Your Weekly A-League Predictions

Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory

Sunday 12th May, 7:00pm

Match Overview

Sydney had the weekend off last weekend before travelling to Korea where they played virtually their first 11 when bowing out of the ACL. They didn’t appear to pick up any injuries so should have a fully fit squad to choose from. Having had 10 days off prior to that match and arriving back to Australia on Wednesday I can’t see any impact for the match schedule for 7pm Sunday night.

Victory were under pressure for large parts of the match against Wellington last week before their stars produced a few moments of brilliance to win 3-1. They too had ACL commitments on Wednesday night but fielded a team with likely just 2 or 3 players who will back up on Sunday.

Victory one the corresponding match last year 3-2 thanks to a 117^th minute winner from Terry Antonis, a game noted by the fact that Victory players scored all 5 goals with a pair of own goals accounting for Sydney’s pair.

Statistics Comment

Sydney hold the better season stats with Victor relying on their above average conversion and concession rates to carry them through. Head to head they have now drawn 18 of 49 meetings (36.7%) in A-League history.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sydney in 90 mins at 2.3 or less for a risk of 2 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Perth Glory v Adelaide United

Friday 10th May, 8:30pm

Match Overview

Perth celebrated the Premiers plate in the final round with an easy 5-0 win over an understrength Wellington Phoenix. This is their first home final since the 2011/12 season in front of what is sure to be a packed house. They have no new injury worries and would have enjoyed the weekend off last week.

Adelaide finally broke the deadlock with City last week in the 119^th minute of a very dour match. Adelaide did come out and start well but were very lucky not to lose after enduring a torrid 2^nd half against City. They have plenty of quality but are up against the clear best team in the league this season.

Statistics Comment

Once again Adelaide rued the lack of a deadly striker last week in their first 30 minutes of dominance and we see that still with the lack of shorts on target despite a high ranked total shots count and the lack of conversion of those shots on target. They will look to build their match on defence.

Perth seemingly have both ends of the pitch covered their shots on target for per match is equal 2nd over the last 4 seasons and their shots on target against is 2nd only to the 2017/18 Sydney FC team. They look as dominant as their stats suggest.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth to win at -1 on the Asian Handicap markets at 1.9+ for 3 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Melbourne Victory v Wellington

Match Overview

Victory haven’t been at their best over the last 3 rounds since their defeat to Sydney pushed them to an almost certain 3^rd position. A completely understandable situation that they will be looking to rectify. Melbourne have never lost a home finals match in 90 mins, a record of W10 D2 L0, of the 2 draws they lost a GF on penalties to Sydney in the 09/10 season. They miss James Troisi who is a bit loss.

Wellington put out a makeshift side last week losing 0-5 to Perth to fall from 5^th to 6^th. It was probably an understandable decision not to make all of their squad travel to Perth and back before a semi final again in Aus. It is a big achievement to have reached this stage. They have no fresh injury worries so enter this match with their first 11 available.

Statistics Comment

Not displayed above the Victory have lost just 3 home matches this season to Newcastle and Perth twice. Wellington have managed just 3 wins away at Central Coast, Western Sydney and Sydney.
They have also won just 3 of 20 against Victory in Melbourne lifetime. Against that they have managed 2 draws at Aami park this season and also drew with them in Wellington.
Both defences are porous with good concession rates saving them in the most part.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.6+ for 2 units

 BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 2.2+ for 1 unit

Adelaide v Melbourne City

Saturday 4th May, 7:50pm

Match Overview

Adelaide have been inconsistent all season but have a put together a nice end of season winning 4 of a 5-match undefeated run, 2 of those wins were against the Mariners and Roar but they still won.

City moved from 6^th to 5^th on goal difference last weekend thanks to their 5-0 win over Central Coast and Wellingtons 0-5 loss to Perth, thus avoiding a Melbourne Derby this weekend. They lost in Wellington 2 matches ago and played a 0-0 draw at home to Adelaide 3 rounds ago.

Both teams are built on solidity at the back and are supported by a pair of top goalkeepers and there is nothing between these teams.

Statistics Comment

Adelaide suffer from not turning total shots into shots on target and in turn with a poor (ranked 10^th) conversion rate when they do.

City are very mean in defence with very strong numbers.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 1.6+ for 2 units

 BACK  – City draw no bet at 1.9+ for 1 unit

City v Central Coast

Friday 26 April, 7:50pm

Match Overview

City have hedged their bets by omitting Ritchie De Laet and Harrison Delbridge from their squad signalling their possible acceptance of a 6^th place finish and Melbourne Derby for their semi-final after losing to 5^th place Wellington last week. If they want to avoid the derby they need to win, hope Wellington lose and turn around a 6-goal difference.

Central Coast were very good last week in beating Adelaide at home and have certainly turned their season form around. Kye Rowles is a big loss as he deservedly serves a 3-match suspension for a horror tackle last week.

Statistics Comment

The Mariners have struggled all season but have won 2 of their last 5 since the arrival of their new coach. The stats over those games don’t suggest any great improvement except that or a different attitude. City rest on their defence as they rank 8^th for goals scored and shots on target.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 1.8+ for 2 units

Newcastle v Sydney

Saturday 27 April, 5:35pm

Match Overview

Newcastle went to Brisbane and won 6-1, a result tempered by the fact that Brisbane have conceded another 5 to Adelaide last night. They have nothing but pride to play for but have finished the season reasonably well beating Western Sydney and being competitive to Perth before last week.

Sydney confirmed 2^nd place beating Perth last week and will no doubt rest many of their stars after the trip to China midweek and a further ACL game in Korea before their preliminary final against Perth they will no doubt rest many of their first 11 here.

Statistics Comment

Newcastle have performed reasonably well this season despite missing out on the top 6. They have beaten Western Sydney and Brisbane in the last 3 weeks. They will be looking to finish their season with a win after going W4 D4 L4 this season.

Sydney are not the machine they of the last couple of seasons but have still done well enough to finish the regular season in 2^nd. They have won 6 of 12 away matches but all stats are subject to the fact that I expect a very much reserve team to present for this match.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle at 2.1+ for 2 units

Perth v Wellington

Sunday 28 April, 7:00pm

Match Overview

Perth secured the premiers plate two week ago and were down on their form last week when losing 0-1 at Sydney and failing to register a single shot on target. With a weeks break post this match there is no reason not to play their first 11 as resting anyone will mean 3 weeks between matches which is not ideal.

Wellington may have nothing to play for by kick off except to avoid a heavy defeat and lose 5^th place. I expect they will much prefer to be playing in Adelaide next week rather then at Victory.

Statistics Comment

Clearly the best team in the league their creation of quality chances is the result of a very solid team across the park. Wellington suffer defensively but certainly make games interesting for themselves giving up plenty of chances and ranked lowly across most defensive measurements.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth -1 in the Asian Handicap markets at 1.9+ for 2 units

Brisbane v Newcastle

Saturday 20th April, 5.35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Brisbane beat a disillusioned Wellington last week 2-1 thanks to a pair of nice goals to Eric Bautheac who was subsequently sent off and suspended for this match. They once again played with a youthful team that spent a large part of the game dominating their more experienced rivals.
Captain Matt McKay today announced his retirement at the end of the season, so the team will be looking to send him out on a couple of good home results to finish the season and his career.

Newcastle were ok away to Perth losing 0-1 after a first half goal was ruled out by the VAR. They soaked up a lot of pressure but looked good on the counter. That result finished their season and so it is questionable how they will aim up here. I’d expect a few back up players to get the call up and they have noticeably omitted Ronnie Vargas from their team.

Brisbane look very dangerous at a big price.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The Jets have the edge in the statistics particularly in defence. But at the end of the season like this the stats are at times a secondary consideration to the psyche of the competing teams.
6 of 11 Brisbane home games have seen over 3.5 goals and I expect an open match.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 1.9+ for 1.5 units

 BACK – Brisbane to Win at at 3.5+ for 3 units

Central Coast v WSW

Saturday 20th April, 7.50pm AEDT

Match Overview

The commitment of the Central Coast players has certainly improved and the results, bar against Perth when they were completely outclassed have been ok exemplified by the 1-2 loss to the Victory in Melbourne last week when they had several chances of their own.

They welcome back Tom Hiariej and Aiden O’Neill this week and can be expected to be up for their last home match of the season.

The Wanderers as I have noted over the last 6 weeks or so have been performing quite well and continued that against Sydney in the Derby last week to pick up a point.

The biggest issue for the Wanderers here is that they have lost keeper Vedran Janjetovic to injury and so an already shaky defence must now be backed up by youth team keeper Jack Greenwood.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Western Sydney should have had a much better season when we consider their stats and recent performances. The Mariners have improved in the last 4 matches defensively but still struggled to create clear cut chances.

That said in those matches since Alen Stajcic took over they have played Perth, Adelaide and Victory all of whom spent most of the match on the front foot.
Again the stats can sometimes be of lesser consequence in these types of matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK Central Coast to Win at 3.50+ for 2 units

Melbourne City v Adelaide

Saturday 13th April, 5.35pm AEDT

Match Overview

City have been rocks or diamonds of late, thrashing Brisbane, awful against the Wanderers and imperious against Sydney in their last 3 matches. With their defence back to full strength they have that strong base back which is very difficult to break down.

