EXPERT RACING TIPS: PINJARRA

PINJARRA PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAY JUNE 21ST 2025

Betting Strategy

There would be a few trainers out there that wished they had one in this, in what has to be one of the weaker $80k races I’ve seen on a Saturday. It’s very hard to make a case that anything can turn the tables on Playin’it Sweet from their previous meeting. She sat second half and walked in against a few smart ones. Only Bannered progresses from that lot here and it would take the conditions of the day or her training off to see that result flipped. While I’ve marked her $1.50, I’m wary about taking the $1.80 in these conditions and might save my one shortie go for Race 3. Piling into numerous shorties in the slop usually ends in tears. Faradio could end up the best horse in this, but I am always wary about any horse of a notable setback and there is no real obvious map for him either. Most of these will struggle to win a maiden til their dirt careers kick off.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 4. Cobbanco (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.50)

Cobbanco has been flat for a few preps now (last win April 2023), but he looks to have returned a very happy horse this time in. There was surprisingly good support first up over the unsuitable 1000m where he savaged the line, before he drew awkwardly at his most recent and was never in the race. I felt his performance had more merit than Money Trees (half the current quote), 1400 is his pet trip and he finally draws an alley to land those few pairs closer (in an easier race). Always wary when they’ve had a dry spell, but he’s dropped from a 74 to 63 rater (5.5kg’s) and looks to be near his best. Have to have something on @ $5+. Happy to make it a two-horse play with something smaller on Leniency. Thought his second up run was full of merit when not far from subsequent winners (in far better races) Wubin Gold and Chollima. Wrong setup for him at his most recent at Northam when he was blocked on the outside fence (yep) and forced to come back under them. He was the run of the race. Has carried weight in the past and at around double figures gets me. Money Trees will map a lot closer here and Fortune’s Luck will appreciate the wet deck and addition of W. Pike.

BACK: 1. Leniency (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $5.80)

Happy to make it a two-horse play with something smaller on Leniency. Thought his second up run was full of merit when not far from subsequent winners (in far better races) Wubin Gold and Chollima. Wrong setup for him at his most recent at Northam when he was blocked on the outside fence (yep) and forced to come back under them. He was the run of the race. Has carried weight in the past and at around double figures gets me.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 4. First Encounter (WIN) for 5 units (Rated at $1.47)

First Encounter was a really difficult watch 7 days ago ($3.20 to $1.95) when everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. He was snagged early (in a race devoid of obvious tempo), he let one in mid-race who ended up stopping on him and was simply in a zip-fastener until it was too late. We go again. Unfortunately, we don’t get the same opening quote, but you really couldn’t ask for a better setup. He looks to be racing like a true stayer, he’s off the 7 days and he handles the sting out of the ground. With the likely leader (Arnray) going around @ $500/1, he can probably be ridden cold and have bad luck and still reel them in. I expect him to be a Perth Cup horse and as such have marked him very short. Dennis Choux has been a revelation for Carbery and Harrison. He was plain and simply just better than Forever Boy at their most recent clash and has since proven he can handle the trip. Surprised he’s double the price. Not a big even money player, but anything near it will do me for First Encounter.

Betting Strategy

This market looks bang on to me. I felt there was minimal between the first up runs of Miss Skyhigh and Noteworthy in what is a clearly starting point for this race. With the conditions of the day definitely suiting Noteworthy I did think I’d end up in her corner more strongly (marked $4.8), but I can’t shake the fact she simply isn’t stepping at the moment. I don’t know if she’s good enough to be giving Miss Skyhigh ($2.95) a head start. While on paper the draw may look sticky for Miss S, she does have the tactical speed which a lot of these lack. I suspect there is a gaping hole for her in 4th or 6th one off the fence. From there, she’s very hard to bet against. Simply was a far better run fresh than it reads, when he lost his run mid-straight and it was always going to be hard for a staying type to pick up and sprint from there. Lucy a big booking. Classic Rogue is another who is going far better than paper form suggests. The rise in grade means he, for once, doesn’t have the grandstand on his back and none of these are world beaters. Show me a strong fence by this stage of the day and I may be tempted by a price which I presume always drifts. I doubt Multinational and Without Reg will run out a strong mile.

