Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

Betfair’s Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s probability for a particular course. It knows the strengths of each player, pulling data from PGA Tour Stats, and what courses they suit. As well as recent form and a variety of other metrics.

You get golf betting tips, and complimenting copy, each week on the Betfair Hub. Plus you can see the model outputs for every player. Compare those with the odds on the Betfair Exchange and you’ll identify value betting opportunities. Both to Lay and to Back.

Our man Oosthuizen played like you’d expect of a short priced favourite and pretty much lapped the field on his way to an easy victory. While it was nice to nab a win, we’re hoping one of our long shots cashes soon!

With no official Euro events this week, we’ll cover the next best thing – a Sunshine Tour event – if only as it gives us an excuse to get back on the Oost-train. The event takes place at the ominously named Leopard Creek Golf Club, a course at which it wouldn’t be out of the question to actually spot a leopard… or crocodile, lion or many other creatures that wouldn’t mind eating you.

The course underwent a revamp last year and it would appear the changes will make the already easy course even easier as all Kikuyu grass was replaced with faster running Bermuda on the fairways and Bentgrass on the greens.

Over the Odds

Louis Oosthuizen – Rated $6.30

We were pretty pumped when the model churned out another sub-market number on the Oost, especially given its proclivities to over-value recent winners. He’s been a runner-up here twice before and you can’t question his form. Quite simply a must-back.

 BACK – Louis for his 2nd victory in a row

Richard Sterne – Rated $62

There’s bigger overlays on offer, but we really like the veteran Sterne on a course he has excelled at over the years. Had a stinker last week, but we’re willing to overlook that given his history at the course.

 BACK – Sterne at $90+

Ernie Els – Rated $105

Call us sentimental but the Big Easy put in a ripping performance last week and the model rates him a much better chance than the market. Do we think he’ll win? No. But he’s definitely got a couple of good rounds in him to get out in front early for a nice trade out opportunity.

 BACK – The Big Easy at $150+





Previous Tournaments

We carded yet another second as well as a third last week, as Big Tony and JR got smoked by a rampant John Rahm. Golf is a tough sport to bet on but hopefully anyone following the tips has been trading out or dabbling in place or top 20 markets.

This week sees the South African and Joburg Opens combine to form the Franken-tournament “The South African Open hosted by the City of Johannesburg”. The awkwardly named tournament sees a monstrous 240-man lineup featuring players from the Euro, Asian and local Sunshine Tours.

Two courses will be needed to push this many contestants through and both courses put a premium on scrambling, with the Kikuyu rough skirting the greens very difficult to chip out of.

Winds will be up most of the week so we’ll be looking for good scramblers who can handle the breeze.

Over the Odds

Louis Oosthuizen – Rated $7.50

The model has the local hero way ahead of the field here and as the ninth ranked scrambler on the Euro Tour and top 10 in strokes gained around the green on the PGA he fits our target profile to a tee. Not a big overlay but we’ll take value whenever we can get it on a favourite.

 BACK – Back the favourite at $8.60+

Bernd Wiesberger – Rated $37

Took it easy last year after a sensational 2017 campaign, participating in only seven tournaments. The model has not forgotten and still rates the Austrian quite highly. He ranked up near the top on scrambling stats in 2017 so should be a good fit. The market is pretty thin at the moment but the $80 on offer looks tasty – wait a bit and you may see even better.

 BACK – Bernd at $80+

Matthew Nixon – Rated $123

More of a pure value play, the rangy Englishman has posted some strong performances over the last 6 months. A couple of recent poor performances has seen his price blow out to frankly silly levels.

 BACK – Nixon at $400+

The ‘Wood was up to no good again last week as he teased us with three solid rounds before a final round meltdown. He’s up against the cream of the PGA Tour this week as a $9M lighter Tiger Woods hosts the Hero World Challenge. The world’s top 18 golfers, plus the Woodsman himself line up at the exclusive Albany Golf Course in the Bahamas.

The course is definitely on the easy side, featuring 5 par-5s, all of which are ripe for birdies. Wind is the main defence here and there looks to be a bit around, especially on Friday and Saturday. With so many par-5s, scoring on the long holes is a must however the shorter games will be assisted by the 5 par-3s.

The market is currently sitting at an incredible 103%, which means there’s some serious value lurking. If you’re not keen on any of our selections, make sure to check out the model ratings below to see if the model rates your preferred player as a value play.

Over the odds

Justin Rose – rated $8.30

We’ve been loving JR lately and with good reason – the model rates him as the best player in the world. He ranked 5th in par-5 scoring last season and while not as strong on the short holes, his form of late has been irresistible. We’ll gladly take the small overlay.

 BACK –  JR at $9.80 or better.

Dustin Johnson – rated $8.70

A well-known proponent of the big stick, we were surprised to spot DJ ranked second on par-3 scoring. While his production was slightly down from his ridiculous 2017 numbers, we’ve still got him rated a clear second on the model. You’d be mad not to have a piece of DJ on a course with this many par-5s.

 BACK – Dustin at $10+

Tony Finau – rated $13

While the model rankings of Rose and Johnson won’t surprise anyone, Finau at third will probably raise some eyebrows. Big Tony is just incredibly consistent and has proved he’s not afraid to bring it against the big dogs with strong performances in WGC and Major events. He’s got the length, he just needs to nail a few par-3 birdies and he’ll be set.

 BACK – Big Tony at $18+.

The Euro field is significantly weakened by the PGA pinching their top players to hit out with Tiger this week which leaves the door open for some of the lesser lights to step up. The best of the rest head to Mauritius for just the fourth installment of this event. The tournament has the honor of witnessing the only ever par-4 ace.

Not a lot of information available about the course and we’ve only seen it once before as the tournament switches between two locations. From what we can tell, it’s a fairly timid setup with wide fairways and limited sand defences. Wind is the main enemy here and while thunderstorms are forecast all week, surprisingly the wind looks fairly mild.

The winning score here last time around was -6 but we’d expect to see something in double digits this week as soft greens and lightish winds should make this layout far from daunting. With not much to go on from a course fit angle we’ll be leaning heavily on model overlays to pick this week’s fancies.

Over the odds

Richard Sterne – rated $22

A bit of a Tour plodder, Sterne’s best golf is probably behind him. However these weakened events pose a perfect opportunity for veterans to sneak a victory. The model likes his chances and has him rated the third best player lining up.

 BACK – Sterne at $32+

Fabrizio Zanotti – rated $32

Cooled off last season after a strong 2017 however still posted two top 10s and 3 top 20s over only 16 tournaments. Huge overlay this week so we’ll have a piece of the Paraguayan.

 BACK – Fabrizio at $75+

Adri Arnaus – rated $39

The bloke absolutely ripped up the Challenge Tour last year and he’ll be excited to line up against a frankly Challenge-level field here in just his second Euro event.

 BACK – The rookie at $85+.

We went agonisingly close yet again with Patrick Reed last week, making him the third second place finisher this column has picked.