Adelaide came rocketing out of the blocks last week to lead 2-0 inside 20 mins and 3-0 at HT v Wellington. They were largely comfortable in the 2^nd half despite being down to 10 men. They lose Apostolos Stamatelopoulos who scored a double last week to suspension which could be a big factor with very limited attacking options available to them.

Both have plenty to play for in the fight for 4^th positions and a home semi final.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Similarly matched teams with the defence of City incredibly strong even if their concession rate is on the poor side. Neither team have good conversion rates which lends itself to being an under and the two teams have the lowest over 2.5 count in the league.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 1.9+ for 1.5 units

 BACK – City to Win at at 2.1+ for 1.5 units

Perth v Newcastle

Sunday 14th April, 7.00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Perth proved the gap between first and last was cavernous last week with a comfortable 3-0 win at Central Coast. By this stage if Sydney have not won on Saturday night, which the market suggests is around a 45% chance, then a win here will guarantee Perth their first A-League Premiers Plate.

In reality with a 6-point advantage and a +13 goal difference variance even if Sydney have won a win for Perth seals the premiership. This is an important factor as they face Sydney on the road next week so a negative result here and their fine season is all of a sudden in jeopardy.

They lose Chris Ikonomidis for this match and are still without Alex Grant which are significant absentees, but they have great depth to overcome this.

Newcastle fans somehow cling to the faintest of Top 6 hopes after getting home 3-2 over Western Sydney last week. A result more to do with the ineptitude of the Wanderers defence and goalkeeper as the skill of the Jets. They need to win 3 from 3 and hope results go their way. The players may well have the feeling that the season is done, particularly if Perth can get an early lead.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Rightfully maintaining their position as the best team in the league there is little by way of statistics that Perth are vulnerable. At home they have led in 7 of 12 matches and 6 of their 8 home wins have been by home/home half/full double. Newcastle have found creating clear cut opportunities displayed by their low shots on target and conversion rates.

Betting Strategy

 BACK Perth – 1.25 in the Asian Handicap market at 1.85+ for 1.5 units

Brisbane v Wellington

Friday 12th April, 7.50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Brisbane have lost their last 4 and have recorded just 3 wins all season. They have a long list of absentees and must be counting the days till it is all over. On a positive they have unearthed some young talent that looks to paint a brighter picture if they can turn the club around.

Wellington were slow to get going last week against a fired-up Adelaide who took a 2-0 lead inside of 20 mins. Despite Adelaide having a man sent off just prior to half time they couldn’t turn their 2^nd half dominance in possession into goals. With that result their dream of a home final for finishing 4^th is under threat with just goal difference separating them and Adelaide with City a further 1 point back. I expect a big reaction from the Phoenix here.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

At this stage of the season the numbers bear out the difficulties the Roar have faced. Their home record since the start of last season is W7 D5 L13 which is not good enough. Wellington still concede too many chances, however it is a stat that has been righted somewhat in their last 6 matches with just 3.7 shots on target per match conceded in that time.

Betting Strategy

 BACK Wellington at 1.8+ for 1.5 units

BACK Perth to lead at half time at 1.7+ for 1.5 units

Newcastle v Western Sydney

Saturday 6th April, 5.35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Newcastle have disappointed in the last 2 rounds losing to the Mariners and Wellington just at a time they looked as if they were gaining some momentum to push for the finals. They are now all but out of contention though they will still be hoping against hope and welcome Ronald Vargas back as a big in for the team.
Western Sydney bounced back last week once their squad was all available again. City were particularly disappointing, but the Wanderers certainly were value for their win. Their inconsistent season means a win here would be just the second time this season they have won 2 in a row.
An interesting dynamic in this match given the fact the seasons are all but done. Newcastle are the fading from the team who went all the way to the Grand Final last season whilst Western Sydney have a keen blend of youngsters through their team that see this is another great opportunity.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Both teams create enough chances, although getting them on target and finishing is a completely different story.
On my pricing line that considers just the last 6 matches for each team I have this game as 50/50.

Betting Strategy

 BACK Western Sydney at 2.5+ for 2 units

Sydney v Victory

Saturday 6th April, 7.50pm AEDT

Match Overview

A real “6-pointer” in the race for the coveted top 2 and bonus that offers into the finals series playing on the famed SCG, so there should be a good atmosphere despite the oval shape of the ground. The only concern is the patchy nature of the field as witnessed in a wet NRL match on Thursday night.
Sydney bounced back from a very poor performance v City to comfortably account for the Roar in Brisbane. They miss Ben Warland from defence but that aside are at full strength.
Victory went to Perth and made the most of their limited chances to win 2-0, they naturally had to withstand plenty of Perth possession and chances but were relatively comfortable, particularly with Georg Niedermeier back leading their central defence. They have their squad fully fit and will have the luxury of fielding their first choice 11.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Not a lot between the teams on statistics, as you would expect given the late point of the season and teams fighting it out for 2nd position.
The worry for the Victory is that if I look at their last 6 matches in isolation they have tapered away and most of their stats are regressing rather than improving. Sydney on the other hand have been relatively steady performers, the odd poor match aside.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.7+ for 2 units

Central Coast v Perth

Sunday 7th April, 7.00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Central Coast have certainly improved under Alen Stajcic beating Newcastle and going down 0-1 to Adelaide, a match they were reasonably competitive in without possessing the necessary cutting edge to particularly trouble the Reds
Perth lost to the Victory 0-2 at home. They had a mountain of possession and opportunities, particularly through set pieces, including 16 corners, without producing many high-quality chances.
Both teams are near enough to full strength which for the Mariners is not good news with the Glory having arguably the strongest squad in the league

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The season statistics bear out the gulf between these teams. The Mariners were improved last week across all measures, bar the scoreboard, but this is a completely different proposition.
Perth have lead in 5 of 11 away matches at half time and despite a poor record in Gosford led 3-0 in Round 9 before winning 4-1.

Betting Strategy

 BACK Perth – 1.25 in the Asian Handicap market at 1.85+ for 1.5 units

BACK Perth to lead at half time at 1.7+ for 1.5 units

Western Sydney v Melbourne City

Saturday 30th March, 7.50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Western Sydney suffered more than most due to the loss of the Australian U/23 players in their last match eventually losing 3-1 at Wellington. They were in the match and but for a missed penalty in the 71^st minute may have pinched something late. They get their troops back this week and will be hoping to turn back to their better form of late.

City went to Leichhardt and played Sydney off the park winning 2-0. Hard to say what was more impressive, their ability to strangle Sydney out of the match or their new-found clinical ability in front of goal. Scott Jamieson aside they are at full strength and look as if they will have plenty to say in the finals series.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

City have one of the top ranked defences in the league and in the last 6 matches the absolute best with Total Shots conceded just 8.5 per match and 2.8 on target. Western Sydney are poor at Homebush losing 7 of 11 this season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 2.0+ for 1.5 units

 BACK – Melbourne City to win at 2.1+ for 1.5 units

Perth Glory v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 30th March, 10.00pm AEDT

Match Overview

This should be a cracking match with Perth arguably still improving in their football despite sitting 9 points clear in the race for the Premiers Plate. They eased to a 2-0 win over Adelaide last time out and aside from Alex Grant have their full squad available to them.

Victory likewise have their entire squad available for one of the first times this season and were comfortable 2-1 winners over Brisbane in their last match despite conceding a very poor goal against the run of play.

This is a big game with little between these teams at full strength.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Victory have spent a large part of the season with a makeshift defence hence their below average defensive stats. Attack wise they are similar, so the edge lies with Perth’s defence. Their pair of games this season have been quite open and both over 2.5 goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for 2 units

Central Coast v Adelaide United

Sunday 31st March, 5.00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Central Coast went to Newcastle and snuck away with a 3-2 win in the first match for new coach Alen Stajcic. They rode their luck and of course had to rely on keeper saving not one but 2 penalty kicks in injury time thanks to the re-take after encroachment. With a full 2 weeks of training and the return of 5 potential first 11 players they could surprise.

Adelaide were well beaten 0-2 at home to Perth and have now gone 5 matches without a win. They still hold down 6^th position but the momentum is heading the wrong way at the moment. They lose Ken Ilso who has tested positive to drugs but regain Nathan Blackwood who missed the last match on international duty.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The statistics read against Central coast but with a new coach and a potentially new vigour it is dangerous to put 100% weight in these figures.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Central Coast to win at 4.0+ for 2 units

Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 16th March, 7.50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Melbourne Victory fell 0-2 at home to Newcastle last week. They were without Ola Toivonen and Georg Niedermeier but welcome that pair back with long term absentee Captain Carl Valeri also back in the squad. With starting central defensive pair James Donachie suspended and Thomas Deng on international duty missing from their last starting 11 they will have to find someone to sit in alongside a potentially underdone Niedermeier. Perhaps mister fix it Leigh Broxham will step in.
Since their last league match they have lost their opening pair of Asian Champions League fixtures including a trip to Japan on Tuesday night.