Betting Strategy

A race full of contrasting form lines and no doubt contrasting opinions. We’ll start with the horse who’s learnt how to win, in Lucky I Am. While he hasn’t claimed any huge scalps in his hat-trick of victories, it’s been more the manner he’s either dominated or fought back when challenged. He has to be really hard to run down again. True Apostle was a super trial. He’s had a reasonably long stint off the scene, but it was hard to miss the authority in which he won his trial, in reasonable time. The query on him is the 1200 fresh from a sticky gate – do they push forward to the breeze or ride him more conservatively? Worth noting that both of his wins he’s drawn low and got every favour in running. Allentown rounds out my major 3 players after an eye catching third down the wrong side of the Pinjarra chute. The 3 he cleared out with are all proper Saturday grade horses and I suspect the 1000 was always going to be short for him anyway. Rises to 1200, gets the senior, it’s just a shame he’ll likely be a long way off a strong leader. Soft draw and I probably mark him $2.80 compared to the $5.50 I’ve landed on. Skull Bone And Pig is the X factor runner. Scratched as a $1.20 favourite in a maiden a week or so ago (crook), the two factors to consider are a) is he fully recovered/fit enough and b) exactly how good is he? My feeling is he has the highest ceiling of this lot, though doubts linger over a horse who’s yet to win a race and been off the scene for a while. At ~$4 he can win without mine.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 4. Want A Winner (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.75)

This is as good a graduation as you’ll see. Five exciting 3 year olds, a revitalised Lord Shiva and… Kraken Time. Happy to focus on two of those three year olds and the one who has drawn well (outside best down the straight chute) in particular, in Want A Winner. I think this Yes Yes Yes colt is a proper ‘orse. With clear soundness issues (nearly a year between his two runs/wins), he’s shown a very similar style of tenacity in all trials and races that when he is asked for an effort he really does respond and lengthen. I suspect he’ll be far better over the 1200, though in a race where Haida Gwaii, Lord Shiva and Earth God will all be ridden for speed, having that spot tucked in the best lane right behind him should allow him to have the final pop at them. Chris Parnham lifts them better than most and I think this represents his best chance of a Saturday winner post injury, on the card. I’ll be chopping out on Promising. Should be 2 from 2 down the straight (moral beaten at first go v Supernatural), which is a big tick, his recent trial (also down a chute, albeit only 400m) couldn’t have been any softer. Draw is awkward, but there have been a few winners down the less favourable side of the chute recently. Lord Shiva hasn’t beaten much, but it’s more been the manner of those victories. Acid test here with the sharp rise in grade and pressure he’s likely to cop.

BACK: 11. Promising (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $4.85)

I’ll be chopping out on Promising. Should be 2 from 2 down the straight (moral beaten at first go v Supernatural), which is a big tick, his recent trial (also down a chute, albeit only 400m) couldn’t have been any softer. Draw is awkward, but there have been a few winners down the less favourable side of the chute recently. Lord Shiva hasn’t beaten much, but it’s more been the manner of those victories. Acid test here with the sharp rise in grade and pressure he’s likely to cop.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 3. Hemlock Stone (WIN) for 5 units (Rated at $2.40)

It’s always dangerous when you think you’re going to be on one several weeks in advance, but this setup (and price) for Hemlock Stone has only further enhanced my confidence for this investment. As mentioned, a fortnight ago, this bloke has simply come back a proper WFA horse and one who will only improve as the distances increase. The debate on ‘would he have won the Hyperion’ is a competitive one (can see both arguments), but very simply I reckon he was going lengths better (and was lengths in front) of Triple Missile who ran third only beaten 1.4L. So, I’m going to land on, yes he would have won with the right run. The wet track is clearly in his favour, the rise to 2000 and being reunited with CJP is a huge positive. Devils advocate tells me the lack of speed in this may make it interesting for a horse who can fight a bit, but he simply seems a lot more mature this prep. I’ve unashamedly marked him favourite (2.4 v Western Empire 3.3). I’m taking nothing away from Western Empire’s win in the Hyperion. Off a 6 week break post a setback, he sat deep the trip on a hot tempo and was still too strong late. He is more than capable of winning, he’s a champion racehorse (and WATC Derby winner @ 2400) but at the current quotes (1.8 WE v 5.5 HS) this is a simple no-brainer bet for me. In a race devoid of speed, it’ll be fascinating to see how both hoops go about this tactically. Ginger Baker could almost end up in front, while Admiration Express should be hitting peak fitness now. My concern with her is that she traditionally is a far better horse chasing a strong tempo and I just don’t see how she gets that here? It’s all about the Stone.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 3. Kelvinater (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $6.20)