With no break at all, we commence the 2019 Euro season with 18th edition of the Hong Kong Open. You’d be forgiven for thinking being a professional golf was a life of leisure, travelling the world hitting golf balls – but these guys are it basically every week of the year!

The Hong Kong Golf Club course has dimensions appropriate for the tiny island, measuring a scant 6,700 yards, which makes Scott Hend’s win here back in 2014 a real puzzler. A 132 man field will tackle the average width, tree-lined fairways and small Bermuda greens. While the field is almost full size, this event should really be treated more like a 70-man invitational as there are a large number of Asian Tour players on the card with basically no chance of hoisting the trophy.

There’s a clear class gap apparent in the odds, with the top 6 names in a league of their own.  But a look back at past winners show this isn’t a big names’ event – most likely due to its position in the schedule after a long and gruelling season. That said, we’ll be back one of the big 6 and but we’ll be looking deeper for the other tips.

Over the odds

Tommy Fleetwood – rated $5.7

The ‘Wood hasn’t been good to us, as he continues to post solid yet disappointing finishes. With the pressure of trying to chase down Molinari for the season title off his shoulders we think he might finally breakthrough for his first win since January.

 BACK  Tommy at $7.50+.

Victor Dubuisson

A bit of a lost man on Tour, four years back Dubuisson was ripping it up at the Ryder Cup. Since then, an ear injury has been severely hampering his game. He’s taken 6 months off to recover from his latest surgery and we’re backing the feelgood story of a comeback victory at very tasty odds.

 BACK the comeback at $180.

Haydn Porteous – rated $128

The big hitting South African isn’t exactly suited to the tight confines of Hong Kong but he has posted by far the best season of his career this year and could be a sneaky chance to pull a Hend and snatch an unlikely victory.

 BACK Haydn at $270+.

As the PGA closes out its season with a whimper, the Euro goes out with a bang as Dubai hosts the climax of the yearlong points race to be crowned Europe’s best.

Tommy Fleetwood will be attempting to chase down his Ryder Cup buddy Molinari as the top 60 golfers tackle the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates, which hosts the tournament for its tenth year.

The 7,800+ yard Greg Norman design has generous fairways but plenty of bunkers if drives go astray. Rough isn’t really a factor and the greens are large so expect low scoring. Despite the length, shorter hitters who can approach and putt well have succeeded in the past. In fact, the lineup this week includes seven of the last nine winners on the course.

Over the odds

Francesco Molinari – Rated $21

Has had a stunning year and yet still is under-rated by the market. The Italian will be looking to clinch the Race to Dubai on a course he has played extremely well over the years, including four finishes inside the top 10.

We’ll back the man in the best form of his life to improve upon the pair of fourths he posted in ’16 and ’17.

Back Francesco at $25 or better

Patrick Read – Rated $21

The Masters champ is another perennially underrated by the market and we’re loving the price on offer this week.

Would seem like a poor course fit but has posted a pair of 10ths in his two appearances here so we’re happy to bank on his big tournament credentials, backed by the big overlay.

Back Pat at $30 or better

Joost Luiten – Rated $65

We’ve been liking the Joost since his return from a layoff and although he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations, he hasn’t been far away. His price this week is simply too big to ignore.

Back Joost at $200 or better.

Last week our man Fowler stormed home couldn’t catch a dominant DeChambeau – who quite frankly made it look pretty easy.

The Tour heads south of the border this week to Playa del Carmen in sunny Mexico. The El Camaleon track, designed by our own Greg Norman punishes wayward tee shots with all many of penalties awaiting in the form of swamps, forests and other waterways.

It’s a short layout and plenty of small ballers have done well here in the past. The course can get difficult if the wind picks up but the forecast is looking quite benign so not really an angle to attack there. We’ll be looking for players who gain strokes anyway except the tee, with an eye on driving accuracy.

Over the odds

Bud Cauley

One of the few blokes on Tour who could make Rickie Fowler look tall standing next to him, the youngster’s around the green game is his strength while he’s solid with the flat stick which should make the course the perfect fit. Knocked out a top 10 last week so he’s playing well.

Back Bud for the win at $180 or better.

Alex Cejka

Following the theme of short hitters, we like the look of the German journeymen this week. Who is a short, yet accurate driver and possesses and elite around the green game.

Back the German at $480 or better

Vaughn Taylor

Ranked 19th for driving accuracy last season while ranking much lower for strokes gained with the big donk – indicating his length is usually the issue. Expect the Taylor to enjoy the short layout this week.

Back Vaughn at $500 or better.

Rose got the job done for us last week, as you’d hope at his price. You’d definitely never want money on Levy going into the final round as he was spraying it all over the course on his way to +2, one of the worst scores of the day.

This week another truncated field heads to South Africa to tackle the Gary Player designed course in Sun City. The course plays a ridiculously long 7800+ yards but altitude makes it not as long as it looks on paper – still this is one that should favour the bombers.

On a dry week for value we’re going to look for the overpriced bombers.

Over the odds

Rory McIlory

This is becoming a bit of a habit now as somehow the Tour famous for over-rating the stars is undervaluing another big name – albeit not by a huge margin.

Hard to get a read on McIlroy lately but he’s the clear class of the field and he’s much too young to not recapture his stellar form from a few years back. Lead the PGA Tour in driving distance last year so should enjoy the long layout.

Back Rory at $9s or better

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

Decent length, questionable accuracy and a huge overlay make Mike a pick this week. Let’s hope he can keep it on the short grass as the rough does get tricky.

Back Mike at $150 or better

Robert Rock

With most of the board fairly priced we’ll overlook Rock’s poor course fit and focus on the whopping overlay on offer. Has been in pretty good form without setting the world on fire and could be a sneaky chance to go low for a round or two.

Back Rob Rock at $170+ or better.

We went close last week with Tony Finau losing in a playoff while Putnam finished inside the top 5. Hopefully that was close enough to lock in a profit! Moving onto this week, the City of Sin hosts a tournament to support the Shriner’s Children’s Hospital.

The cut is back this week along with a full field to tackle TPC Summerlin, which has undergone renovations for the first time in 25 years since it was last seen on Tour. The changes seem relatively minor so no real angles to play there.

Last year’s gusty conditions saw scoring take a bit hit but with calm conditions currently forecast we should see a return to the low scores of previous years – despite the changes to the bunker setup this won’t be one for the grinders.

We’ll be targeting players with a strong birdie/eagle average and putting along with our traditional model overlay. FInau and Fowler head up the board and the model sees value in both at their current $13.50 prices.

Over the odds

Tony Finau

Led pretty much start to finish before going down to Shauffele with par on a hole he’d birdied all week.  His best results last year were mostly on the easier courses and he ranked 11th in birdie average across the 2018 season. The model has him around $10 against a pretty average field so there’s another nice overlay on offer.

Back Big Tony for the win at $13 or better.