Brisbane crashed to a 1-3 home loss to Western Sydney last weekend and have been inconsistent of late with wins over Sydney and Central Coast along with the loss last weekend and to Perth. They still miss a host of players but do regain Thomas Kristensen for this match.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The statistics don’t lie, Brisbane are very poor across the park. It could be argued that the high concession rate is unlucky but with Jamie Young ranked 4^th for saves it could have been worse. They simply allow too many high-quality chances. Away from home this season they have 1 win (v Central Coast) and 3 draws to go with their 8 losses.

Victory need Toivonen to fire them back to consistent ways having failed to win in their last 4. I expect they will with him back in the squad as he has managed 10 goals in 14 games.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Melbourne Victory -1.25 in the Asian Handicap market at 1.8+for a risk of 2 units (max risk of 3 units)

Wellington v Western Sydney

Sunday 17th March, 5.00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington won just their 2^nd game in 8 last week with the 8-2 demolition of Central Coast. They played well but it was literally a case of men v boys with the Mariners stripped of the majority of their first 11. They will need to have improved and perhaps that game has played them back into some form. They regain Alex Rufer but critically lose Sarpreet Singh for this match.

Western Sydney have won 3 of 4 and drawn with Perth since their season nadir 0-5 loss to Newcastle. Given the strong position they found themselves in for the 3 matches prior to that loss, they really should be staring down a top 6 birth. There is still a slim hope with 6^th 10 points in front and 24 points to play for, but they will need to continue their run. They lose Keanu Baccus but regain Alex Baumjohann, although stories of poor training sessions prior to his demotion last week are a little concerning.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Wellington are overshooting their statistical evidence based solely on the conversion and concession rates. The concession rate thanks largely to goal keeper Filip Kurto averaging a league high 4.1 saves per match.

Western Sydney really should be higher up the competition if we consider their attacking threat and they have shown with an average of 2.2 goals per match in their last 6 (ranked 2^nd in the league) that they are on the improve.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Western Sydney to win at 2.8+ for 2 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Sydney FC v Melbourne City

Sunday 17th March, 5.00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney were away in Japan midweek where they lost 0-1 and were under pressure the entire 90 mins. Their last league match was a comfortable 2-0 home win over Adelaide. They leave Josh Brillante out as he looks to be on the move to Korea. Hopefully this forces coach Corica to abandon is double no 6 formation in favour of a pair of 10’s with Alex Brosque back in the squad.

City led 2-0 against Perth last time out and were lucky to hold on to draw 2-2 in the end. They were down on troops in that match but welcome back Ritchie De Laet, Harrison Delbridge and Bart Schenkeveld to strengthen up their defence.

The weather and pitch quality could be a determining factor here. There is heavy rain predicted all weekend for the Leichhardt area and with an NRL match at the oval on Saturday night it could be cut up by kick off time at 7pm Sunday.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Very little separates this pair from a statistical point of view with the main variance being the number of goals scored. Of course, with City now boasting an out and out striker in Jamie Maclaren who has scored 4 goals in 4 matches this will likely change. Both like to keep it very tight defensively.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals 1.9+ for 2 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

 BACK – The Draw at 3.3+ for 1 unit

Central Coast v Wellington Phoenix

Saturday 9th March, 7.50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Central Coast lost 3-5 at home to Brisbane last time out and have managed just the 1 win all season at home to City. They lose Aiden O’Neill and Matt Simon to suspension joining Tommy Oar and Tom Hiariej as key outs. Further they have today stood down Andrew Hoole for disciplinary reasons. If the season wasn’t imploding before it seems to be now

Wellington have stubbed their toe winning just 1 of their last 7 putting their seemingly locked-in Top 6 spot in jeopardy. They haven’t been playing poorly by any means but need to start to consolidate their position with some wins. They miss Alex Rufer who has been one of their best this season but have strong depth in their squad.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Wellington were somewhat defying their lofty position based primarily on their conversion rates hovering around 38% all season but only 13% in their last 6.

Despite this they have still been compiling a decent number of chances and they have played the other top 6 teams and a resurgent Newcastle in their last 6. Mariners have been poor all season and are certainly not improving.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Wellington to win at $1.8+ for 2 units

Brisbane Roar v WSW

Friday 8th March, 7.50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Brisbane clicked into gear to put 5 past the Mariners in Gosford in their last match. They were classic goals on the most part but also conceded 3. I’m inclined to think that this performance, as good as it was, is not a reliable form indicator. No team news of note and with just a tiny chance of making the playoffs I expect they will be open to plenty of attack.

Western Sydney have won 2 of their last 3 and picked up a late point at home to Perth in their last match with the last kick of the game. Other than the humiliation of their 0-5 home loss to Newcastle they have been very competitive over the second 1/3 of the season. They get Captain Brendan Hamill back and Kwame Yeboah adds to their attacking depth off the bench. Again with little to play for I would expect attack to be the order of the day.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Western Sydney have been consistently good at creating chances without converting them.
Both teams allow far too many quality chances as noted by their concession rates. Plenty of goals ahead on these statistics.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Western Sydney at $2.2+ for a risk of 2 units

Melbourne Victory v Newcastle Jets

Sunday 2nd March, 7.50pm AEDT

Match Overview

After conceding a goal from the penalty and losing a man to a red card in just the 18^th minute Victory did well to scramble a point in the Derby last week. They were a bit lucky with City hitting the woodwork twice but spent a lot of the match looking reasonably comfortable defensively. They miss Georg Niedermeier to suspension and are still without Carl Valeri. Ola Toivonen played 45 minutes last week and will start up front in a much-needed lift to their attacking options.

Newcastle played failry in their 0-0 draw at home to Adelaide which was their 4^th match in 12 days. They have picked up 11 of a possible 18 points in their last 6 matches to have 6^th placed Wellington and 5^th placed City within sight. It’s a big ask to beat Victory in Melbourne particularly with Ronald Vargas still on the sideline.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The obvious variance between these teams is the goals scored on the back of disparate conversion rates. I suspect this is where the game will be won and lost.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Victory to win at 1.8+ for 3 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Melbourne City v Perth Glory

Sunday 3rd March, 5.00pm AEDT

Match Overview

City really should have won the Derby last week, giving up a 1-0 lead with an extra player and failing to turn their dominance in possession and territory into a win. To be fair Eugene Galekovic was at fault for the Victory goal, something we have seen very seldom in his 20-year professional career. They also hit the woodwork twice but really should have pressed their dominance more. They face the loss of Ritchie De Laet and Bart Schenkeveld to suspension in this match along with the continued absence of Harrison Delbridge meaning their solid defensive structure is decimated.

Perth looked to be cruising to another comfortable victory last week away to Western Sydney before a 95^th minute howler from keeper Liam Reddy handed a point to the Wanderers. They are at near full strength and I expect a response from them here. Certainly, the missing players for City put the result firmly in Perth’s control.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

City have lost just once at home this season while Perth are undefeated away. The teams have met twice so far with Perth winning 1-0 at home to City before a 0-0 draw in Melbourne. Interestingly City have yet to muster a shot on target in those 2 matches whilst Perth have managed just 6. Perhaps it will be a tight match but as noted above City are without their central defensive pair for the first time this season given Schenkeveld has played every minute and Delbridge missed just 2 matches. Add to that Ritchie De Laet who has missed just 1 match and they look in some trouble.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth to win at 1.8+ for 3 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Sydney v Adelaide United

Fri 1st March, 7.50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney did just enough to get past Wellington in their “away match” at Campbelltown last week thanks to an Adam Le Fondre penalty. The A-League top scorer with 14 goals in 20 matches is by far the most critical player to Sydney’s cause. They have quietly moved up to 2^nd spot on the ladder and in my opinion not played terribly well all season, though perhaps that is a harsh judgement when comparing where they were the last 2 seasons. Captain Alex Brosque misses due to suspension and with Daniel De Silva and Siem De Jong out they look a little bare up front.

Adelaide played out a tame goalless draw at Newcastle last week, maintaining their 4^th position on the ladder. They continue to dwell about the same position on the ladder with a strong structured team that needs to lift in their creativity and finishing to be a real threat.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Sydney bank on their defence and home record as their strength. At home this season they are W7 D1 L2 a consistent run even though they are no longer at the SFS where in the last 2 seasons they lost just once. Their shots on target total of 6.1 per match at home is a full single chance (or a value of about 0.33 of a goal) per match.
I have been repeating it all season, what Adelaide would give for a clinical striker. Craig Goodwin is the top scorer with 9 and Nikola Mileusenic who misses out injured here the next highest with 4 goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 1.8+ for a risk of 2 units (max risk of 3 units)

Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

Sat 23rd Feb, 7.50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Victory went to Auckland to meet Wellington last week and continued to miss Ola Toivonen. It was an open game with both keepers producing world class saves to keep the score to 1-1. I expect Toivonen to play this week, if not from the start but certainly for 30 minutes at least. They also regain Terry Antonis from suspension so will be at near full strength for the match.

City were on the receiving end of a 1-3 loss to a severely undermanned Jets outfit missing 6 regular starters. They had their chances and plenty of field position but ultimately were not good enough. City did welcome Jamie Maclaren to the team last week and I expect with him in the team they will present more of an attacking threat in the run into the finals.

