Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

Betfair’s Golf Betting Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and European tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s probability for a particular course. It knows the strengths of each player, pulling data from PGA Tour Stats, and what courses they suit. As well as recent form and a variety of other metrics.

You get golf betting tips, and complementing copy, each week on the Betfair Hub. Plus you can see the model outputs for every player. Compare those with the odds on the Betfair Exchange and you’ll identify value betting opportunities. Both to Lay and to Back.


Last Week’s Recap

It turned into an absolute shootout last week, at times looking like the winner would get to a slightly embarrassing-for-organisers score of 30-under. Rickie Fowler was in the box seat for a drought-breaking victory but could only muster a one under par final round in what must be described as a choke (it was one of the worst rounds of the final day). Instead it was a dominant Rory McIlroy who tore the par-5s apart as he held off a fast-finishing Collin Morikawa. After a down 2021 season by his lofty standards, he’ll be happy to kick off the 2022 campaign with a W.

This Week’s Course

While the Tour missed out on a trip to Korea last week, there’s no pandemic related re-fixturing this week as a reduced field heads to Japan for the ZOZO Championship. The week-long trip to Asia has been a tough sell to the pros and we see a fairly weak 78-man field line up to tackle four rounds at the Narashino Country Club.

The par-70 track measures just 7,041 yards and features narrow, tree-lined fairways and a number of doglegs to be negotiated on the way to the greens. The greens themselves are quite slopey, so players will need good speed control if they end up on the high side of the pins.

Keys to Success

We’ve only seen this course once back in 2019 when it was heavily impacted by typhoon driven precipitation. Given we won’t see anywhere near the same amount of moisture this time around, we’re not going to be inputting any of the data from that event into our course fit modelling.

 


Betting Strategy

Of the big guns, only Schauffele, Morikawa and Hideki have made the trip over. Matsuyama should be no surprise while Morikawa and Schauffele both share ties to Japan so it makes sense they’ve also made the trip. The two Americans have been installed as joint, single-digit favourites, but we think they’re both a little on the short side. Not a lot of value up the top of the board so we’re going to have a ping at some longer odds.

Cameron Tringale

We’ve been seeing Tringale’s name a fair bit on these pages of late and that’s because he has elevated his game significantly over the 2021 season, having shaken off whatever was ailing him over 2018. He’s still seeking his first solo Tour win and we think this could be the week.

BACK — Tringale for the win for 0.2 units at $48+

Brendon Todd

The short-hitter should love this tight track as he won’t be giving away his usual disadvantage to the big boys.

BACK — Todd for the win for 0.1 units at $150+

Andrew Putnam

While he hasn’t quote “recaptured his form” from 2019, he’s definitely put a horror 2020 behind him. We’ll have a go at long odds here.

BACK — Putnam for the win for 0.1 units at $180+

Last Week’s Recap

The big story was Jon Rahm’s absolutely appalling performance in a tournament he fancied himself in. Statistically speaking it was his worst showing since a missed cut back in 2018. After his ridiculous 2021 season it’s easy to forgive the big man a couple of stinkers, but last week marks his second missed cut in three tournaments. Hopefully it’s just a blip as Rahm playing well is simply good for the game.

Laurie Canter was poised to finally break through for his first Euro victory however over the course of the final day he looked like a man who still has some mental issues to overcome beforehand. He left the door wide open and it was the cool head of our main tip Fitzpatrick, who showed how it’s done down the stretch, leaving the field in his dust and breaking a bit of a drought for us in the process.

This Week’s Course

The Euro continues its Spanish adventures, taking a leisurely cruise across the Balearic to the tiny island of Mallorca. The Golf Santa Ponsa I course will welcome pros for the seventh time since opening in 1977. Locals have enjoyed a huge amount of success here, with Seve Ballesteros winning twice and Miguel Ángel Jiménez hoisting the trophy back in 1998.

The course is played as a par-72 across a pedestrian 7,156 yards. We haven’t had a look at the track for 10 years, but historically it has been pretty difficult to navigate, with wind being the biggest obstacle to scoring. It would appear changes have been made to make the course more tourist friendly, with fairways widened to become the “ideal place to enjoy ripping your drives” (we didn’t make that up, it’s a direct quote from the course website).

 


Betting Strategy

A decidedly poor field has made the trip this week, with the perennially overrated Thomas Pieters installed as an underpriced favourite. It’s a strangely dry week for value so we’ll only be having a few small plays.

Andrew Johnston

We’ve got Johnston basically neck and neck with Canter and Pieters as favourite here and he seems to fit the mould as a bloke who loves ripping a few drives.

BACK — Johnston for the win for 0.3 units at $27+

Sean Crocker

As expected, we’re sticking with Crocker after including him in our bets last week.

BACK — Crocker for the win for 0.2 units at $36+

Jacques Kruyswijk

The rangy South African has been in a bit of a slump of late, but with so little value about the overlay he will have to do.

BACK — Kruyswijk for the win for 0.3 units at $65+





Current Results

Total Units Staked: 199.30

Total Units Returned: 220.14

ROI: 10.46%


Biggest Winners

2021 ISPS Handa Word Invitational — Daniel Gavins at $140

2019 Andalucia Masters — Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $140

2021 Sony Open — Kevin Na at $70

2020 Sanderson Farms Championship — Sergio Garcia at $65

2020 Genesis Invitational — Adam Scott at $38

2020 RBC Heritage — Webb Simpson at $30

2020 Memorial Tournament — Jon Rahm at $25


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