EXPERT RACING TIPS: ASCOT

ASCOT PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAY MAY 10TH 2025

Betting Strategy

This is a very even (slow) bunch of gallopers where the best ride may end up winning the race. A horse like Pull The Trigger is yet to trouble the scorers this preparation but was never suited at the 1200m fresh, nor snagged to last in an on speed affair second up. Look for him to be ridden with more positivity early and try to replicate his victory in this grade from last prep (DH with Profit Pocket when just behind the speed). Can win, but like most of these, needs it all to go right. I’m Nipote has always raced without luck and is starting to get a bit of that. Beat a horse with a rep (True Blue Bondi) two starts ago and then ran into a Triscari special at Pinjarra. Pike helps. Kelvinater got conditions to suit last week and was gone before the bend. Boussac is putting bookies kids through school. Starts fav nearly every week and plods. Meryl threw the blinkers on Hammarmill with success a week ago, so maybe the lucky shades will work for him?

Betting Strategy

BACK: 4. Ripper Farooq (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.20)

Not fully sold on some of the current form, so happy to look at the returning Ripper Farooq. Competed admirably in the feature 2yo races in his debut prep, before he was part of ‘that trial’ upon resumption (2nd to Magna’s Choice with a big gap back to Admire The Girl, Haida Gwaii, Exceed The Planet). Won his maiden with ease at a very short quote following that before he never had the right setup and had probably had enough in a couple of the big features. He’s been tuned up with a soft 400m trial upon and maps to follow God’s Gate everywhere he goes. God’s Gate recent trial was only fair at best. He has shown he needs the headgear, so will the winkers be enough or do we wait for the blinkers? Pond Master gets a far better setup here and has come back in career best, while Maalis Song races out of his grade, but it was impossible to miss the debut effort.

Betting Strategy

Toropa is the obvious, but there is so much X factor and unknown to this race. Wind And The Lion was actually a really nice recent trial, but can he go to this level after picking up 18 points (9kg’s) in a dodgy Placid Ark? Hanchi trialled better than him, but that was back on the 14th of April. Setback or is this by design? And even if so – where does he get to in this map? Golden Vale is off the 7-day spin back to 1000. Never sure about the quick decline in trip off the 7 days, especially with the short course runners. She is honest though. Celestial Storm the final X factor runner. Ran second to Devine Belief (Twain’s Angel 3rd) first up last prep, but what may be more notable is the strength of the trial pre – no surprises they attack this completely fresh. Toropa makes sense and I like the 3 weeks between runs if she’s being kept to 1000, but outside of Advanced, none of these would surprise me. Happy to stay out while Toropa is sub $3.

Betting Strategy

If Awesome Boy repeats his last effort, they simply can’t beat him. He worked to lead, he kicked and even ran the quickest L200 going away from Sixinch Heels and Pond Master (goes around near fav in R2). It won’t be good for my soul taking even money about a horse who has just put in a huge spike run, so I won’t be betting but it’s also near impossible to bet or tip against him. This looks easier and the map looks softer. Mojo’s Luck is my clear #2. Felt he was the run of the race behind I’m Crafty on Quokka day, and this is his first low draw since 2023 (albeit only 4 runs since). If there is a chink in the armour of the favourite, he’d be the one. Dennis Choux is trying hard and will run another honest race.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 1. Fat Roy Slim (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $3.10)

This is the main attack race of the day with Fat Roy Slim and Fine Touch standouts. Fat Roy Slim is a proven 7-day horse, he’s a proven weight carrier (has won with 60 & 61) and this really is a nice map with 3 or 4 runners likely behind him in transit. The danger for him is the horse with toughness and field position in Fine Touch. Dug deep from the breeze to beat home Blazing Emerald (subsequent winner) before a very similar style of win 3 weeks later. The 2200m is the question mark, but she gives no real indication she won’t stay. The very simple mindset is – if something wins on speed it will be Fine Touch and if something runs over them it’ll be Fat Roy Slim. I’m $3.15 Fat Roy and $3.95 Fine Touch with the market comfortably allowing a play on both. The value may end up the latter, but the aim will be to make both some type of result. What A Prince will land on speed and continues to race well, while Zaza Rock gets in near the minimum. Even with the weights, I just think there is a huge class discrepancy between these two and the rest.

