Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

Author

Data Scientists

Betfair’s Golf Betting Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and European tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s probability for a particular course. It knows the strengths of each player, pulling data from PGA Tour Stats, and what courses they suit. As well as recent form and a variety of other metrics.

You get golf betting tips, and complementing copy, each week on the Betfair Hub. Plus you can see the model outputs for every player. Compare those with the odds on the Betfair Exchange and you’ll identify value betting opportunities. Both to Lay and to Back.

The Players Championship

No joy last week as Bay Hill bested the field, leaving just four players under par over the week. Rory continued his final round struggles, falling out of contention in similar fashion to a fortnight ago with a horror front nine.

Another tough test awaits players this week at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course. The Players Championship sees a very strong field line up – so strong in fact that Rory is being marked at over double digits by the model for the first time in weeks.

The Woodsman remains on the sidelines with a back issue but otherwise we’ll have the pleasure of watching all of the world’s best players spin around the par-72, 7,200-yard layout.

The course has hosted this even since 1982 so we’ve got a nice dataset with which to cut the course up from a quantitative angle. The length is distributed nicely throughout the holes and presents a true all-round test. The four longer par 4s provide the biggest headache and navigating these will provide the key to victory here.

The shift from May to March and resulting grass change caused the course to play very differently to previous years, with more emphasis on big stick play and less on approach. With the tournament sticking with the March timeslot, we’re expecting more of the same this year.

Conditions are looking fairly mild so don’t expect the poor scoring of last week to persist.

Over the Odds

Xander Schauffele

After a runner-up finish at his first appearance here, Xander followed it up last year with a rare MC. Seems to bring his A-game when surrounded by the best so we like him to return to his 2017 ways this week.

BACK – Xander for the win for 0.4 units at $34+

Hideki Matsuyama

He was looking sharp last week until the wind got the better of him over the final two rounds. Assuming the forecast is correct, conditions will be much calmer this time around so we’re going to stick with Hideki.

BACK – Hideki for the win for 0.3 units at $36+.

Sebastian Munoz

Another familiar name, the market continues to underrate the young Colombian. Absolutely smashing price for a top 20 here. He proved at the WGC Mexico he has what it takes to hang with the big boys so we’re backing him again this week.

BACK – Munoz for top 20 for 0.4 units at $11.50+.



Current Results

Total Units Staked: 105.30

Total Units Returned: 111.52

ROI: 5.91%

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