Greyhound Analysis: Gold Cup Heats and Final

Distance: 710m

Track Record: Tornado Tears 41.20 (21/6/2018)

Bago Bluff Best 41.84. Ran this time in heat  with a 1^st split of 15.99. 1 win and 1 placing from 4 starts over this trip. 3 of his 4 career wins from Boxes 2 & 3.

He was the surprise packet of the heats last week and won at cricket score odds. He can run a really cheeky race again here with the benefit of the inside draw. I don’t think he can hold on and win this time but could be value on the place exchange.

Tornado Tears Best 41.20 (21/6/18). Third in heat in 42.01 with a 1^st split of  16.38. 5 wins and 2 placings from 7 starts this draw. Multiple Group Race winner and current track record holder.

I have been steering away from him in recent starts as he just doesn’t seem to be at his best. But, with a return to a rails draw and a very suitable speed map I keep coming back to him. He won’t be able to compete with Dyna Chancer or Bago Bluff early, but this is a good thing as it will allow him to find the rails virtually straight away. He should be powering along and getting closer to the leaders down the back straight and I think he can run over the top of them and win.

Dyna Chancer No best winning time. Ran second in heat in 41.94, 1^st split of 15.90. 29 wins and 26 placings from 73 career starts. Multiple Group race finalist. 2 starts over this trip for 1 placing.

He met plenty of traffic issues in his heat, he was desperate to find the rails and was bumping with Bago Bluff for the majority of the race. The box 8 draw ended up being his undoing so from Box 3 here it should suit him much better. He may go straight to the front this time and it could be a case of catch me if you can.

Peppertide No best winning time. Ran third in heat in 42.06 with a 1^st split of 16.21. Been in the money 14 times from 20 career starts. Only 1 attempt over this trip (in last week’s heat).

His racing patterns can be very hard to predict, some races he explodes out and is right in the finish and other races he misses the kick and is making up the numbers. He is another in the category of needing everything to go right  in order to salute the judge here.

Stevick No best winning time. Ran 4th in heat in 42.08, 1^st split of 16.11. 5 wins and 4 placings from 13 career starts. Least experienced chaser in field. Has won from this box previously.

This is his toughest test to date and I believe this race is too soon for him. He may be a stayer to follow in Queensland in the coming months but he won’t go close here. He is likely to start at $101+ on the exchange.

Bago Bye Bye Best 41.46 (28/3/19) Won heat in 41.47 with a 1^st split of 15.81 (quickest). 3 wins from 4 starts over this trip. 1 win from 2 starts from this draw. Has won from every box.

He was very impressive in his heat win, but was the beneficiary of an inside draw. He seems to race best when he can find the rail early and obtain a forward position, I am not sure he gets such favours here. From this draw I believe he will be over bet and I am happy to have a small set against him.

Poco Dorado Best 41.79 (6/6/19). Ran second in heat in 41.94 with a 1^st split of 15.98. 32 wins and 23 placings from 74 career starts. 7 wins and 3 placings from 12 starts this draw.

She does her best racing from wide draws so that is a big plus for her. She would need to be at her absolute best to win this, which would include her exploding out of the lids and making her own luck out in front. I am happy to tip around her but I wouldn’t be game to lay her at odds of $7+.

Infrared Lad Best 42.14 (28/2/19). Ran fourth in heat in 42.15 with a 1^st split of 15.98. 3 wins and 1 second from 8 starts over this trip. Only win 1 from 7 starts this draw.

He faces a very tough ask from the wide draw here and will have difficulty crossing the field and obtaining a clear run. He doesn’t have the class to win this and I am looking elsewhere.

Veloce Nero 1^st emergency. No best winning time. Ran 5th in heat in 42.12. 1^st split of 16.08. Has won from every box except Box 6.

She is as honest as they come and rarely runs a bad race but she would need a lot of luck in running to win this.

Ella Enchanted 2^nd emergency. No best winning time. Ran 5th in heat in 42.37 1^st split of 16.08.  Recent runner up in the Group 1 Sandown Cup.

She is capable of running freakish times but on face value was a disappointing run in her heat. She should not be forgotten about if she gains a start here. Her best is good enough to win.

Selections

1st – Tornado Tears (2)
2nd – Dyna Chancer (3)
3rd – Bago Bluff (1)

Betting Strategy

BACK – WIN – Tornado Tears (2) > $2.00 (3 units)

LAY – WIN – Bago Bye Bye (6) < $3.70 (1 unit)