Rickie Fowler

From Big Tony we move on to Little Rickie, another short pricer who is undervalued by the market. The diminutive Californian posted about as strong a season as you will see without nailing an official win, finishing top 25 a ridiculous 70% of the time. He was also top 20 in par or better scoring so knows how to mark the negatives.

Back Rickie for the win at $14 or better.

Grayson Murray

To balance out our two short pricers, we’ve gone a very long shot. While scrolling down the par or better rate leaders from last season, you’ll see mostly familiar names until you reach 21st, where our man Grayson sits. He also pops up as a top over performer one easy courses (does better compared to his predicted strokes gained) so seems a great fit this week.

Back Grayson for the win at $500 or better.

The Euro ships a relatively strong, yet small, field over to Antalya, Turkey to take on the uncomplicated Regnum Carya course. The course hosts this event for the third straight year and with perfect golfing weather predicted this week, expect the lows scores of the last two installments to continue.

With a course designed for as an excuse to enjoy the incredible Mediterranean weather rather than challenge players, the rough is relaxed and the greens are large. Driving distance definitely gives a bit of edge but short hitters have done fine here in the past – David Horsey finished second two years back with a pedestrian 274 yard average over the four days.

With no clear trends to guide our picks we’ll be going with straight model overlays this week.

Over the odds

Justin Rose

Rose is quite simply the class player of the field here and while he is a very short priced favourite, the model has him even lower. Has been in scintillating form without a win but we feel it’s only a matter of time.

Back Rose to win at $5.5 or better.

Tommy Fleetwood

It’s likely never to be repeated but we are keen on the top two on the board this week (on both Tours!), with the small overlay on Fleetwood too good to refuse given the lack of value elsewhere. Another player in ripping form without a win we think can get it done.

Back Fleetwood to win at $9.50 or better.

Joost Luiten

After a 5 month hiatus, Joost was let loose over in Spain and showed no signs of rust as he finished 11th, albeit against a pretty poor field. Like him to reannounce himself with a strong showing this week.

Back Joost to win at $48 or better.

The Tours come together for a joint tournament out over in China for this season’s first WGC and final event of the Asian Swing. The reduced field means each pro is  guaranteed prizemoney and a round on Sunday.

This tournament has been played at the same course, at Sheshan International Golf Club for each of its five installments, so expect the market to overvalue course form on the Exchange.

It makes intuitive sense that there are courses that are suited to a particular players’ game, but measuring the impact of any single course is nearly impossible given how few observations we have.

Using a clustering approach to group courses with similar features would give us more observations to work with and it’s an area we’d like to explore in future modelling. However, even this method is complicated by the sometimes vast changes course undergo season to season.

In the meantime we’ll apply a qualitative approach to reinforce picks of players overpriced by our quantitative approach.

The course would seem to favour longer hitters, but only if they’re keeping it straight – with a huge discrepancy in GIR when attacking from the short grass compared to the edges.

The only really consistent theme in scoring is the lack of it – the course seems to play differently each year and has been won by players with very different games.

With this in mind it seems a good week to take a purely model driven approach and back to blokes with the biggest price overlays.

Over the odds

Tony Finau

The big unit posted a storming finish to last season and hasn’t missed a cut for four months (we’ve got a sneaky suspicion he might continue this streak). Goes very long off the tee but his accuracy is sometimes an issue. The big overlay helps alleviate any fears this may cause.

Kevin Na

He’s been quietly working his way up the model rankings so expect to see more of the short hitting American. Absolutely monster overlay this week almost certainly due to his poor past performances on the course.

Andrew Putnam

We’ve gone a short and a mid-pricer so we’re rounding out the picks with a real long shot. After returning to the big leagues last year, the lanky young gun posted his first victory – albeit against a field weakened by a WGC event played the same week. He also posted some impressive results against full strength fields and after keeping his card we’re backing him to continue improving.

The Tour stats in Asia as another abbreviated field heads to South Korea for a guaranteed four rounds of fun on the second leg of the Asian Swing. The course at Nine Bridges on Jeju Island proved a solid test on its Tour debut last year, ranking in the top five for difficulty.

A closer look at the scoring breakdown shows the tricky to read, slopey greens were the culprit and things certainly weren’t helped by the blustery conditions.

The wind looks like it will stay down this week, so we could see a big shift in scoring. With a three-putt rate at double the Tour average last year, we’ll be having a look at three-burger avoidance stats as our angle, along with around the green play. Both JT and Koepka have a shot to take the number 1 ranking this week, but we don’t see any value there.

Over the odds

Kevin Na

Top 10 on tour in both around the green and putting play, including a solid three-putt avoidance rate? Yeah, Na perfectly fits the bill here. He spent the first 8 years of his life in Korea so we’ll give him the local edge here as well.

Stewart Cink

We’ve taken a break from the Dome over recent weeks but at a price double what the model is throwing out we’re happy to get back on this week. Started to season strongly last week as he continues a bit of a renaissance in his career.

Adam Hadwin

Quietly had a career year in 2018 as he posted his first Tour victory. His strengths line up with what we’re looking for with an excellent around the green game and he lays it up like Steph Curry once he’s hit the short stuff.

Sergio Garcia hosts his fellow Euro compatriots at a course he has an incredible record at. After a makeover in 2016, the tree-lined track at Valderrama doesn’t play as tough as it has historically but still punishes errant tee shots as they’re likely to end up on the wrong side of a cork tree.

We’ve only had one look at the course post-refurb, with Sergio edging Joost Luiten with a score 13 strokes lower than the previous winner’s.

GIR seems to be the key stat on the refurbished layout, with 7 of last year’s top 10 finishers ranking 12th or better over the week. Weather looks to be OK, with cool temperatures and light winds.

The market has latched on to Sergio’s excellent course history and installed him at an absurdly low $5 – this should present some better opportunities for us not to much further down!

Over the odds

Lee Westwood

He missed the cut in his home tournament last week, but before that was in a solid vein of form. Ranks very highly for GIR and has done very well on this course earlier in his career so we like him to bounce back this week.

Matthew Southgate

A GIR machine, Southgate has put together an incredibly consistent season in 2018. Has the ability to go very low so might make a good trading opportunity if he hits his straps early.

Justin Walters

A favourite of this column, Walters has been slightly off his game since his blistering May and June but at long odds in a small field we’ll have a piece of him this week.

The Tour heads to sultry Kuala Lumpur this week as an abbreviated field will tackle all four rounds in a no-cut event at TPC KL. If you’re one who favours grass type analysis, the greens have been recarpeted with Bermuda – resulting in them speeding up significantly. A very short course with a lot of water in play, it’s historically been very easy to score on.

Weather is looking like typically Malaysian with rain and huge humidity forecast throughout the week. Should be a nice soft course for some dart throwing, provided you can handle the draining humidity.

A very short, but fairly priced JT heads up the board this week followed by a string of underpriced midrangers. We’ll be looking a little further down with a familiar name coming up at big odds this week.

