that delivers opportunity — if you’ve done the homework or have access to trusted insights.
Check this page regularly for the latest Australian Guineas tips, market moves, and full race analysis. With Betfair Hub’s expert guidance, you’ll be well placed to find betting value in one of the best three-year-old races of the season.
