Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

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Data Scientists

Betfair’s Golf Betting Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and European tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s probability for a particular course. It knows the strengths of each player, pulling data from PGA Tour Stats, and what courses they suit. As well as recent form and a variety of other metrics.

You get golf betting tips, and complementing copy, each week on the Betfair Hub. Plus you can see the model outputs for every player. Compare those with the odds on the Betfair Exchange and you’ll identify value betting opportunities. Both to Lay and to Back.

US OpenOpen de Portugal

We said it was a week for the long shots and few were longer than Stewart Cink, who took advantage of one of the weakest fields we will see all season to capture his first victory since 2009. He will have the honour of leading the FedEx Cup points race for exactly the next 5 days as he won’t be lining up for the 120th edition of the US Open.

A unique instalment of this event, this year will see numerous changes from tradition, with the shorter days meaning a truncated 144-man field will be tackling The West Course at Winged Foot Golf Club. The smaller field means the cutline will be set and 60 and ties, which is more or less in line with the normal 65.

This is the 6th time the course has hosted this event, with Geoff Ogilvy winning back in 2006 with a score of 5-over. Given the course’s history, this score doesn’t look like an anomaly and we can expect a below par final score to probably be good enough for a win this week. Playing as a par-70, the course stretches 7,477 yards, with four huge par 4s and three 210-yard plus par 3s contributing much of that length.

Accuracy off the tee will be paramount, with rough set at three to four inches for even the slightest fairway miss and rising to five or more inches in the next cut. Quite simply – if you’re not on the short grass or the first cut, you’re probably dropping a shot. Green sizes have been increased from an absolutely puny 5,100-foot average back to something a lot closer to the Tour average. While they will be larger, they’ll still be lightning-fast and heavily sloped.

We don’t have any Shotlink-era data to give us a course fit edge this week, so we’ll be relying on a qualitative approach targeting accurate drivers and world class scramblers. One thing to note in this ultra-difficult tournament is that it introduces more randomness into the results. A shot a foot the wrong direction can result in a swing of a couple of shots which means the standard deviation of scores becomes much wider than usual.

Not a huge amount of value this week and as much as we’d love to be holding a DJ ticket, we can’t justify his price. We have spotted a good play on an elite and the increase in randomness does mean we’ve dug up some great plays further down the board.

Over the Odds

Justin Thomas

Not a big overlay but we’ll take what we’ll take it when we can get it on quality like JT. He actually equalled DJ in the Tour Championship so comes in on the back of some very strong form

BACK — JT for the win for 0.5 units at $15+.

Patrick Reed

Reed is a tough one to categorise he bobs up for a big win often enough to get into the conversation with the top tier but just isn’t consistent enough. We’re not a fan of his driving accuracy but it’s tough to ignore the big overlay on offer.

BACK — Reed for the win for 0.2 units at $42+.

Corey Conners

An excellent driver of the ball, we’ll have to hope Conners can avoid the bunkers as his sand play is a big hole in his game. The monster overlay on offer makes it worth overlooking his imperfect course fit.

BACK — Conners for the win for 0.1 units at $290+.

Our picks weren’t awful last week but as has been the trend lately, they were never really in contention. With the already thin talent on the Euro further watered down by the Major taking place across the pond we’ve got a fairly limp lineup tackling this week’s Open de Portugal.

After long being a fixture on the Euro, the Open de Portugal was put on hiatus in 2010 due to financial difficulties but returned to the rotation in 2017, albeit in Challenge Tour guise. It snatches a co-sanction this season and offers the winner a 2-year Euro exemption.

The event moves to a new home this year, with the Seve Ballesteros designed Royal Obidos Spa & Golf Resort taking over from Morgado Country Club. The seaside layout plays as a par-72 across 7.300 yards and features five par-5s. Despite the location, there are no holes along the water although ocean breezes can provide some defence along with traditional water hazards.

Fairways are wide and rough shouldn’t be too nasty. The putting surfaces are flat but steep run-offs mean a scrambling game could be required if your wedges are out.

Winds are moderate all week but nothing that should cause too much trouble. Rain over the week should make keeping it on the greens a little easier as well.

The market struggles to price the Euro at the best of times and this week they’ve piled on the only “name” player in the field, last week’s runaway winner George Coetzee. Even given the weak competition, his price is miles too short and there are much better bets to be had elsewhere.

Over the Odds

Scott Vincent

Played a strong game last week on his way to a T8 and has scattered some good results over the season. Really like the look of the youngster in a weak lineup and we’re sure he’ll like his chances too.

BACK — Vincent for the win for 0.2 units at $30.

Jens Fahrbing

In a week with this little quality we’ll back a big overlay on anyone who’s picked up a club, so the Swede makes the grade here!

BACK — Jens for the win for 0.1 units at $70+.

Damien Perrier

Capable of a great round but also an absolute stinker, we’ll have a flyer on the streaky Frenchman at very long odds.

BACK — Perrier for the win for 0.1 units at $150+.



Current Results

Total Units Staked: 126.90

Total Units Returned: 147.30

ROI: 16.08%

Biggest Winners

2019 Andalucia Masters – Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $140

2020 Genesis Invitational – Adam Scott at $38

2020 RBC Heritage – Webb Simpson at $30

2020 Memorial Tournament – Jon Rahm at $25

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