EXPERT GOLF TIPS: PGA & EUROPEAN TOUR

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Welcome to Betfair’s home for golf betting tips in 2022! We’ve got free betting tips, plus course and player advice for every event on the PGA and European Tour thanks to Betfair’s uniquely designed Golf Model.

The Golf Model takes arbitrary data and harvests it to help project future performance. The Model assesses every player on form and suitability and weighs their chances against Betfair markets to help you pinpoint value betting opportunities.

It is a proven source for big-priced winners for several years, tipping Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $140 to win the 2019 Andalucia Masters, Daniel Gavins at $140 in the 2021 ISPS Handa World Invitational and Luke List to win the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open at $95.

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This Week’s Event

Just one more week before the PGA Championship and the big boys are taking the opportunity to tune up before hitting Southern Hills. We’ve got a star studded 156-man field making the trip to TPC Craig Ranch, which delivered some big scoring in its inaugural appearance last year.

The Byron has been stretched from last year, when the tees were moved up to account for soft conditions. The scorecard reads a chunky 7,468 yards and will be played as a par-72. Fairways here are conducive to the big bashers, with very generous landing areas, however rough should they give it a real spray is on the nastier side.

Greens are massive, so players will have little trouble finding an angle from basically anywhere on the course. Last year the GIR percentage came in at 74%, which is miles above Tour average. With winds forecast to be fairly mild, about the only real defense this week will be the brutal heat – temperatures will sit in the mid-30s across the four days.

Keys to Success

We’ve only got one year of data to dive into and conditions last year couldn’t be more different than we’re expecting this time around. Interestingly, driving distance didn’t explain much variation last year, when it was all about approach and around the green play.

Given this stands at odds with the eye test, we’re not going to be applying any course fit overlays to the model this week.


Betting Markets

Clear world number 1 Scottie Scheffler has quite rightfully been installed as the favourite here, but we think the market is underestimating the gulf that exists between him and the rest of the field. Other than JT, who the market has gotten spot on, the rest of the top names are all lays – with Burns and Spieth particularly underpriced.

It’s hard to go past Scheffler here and there’s a small overlay available, but we’ll be going for some juicier value further down the board.

Player Bets

Seamus Power

He’s come off the boil a bit after an absolutely stellar run of form through the end of 2021 and the start of this year. The two missed cuts he’s put up in his last two starts has no doubt contributed to his price here but we’ve seen enough to write them off as random variation rather than the start of a mean reversion.

BACK (WIN) — Power for 0.4 units at $70+

Bubba Watson

While it’s difficult to dig out individual performance from the pairs play of the Zurich Classic, we thought Bubba was absolutely scintillating, playing his best golf in years. We’ve got a decent overlay here without giving him any bump for length which looks like it will certainly be important so we think he’s a great play this week.

BACK (WIN) — Watson for 0.3 units at $80+

Hideki Matsuyama

After a lean patch in terms of wins through 2018-2020, he got going in a big way starting with his green jacket. While his price here isn’t incredible, we’ll back him any time there’s even a sniff of an overlay, which frankly happens much too often (although annoyingly not when he’s been posting his Ws!).

BACK (WIN) — Matsuyama for 0.2 units at $29+

This Week’s Event

After a quick trip to the motherland, the Euro heads off back to continental Europe, with the Belgians the next group of fans to be treated to top flight golf. The tiny country is well represented on tour, with the two Thomas’ – Detry and Pieters as well as a returning Nicholas Colsaerts calling it home.

This is the first running of the Soudal Open, with the North Course at Rinkven Golf Club in Antwerp playing host. It’s a short walk around the par-71 which measures just 6,924 yards.

We’ve had a look at the track before when it held the unique Belgian Knockout event. It’s tight and tree-lined which played right into the hands of the accurate hitters. We saw a premium put on accuracy and don’t expect that to change in a regular strokeplay format.

There is an opportunity for the bigger hitters to attack the short par-4s so the perfect formula would be dialling it back when needed but unleashing a big drive when the risk-reward trade off is in your favour and hopefully finding the green.


Betting Markets

The local boy Pieters comes in as a deserved favourite – and he isn’t the worst play if you wanted to back the shortest price on the board.

Wiesberger, Horsfield and Meronk have all been priced up well, however Otaegui and Perez are definite avoids. While we’d love to back some local talent, it’s two South Africans and a German who offer the best value in Belgium.

Player Bets

Thirston Lawrence

The youngster continues to be priced way over the odds while he continues to reach higher and higher levels of form. We’ll keep backing him until the overlays dry up, hopefully he jags a win before they do!

BACK (WIN) — Lawrence for 0.4 units at $75+

Hennie Du Plessis

Another young South Africa who has taken his game to new heights this year. He hits a long ball which he can hopefully put to use on those ripe par-4s. With a T6 and T3 in his last three starts he comes in with ripping form and is a must back here.

BACK (WIN) — Du Plessis for 0.3 units at $48+

Oliver Bekker

While he’s at the opposite end of his career from our two top tips, Bekker is in a similarly strong run of form, reaching new highs in his observed lifetime performance. You have to be happy to find an overlay driven by a true undervaluation rather than a couple of dodgy results and we’ve found this rare scenario for every play this week!

BACK (WIN) — Bekker for 0.2 units at $36+





Current Results

Biggest Winners

2022 Farmers Insurance Open — Luke List at $95

2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions — Cam Smith at $26

2021 ISPS Handa Word Invitational — Daniel Gavins at $140

2019 Andalucia Masters — Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $140

2021 Sony Open — Kevin Na at $70

2020 Sanderson Farms Championship — Sergio Garcia at $65

2020 Genesis Invitational — Adam Scott at $38

2020 RBC Heritage — Webb Simpson at $30

2020 Memorial Tournament — Jon Rahm at $25


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