The teams have met twice this season with City winning 2-1 in Round 1 and the teams sharing a 1-1 draw in Round 9. Conditions should be perfect and I expect a very open match.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Victory are the more adventurous team as the goals scored shows and City are more content to rely on their steady platform to launch attacks.

Victory have the top count of over 2.5 goals and City the top count of under 2.5 goals, focusing on the 27 derbies and 21 have seen over 2.5 goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.65+ for a risk of 3 units (max risk of 3 units)

Newcastle Jets v Adelaide United

Sunday 24th February, 4.00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Newcastle ignored the loss of 6 starting players who were rested with ACL matches either side of last week to record a 3-1 win against City. They were deserved winners looking the more dangerous team despite being on the backfoot for plenty of the match. It remains to be seen who will be in the starting line-up after their trip to Japan and exit from the ACL. Either way I think we get the chance to see a team that are on the rise.

Adelaide have been at their enigmatic best over the past 5 matches picking up points at Perth and City, home injury time wins against Roar and Mariners the bottom pair before a loss to Western Sydney last week. They have the better lead-in to the game however their inconsistency is ultimately their downfall which.

This is a real “6 pointer” with The Jets desperate to pick up a win to propel them towards the top 6.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The Jets need to improve their quality of chance to get the Shots on Conversion rate to an acceptable level.

They have the artillery but need to stop wasting good positions with low percentage chances.
Adelaide are a decent team who once again suffer from a low conversion rate.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle to win at 2.2+ for 2 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Western Sydney Wanderers v Perth Glory

Sunday 24th February, 7:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Western Sydney won back to back matches for the first time this season with a good 3-1 win in Adelaide last week. They have finally found a little form and bar the 1-5 loss to Newcastle 3 weeks ago could have had a few more points having led Perth, City and Brisbane going into the last 10 mins only to pick up 1 point from 9. Kwame Yeboah missed last week but should be available for this match. With Alex Baumjohann returning last week they now look to have a very good team.

Perth destroyed Brisbane last week, cruising to a 4-0 win. Their dominance was complete and they are looking inevitable premiership winners at this stage. Scott Neville replaced Ivan Franjic after 35 minutes last week and will again fill the right wing-back role.

They have met twice this season in Perth with a draw and win to Perth. As noted Western Sydney led 3-1 in the 77^th minute before falling 3-4.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Perth are strong at both ends of the field with their shots on target conceded near record lows and their conversion rate extraordinary based on their quality of chances created.

Western Sydney have the highest number of total shots at 15.8 over the last 6 rounds but still have conceded a league worse 7 shots on target per match.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth to win at 1.7+ for 2 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Sydney v Central Coast

Sunday 17th February, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney were poor last week after becoming very complacent once they went 1-0 up over Brisbane before losing 1-2. Coach Steve Corica will be expecting a serious reaction and I expect he will get it with Sydney bouncing straight back to wins after their previous 3 losses this season. I expect Alex Brosque to start which will give them far more energy and venom in attack.

Central Coast were outplayed by the Wanderers last start on the back of a series of more encouraging performances. They regain Matt Simon and Jacob Melling who are 2 big ins.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

With an away record of 0-1-9 this season the Mariners stats don’t lie. Their shots on target against is “bettered” only by themselves twice over the last 4 seasons.

Sydney are not the dominant team of the last couple of seasons lacking in creativity in the front third of the field. Sydney home wins have been Home/Home on the half full double on 13 of their last 16 occasions.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Home/Home in the Half Full Double market at 1.7+ for 2 units

Wellington v Melbourne Victory

Friday 15th February, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington have gone a little off the boil in the last few weeks picking up 4 points from 12 after a run of 9 unbeaten. They were good value against Newcastle last week in fact they were by far the better team in the 1^st half even though they went to the break 0-1.

They had to weather a storm from the Jets in the 2^nd half but nicked a goal and could have won it with a late penalty. This match in Auckland where they are expecting a very big crowd will be pivotal to their championship credentials and they go into the match at all but full strength.

Victory were thoroughly outplayed by Perth last week going down 1-2 at home. The return of Keisuke Honda was a welcome sight for fans but without Ola Toivonen, who misses again here, they looked less dynamic in attack. Terry Antonis joins Toivonen and Carl Valeri on the sidelines this week which stips the Victory of 3 of their leading early season players.

Wellington have picked up a win and draw in Melbourne already this season and were unlucky not to have won both so they won’t be afraid of the Victory.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The Victory conversion rate is still off the charts and in fact on a sample of their last 6 matches it has risen to 47%. To put that into context excluding them the average is 31%. They also work on creating high quality chances.

Wellington are better than most their stats suggest and a lot of that can be put down to the spirit and work ethic instilled by coach Mark Rudan. In New Zealand 13 of the 6 clashes have seen over 2.5 goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Wellington at 2.8+ for a risk of 1 unit

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for a risk of 2 units

Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar

Friday 16th February, 10:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

I noted previously that since Perth have been back to full strength they are absolutely flying, easing to home wins over Newcastle and Wellington before being far to good for Victory. They have built a rock sturdy defence and now have the magicians up front led by Diego Castro pulling the strings.

They come into this match as raging hot favourites which can always make teams vulnerable in this league and Perth were not exceptions under Kenny Lowe but the task master that is Tony Popovic won’t be letting any complacency creep in.

Brisbane won just their 2^nd match last week at home to Sydney (a performance I, as a Sydney supporter unfortunately had to witness first hand!). It was some comeback particularly given they were down on troops prior to match kick off and lost 2 of their starting defenders within the first 30 minutes.

Such was the nature of their limited options they introduced Izaack Powell who at just shy of 17 became their youngest ever player and what a debut it was from a very impressive left back who was very hard into the tackle and clever in distribution.

One to watch for sure. In truth though the result last week was possibly more down to the very poor play from Sydney after they took the lead rather than the Brisbane performance, but it showed plenty of resolve nonetheless.

They lose Adam Taggart who has transferred to an Asian Club midweek which is quite a blow. They will be under the pump for the majority of this match.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Perth are as good as their stats suggest, particularly defensively where their concession of shots on target is the 2^nd fewest recorded by any of the 39 other teams back to 2015-16. They are clinical in attack also which is a deadly combination.

Not many positives for Brisbane aside from the fact they are working hard. 12 of the last 14 clashes between these 2 have resulted in over 2.5 goals. Of the last 7 in Perth 6 have been over 3.5 with an average of 4.86 goals per match.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth -1.5 in the Asian Handicap market at 1.8+ for 2 units

 BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 2.2+ for a risk of 2 units

Western Sydney v Central Coast

Saturday 9th February, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

After a run of disappointing results with fair performances the Wanderers fell apart last week losing 1-5 at home to Newcastle. That result took their home record this season to W1 D1 L7. They welcome Alex Baumjohann back to the squad although I doubt he will start the match.

Added to the recent arrivals of Mitchell Duke and Kwame Yeboah they have a strong looking attack. The question for the Wanderers is are they up for this or are they rattled after last week.

Central Coast led Victory 2-0 at half time only to go down 2-3. They have been playing much better over the last few weeks and also led Adelaide away from home for the previous week. Two poor teams with little between them.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Both teams are struggling and their stats back that up. Both concede at high rates due in most part to the quality of chances they allow for their opposition.

Betting Strategy

 LAY- Western Sydney at 1.8 or less for a risk of 1.5 units

Melbourne City v Adelaide

Saturday 9th February, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

City were poor last week in their 0-2 loss to Sydney even though they had a late penalty saved that would have taken the score to 1-1 with 10 minutes to go.

They welcome Jamie Maclaren to the team which will give them some much needed focus in attack. The question now is will that take them to the next level? Probably, but he will still need some better-quality service than they have been offering up of late.

Adelaide have been forced to fight back from 0-1 v Central Coast and 0-3 v Brisbane at home in the last 2 weeks. It is a positive that they have managed the comebacks but realistically to be in those positions in the first place against the bottom 2 sides is very poor. They need to improve big time against a team that is always hard to beat at home.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Both teams are solid in defence. Particularly City when playing at home where their record is W5 D2 L1. Both teams play tight defensive football with a good number of clean sheets between them.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals 1.85+ for 2 units

 BACK – Melbourne City at 2.1+ for 1 unit

Melbourne Victory v Perth

Sunday 10th February, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

This should be a cracking match between the top 2 on the table with both coming off wins last round.

Victory got out of jail in Gosford when they came back from 2-0 down to win 3-2, perhaps it was a hangover from their big win over Sydney the previous week.

They add Keisuke Honda to their squad with him likely to start from the bench, but it will certainly be a big positive whether he starts or plays, as I expect 20-30 mins.

Perth were electric in their 3-0 home win over Wellington when they just went through the motions and are looking fearsome when at full strength. Alex Grant misses here which is a big loss with Matt Spiranovic or Dino Djulbic to deputise. Perth set up as the perfect away team so will be very hard to beat.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Given their positions on the ladder it is obvious they would have statistics that crystalise this fact. Perth are yet to lose away from home this season with 5 wins and 2 draws.