Over the odds

Louis Oosthuizen

The South African is a past winner here although with the course revamp that may not mean so much. The big weakness in his game is on approach, so the soft greens should help cancel that out somewhat this week. His South African heritage should help him work through the conditions.

Kyle Stanley

A look back through Kyle’s results last season shows he likes the easy courses, with his best performances coming in events that go low. Let’s hope his stint at Clemson U helped him acclimatise to muggy conditions.

Chez Reavie

We’ve taken a few week off from the Chez-stick but this week’s overly is just too good to pass up. After a flurry of missed cuts towards the end of last season, Reavie has turned the corner after a strong showing at the PGA Champs. Tends to do his best work early in the season so we like him at long odds here.

We’re not sure what ‘hosting’ a tournament means, but this week Justin Rose is inviting over his fellow Euro players for some British Masters action on the classic Walton Heath course. A very long course with fairways protected by nasty heather and greens by deep bunkers – accuracy with the big and loft sticks will be crucial here. If greens are missed, scrambling will definitely come into play as well.

The forecast is for rain during the first and third rounds and wind will almost certainly be a factor. Currently it looks like the wind will be relatively constant throughout the AM/PM sessions but check closer to tee off to see if there are any early/late starting angles to be played.

Over the odds

Justin Rose

Yep, that’s right – this column is backing a favourite! With a chance to reclaim his world number 1 ranking this week, we think Rose will make sure everyone has a drink, get some tunes going then blitz the field to ruin everyone’s party.

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

The huge overlay on offers is enough for us to overlook his sometimes wayward driving. An excellent sand player, he should be able to get himself out of trouble if he misses greens.

Harold Varner

We liked the American at home last week and we like him abroad here. Despite the Ryder Cup blowout, PGA Tour players tend to be a class above their European counterparts, something that seems a little lost on the market given Harry’s price.

After the drama of last week’s Ryder Cup you could be forgiven for forgetting the 2018/19 season starts this week. With no offseason to speak of, golf is one of the few true year round sports. This is what makes it such a great sport to model – there’s no off-season list changes or natural improvement to worry about, we get a look at these blokes week in and week out.

There are a number of new faces on the Tour this season and while the model doesn’t completely disregard their Web.com Tour performances, they are downweighted compared to performances on the big boy Tour.

The impressively name Silverado Resort and Spa hosts the season opener for the fifth year. The fairways are tight and most approaches come from wedge distance so we’ll be looking for accurate drivers and quality approach players. There’s less of an emphasis on putting than your regular Tour destination so that may open up some possibilities.

The big names are all taking a well-earned rest which opens the door for a few of the Tour’s up and comers and journeymen.

Over the odds

Lucas Glover

Glover is a bit of a Tour plodder, making cuts and a few top 10s but never really threatening the podium. He possesses one of the Tour’s better tee shots and while his approach game isn’t ideal, there’s enough of an overlay here for us to hang our hats on his lead off shot.

Harold Varner III

After four straight missed cuts in the middle of last season, Varner found his groove and posted three top 10s in his next eight starts. He’s the right age to keep improving and the model’s liking the signs here.

JJ Spaun

Another younger player who had a career year last season, Spaun fits our target profile perfectly here, with strength off the tee and on approach while his putting lets him down. Often starts strongly so look for an early lay here to freeroll the next three days.

Europe’s version of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am gives some of the Americans a chance to redeem themselves over a three course format in Scotland. The rotation reprises a Carnoustie layout which should be a little less nasty than we saw for the British Open.

While this event might be somewhat of a holiday for some, the big purse on offer means the bulk of the field will be taking it very seriously. Carnoustie will play the toughest of the three layouts here so keep that in mind when comparing scores in play.

After a gorgeous summer, Scotland has returned to its true self and it looks like four days of cold, wind and potentially rain. With this in mind, we’ll be targeting players from in and around the British isles as they’ve given us 13 of the past 17 winners here.

Over the odds

Andy Sullivan

After a lull in form in 2017, Sullivan is back to very close to his best with a string of top 10 finishes last season. We like him to continue that positive momentum at a course that should suit him.

Richard Sterne

While not from the UK, we’ll let Sterne slip in here as the South Africans are known for their links play. His form has been steadily trending upwards and some recent strong finishes should give him confidence heading in here.

David Drysdale

Drysdale started last season with a string of seven missed cuts, which saw his rating take a beating. He’s turned the corner somewhat since then and while still posting some terrible rounds, he’s mixing in some top 10s – the perfect recipe for a long shot.

The big prize is on the line this week as a win for any of the current top 5 in the FedEx cup standings will mean a $10M payday. The masters of their destiny are Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Rose, Tony Finau, Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas. Assuming these five play poorly, a number of other players are in with a shot, with even the Big Cat a chance if things go his way.

East Lake Golf Club has hosted the season closer since 2004. The fairways are narrow and have been historically difficult to hit, with thick rough to contend with when missed. Josh Culp has pulled an incredible stat showing that GIR percentage falls from 81% when approaching from the fairway to just 44% when shooting from the rough.

Weather looks fine so no angles to play there. Let’s see what the model has spit out.

Over the odds

Francesco Molinari

With all of the big names coming up at very short prices this week, we’re back on the forgotten big name of Frank Molinari. Followed up an average opening round last week with three excellent ones so comes in on with some momentum. He’s an outside chance of bringing home the trophy so the motivation is definitely there as well.

Jason Day

Has faded somewhat after a blistering start to the season but it’s absurd to write off the big tournament specialist and the price on offer is excellent considering the tiny field. His elite around the greens game should suit the course.

The Euro heads to sunny Portugal to tackle an easy to score on Arnold Palmer designed course in Vilamoura. Wide fairways make this a bomber’s paradise so we’ll be chasing those proficient in the art of the long stick. Past winners have been top 20 in driving distance and have usually putted well.

Perfect golfing weather means we don’t need to get clever with any angles there and this should be another shoot out with scores in the -20s. Sergio Garcia heads up the model predictions as he returns to the Euro but as usual we’ll look a bit further down the board.

Over the odds

Richard Sterne

The brother of famous pen-maker Nikko, Mikko has been off the pace after a scintillating fortnight of play back in June. He played all four rounds last week and with a solid driving, approach and putting game we like him to turn the corner this week.

Justin Walters

Any links style course should have you hunting a Scotsman to back and this week our man is Ramsay. A good off the tee and approach game should suit a course. His missed cut last week has offered a nice price.

Jason Scrivener

Continuing our theme of recurring picks, we like what Scrivo has been up to lately. Another player criminally underrated by the market, we’ll have a little piece of him each week while he continues to priced around $300.

As the PGA takes a two-week hiatus before the season ending Tour Championship we’re left with the Euro to keep us busy. The lads from Europe head to Holland for an OG tournament that has been on the schedule since its inception.

The Dutch has been played for the last two years at the appropriately name ‘The Dutch’, a short par-71 with bunkering reminiscent of links courses, penal rough and the best greens in Europe (would you expect any less, the Dutch really know their grass). With the greens often elevated, solid iron play is key here with past top finishers ranking highly in GIR while driving accuracy is also critical with water in play on many holes.

