Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

Author

Data Scientists

Betfair’s Golf Betting Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and European tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s probability for a particular course. It knows the strengths of each player, pulling data from PGA Tour Stats, and what courses they suit. As well as recent form and a variety of other metrics.

You get golf betting tips, and complementing copy, each week on the Betfair Hub. Plus you can see the model outputs for every player. Compare those with the odds on the Betfair Exchange and you’ll identify value betting opportunities. Both to Lay and to Back.

Mayakoba ClassicGolf in Dubai Championship

After a rare week off in this jam-packed season the PGA returns on Thursday with a 132-man field heading south of the border for the Mayakoba Golf Classic. The El Camaleon Golf Club at iconic Playa del Carmen will host the field on its 7,017-yard, par-71 layout.

While positively minuscule by Tour standards, there are enough in the way of hazards lurking just off fairways to give the bombers pause before reaching for the big donk. In fact, many players have chosen to club down off the tee in order to avoid some of the nasties.

Unfortunately, we don’t have any Shotlink data to take a quantitative look at the course, but a quick look at historic overperformers shows that elite wedge players thrive here more so than the long hitters. The stimp is typically set pretty slow here, to protect from balls rolling around should the coastal winds pick up.

There are thunderstorms forecast throughout the week however winds will be mild. Given the course is so short, damp fairways shouldn’t inhibit players too much while the soft and slow greens should allow some real dart throwing – expect a LOT of scoring this week.

As the last stroke-play event of the season, there may be a few players heading down with a focus on a downing few cervezas and working on their tans. While we intended to keep it to small stakes this week in light of the potentially lacking motivation, there is an absolute bonanza of value on the board so we’ll be having a bit of a ping!

Over the Odds

Brendan Todd

Finding value on the defending champ is a rare occurrence so this play is a no brainer.

BACK — Todd for the win for 0.4 units at $55.

Chez Reavie

The Chez stick has been a real up and down player over the last three years and he’s in a bit of a down at the moment after a real wipeout at the RSM. Let’s hope he’s focussed on turning around his form for the new year more than drowning his sorrows.

BACK — Chez for top 10 for 0.4 units at $7.40+.

Tyler Duncan

Speaking of defending champs, Duncan backed up his win at the RSM last season with a missed cut two weeks back. He’s an absurd price here and you simply have to have some of it.

BACK — Duncan for the win for 0.1 units at $160+.

We backed up our pair of twos with one of our other favourite ways to lose, as Bezuidenhout picked up the W the week after we backed him. We feel like we’re right on the cusp of a big win at the moment so hang in there!

The Euro wraps its African Swing this week, but instead, we’ll be focusing on the warmup act to the season-ending World Tour Championship in Dubai. The Golf in Dubai Championship is a new addition to the calendar and takes place next door to next week’s event at the Fire course of the Jumeirah Golf Estates in, you guessed it, Dubai.

While the prize pool is just a fraction of what is up for grabs in 7 days, there’s still a lot of impetus for players around the cutoff line for entry to the big show. Add to the mix, OWGR positions that determine Major qualifications and there should be enough to keep players focused.

The course is a Greg Norman design and plays as a par-72 over 7.480 yards. It’s your typical desert track – long, undulating and exposed to wind. Off the tee, play is likely to be the big differentiator with some scrambling thrown in given the very well-bunkered greens.

The wind is the course’s main defence and the forecast is for quite calm conditions, so we expect a pretty easy week for scoring.

Over the Odds

Thomas Pieters

A nice little overlay is available on the market and model favourite. Fits the course well too.

BACK — Pieters for the win for 0.5 units at $19.50+.

Aaron Rai

Another big hitter off the tee there’s a great price on offers for the Englishman this week.

BACK — Rai for the win for 0.3 units at $38+.



Current Results

Total Units Staked: 145.40

Total Units Returned: 157.88

ROI: 8.58%

Biggest Winners

2019 Andalucia Masters — Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $140

2020 Sanderson Farms Championship — Sergio Garcia at $65

2020 Genesis Invitational — Adam Scott at $38

2020 RBC Heritage — Webb Simpson at $30

2020 Memorial Tournament — Jon Rahm at $25

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