Excluding the derby Victory at home are W5 D2 L1, that loss being a 2-3 reverse to Perth in round 2. Victory are 17-6 over/under in the last 2 seasons.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.7+ for 3 units

 BACK – Perth to win at 2.8+ for 1 unit

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City

Saturday 26th January, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington turned in another good week despite the midweek 0-1 loss at home to Sydney who were at the peak of their powers. They have a great mentality and there is no doubt they will bounce back here. After a rest in that match I expect Sapreet Singh to return to the attacking line-up to sharpen up their attack.

City got out of jail against the Wanderers scoring twice in the last 10 mins to win 4-3. Had that comeback not eventuated we would be looking at a team coming into this off the back of a home draw to Perth and that loss away to Central Coast. They have a fully fit squad to choose from but need to lift to be a serious contender despite their position on the ladder.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Away from home City are only averaging 3 shots on target per match easily the lowest total in the league. They have a mean defence and come up against a team that is improving in defence at home themselves.

City are the number 1 ranked team for under 2.5 goal results in the league including 5 of 7 away matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Wellington to win at 2.2+ for 2 units

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 2.0+ for a risk of 2 units

Melbourne Victory v Sydney

Saturday 26th January, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

This should be a fantastic match as has come to be expected when these 2 go head to head. Both teams had their last match against Wellington, the Victory fighting back from 1-3 down at home to draw 3-3.

Perhaps due to those exertions the Phoenix struggled to stay with Sydney midweek but there is no doubt that if we were to try to take a line through Wellington we can surmise that Sydney were better performed.

Victory have no new injury concerns but still miss Keisuke Honda who is listed as another week away. Hopefully for Sydney fans he doesn’t make a surprise comeback here. Sydney on the other hand have lost Siem De Jong and Anthony Caceres after the trip to Wellington. Siem De Jong had just started to settle in to the team which is most disappointing.

The early nature of their injuries also meant that Alex Brosque and Daniel De Silva had to play more than planned and they have little room for any team rotation here. The extra midweek trip to Wellington is likely to make them vulnerable.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Victory home matches are 27-9 over/under 2.5 goals since the start of the 16/17 season whilst Sydney are 20-15 away from home in that same time. The Victory conversion and concession rates are off the scale and any mean reversion will bring them back to the pack.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for 3 units

Brisbane v WSW

Friday 25th January, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Brisbane seemed like they were going to make a run after their change of coach however after a couple of improved efforts they have picked up just the 2 points from a possible 18. They had to fight back from a goal down to Central Coast last week, securing a draw which helped neither team.

They have Jacob Pepper, Eric Bautheac and Matt McKay all out suspended and will be reliant on a makeshift team.

Western Sydney have turned dropping points into an art form having led 2 of their last 3 going into the last 10 minutes before ultimately losing. They have been playing well even without their best in Alex Baumjohann but now miss Keanu Baccus to suspension also.

It’s very difficult to determine the mentality of the team and how bruising those losses are but they are certainly playing well enough to be beating most teams, particularly fellow strugglers like Brisbane.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Brisbane are poor at both ends of the field whilst Western Sydney at least can offer some attacking threat. Western Sydney have been improving with their last 6 matches showing more attacking output and better defensive solidity. Both teams have had plenty of overs this year.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Western Sydney at 2.5+ for a risk of 1 unit

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for a risk of 2 units

Western Sydney v Newcastle

Friday 1st February, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Last week I wrote “Western Sydney have turned dropping points into an art form having led 2 of their last 3 going into the last 10 minutes before ultimately losing” but never did I think they could top it again this time conceding in the 92^nd and 96^th minutes to finally draw 2-2 at Brisbane.

They were let down badly by another Janjetovic brain snap who turned a regulation goal kick into a defensive corner that they ultimately conceded from. They regain Josh Risdon and Keanu Baccus from international duty and suspension respectively whilst also adding Mitchell Duke to the midfield/attack. They once again played quite well last week as they have done for a number of weeks now.

Newcastle returned to near enough full strength several weeks ago but the upturn in results I expected hasn’t eventuated yet with just the win over the Mariners to show for their last 5 matches and they were soundly beaten by Perth on Sunday. They are running out of time to turn it around, like their opposition, and this is a pivotal match for both teams.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Western Sydney continue to create plenty of chances but just can’t get control of either their conversion or concession rates.

Their last 6 performances have seen them improving across the board. Newcastle continue to have a lot of shots on goal but as their own conversion rate attests they spend far too much time taking shots with a very low probability of scoring.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Western Sydney at 2.1+ for a risk of units

Perth v Wellington

Saturday 2nd February, 10:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Perth are undefeated in 7 and their performance on Sunday at home to Newcastle was one of complete control after the squad rotation ceased and they returned to near enough their best starting 11.

I say near enough as Chris Ikonomidis, their best player prior to his international sojourn, returns this week. This is not a simple match for them, but they will give up very little at the back and are a deadly team in attack, which unsurprisingly is a good formula for success!

Wellington are in impressive form themselves having lost just 1 in their last 11. They are edging closer to securing a top 6 birth with the Jets in 7^th 11 points behind and the Wanderers in 8^th 16 points behind. They played well against City and controlled most of the match last week to win 1-0 but do miss Andrew Durante who has played all bar 21 minutes of the season.

I’m expecting a fantastic match with plenty of skill on both teams.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Perth are dominant on most stats, with their defensive numbers off the charts. Their attacking numbers look a little low but the chances they create are high on quality.

Wellington are still conceding too many chances, particularly away from home where they have conceded 6.3 shots per match in 7 matches, which makes their record of 2W 4D 1L even more impressive if not necessarily sustainable.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth to win at 1.5+ for 3 units

Sydney v Melbourne City

Sunday 3rd February, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney were good value despite their 1-2 loss to Melbourne Victory last week. They tend to be rocks or diamonds with just 2 draws and a mix of superb and average performances. Still they have managed to continue to pick up points and are genuine contenders.

They will need a small defensive reshuffle with Zullo out suspended but with the return of Rhyan Grant I suspect we will see Aaron Calver switch flanks to cover the left back position with Grant straight back into right back.

City lost 0-1 at Wellington last week after getting out of jail at home to Western Sydney the game before. They will be lifted by the news of the signing of Jamie Maclaren although he won’t feature here. The entirety of their squad is available, bar of course the ostracised Bruno Fornaroli.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Not much between these two. Sydney have won 5 of 7 home matches this season taking their home record in the since the start of the 16/17 season to 25W 6D 3L.

City away from home are 3W 1D 4L thanks mostly to their league high 6 clean sheets.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sydney to win at 1.9+ for 2 units

Wellington v Sydney

Wed 23rd January, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington are now undefeated in 9 matches after another strong away performance at Victory on Sunday where they drew 3-3. Despite leading 3-1 and having to hang on for a point late it was good performance in an incredibly open but even match.

Scarily during this undefeated run they have returned to having a 100% fully fit and available squad and with a WDL away record of 2-4-1 they are starting to look like contenders.

Sydney were reliant on an own goal to emerge 1-0 winners over Newcastle in a game that they should have won more comfortably but for some poor finishing. Sydney have won 6 of their last 7 without playing well.

They have Josh Brillante, Milos Ninkovic and Paulo Retre returning all likely to go straight back into the starting line-up.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Wellington have moved up to 5^th and with an 11-point break on 7^th and the fact 6^th have averaged 36 points in the 8 seasons of 27 home and away matches they are already within touching distance of securing a top 6 birth. Their position on the table is overshooting on their expected position and interestingly most markers have actually gone slightly backwards in their last 6 matches where they have been saved by a conversion rate of 48%. The last 3 Wellington matches have seen 5,5 and 6 goals.

Sydney have a lot of work to do in attack however they are keeping it tight in defence which is something that doesn’t look like changing albeit 5 of their last 6 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for a risk of 2 units (max risk of 3 units)

Newcastle v Central Coast

Wed 23rd January, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Newcastle were unlucky to lose to Sydney 0-1 courtesy of an own goal. They didn’t create much against a tough defence however they come up against one of the weakest defences in the league. They are missing a couple of key players in Kantarovski and Hoffman but have been on the improve the last month without getting any results.

Central Coast picked up their first win last week with their 2-1 home win over Melbourne City. They backed that up just a few days later with a point at home to Brisbane. They struggled when these teams met at Gosford in round 9 losing 1-2 to Newcastle who dominated most the match.
They have their most influential player in Matt Simon out for this match but will certainly have gained some momentum after last weeks results.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Newcastle are top for Total Shots but only 4^th for shots on target as they spend far too much time taking low percentage shots from outside the area which results in the low conversion rate. A re-focus on quality over quantity would be advised.
Central Coast just continue to struggle across the board.

In 21 derbies at Newcastle there have been 9 draws (42%) and 15 under 2.5 results, including the last 6. In all 30 of 45 derbies have resulted in under 2.5 goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 2.25+ for 1.5 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Sydney v Newcastle

Sat 19th January, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney churned out another result with a 2-1 win over Adelaide at Jubilee last week. With Siem De Jong finding his rhythm and scoring from a great free kick last week they are continuing to accumulate points as they still adapt to the style of Coach Steve Corica.