Over the odds

Mikko Korhonen

The brother of famous pen-maker Nikko, Mikko has been off the pace after a scintillating fortnight of play back in June. He played all four rounds last week and with a solid driving, approach and putting game we like him to turn the corner this week.

Richie Ramsay

Any links style course should have you hunting a Scotsman to back and this week our man is Ramsay. A good off the tee and approach game should suit a course. His missed cut last week has offered a nice price.

Bradley Dredge

Our roughie of the week is the Welsh veteran Dredge. Had an absolute stinker last week which has seen his price balloon out near $400. His penchant for a strong opening 36-holes followed before fading hard means we’ll be hunting opportunities to lay off in-play.

The BMW rounds out the FedExCup Playoffs as 69 of the Tour’s finest will go all four rounds in an attempt to pinch a victory from the dominant DeChambeau (our man Hatton gave it a good shake before a diabolical final round last week!). Not seen on the Tour since 2011, the course at Aronimink offers a tough, Major-like test. While fairways have been expanded 20% since the last iteration, bunkers have been scattered everywhere. The longish course will test both long iron and wedge-play for a good all-round examination of talent.

With a largely similar field lining up to the last two weeks and no weather angles to play, the model isn’t throwing up anything particularly revelatory but we’ll have a dig for some value nonetheless.

Over the odds

Francesco Molinari

So it only takes one missed cut for the market to write off Molinari? We really can’t figure out how Tony freaking Finau is paying a good $10 less than him. Anyway we’ll happily take advantage of the market’s extreme short-term focus to load up on the British Open champ at an insanely good price.

Patrick Cantlay

The young Californian has put together a very respectable season, with a flurry of top 10 finishes and a win right back in November last year. His tee to green game is nothing short of elite, he’s just let down by his flat stick. If he can start draining even a few of the chances he creates, he’ll be right up the top this week.

Louis Oosthuizen

A pure value play, Oosthuizen hasn’t had an incredible season. But his second place at last year’s PGA champs shows he has what it takes to go deep against the big names.

The Euro heads to one of the world’s most picturesque golf courses perched high in the Swiss Alps. A uniquely short course, playing under 6,900 yards, Crans-sur-Sierre features tree lined fairways and tiny greens. Scrambling and GIR are the two key stats here, with winners over the past 6 years ranking top two in at least one category over 72-holes.

After a strong showing last week, defending champ Fitzpatrick comes in as a very short favourite and as usual we’ll be avoiding the top of the board like the plague.

Over the odds

Benjamin Hebert

The Frenchman has been gradually working his way up the model’s rankings with consistent if unspectacular play, having only missed 3 cuts all season (ironically one of which was his home tournament). While neither an amazing green hitter nor scrambler, the big overlay more than compensates us.

Jorge Campilo

The Spaniard hit the skids after a podium finish at the Irish Open and looks to have taken a month off to sort out his game. He’s posted 6 top 5 finishes this season, which leads the Tour. Ranks very highly in GIR and should be fresh and ready to reclaim his form from earlier in the year.

Mathew Nixon

The Englishman is currently in the best form of his career posting strong results in the BMW International, Irish Open and Porsche Open. Another not incredibly well suited to the course, but $350+ is a very big price for a man who seems to have really found his game.

The second leg of the Fedex Cup playoffs takes place this week at TPC Boston, with 98 of the 100 qualified golfers suiting up. With wide fairways and reachable par-5s, scores will be low so we’ll be steering clear of the grinders in favour of the downhill skiers. While length is an asset, a look at past winners shows that shorter hitters can also do well.

Weather is looking reasonable but with a tee off delayed until Friday due to a holiday stateside, it’s best to have a peek a bit closer to the event. DJ continues to be rated well ahead of the pack by the model and the market agrees. As usual we’ll swerve the big names and target some mid-pricers who have been overlooked.

Over the odds

Tyrrell Hatton

Usually plying his trade over on the Euro, Hatton has posted some solid results on his trips across the pond, including top 10s in both American majors. Nailed a 7-under final round last week after walking into a golf shop and buying a new putter straight off the rack. Let’s hope he shows up in Boston this week with a whole new bag of sticks!

Zach Johnson

The other Johnson has been spectacularly unspectacular this season posting top 20 after top 20 while only missing a single cut. With little weakness in his game, maybe a few putts go his way to elevate him further up the board this week. He does have a habit of fading after 36 holes so if he does make a move it’s probably wise to lay off.

Stewart Cink

The Dome has really hit his straps at the back end of the season with 5 top 5 finishes in the last couple of months. After a seriously strong showing at the PGA we can forgive him last week’s missed cut, especially considering his excellent second round. His approach game remains elite and we like him to throw some darts this week on an easy course.

The Euro heads to Ryder Cup skipper Thomas Bjorn’s home course this week. Unfortunately with the veteran rated as one of the worst players on tour by our model we simply can’t back him. The course is a sub 7,000 yard par 72 with some gettable par-5s. With no course history to lean on, the market has priced up the ‘big’ names.

As has become the norm for the Euro we’ll be dodging anyone near the top of the board as they are consistently underpriced.

Over the odds

Thomas Detry

We’re not keen on his Belgian compatriot Pieters but we do like the look of Detry this week. Continues to post extremely strong finishes to tournaments so if he can work his way into a solid 54-hole position we like him to close out for his first Euro victory.

Nick Cullen

We’ll keep this short – we’re going to keep picking the Aussie as long as the market keeps throwing up high triple figure prices.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

The young South African has been steadily improving his game since earning his card in 2016 after a stellar junior career. Very big price on offer for a player of his potential.

The first event in the FedexCup playoffs, the Ridgewood Country Club hosts 120 of the Tour’s finest at the tough, traditional course. With nasty rough and greens well protected by bunkers we’ll be chasing a strong tee-to-green game with a focus on driving accuracy.

A fairly priced DJ heads up a very strong field and with the market underpricing the other big names, we’ll be looking at some mid-priced fancies for value.

Over the odds

Alex Noren

The model is liking a lot of the Euro boys this week and our pick of them is the Swede Noren. He sat out what is basically his home tournament last week so you know he’s dialled in for this event. Not particularly well suited to the course but the hefty overlay on offer means we’re still keen.

Louis Oosthuizen

Another generously priced international hope, the South African doesn’t possess an incredibly accurate driving game but his elite around the green play should hopefully make up for it. His form has been solid without being spectacular and with a tendency to fade as tournaments wear on, definitely keep an eye on laying him off.

Chez Reavie

After five straight missed cuts, the Chez Stick found his game at the PGA Champs, making a final round charge to finish 12th. His elite driving accuracy should help him avoid the rough that has been described as like “steel wool”.

The Euro heads the Czech Republic this week for the fifth instalment of the Czech Masters. With the tournament being played at the same course over this stretch the market has latched on to course history and installed Pieters at the absurdly low price of $7. While he is definitely the top chance, no one is worthy of being that short on the roulette wheel that is the European Tour.