Tend to love a capacity field to round out the day, but this looks about as hard as it gets. At the time of writing Bohemian Diamond and Six Shooter are your two market elects and I’m fairly happy taking the pair on. Yes, Bohemian Diamond didn’t have much luck at her most recent and yes she maps really well here, but I still thought she was really disappointing. As a ~$4 fav in a big field, I couldn’t consider her. Six Shooter won his most recent, but I reckon it’s as bad a win as I’ve seen. Weak 60+, lands in the breeze fairly softly and falls in against a bunch of battlers. This is significantly harder and the map looks less favourable. Neither make my quadrella. The three who I’ve marked between $5.50 and $6.50 are Earthstorm, Regal Statue and Kelvinater. Earthstorm has the 3yo form coming into this and I do think that Pond Master form should stack up pretty well here. I’m just not convinced he’s all that good (though I have marked him favourite). Will need a special from CP from the sticky draw. Regal Statue was really disappointing a fortnight ago. Got a 10 from CJP, she simply didn’t let down all that strongly. This is probably easier and she maps brilliantly, but does she want 1400? Talking myself out of her. Kelvinater is the longest of the three at the current prices and the one I’ll probably have something small on. He’s beaten nothing at his two most recent wins, but they were dominant, and he loves these conditions. Always like Jarrad Noske on a freewheeling leader and in a race you’re not sure if anything is going to run the final split required to win, a leader can be the default play. Small bet. Wouldn’t surprise me if a Sunbronzed (better at 1400), Falcon Trader (without the setback would mark him ~$10), Mama Tembu (will be last, but is going better than paper form suggests) or Arcadia Knight (I think we are one run short with him) bob up.

BACK: 3. Kelvinater (PLACE) for 1 unit

Tend to love a capacity field to round out the day, but this looks about as hard as it gets. At the time of writing Bohemian Diamond and Six Shooter are your two market elects and I’m fairly happy taking the pair on. Yes, Bohemian Diamond didn’t have much luck at her most recent and yes she maps really well here, but I still thought she was really disappointing. As a ~$4 fav in a big field, I couldn’t consider her. Six Shooter won his most recent, but I reckon it’s as bad a win as I’ve seen. Weak 60+, lands in the breeze fairly softly and falls in against a bunch of battlers. This is significantly harder and the map looks less favourable. Neither make my quadrella. The three who I’ve marked between $5.50 and $6.50 are Earthstorm, Regal Statue and Kelvinater. Earthstorm has the 3yo form coming into this and I do think that Pond Master form should stack up pretty well here. I’m just not convinced he’s all that good (though I have marked him favourite). Will need a special from CP from the sticky draw. Regal Statue was really disappointing a fortnight ago. Got a 10 from CJP, she simply didn’t let down all that strongly. This is probably easier and she maps brilliantly, but does she want 1400? Talking myself out of her. Kelvinater is the longest of the three at the current prices and the one I’ll probably have something small on. He’s beaten nothing at his two most recent wins, but they were dominant, and he loves these conditions. Always like Jarrad Noske on a freewheeling leader and in a race you’re not sure if anything is going to run the final split required to win, a leader can be the default play. Small bet. Wouldn’t surprise me if a Sunbronzed (better at 1400), Falcon Trader (without the setback would mark him ~$10), Mama Tembu (will be last, but is going better than paper form suggests) or Arcadia Knight (I think we are one run short with him) bob up.