Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

Author

Data Scientists

Betfair’s Golf Betting Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and European tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s probability for a particular course. It knows the strengths of each player, pulling data from PGA Tour Stats, and what courses they suit. As well as recent form and a variety of other metrics.

You get golf betting tips, and complementing copy, each week on the Betfair Hub. Plus you can see the model outputs for every player. Compare those with the odds on the Betfair Exchange and you’ll identify value betting opportunities. Both to Lay and to Back.

Wells Fargo ChampionshipCanary Islands Championship

Another nothing week, with our sole hope Conners never really got going. With the déjà vu event taking place on the Euro we’ll be digging right into the absolutely stacked field heading to Quail Hollow to take on the Wells Fargo Championship.

The 156-man lineup features eight of our top ten ranked players and depth all the way down the board – this will be a very difficult tournament to win.

The Quail Hollow track reads 7,521 yards on the card and is played as a par-71. The course is tree-lined so accuracy while not critical is certainly useful but unlike recent weeks, length off the tee is most definitely a requirement for success here. Due to the lined fairways, accuracy is also needed. With that in mind, big hitters like DeChambeau, McIlroy and Tony Finau all get a nice bump here.

Taking a look at the hole breakdowns, it’s easy to see why length is so necessary with nine par-4s that stretch 450+. There are two shorter par-4s that could present eagle opportunities to only a select few.

Greens are heavily bunkered and very quick so players will need to be attacking them from reasonably close to have any chance of hanging on. Basically you’ll need to hit it long and straight, or be ready to hit some delicate wedge shots to have any chance at success this week.

The forecast is looking decent, with winds getting over 20km/h at times, but with so many trees about this shouldn’t really be a factor.

The market has gotten it mostly right and it’s a rare week that we won’t be backing favourite son of the column Jon Rahm. JT is a little too short so our first tip will be the next man on the board.

Over the Odds

Bryson DeChambeau

We’ve got him just nudging JT to be second favourite here, due mostly to course fit. The Hulk’s length will present him opportunities that no other man on the course will have and we’re going to take advantage of that.

BACK — DeChambeau for the win for 0.5 units at $15.50+

Corey Conners

We’re going to stick with Conners as there is another juicy overlay available on him.

BACK — Conners for the win for 0.3 units at $42+

Kevin Streelman

It’s been a while since we had a ping at a real long shot but the price here is too good to resist having a piece of. He’s currently trading at about double what the corps have him at and their price is correct according to the model – get on quick!

BACK — Streelman for the win for 0.1 units at $220

Dean Burmester shot the lights out in his first and last rounds to clinch a commanding victory and he doesn’t have to wait long to return to what is surely his favourite haunt – he’ll line up again this week at the same course!

The Euro’s done this a few times lately – played back-to-back tournaments across the same track. While it probably isn’t making things too exciting for golf fans, it really makes things boring for the writer of a golf column. What we said last week can be copied and pasted into this week’s comments – basically expect another birdie-fest.

With nothing in the way of stats available from last week’s efforts we can’t even take a better look at the track from a quantitative perspective.

Wind is up a little more than last week, but nothing tournament changing. With that horrible preview out of the way let’s get into the tips. There’s a lot of value so we’re going to cast a wide, low stake net.

Over the Odds

Sean Crocker

Let himself down with his final round last week but he was in the hunt up to then.

BACK — Crocker for the win for 0.3 units at $32+

Pep Angles

Another whose final round wasn’t good enough to get amongst the top placings we’ll back the strong overlay and hope he can put four together this time around.

BACK — Pep for the win for 0.2 units at $85+

Masahiro Kawamura, Andrew Johnston, Matthew Jordan, Justin Walters

Not much to say here other than we’re backing the big value on offer.

BACK — Kawamura for the win for 0.1 units at $65+

BACK — Johnston for the win for 0.1 units at $70+

BACK — Jordan for the win for 0.1 units at $70+

BACK — Walters for the win for 0.1 units at $140+



Current Results

Total Units Staked: 167.90

Total Units Returned: 190.13

ROI: 13.24%

Biggest Winners

2019 Andalucia Masters — Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $140

2021 Sony Open — Kevin Na at $70

2020 Sanderson Farms Championship — Sergio Garcia at $65

2020 Genesis Invitational — Adam Scott at $38

2020 RBC Heritage — Webb Simpson at $30

2020 Memorial Tournament — Jon Rahm at $25

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