A course that would seem to favour the bombers, has actually seen some strong finishes from the shorted hitters. GIR seems to be the common theme, so with that in mind we’ll head to the picks.

Over the odds

Nick Cullen

The Aussie’s game continues to trend in the right direction his solid GIR game should suit the course. He made the cut here last year and has improved out of sight since then. Really like his chances here.

Justin Walters

We can’t seem to get away from the big South African and despite our lack of success we’re going to stick with him as long as the market keeps posting up big numbers. He’s got great length of the tee and his GIR stats are middle of the road so he’s not without the tools to get the job done here.

Jinho Choi

The young Korean has posted three top 10s in the last 12 months and comes into this tournament on the back of making four straight cuts, all in decent tournaments. Strong GIR should make up for a lack of length off the tee.

The Euro heads to Gottenburg, Sweden with the big names taking a week off after the two big events over the last fortnight. With neither of the top Swedes picking up the sticks the market’s gone for the next best thing – a Dane.

The model agrees that Olesen is a rightful favourite but with the Euro being the crapshoot it is, there’s rarely any value at the top of the board and this week is no exception. With not a lot known about this course, we’ll be leaning heavily on modelled prices.

Over the odds

Bradley Dredge

The Welsh veteran has arrested a form slump that saw him drop out of the model’s top players. He posted an excellent 36-hole performance at the European Open before fading. With very few big names to dominate the board, another two good rounds should bank us a solid profit.

Justin Walters

After his ripping finish to the BMW, the South African has gone off the boil somewhat but the model is showing a longer term trend in improvement so we’ll stick with the big fella with the potential to go low.

Jason Scrivener

The model has given his rating an absolute beating over the last few months and while we’d usually write him off due to trending in the wrong direction, the overlay on offer here is just too big to ignore. The Aussie has some excellent golf in him and given he’s still young so we’re willing to write off his current slump as temporary.

The PGA regular season draws to a close this week with a weakened field lining up at Greensboro to tackle a very traditional course where length off the tee isn’t of huge benefit. With some of the easiest holes on Tour scores should be low this week so we won’t be targeting the grinders!

The model sees last year’s winner Stenson and Hideki as fairly priced while Simpson is well unders. Let’s see if we can dig up a few shorter hitters who’ve been flying under the radar on a Tour that usually favours length.

Over the odds

Steve Stricker

Come on, if you’ve been following this column even in passing you must have known Strick was going to pop up. The market just has no love for the old fella despite his continued solid form.  His poor off the tee performance won’t hold him back here so we’re getting on board once again.

Chris Kirk

We’ve been waiting for a good overlay to jump on the round one wonder – Kirk leads the Tour for increase in win expectancy after the first round. Another who’s performance is hurt by his poor driving distance, he should be well suited this week. If he blasts a low round first up, definitely be looking to lay off some if not all of your exposure, as he’s not known for keeping it up!

John Huh

Rounding out our list of short hitters is John Huh. The man with a name straight out of an Abbott and Costello sketch has an awful off the tee game and to be honest he’s not particularly great anywhere else. He’s had a 3rd place earlier in the year and placed 7th last month so he’s got the game to get to the top of the board. A big overlay combined with a course that removes his biggest weakness from the equation should certainly tips the odds in our favour.

The 100th edition of the PGA Championship takes place at Bellerive Country Club this week. A much shorter, waterlogged version of the course was last seen on Tour back in 2008. This year will be the final time the PGA Championship rounds out the year’s Majors as it moves to May in 2019. With greens averaging roughly the size of two IMAX screens, the course takes accurate approach shots or a long-range layups with the flat stick. GIR is crucial as there won’t be there won’t be many one-putts this week.

With course history completely irrelevant here the market has latched onto the past tournament winner angle, one that really bakes the noodle considering this tournament moves every year. Regardless, the market’s overvaluation of the likes of Rory and Day has presented great value further down the board.


Over the odds

Francesco Molinari

The hottest man in golf cooled off last week and who could blame him after the run he’s had. Ranks number three on Tour for strokes gained tee to green, which he’ll need to lean on with the spacious greens not offering easy putting opportunities. Only a modest overlay on offer but who wouldn’t want to ride Frankie’s hot streak?

Ryan Moore

Following the same theme, Moore is top 20 in both of the above stats. His 12th place at the Open Championships a few weeks back shows he has what it takes for these big tournaments and the model is showing a very nice overlay.

Emiliano Grillo

The model’s opinion of the young Argentine continues to diverge from the market’s and although his form lately has been weak, were going to load up on him again at a huge price. Grillo is the top ranked sniper, holing 25 foot or greater putts at a rate higher than anyone else on Tour. This should help him pinch enough shots to get him up the leaderboard this week.

Andrew Putman

Coming in on the back of a top 10 in the Canadian Open and a win last week, albeit against a severely depleted field, we’re a bit shocked at the price on offer. Despite his name he’s pretty average with the flat stick but with an overlay this big we simply have to jump on.

Stewart Cink

Rounding out the picks this week is another long shot, the veteran Cink. His masterful approach game sees him rank 20th in proximity to the pin which should allow him to make up for his lack of length of the tee by avoiding three and hopefully two-putting the monster greens.

The third instalment of the World Golf Championships takes place this week, with an abbreviated field tackling Firestone CC. Dusty walked it in last week but he’ll be up against a much more talented field and on a course that doesn’t lend itself to par-5 scoring he isn’t the best option. We’ll be targeting accurate drivers and bogey avoiders on a course that isn’t easy to score on.

Over the odds

Henrik Stenson

The big Swede is a great fit for the course as one of the most accurate drivers on Tour. He’s been in great form this season and with the big names being hugely overrated by the market this week we can snag a very tasty price.

Paul Casey

The Englishman bombed out in the final round over in Germany last week but was right amongst it through 56 holes. A massive overlay on the modelled price means we will ignore any possible jetlag.

Pat Perez

We back the big unit most weeks as the market keeps coming to the party with huge prices. This week is no exception and we think our man is good for another couple of low rounds to trade down below $100 for a tidy profit.

Porsche European Open 2018

A few of the top PGA players have stuck around this week for a spin around the appropriately named Green Eagle course in Germany. This course is long, very long, playing up to 7,830 yards with 5 par 5s for the big hitters to attack. The market is heavily favouring the Americans and past solid performers at the course so we’ll need to plumb a little deeper to find some value.

Over The Odds

Bradley Dredge

The Welsh veteran isn’t exactly suited to the course, but his model overlay is just too good to refuse in a field that other than the top few is really quite weak.

Nick Cullen

The Aussie isn’t the biggest hitter going around but he does have solid par-5 scoring potential, likely due to his excellent accuracy. His form has been trending very nicely over the past year and the market doesn’t seem aware of his potential. Great price at around $290.

