Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

Betfair’s Golf Betting Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and European tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s probability for a particular course. It knows the strengths of each player, pulling data from PGA Tour Stats, and what courses they suit. As well as recent form and a variety of other metrics.

You get golf betting tips, and complementing copy, each week on the Betfair Hub. Plus you can see the model outputs for every player. Compare those with the odds on the Betfair Exchange and you’ll identify value betting opportunities. Both to Lay and to Back.

That might just be the worst set of tips we’ve ever posted. JT was absolutely putrid and the Scientist wasn’t much better. Even a T5 from Rahm wasn’t much solace as he was never even close to challenging for the W. We’ll shake it off as one of those weeks, though we will have to consider what to do with JT who is going to keep popping up as value given the model’s long-term view.

Our thoughts are that we will keep the faith, however, if you believe he’s mentally not there we wouldn’t fault you for a bit of a qualitative over-ride – after last week’s effort, there is certainly enough evidence!

The only comfort we took from the Genesis was that we didn’t have to tear up another Tony Finau ticket, as he blew yet another golden opportunity to break his drought. It’s getting comical at this stage.

Anyway, this week brings us the first WGC event for 2021 with the usual venue in Mexico unfortunately forced to cancel thanks to COVID.  The Concession Golf Club in Bradenton, Florida has kindly offered their services to fill the void – an interesting decision given Florida has roughly the same amount of COVID as all of Mexico.

Rather than get bogged down in international pandemic response policy, let’s take a look at the course. The Nicklaus/Jacklin design measures 7,474 yards and is played as a par-72. We have very little in the way of course history and nothing with Shotlink data, so this will be a pure skills week with a little bit of qualitative course fit sprinkled over the top.

It’s a very Floridian course, which means there is water and sand everywhere. We’ll be looking at guys known for straight hitting off the tee and a strong approach game and/or scrambling. The pros haven’t spent much time on these greens but the locals believe it’s going to be very tough to shoot a good score here and we’re inclined to agree with them.

Nothing at all in the weather forecast to consider as it looks like perfect golfing conditions all week. Pretty boring set of tips this week as some of our favourites have again popped up at great odds.

Over the Odds

Justin Thomas

As mentioned above, we wouldn’t blame you at all for skipping this one but we’re going to keep backing his underlying quality.

BACK — JT for the win for 0.4 units at $23+.

Jon Rahm

Due to some model intricacies, Rahm actually overtook DJ in our raw rankings and with no course fit that would usually push DJ over the top, he comes in as our favourite this week.

BACK — Rahm for the win for 0.7 units at $11.50+.

Scottie Scheffler

This guy has to snag a win at some stage, he’s just too good not to.

BACK — Scottie for the win for 0.2 units at $50+

Hideki Matsuyama

Silly price for a player of his calibre. Should trade much lower after a solid round or two.

BACK — Hideki for the win for 0.1 units at $70+.

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 158.40

Total Units Returned: 182.41

ROI: 15.16%

Biggest Winners

2019 Andalucia Masters — Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $140

2021 Sony Open — Kevin Na at $70

2020 Sanderson Farms Championship — Sergio Garcia at $65

2020 Genesis Invitational — Adam Scott at $38

2020 RBC Heritage — Webb Simpson at $30

2020 Memorial Tournament — Jon Rahm at $25

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