They are going to continue to improve but miss Josh Brillante along with Rhyan Grant here and as such are somewhat vulnerable.

Newcastle have been playing better recently without getting any results for it. They were in both recent matches against the Melbourne duo before ultimately coming up empty handed. They are nearing full strength with Ronnie Vargas and Joe Champness back this week. I expect them to get on a run sooner or later.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Newcastle’s only real trouble is converting chances, or more to the point creating guilt edged chances and their stats suggest they are much stronger than their position on the ladder shows.
Sydney are still travelling along ok, if not to the lofty peaks they did in the Arnie-era.

The Over/Under 2.5 goals statistics strongly point to the over. At home Sydney are 5-1 this season and were 11-3 last season whilst the Jets are 5-2 this season and were 11-2 last season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at $1.65+ for 3 Units

Melbourne City v Perth

Sat 19th January, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

City were on a decent roll winning 4 from 5 before that 1-2 loss midweek in Gosford to the Mariners. They will be looking for a serious response here, the only problem being that they just don’t convince as a side that is going to be able to score a lot of goals and as such results will have to be continuously ground out, which is not easy. They are at full strength but the Fornaroli saga means they are still without a class striker.

Perth looked on the way to defeat on a couple of occasions at home to the Wanderers last Sunday before ultimately getting out of jail with a 4-3 win thanks to 4 goals in the last 25 mins.

They are very strong across the park and play a brand of football that is ideal for away fixtures hence the record this season of 5 wins and 1 draw from 6 matches.

This should be a very entertaining match played in perfect conditions.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Perth have a conversion rate that is off the charts. They both have tight defences, leading the league in defensive stats. Against the stats that support the under I envisage a very open end to end match and Perth have plenty of momentum.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth to win at 2.5+ for 2 units

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.9+ for 1 unit

Western Sydney v Adelaide

Fri 18th January, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Western Sydney did everything but win in Perth last week leading 2-0 after 67 minutes and 3-2 after 77 minutes only to fall to a couple of late sucker punches and go down 3-4. They were without Alex Baumjohann, Oriol Riera and Josh Risdon in recent matches and now add Jordan O’Doherty and Keanu Baccus to the list of absentees.

To put that into perspective combined those players have started a combined for 57 of the 130 outfield starters this season. It is going to be a big ask for this team to put together a string of consistent performances. However, the signing of Kwame Yeboah already looks like a master stroke as he finished his first starting appearance with a goal and 2 assists.

Adelaide have been very inconsistent with their last 6 matches split 2W 2D and 2L. They were right in the game with Sydney and could have pinched a point at the death bar a fantastic save from Sydney keeper Andrew Redmayne. Doubt there will be any personnel changes from last week with no fresh injury or suspension worries.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The Wanderers create plenty so with a new sharp shooter may improve their poor conversion rate over the 2^nd half of the season. At home they have won just 1 from 7 with 5 losses.

Adelaide continue to roll along in a midtable position. Their conversion rate is also something that needs improvement.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Adelaide at 2.3+ for a risk of 2 units

Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners

Sat 12th January, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington have come through 3 road games in 12 days drawing at Victory, Adelaide and beating Western Sydney. They are now undefeated in 7 winning 4 of those and currently sit 6th with a 7-point buffer to the Jets in 7th. They are without Alex Rufer and Mandi Sosa suspended however they have a deep squad and in Sarpreet Singh arguably the most exciting young player in the tournament.

Central Coast continue to struggle, though in fairness to them they were on the way to beating Sydney away prior to Kalifa Cisse getting himself sent-off. He is suspended here and joined by Aiden O’Neill who along with Matt Millar have been the Mariners best this season.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Wellington still give up too many opportunities to their opposition but in part that is due to their counter attacking style where they sit and absorb plenty of pressure. Wellington have averaged 0.9 points per game in the last 3 seasons but 1.6 points per game this season.

Central Coast are 0-1-5 from 6 away matches this season and 3-9-16 since the start of the 2016/17 season. Their statistics tell no lies as they struggle in every facet of the game.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Back Wellington -1 in the Asian Handicap market at 1.8+ for a risk of 2 units

Sydney v Adelaide United

Sun 13th January, 6:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Whilst they still sit 2^nd on the table I can’t help but think Sydney are at somewhat of a crossroad in their season. Three ago they were lucking to collect the 3 points at home to the Roar after their opponents missed a late penalty. Subsequently they were on their way to losing to the Mariners at home prior to benefitting by the Cisse send-off and finally were completely dominated in Perth losing 1-3, a result more concerning given their recent dominance of the Glory.

Adelaide come off the back of a resounding 2-0 win over their greatest rivals Victory midweek. They get Vince Lia and Mirko Boland back into the squad and are starting to build into a very competitive team.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Nothing much between these teams statistically. Their conversion rates are at either end of the spectrum and realistically the variance between their positions on the ladder.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Sydney at 2.1 or less for a risk of 2 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Perth v Western Sydney

Sun 13th January, 7:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Perth have won 3/3 over the Christmas and New Year period including a resounding 3-1 win over Sydney. They miss Chris Ikonomidis but with Diego Costa continuing to gain match fitness they are proving themselves hard to beat and are now at full strength Ikonomidis aside. Typical of Tony Popovic coached teams they are hard to break down and they are now 6 points clear in the race for the premiership.

Western Sydney are improving and yet the results are not coming which is visibly frustrating the team. They have picked up just 1 point in their last 5 matches a concern when 4 of them have been at home. They lost Oriol Riera and their best player Alex Baumjohann to injury out of the Wellington match, so the addition of Kwame Yeboah is timely.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The Perth statistics resoundingly back up their dominance on the table and it will be scary if they start to produce more chances.

Western Sydney should turn their season around at some stage as they are above the mean in several key areas however it is seemingly going to take to time.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Perth to win at 1.7+ for 3 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Western Sydney Wanderers v Wellington Phoenix

Tuesday 8th January, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Western Sydney put in their best performance of the season on Saturday at home to the Victory, but ultimately still lost 1-2. They had plenty of good chances squandered in the most part by Oriol Riera. Defensively they looked a much more balanced team with Tarek Elrich on the left and young Tate Russell made a fantastic debut.

Wellington were under pressure for most of the 90 minutes in Adelaide, particularly after the sending off of Mandi. They have now lost just once away from home and have are on an unbeaten run of 6 matches.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Western Sydney are inconsistent in their statistics but fall down in both the conversion rate of the chances they create and the concession rate of which they concede goals. Wellington are over-achieving compared to their stats.

That isn’t to say their current run is not deserved or will change necessarily end but they do give up a lot of chances and have been lucky not to concede at a higher rate.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Western Sydney to win at 2.0+ for a risk of 1 unit (max risk of 3 units)

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 2.1+ for a risk of 2 units (max risk of 3 units)

Adelaide v Victory

Wednesday 9th January, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Adelaide were held to a goalless draw at home to Wellington on the weekend, a result that would have disappointed them given all the chances they created and the benefit of an extra man for 25 minutes.

Victory were below their best in a scrappy 2-1 win at Western Sydney. They have been below their best for the last 3 matches without Keisuke Honda, which is a concern for the longer term. Thankfully Ola Toivonen continues to improve and gives them an incredibly strong focal point.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

As noted previously Adelaide are still struggling for home consistency with their record since the Grand Final win of 2015/16 season, 10 wins 12 draws and 12 losses having kept just 6 clean sheets, with the clean sheet on Saturday their first clean sheet in 12 matches.
Victory are still proving lethal in attack and slowly improving in defence.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Victory Draw No Bet at 1.9+ to win for 2 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix

Saturday 5th January, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

This will be Adelaide’s 3^rd game in 8 days and after a disappointing home draw with Western Sydney they were lucky to win 2-1 away to Newcastle with both goals coming against the run of play. Jordan Elsey returns to the centre of defence which is a bonus.

Wellington are undefeated in 5 and have play their 3^rd game in 12 days after easing to a 4-1 win over Brisbane at home they were good value for their 1-1 draw at Victory. They have a complete squad and have strengthened with the signing of former Irish International striker Cillian Sheridan to add depth to an already deep squad.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

There is nothing, literally nothing between these teams with identical records through 10 rounds.

As noted previously Adelaide are still struggling for home consistency with their record since the Grand Final win of 2015/16 season, 10 wins 11 draws and 12 losses having kept just 5 clean sheets and are without a clean sheet in their last 11 matches.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Adelaide at 2.1 or less for a risk of 2 units

Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets

Sunday 6th January, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

City have impressed with a strong performance in the Melbourne derby for a 1-1 draw followed up with a comfortable 2-0 win at Western Sydney. Importantly Lachlan Wales bagged an impressive goal to solidify his position and provide a bit of confidence. They lose Rostyn Griffiths to suspension but he should be ably replaced by Osama Malik.

Newcastle are fronting up for their 4^th game in 13 days. They started with a come from behind victory in the F3 derby before throwing away points at home to Adelaide (1-2) and Brisbane (2-2) after conceding late games in both. They are improving but it is a big ask to perform again after such a heavy schedule.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

City have not been producing enough clear chances but converting at a reasonable rate to compensate. What they have been doing is defending incredibly well and have, at least for now the best keeper in the comp.