Jeff Winther

Another unheralded player with form sneakily trending in the right direction, the Dane ranks very highly on par-5 scoring, helped by his 18th rank on Tour for eagles per round. A good price and seemingly good course fit looks like a good play.

RBC Canadian Open

The Open last week had everything, Tiger at outright leader in the final round, another Speith meltdown and the first Italian to win a major! Five of our hopes finished inside the top 20, with Perez right up the top at the halfway point so some excellent trading opportunities were on offer.

This week sees the Tour head north of the border to the very first course Jack Nicklaus designed. With decent sized fairways and generous rough, distance off the tee is a big benefit here which the market seems to have realised as the Dustman heads the board even after his stinker last week. With not much value to be had, DJ wouldn’t be the worst pick but we’ll try to do a little better.

Over The Odds

Steve Stricker

We’re definitely not big fans from a course fit perspective, but in a dry week the value on offer for Strick is just too much to resist. Hopefully his solid GIR can make up for his lack of length.

Chez Reavie

Reavie keeps popping up as great value and his opening round at the Open last week showed us what he is capable of – both from a golfing and trading perspective (he traded near $1000 prematch!). Yes, he’s missed 5 of the last 6 cuts but if you always followed recent form you’d rarely find any value!

Shane Lowry

The big Irish unit doesn’t have any particularly exciting aspects of his game but sometimes all you need is a solid price compared to the model and we’ve got that this week.

 

Had our first real wipe out last week, with a dominant Michael Kim ruining any hope of trading out in the PGA and our Euro hopes way off the pace. So it’s great timing for a Major this week, where mug money flows strong and value abounds!

We’re looking at another tough course this week as Carnoustie, sometimes referred to as Car-Nasty, hosts the 147th instalment of golf’s oldest Major. We’ll be hunting for blokes who can handle a sand wedge as the course is dead set crawling with bunkers – more than 100 of them line the fairways and protect greens. Scotland has enjoyed a ripping summer with very little rain so the course is playing very fast, meaning accurate, rather than long drives will be key.

We’ll be playing a bit of a weather angle this week, targeting overpriced stick men who tee off early on Thursday when conditions will be the most favourable of the entire week.

Over The Odds

Jason Day

Before we get in to the longer chances, Jason Day has actually popped up as solid value at his current $42. Not helped by his tee time, he does possess elite around the green skills and has a history of excellent performances in the big tournaments.

Patrick Cantlay

We’re back on the Californian this week as the market seems to have forgotten the fact the man can really play. He is a bit of a fair weather sailor but a great tee time and huge overlay on his modelled price is too hard to ignore.

Emiliano Grillo

He let us down in the tricky conditions of the US Open but we’re sticking with him here. Grillo tees off near the front of the pack on Thursday when winds will be very mild. A very accurate driver, solid sand player and elite putter the Argentine has been threatening to break out for a while and we feel this could be his week.

Webb Simpson

Currently sitting third on tour for scrambling and another with an early tee time, we like Simpson to recapture his form from a few weeks back when he blitzed the field at the Players’ Championship, with TPC Sawgrass a reasonably similar course in terms of hazards.

Ryan Moore

While Moore tees off at perhaps the worst possible time, which will see him cop the worst of the wind on both days – there’s just too much to like about him. He’s top three in driving accuracy, top ten in scrambling, performs better on tough courses, hits the ball incredibly low – these are all traits that will serve him well this week.

Pat Perez

The mulleted one is a regular in this column as he always seems to be paying frankly ridiculous amounts. His form has been erratic but he’s had 5 top five finishes, including a victory this year so he knows where the hole is. An early tee time on Thursday doesn’t hurt either!

With the big names taking time to prepare for the British Open next week, a very weak field lines up for a likely shoot out at Deere Run. With soft greens and not a lot of wind, expect a lot of birdies to be made at the very easy par-71. Accurate driving and wedge play is the order of the day here, with the shorter hitters not at any disadvantage. Our man Frankie Molinari is a fairly priced favourite this week so we’ll be looking to some of the lesser lights for value.

Over the odds

Steve Stricker

While we don’t subscribe to course history, it’s hard not to get excited at Stricker’s incredible past performances here – he notched up three straight victories earlier in the decade. Usually these sort of stats mean there’s no value to be had, but the model has Stricker second favourite at 16s. This is a great opportunity to sneak a victory in the twilight of his career.

Chez Reavie

Looks like a case of the market overreacting to his recent missed cuts here as Reavie has had a very solid season. Possessing an excellent approach game and elite driving accuracy, the course should suit him and the model is rating him a much better chance than the current market price.

Vaughn Taylor

We were on the veteran last week and we’re coming back for more. Another very accurate driver, which should set him up to throw some darts at the soft greens. Some money going through at 250s which is a hefty overlay to his model price.

Over the odds

Jorge Campillo

On a Tour where the bigger names are perpetually overvalued, Campillo’s price has a scratching our heads. He posted an incredible final round last week which nearly saw him join Knox and Fox in the Irish Open playoff. Conditions this week should be very similar so we’re loving the Spaniard!

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

The Frenchman with the Spanish name has been steadily improving his game and although he’s been missing a few cuts lately – it’s last week’s that likely has the market spooked – he’s been mixing in some very solid performances. Huge overlay on offer for a bloke playing the best golf of his long career.

Jason Scrivener, Matthias Schwab, Justin Walters

On a Tour as unpredictable as the Euro, it’s worth having a chop at a few real long shots. These guys are all paying $1000 (!) and are rated much better chances by the model. While they certainly won’t be winning, they might make it up near the top of the leaderboard at some stage and that’s all we need to profit.

The column nailed its first winner last week as Frankie Molinari blitzed the field. We’ll look to keep up that solid form as the Tour moves to Old White TPC in the mountains of West Virginia for the newly renamed A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier. The high altitude course offers a lot more leniency than the punishing setups of the last few weeks, with wide fairways and forgiving rough. A fair bit of rain in the forecast this week so keep that in mind when looking for trading opportunities. If rain softens up the course we could be looking at some very low scores.

A course that doesn’t punish bad shots brings some of the longies into the mix and with the top of the board looking fairly priced this week, that’s where we’ll be looking.

Over the odds

Ryan Moore

Before we get to the long shots, we start with Ryan Moore. A top 30 player in all strokes gained categories except putting, Moore has a very solid all round game. We feel the market has read too much into his missed cut last week and in a very weak field by PGA standards, Moore is in with a great chance with the model rating him fourth favourite.

 BACK – Ryan Moore

Jason Kokrak

Krak has been having a tough year, culminating in three straight missed cuts. When you look a little deeper, you’ll see his first rounds aren’t the issue – it’s the three after where he stinks it up! The beauty of trading on Betfair is you only need one good round to create a solid profit, so we’ll have a crack (sorry) at the one-round wonder.

 BACK – Jason Kokrak

Vaughn Taylor

Taylor has been plodding around the Tour since the early 2000s and there’s not much to say about him other than there is a solid overlay on offer against his modelled price of $130. Another who likes to post a quality first round then fade out he’ll hopefully present a nice little trading opportunity.

