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Rail: True Predicted Track Conditions: GOOD 4

Minimal rain expected with hot temperatures through the week, so should be a firm track.

Won in recent years by high quality G1 fillies including Hinged, Forbidden Love, Probabeel, Nakeeta Jane & Shoals.

Historical Profiling (last 12 years)

1st up (2), 2nd up (7), 3rd up (2), 5th up (1)

14-21 days break (8), 35-42-day break (2), 91-105 days break (2)

Barriers 1-7 (12)

Settled 1st-3rd (4). Settled 6th-9th (8)

9 of the 12 winners were G1 mile winners or placed previous prep as 3yos (3 at double figure odds)


Below average speed expected here.

Tropical Squall can get an easy lead with Autum Ballet sitting behind it.

Makarena post likely to roll forward from the wide gate.

Plenty jostling for handy positions after that between Kind Words, Kimochi, Actic Glamour, Tiz Invincible & Kristilli.

Zardozi, Tutta La Vitta, Learning To Fly, Roll On High and Stefi Magnetica out the back.


1. Tropical Squall – Unbeaten fresh. Has been solid enough at the trials. Won the Flight Stakes last prep. Gets a soft lead here. The forgotten filly and profiles very nicely for this.
2. Zardozi – Won G2 Edward Manifold over a mile last prep before winning the Oaks. Will be warming up late here.
3. Kimochi – Placed in the Flight Stakes and Thousand Guineas last prep. Won the Light Fingers first up. That’s the right profile for this race.

4. Learning To Fly – Talented filly who hit the line hard for 2nd first up off a long break. Map and profile a negative compared to others.
5. Tiz Invincible – Won the Tea Rose last prep before 3 wide no cover with no luck in the Flight Stakes beaten 2.9L. Was disappointing first up but didn’t have a lot of luck in the run. Maps better here and certainly has the talent.
7. Tutta La Vita – Ran 3rd in the Flight Stakes last prep. First up here and was hitting the line well with good late sectionals in latest trial. Knockout hope.
8. Makarena – Ran well first up. Likely needs to push forward from the wide gate here.
10. Roll On High – Has run excellent closing sectionals in all 4 career starts. Won Listed race at Flemington last prep before spell. Will be hitting the line hard late.
11. Arctic Glamour – Handy filly who was ok first up late. Visors on should assist. Can figure.


5 – Tiz Invincible
1 – Tropical Squall
3 – Kimochi
7 – Tutta La Vita
4 – Learning To Fly


A G1 mile win or placing in the Spring has found the winner of this race 9 of the past 12 years, including Hinged who we backed to win at $11 Betfair SP two years ago.

Tropical Squall, Kimochi and Tutta La Vitta fit the bill.

Tiz Invincible had no luck however in the Flight Stakes last prep and was dynamite early in her prep last time in. Maps much better this time than last start.


5 – Tiz Invincible – 1.1u win

1 – Tropical Squall – 1.1u win

3 – Kimochi – 0.5u win

5 – Tutta La Vita – 0.3u win


Big G1 Winners (Betfair SP Price)


2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.63

2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar $32.60

2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment $28.26

2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier $23.00

2024 Oakleigh Plate: Queman $19.15

2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run $19.50

2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar $18.95

2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone $15.50

2022 Australasian Oaks: Glint Of Hope $13.55

2023 TJ Smith Stakes: I Wish I Win $12.80

2023 Lightning Stakes: Coolangatta $12.69

2020 Metropolitan Handicap: Mirage Dancer $11.18

2022 Surround Stakes: Hinged $11.00

2020 Manikato Stakes: Hey Doc $10.32

2023 Blue Diamond Stakes: Little Brose $10.24


The Surround Stakes is a Group 1 race held annually at Royal Randwick Racecourse in Sydney, Australia. The race is run over a distance of 1400 metres and is open to three-year-old fillies only. The race is named after champion filly Surround, who won the Cox Plate, the Caulfield Cup, and the Australian Cup in 1976. The race has a total prize pool of $600,000, with $344,000 going to the winner.

The Surround Stakes was elevated to Group 1 status in 2018. The race is now considered one of the premier events for three-year-old fillies in Australia.

Over the years, the Surround Stakes has been won by some of the greatest fillies in Australian racing history. In 2010, the race was won by More Joyous in the middle of her eight race winning streak. Other notable winners include Shoals (2017), and Gold Edition (2007).

Trainers and jockeys who have won the Surround Stakes include some of the most accomplished and successful names in Australian racing. Trainer Gai Waterhouse has won the race six times, while jockey Hugh Bowman has ridden three winners. Other successful trainers include Bart Cummings, John Hawkes, and Chris Waller, while other successful jockeys include Darren Beadman and Jim Cassidy.

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Betting Strategy

5 – Tiz Invincible – 1.1u win
1 – Tropical Squall – 1.1u win
3 – Kimochi – 0.5u win
5 – Tutta La Vita – 0.3u win

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