BACK: 2. Fine Touch (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $4.20)

The danger for him is the horse with toughness and field position in Fine Touch. Dug deep from the breeze to beat home Blazing Emerald (subsequent winner) before a very similar style of win 3 weeks later. The 2200m is the question mark, but she gives no real indication she won’t stay. The very simple mindset is – if something wins on speed it will be Fine Touch and if something runs over them it’ll be Fat Roy Slim.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 2. Shooting Spirit (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $3.00)

Shooting Spirit drawn low feels like a real W Pike type of setup. Expecting him to land a bit closer than at his last few (not quick early, but also dictated too by gates), there is a fair bit of speed in this and he’ll still need your stereotypical ‘Pike ride’, but I’m always happy to back him in from 3 the fence. Masamune a clear X factor runner. The return was soft as butter, but we need to keep in mind he beat up on some pretty thin opposition. Looking back to his final run before a year long layoff, he ran 4th behind The Boss Lady, Generosity & Luvnwar. That form has only got better with time. With the speed in this and speed drawn off, it may end up being advantageous to be in a moving line? Will look to save if $4+. Kraken Time will get back to last but can 100% win with the way this race looks to shape on paper, while Eevalina will be the big improver with the bar shoe off. She just doesn’t tell lies.

BACK: 1. Masamune (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $3.90)

Masamune a clear X factor runner. The return was soft as butter, but we need to keep in mind he beat up on some pretty thin opposition. Looking back to his final run before a year long layoff, he ran 4th behind The Boss Lady, Generosity & Luvnwar. That form has only got better with time. With the speed in this and speed drawn off, it may end up being advantageous to be in a moving line? Will look to save if $4+.

Betting Strategy

This is a highly competitive betting race, with so many runners who have been the conduits for big moves in recent weeks. Jaz Session, Ahyeahrighto and Let’s Talk are continually the subject of OTT betting, so it’ll be fascinating where the money lands here. I was in agreeance with the early market setters that Chollima deserves favouritism and Drakaina needs to be somewhere close, so I am thinking that perhaps we show some patience and with the natural weight of support for those 3, we may well get some notable drifts on the above 2? Chollima is dynamite fresh. Her only loss, she was held up the entirety and her prior fresh win she walked past a very smart Rockin’ Rupert. She’ll be back in traffic over 1200m, so you always need to account for luck in your price, but she is pretty flawless fresh. Think she’s the best horse here and because of her luckless career is still a fair way from her mark with a m68 rating. Drakaina is a harder one to read. Trialled like Winx before her WA debut when she was OK over the 1000. Looked like she needed longer? It was a similar trial against Richanco (already won this prep) and we see her at 1200 fresh, instead of the 1000. Ideal world we back Chollima late @ 6+ and save Drakaina 6+, but it’s hard to predict what this market will do. Wicked Venom and Ahyeahrighto both map brilliantly behind a strong tempo – Resonator, Jaz Session, Let’s Talk (who I can’t see any spot apart from 3 deep for). Both are honest, while I feel like the best of Chollima is brilliant. We’ll keep an eye on this market late.

Betting Strategy

$3.30 was my magic number for Snitzalatte which unfortunately has never materialised. Thought her run was as good as any in the Karrakatta and she looked strong enough on the line to suggest the 1400 would suit. While there is a lack of speed in this, Pike will pop her out semi-neutral and let anything that wants to cross, cross. If she ends up leading, you can guarantee it’ll be an absolute walk. I thought there was very little between several others in the Karrakatta – Perfectly Proper (perhaps derives the most benefit from the run as she was first up), Just Too Fly, Statewide and Loves Talking were hard to split from a performance POV. Deltason is the POD runner. Finally got up to the 1400m when beating up on a midweek field. Were they really weak, or was he just lengths better at the 1400m? Possibly both. While I did want to be on this favourite, there isn’t a huge amount between 5 or 6 of these.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 8. First Encounter (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.50)

I’ll rarely back one off a year + lay off, but the price dictates a little play on the returning First Encounter. If you priced this bloke purely off his first trial (clearly bolting throughout), I suggest he’d be significantly shorter. While the second trial was less aesthetically pleasing, I don’t know if he ever really went for him and he was underneath runners. In a race with a lot of ‘nice’ horses, he has the highest ceiling, the best individual runs on the board and his first trial was over a month ago, so we’ll back in the fact he’s fit enough. Currently on the third line of betting, I could make a case he nearly deserves speculatory favouritism. Happy to have a small bet. Western Power is the market elect and while I do get that, it isn’t an easy map for him. May end up breezing outside of Multinational with some talented ones in behind. Do like him over the mile, so not convinced on the drop back to 1400 as a long term move for him. Can win, but at ~$2.50 not for me. Upper Limits put in a couple of really nice trials before he was luckless first up. With some normal luck and landing close enough, he’s found a really winnable race. Siberian Siren gets a near identical setup to her last start win (just harder), while Multinational is likely just tuning up for Belmont, but perhaps the market has over-reacted ($20+?) a little bit to that? Is dynamite fresh and the trial was super.

Ascot Racecource WA Overview