 BACK – Vaughn Taylor

The big names of Europe line up this week for a true links test on a seaside course on the Northwest tip of Ireland. What could’ve been a brutal test is looking a little easier, with winds forecast to be relatively calm. That said, keep an eye out for any changes that could present trading opportunities.  Mcilroy and Rahm dominate the board this week and we don’t see any value up top, but we’ve dug up some huge value long shots a big deeper in the pack.

Over the odds

Thomas Detry

The Euro model is a little more aggressive in incorporating recent form than the PGA model and is liking what it see with the young Belgian. Hidden in his Belgian Open score were two incredible stroke play rounds where he dominated the field.

 BACK – Thomas Detry

David Lipsky

After a solid 2017 campaign, Lipsky has cooled off somewhat this year. Following our theme of the week, Lipsky has a habit of going low opening rounds then fading out. At his current $300+ price, we think he can shorten significantly if he manages a quality opening 18.

 BACK – David Lipsky

Justin Walters

He doesn’t do too well when the going gets tough, but if the wind stays down the ultra-aggressive South African should have a chance at capturing his scintillating BMW Open form from two weeks ago, where he was just one shot off the pace after 36 holes. Crazy price on offer for a man with his birdie making potential.

 BACK – Justin Walters

 

The Tour heads to Maryland this week, for an invite only event hosted by Tiger’s charity organisation. Looking short on paper, the course actually plays a little longer in practice with some lengthy par 4s. We’ll be looking for accurate drivers to navigate the skinny fairways lined by tricky rough.

Over the odds

Francesco Molinari

One of the leading off the tee players on Tour, we’re loving the Italian this week. His form has been solid this season and in a fairly weak field the model has him rated as second favourite.

 BACK – Francesco Molinari

Ted Potter Jnr.

A fairly unremarkable player, we like one aspect of Potter’s game – his ability to go low. Has posted some ripping rounds this season and if he can manage one early we should trade lower than his current 200s.

 BACK – Ted Potter Jnr

John Huh

Not a lot of value up the top of the board this week so we’re forced to dig up players like Huh. Not much to say about him other than point out there is an absolute monster of an overlay available!

 BACK – John Huh

 

A Ryder Cup preview is on offer this week takes place at the stadium-style Le Golf National just outside of Paris. Justin Thomas makes a rare appearance on the Euro Tour as he susses out the links-style course that will reward solid iron play.

Over the odds

Justin Thomas

The model has the American streets ahead of the field here and while there isn’t a huge overlay on offer, he’s the only one of the top few offering any sort of value and really is a class above the rest of the contenders.

 BACK – Justin Thomas

Richie Ramsay

The Scot should feel at home on the mostly featureless and quite exposed course. Had some good scrambling practice at the US Open recently and although he missed the cut, we think he’s a much better chance than the 250s currently on offer.

 BACK – Richie Ramsay

Matthias Schwab

We were on Schwab last week and he was right amongst it until the incredibly low scoring final round. He’s been quietly posting some very solid results and we’ll keep backing him at these big prices.

 BACK – Matthias Schwab

A rare sight in Europe, the Jack Nicklaus designed course at Gut Larchenhof hosts this week’s BMW Championship. With a minimal amount of trees the wind can have a big impact, so target those heading out early as forecasts show wind increasing from mid-morning on Thursday. Fleetwood backs up from his superb US Open performance and is a deserved favourite here so we’ll need to look further down the board for some value.

Over the odds

Jorge Campillo

Looks like the market is reading a little too much into Jorge’s last two performances as he was absolutely lighting it up prior to those. We’re not big proponents of course form so aren’t too bothered by his history here either. At time of writing, $75 is an amazing price for a bloke who’s had 5 top 5s in the last 4 months.

 BACK – Jorge Campillo

Matthias Schwab

The Austrian has spent most of his career on the Challenge Tour but has stepped up to the big leagues this year and made quite and impression. While the model may be overrating his second-league form somewhat, we think he’s poised for a breakout and love the look of the 130s on offer for him.

 BACK – Matthias Schwab

What a US Open! Absolute carnage spread across the four days. Three of our picks made it up near the top of the leaderboard at some stage during the tournament so there were some great trading opportunities.

This week sees a much more sedate trip to a very short Pete Dye course in Cromwell, Connecticut.  The weather forecast looks favourable so target the iron specialists and expect some low scoring! Looks like punters are still recovering from last week’s craziness as there hasn’t been much of a market formed but we’ll try to dig up some more value picks.

Over the odds

Patrick Cantlay

We went close on the big-eared Californian a few weeks back and while he was off the pace at the US Open, so were some of the world’s best – at least he made the cut! Has a great approach game and if he can get the putter firing we really like his chances.

 BACK – Patrick Cantlay

Pat Perez

Another who struggled but ended up on the right side of the cut line last week, Perez has been mixing mediocre performances with top 5s this year and we like the 130s on offer for him this week.

 BACK – Pat Perez

Robert Garrigus

The longy of the week is tour veteran Garrigus. While you may not be familiar with him, he sits 16th on tour for shots gained on approach shots this season. Unfortunately, he’s been absolutely rubbish with the flat stick which has seen him miss cuts in nearly half the tournaments he’s entered. If he can sort out the putter, his cracking approach game should hopefully see him knock out a low round or two.

 BACK – Robert Garrigus

Shinnecock Hills in upstate New York hosts the season’s second major this week. Since last hosting the event in 2004, the course has grown 444 yards and lost basically all trees, putting it firmly in links territory. With so little cover, weather could be a massive factor here. However given it’s proved near impossible find a consistent forecast this week, we’ve gone mostly on model prices for the tips, with a sprinkling of GIR and scrambling. We’ve dug right into the card and have come up with no less than six big value plays.

Over the odds

Henrik Stenson

Elite driving and top flight scrambling combined with loving the tough courses? Stenson absolutely jumps off the page even before considering the hefty overlay on offer.

BACK – Henrik Stenson

Paul Casey

The Englishman’s form has up there with the best of them this season – OK maybe not quite DJ or JT standard… but he’s paying a solid $55 bucks (and has dropped $15 while I’ve been typing this up!)

BACK – Paul Casey

Steve Stricker

A favourite of this column, the Strick probably doesn’t have what it takes to win, but does have what it takes to trade below his current $210 price.

BACK – Steve Stricker

Emiliano Grillo

Another who loves a struggle, the Argentine has been in great form of late, with four top 10s in his last 10 starts. Has a very solid all round game, the only knock is his scrambling which may hurt him given the near 100 bunkers in play.

BACK – Emiliano Grillo

Ian Poulter

The Englishman loves the tough courses and this week is looking like anything below par might get the job done. Recovered nicely since a couple of missed cuts early in the season.

BACK – Ian Poulter

Charles Howell III

The man hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire but his four top 10 finishes this year show he can put four rounds together. Will only take on good one to trade below his lengthy current price.

BACK – Charles Howell III


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