Newcastle are slowly, very slowly clicking into gear. They have much to improve on particularly that conversion rate and turning those shots on target into better quality chances.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – City at 1.9+ to win for 3 units

Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory

Sunday 6th January, 7:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Coach John Aloisi resigned on the back of the 1-4 loss to Wellington before a pair of encouraging performances away to Sydney losing 1-2 but missing a late penalty and twice coming from behind to draw 2-2 at Newcastle. The players have come out and admitted their performances were not good enough and cost Aloisi his role.

They are improving and get Daniel Bowles back from suspension although the performance of his young replacement Aaron Reardon may see him come back via the bench.

Perth lost 1-4 to Sydney before easing to a comfortable 4-1 win at the Mariners. With Shane Lowry back they are at full strength bar missing Chris Ikonomidis who is with the Socceroos. They setup as the perfect away team and although I was happy to risk them last week they are not particularly vulnerable.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Brisbane have little by way of positive statistics from the season so far and will be reliant on the bounce effect of a new manager.

Perth are very strong but still need to increase their attacking output to be less reliant on their conversion rate.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth at 2.2+ for a risk of 2 units

Sydney FC v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 29th December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney bounced back to their best last week comfortably accounting for Perth. It was a much-improved performance and one they will look to back up against an opposition that has been very poor of late.

They lose Rhyan Grant to the Socceroos but have plenty of cover with Paulo Retre likely to drop back to the defensive position.

Brisbane were very poor in Wellington. They welcome back Eric Bautheac and Stefan Mauk who are both big inclusions. They are in danger of being dropped from the race to the Top 6 and need to improve quickly.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The statistics around Brisbane are consistent with their position on the table. Sydney have a conversion rate that is likely to revert closer to the long term mean of 31% and as such they need to increase their attempt creation.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sydney -1.0 in the Asian Handicap market at 1.7+ for 3 units

Newcastle Jets v Adelaide United

Sunday 30th December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

The Jets came from behind to beat the Mariners in the F3 Derby 2-1. It was a much-improved performance without being the end product. The return of Roy O’Donovan gave them more direction in attack and they will continue to improve.

Adelaide were thankful to Nikola Mileusnic who scored a couple of very good goals on his return to the team. They must do without Jordan Elsey who was red carded and must cope with a very quick 4-day turnaround.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The Jets are performing better than their position suggests and as noted last week are likely to improve up the table now that they have a strong target man up front. Adelaide have been reasonably consistent albeit with much improvement to come.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle at 2.2+ for 1 unit

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 1.9+ for 2 units

Central Coast v Perth Glory

Monday 31st December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Central Coast are still winless and bereft of confidence having lost the F3 derby from a winning position. They need to improve rapidly to have any hope of a top-6 finish.

They will welcome the return of Tommy Oar but still miss Ross McCormack which reduces their potency in attack.

Perth were quite poor in their home loss to Sydney and now miss their best defender Shane Lowry who is suspended and their most influential attacker in Chris Ikonomidis who is on Asian Cup duty.

They have added Alex Grant and Diego Castro but question marks exist over whether they are ready for this match.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The Mariners table position is backed up by their shocking stats with improvement at both ends of the park necessary.

Perth are doing well on the ladder but their stats, particularly attacking output suggest they may be over-achieving at this stage of the season. The head to head stats in Gosford are a concern for Perth as they have won 1 of 19 with just 2 draws and 16 losses.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Central Coast at 4.0+ for a risk of 1.5 units

Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 22nd December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

City did well last week winning 2-0 in Adelaide. It was a comfortable win that perhaps said more about the lack of cutting edge offered by Adelaide as the sturdy defence offered by City. This will be a completely different type of test and given they have alternated wins and losses over the last 6 rounds they need to find more consistency.

Broken record time but once again Victory were irrepressible going forward and heart attack material at the back last week in their 4-2 win at Brisbane. There were aided by the 20^th minute brain explosion from Eric Bautheac but would have won anyway.

Interesting dynamic this week with James Troisi, Thomas Deng and to a lesser extent Terry Antonis all being spoken of as potential Asian Cup squad members missing out.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The most dynamic attack against one of the best defences. The Victory shots on target figure of 6.1 is the on target to be the highest figure in my OPTA data stretching back to the start of the 2015/16 season. There have been 26 Melbourne Derbies with 21 recording over 2.5 goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.7+ for 3 units

Central Coast v Newcastle Jets

Saturday 23rd December, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Central Coast are in danger of tailing off in the competition and given they are 9 points off the top 6 it is really getting towards must win time. They didn’t look like a desperate team last week after being outplayed by Wellington and have now lost 6 in a row.

Newcastle have been performing well despite the results. They regain Roy O’Donovan for this match which may help their attacking output, although he can hardly be expected to fire first match back.
They were the dominant team last week in their 0-2 home loss to Perth and will likely improve rapidly now with a focal point in attack.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The Mariners position on the table is sadly a true reflection of their stats and they can’t suggest that they have been unlucky. On the other hand Newcastle are building the profile of a team that is much stronger than their table position implies.

The attacking conversion rate will lift now with Roy O’Donovan back, which is arguably all they have needed. There have been 44 Derbies of which 30 have been under 2.5 goals and there have been 16 draws (36%) in those 44 derbies with the teams splitting the other 28 matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 1.9+ for 2 units

Adelaide United v WSW

Wednesday 26th December, 7:50pm AEDT

Adelaide once again struggled to break down City although City keeper, and former Adelaide hero, Eugene Galekovic did produce some fantastic saves. They will almost certainly be on the lookout for a new striker come the January transfer window with Besart Berisha mentioned in places, although I would highly doubt that.

Western Sydney were all over Sydney last week prior to the Vedran Janjetovic brain snap and sending off. From that point they were completely dominated, and it is a big concern that manager Marcus Babbel removed their best player to get the back-up keeper on.

It is textbook to remove the attacking midfielder in such a scenario but showed a real lack of feel for the team who without Alex Baumjohann were unable to keep the ball for more than 1 or 2 passes.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Adelaide are doing well on most markers except for their inability to keep a clean sheet. Their home record is a concern. Since the Grand Final win of 2015/16 season, they are 10 wins 10 draws and 12 losses having kept just 5 clean sheets and are without a clean sheet in their last 10 matches.

Western Sydney are poor at the back conceding far too many chances and need to tighten up to allow their team to build on their good creativity.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Adelaide at 2.2 or less for a risk of 2 units

Wellington v Central Coast

Saturday 15th December, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington destroyed Perth last week and have perhaps bounced back to the potential they showed in the first couple of games of the season. They have certainly improved with Sarpeet Singh providing a cutting edge and Roy Krishna now firing in the goals.

The Mariners really have hit rock bottom. They have lost 5 on the trot and are yet to dominate any team this season. On top of anything they lose Ben Kennedy and Tom Hiariej for this match.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Wellington have been battling away and trying. Central Coast have been trying but have nothing to show for it. Whilst both are low on most of the stats Wellington are just better.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Wellington at 2.1+ for 2 units

WSW v Sydney FC

Saturday 15th December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Western Sydney have beaten only Central Coast and Wellington this season and still have lots of work to do defensively but they are starting to put it together and in Alex Baumjohann they have the most gifted attacking midfielder in the league.

Sydney are struggling. They have been good in patches but as was the case last week can be horribly exposed in defence. Their creation of good chances is a sore point and they must certainly add another striker in the up-coming January transfer window.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Sydney are producing nothing but defending well. Wanderers are producing plenty but defending poorly. A dichotomy of statistics likely to produce an interesting match.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) WSW to Win at 2.8+ for 1 units

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 Goals at 1.8+ for 2 units

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory

Friday 14th December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Brisbane return home after 2 weeks on the road and are slowly improving without getting any results. They have gained 5 of 9 points at home but against Central Coast, Wellington and City who are not strong away teams. Equally they are not dominant in statistics at home.

Victory are rolling having won 5 in a row after starting the season with back to back defeats. They have now scored 12-2 in the last 4 rounds. They still have work to do defensively and will be without Georg Niedermeier in this match.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Victory create quality chances and are very good going forward. I’m like a broken record saying they still have work to do defensively, but with such a strong attack they will likely be able to cope.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Melbourne Victory at 1.9+ for 2 units

Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United

Saturday 8th December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

What can we say about the Victory win last week but wow. They were incredibly dynamic particularly their threat on goal. As I suggested prior to Round 1 they are definitely the team to beat this year, but it is worth noting that the Wanderers were very bad last week with their defence once again showing what not to do. Still the Victory are humming and with their defence starting to look more stable they are very hard to beat.

