EXPERT GOLF TIPS: PGA & EUROPEAN TOUR

This Week’s Event

Just one more week before the PGA Championship and the big boys are taking the opportunity to tune up before hitting Southern Hills. We’ve got a star studded 156-man field making the trip to TPC Craig Ranch, which delivered some big scoring in its inaugural appearance last year.

The Byron has been stretched from last year, when the tees were moved up to account for soft conditions. The scorecard reads a chunky 7,468 yards and will be played as a par-72. Fairways here are conducive to the big bashers, with very generous landing areas, however rough should they give it a real spray is on the nastier side.

Greens are massive, so players will have little trouble finding an angle from basically anywhere on the course. Last year the GIR percentage came in at 74%, which is miles above Tour average. With winds forecast to be fairly mild, about the only real defense this week will be the brutal heat – temperatures will sit in the mid-30s across the four days.

Keys to Success

We’ve only got one year of data to dive into and conditions last year couldn’t be more different than we’re expecting this time around. Interestingly, driving distance didn’t explain much variation last year, when it was all about approach and around the green play.

Given this stands at odds with the eye test, we’re not going to be applying any course fit overlays to the model this week.

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Betting Markets

Clear world number 1 Scottie Scheffler has quite rightfully been installed as the favourite here, but we think the market is underestimating the gulf that exists between him and the rest of the field. Other than JT, who the market has gotten spot on, the rest of the top names are all lays – with Burns and Spieth particularly underpriced.

It’s hard to go past Scheffler here and there’s a small overlay available, but we’ll be going for some juicier value further down the board.

Player Bets

Seamus Power

He’s come off the boil a bit after an absolutely stellar run of form through the end of 2021 and the start of this year. The two missed cuts he’s put up in his last two starts has no doubt contributed to his price here but we’ve seen enough to write them off as random variation rather than the start of a mean reversion.

BACK (WIN) — Power for 0.4 units at $70+

Bubba Watson

While it’s difficult to dig out individual performance from the pairs play of the Zurich Classic, we thought Bubba was absolutely scintillating, playing his best golf in years. We’ve got a decent overlay here without giving him any bump for length which looks like it will certainly be important so we think he’s a great play this week.

BACK (WIN) — Watson for 0.3 units at $80+

Hideki Matsuyama

After a lean patch in terms of wins through 2018-2020, he got going in a big way starting with his green jacket. While his price here isn’t incredible, we’ll back him any time there’s even a sniff of an overlay, which frankly happens much too often (although annoyingly not when he’s been posting his Ws!).

BACK (WIN) — Matsuyama for 0.2 units at $29+