Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

Betfair’s Golf Betting Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and European tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s probability for a particular course. It knows the strengths of each player, pulling data from PGA Tour Stats, and what courses they suit. As well as recent form and a variety of other metrics.

You get golf betting tips, and complementing copy, each week on the Betfair Hub. Plus you can see the model outputs for every player. Compare those with the odds on the Betfair Exchange and you’ll identify value betting opportunities. Both to Lay and to Back.

No luck whatsoever last week as we bagged a pair of seconds with our tips. It continues a bit of a lean run since an explosive start to the year. This isn’t unexpected in a sport like golf and we’ll continue to focus mainly on the Winner markets as that’s where the largest value is. However, if you want to smooth out the variance, a value tip in a win market is almost certainly value in the place markets as well.

We’ve actually got a pretty interesting event taking place over in Northern Ireland. The ISPS Handa Invitational is ostensibly the Northern Irish Open and continues to the recent tour of the British Isles. That in itself isn’t all that interesting, but the event will see men and women tackle the same course at the same time.

The double size field will require an extra course to be thrown in the mix – players will play a single round at Massereene while the remainder will take place at the more familiar Galgorm Castle track.

Massereene is a tiny little par-70, played over just 6,827 yards. There’s not a huge amount of information available but the fairways are likely to be fairly narrow and greens on the smaller side, however, it will likely still be overpowered by even the shortest of hitters.

The Galgorm Castle layout will be much more challenging, despite not being all that much longer. Last time the 7,005 course made an appearance at the 2020 Irish Open, rough was positively brutal and only the winner made it to double-digit scoring. We’d expect the course to play a little easier this time around but there will still be some challenge.

Justin Harding and Andy Sullivan have been installed as basically joint favourites but we’re not seeing any value there, however, there are some sizable overlays not too much further down the board.

Over the Odds

Will Besseling

The Dutchman has been in good form lately, posting a series of top-20 finishes. He’s great value to elevate to the top of the table this week.

BACK — Besseling for the win for 0.2 units at $48+

Laurie Canter

He’s got a near-identical overlay to our good friend Masahiro Kawamura but we were underwhelmed by his flat stick performance this week so we’ll go with the man who loves to tear up an easy course.

BACK — Canter for the win for 0.2 units at $36+

Josh Geary, Daniel Gavins, Niall Kearney, Garrick Porteous

Massive value out there this week and we’re going to cast a wide net.

BACK — Geary for the win for 0.1 units at $90+

BACK — Gavins for the win for 0.1 units at $140+

BACK — Kearney for the win for 0.1 units at $130+

BACK — Porteous for the win for 0.1 units at $150+

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 183.60

Total Units Returned: 196.86

ROI: 7.22%

Biggest Winners

2019 Andalucia Masters — Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $140

2021 Sony Open — Kevin Na at $70

2020 Sanderson Farms Championship — Sergio Garcia at $65

2020 Genesis Invitational — Adam Scott at $38

2020 RBC Heritage — Webb Simpson at $30

2020 Memorial Tournament — Jon Rahm at $25

related articles

NRL Prediction Model

Using proven methods, The Data Scientists’ NRL Predictions Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting NRL outcomes. If ...

AFL Prediction Model

Betfair’s internal team of Data Scientists have created an AFL Prediction Model. The model creates probabilities for every game. ...

Golf Betting Systems & Strategies

This article will uniquely describe golf betting systems and strategies that are used to success. With professional golf tournaments ...