Adelaide have started the season very well building on a strong defence and central midfield to unleash their wide attackers and in particularly Craig Goodwin who was again their best player last week. They could have had 4 or 5 v the Roar except for some bad luck. So, they certainly can’t be taken lightly.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Both teams with above average statistics confirming their positions on the table. At home since the start of the 2016/17 season 25 of 32 Victory matches have been over 2.5 goals and despite the rivalry between these 2 the last 10 in Melbourne have seen 8 over 2.5.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.7+ for 3 units

Perth Glory v Melbourne City

Saturday 8th December, 10:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Perth were terrible in Wellington last week, escaping with a point thanks to a late surge after the Phoenix went down to 10 men. They had a decent record in the “distance derby” so it is hard to put it down to the travel. The question we now must ask is was their previous form or last week’s form a true indication of them? I’m leaning to it being an aberration at this point though with wins in the 93^rd and 95^th minutes and last weeks late equaliser my confidence in them is waning. Still they have a fantastic squad to freshen things up.

I was against City last week and to be fair I got it wrong. That said they had a poor defensive error to help them get the ball rolling and the Jets were on top heading into half time before a world class goal from Luke Brattan on the stroke of half time basically finished it as a contest. They once again leave out Fornaroli for disciplinary or fitness reasons, he has failed a skin fold test apparently, amazing.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Both defences are going well. Perth have been converting their limited number of chances well, in most part due to the quality of the chances created so any reversion to a league wide mean of just 31% may not occur. On the other hand, City are not converting well and if we consider that 3 of their 8 goals have been from positions that we would normally expect 1 to be converted the rate would be as low as 20.7%. What they wouldn’t give for a predatory striker!

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN)  Perth to win at 2.1+ for 2 units

Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar

Sunday 9th December, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Newcastle were ok last week despite being beaten 0-3 at City. They are missing any cutting edge up front and with Ronald Vargas out injured could suffer further as Jair has yet to really catch the eye. Just 2 more weeks of suspension left for Roy O’Donovan and the jets fans must be counting the days.

Brisbane were far from disgraced in Adelaide in a crazy match. Adelaide could have had more but so too could have Brisbane. They managed to work into good areas and had 11 shots attempts from inside the box the 3^rd highest of any away team this season. I don’t expect as open a match here.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Neither team is doing particularly well nor particularly poorly. Brisbane still have some work to cut down the number of opportunities they are presenting to opposition teams. Their number 1 ranked in concession of goals from shots on target and certainly can’t rely on Jamie Young to keep bailing them out as good a goalkeeper as he is. The Jets have work to do at both ends of the ground and very low on their conversion rate.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Newcastle at 2.2 or less for a risk of 2 units

 BACK (WIN) Under 2.5 Goals 1.9+ for a risk of 2 units.

Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 1st December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Victory were good enough to beat Sydney 2-1 on the road last week and yet still weren’t firing on all cylinders. Their weakest area in the first 5 rounds was their defence but that looked to be more solid last week and with Ola Toivonen getting fitter they will only continue to improve.

Western Sydney lost 0-2 to Newcastle at Homebush in a match played on a terrible pitch. This didn’t help either team and the match whilst high on chances was low on quality. Western Sydney were left bemoaning key misses from Abraham Majok and Oriol Riera and really could have finished with a draw.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Both teams need to improve defensively whilst Western Sydney need to become more accurate with their shooting which will help improve their shot conversion rate.

In Melbourne, Victory have won 5 of 9 with 3 draws and 1 win to Western Sydney. Overall 10 of the 18 head to head contests.
Victory have struggled at Docklands having drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 6.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.6+ for 3 units

Wellington Pheonix v Perth Glory

Sunday 2nd December, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington lost at home to Adelaide 1-3 last week despite taking a 1-0 advantage early on. I have a very healthy respect for coach Mark Rudan but thought he erred in dropping Sarpreet Singh prior to last week and would think that he should reinstate him to the starting 11 as he offers an X-Factor that most of his teammates do not.

Perth continue to play well at both ends of the park even though they needed a 95^th minute winner to shake off the Central Coast 3-2 in Perth last week. For the most part I thought Perth were in control of the match and really should have won more easily. They lose Alex Grant which is a big loss. Dino Djulbic and Matt Spiranovic are experienced replacements who will be keen to make an impact but not at the same level as Grant is playing at. They have their own X-Factor and the form player of the competition in Chris Ikonomidis who will terrorise this Wellington defence.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

The stats look one-sided and a fair representation of the positions on the ladder. What we don’t see there is that Wellington have defended more poorly at home than they have done on the road. This continues the recent trend which has seen them win just 10 of their last 30 home matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Perth to win at 1.9+ for 2 units

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.6+ for 1 unit

Adelaide United v Brisbane Roar

Friday 30th November, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Adelaide were comfortable 3-1 winners in Wellington to continue their strong start to the season. They are still looking for a lethal striker but are defensively strong and coped well without Michael Jakobsen last week so his unavailability this week shouldn’t be a concern.

Brisbane won their first match of the season last week beating City 2-0 in Brisbane. City were awful and have obvious problems which puts a question mark over the form. Still they couldn’t do much more and with Adam Taggart getting another 2 goals they do have a striker in form.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Despite not possessing and out and out striker the home team has a high conversion rate. Brisbane have the best defensive concession rate. Adelaide need to improve their home form winning 9, drawing 10 and losing 11 of their last 30 matches. Brisbane meanwhile have done ok away from home winning 10 drawing 9 and losing 10 of their last 29.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Adelaide in the match odds market at 2.2 or less for a risk of 2 units

 BACK (WIN) Under 2.5 goals at 1.9+ for 1 unit

Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United

Saturday 24th November, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington were terrible against City last time out and even worse the week before at home to Western Sydney. This was in direct contrast to the first 2 matches of the season where they seemed to have a new sense of self belief. Their concern is also their home form with just 10 wins from their last 29.

Adelaide are rolling along well despite their loss to Perth in their last match. They are much more dynamic with Stamatelopoulos up front. Craig Goodwin will only improve for his time with the national team and with Ken Ilso gaining fitness they are a team that will be a threat for the season.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Both are struggling to produce much offence, Adelaide however have faced Sydney, Newcastle and Perth who are strong defensively. Adelaide are equally strong in defence whilst Wellington have been very lucky just to concede the goals they have given their oppositions conversion rate.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Adelaide to win at 1.9+ for 2 units

Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory

Sunday 25th November, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney are continuing to be hard to break down and are still undefeated this season. They don’t look to be as dominant this season however as they continue to adapt to the departures of Adrian and Bobo. At times they played superbly this season, but they have been flat at points against both Adelaide and Newcastle where they may have been fortunate to come away with draws.

Victory have been consistent in their inconsistency so far but were ominously good against the Mariners in their last match. They were my pre-season tip for the Championship and they will certainly be there at the end of the match provided they stiffen up their suspect defence.

This will be a cracking match and I suspect very open given the speed and ability of both teams.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Diametrically opposed. Sydney have been very strong defensively if a little weak going forward. Victory have been strong in attack but poor in defence.

Sydney have won the last 6 regular season matches against the Victory but in that time the Victory have won a Grand Final and a Preliminary Final in that time.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 Goals at $1.90 for 2 units

Perth Glory v Central Coast

Sunday 11th November, 7:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Perth went to Adelaide and continued their strong start to the season winning 2-0. That win on the road backed up a comfortable home win over Brisbane. They are the form team of the competition thus far and now add Diego Castro to their squad.

The Mariners were disastrous against Victory in their last match and they lose their best player in Tommy Oar for this match. Their central defence has been very poor, and they look to have very few options to strengthen up.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Perth have beaten the Mariners in 6 of their last matches in Perth each of those have been over 2.5 goals. The Mariners are very poor across the board statistically and Perth are very strong. The Mariners have won 3 of their past 30 away matches and lost 17.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Perth -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0+ for 3 units

Newcastle v Sydney

Saturday 10th November, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Newcastle were very good for the first half hour of their clash with the Victory last week but again impotent in front of goal. Their play has deserved more but as noted already this season their attack is still suffering without Roy O’Donovan and as is the norm, import Jair is taking a little time to settle.

Sydney lost the FFA Cup final last Tuesday but bounced back superbly to demolish City in Melbourne. Their passing game is starting to look ominous as is the combination between Ninkovic and Le Fondre. After playing in Adelaide and Melbourne last week they will appreciate the short journey up the freeway to Newcastle where they have won 12 of 20 A-League matches.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Sydney are down on their total shots but still strong on their shots on target. Stepping a little deeper on that stat I find that Sydney have recorded 72% of their total shots from inside the box against a league average of 62%. The Jets for instance have recorded just 52% of their shots from inside hence the variance of total shots but the equivalent shots on target.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Sydney to win at $1.90 for 2 units

Adelaide United v Perth Glory

Sunday 11th November, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Great week for Adelaide last week, winning the FFA Cup and following it up with a comfortable 3-0 win at Central Coast. They looked more potent with Apostolos Stamatelopoulos up front and Ken Ilso playing as the number 10, but the real star of the show this season has been Craig Goodwin who scored 2 doubles last week.

Perth are looking ominous heading into week 4 with 7 points and playing good football. They were in complete cruise control last week against the Roar although they did get slightly complacent and had a few scary moments late on. Still they look to have set up well for the season and as noted with their fluid 5-3-2/3-5-2 structure they are a very strong defensively.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Two undefeated teams built with solid defence as their cornerstone. Adelaide have been reliant on Craig Goodwin who has 3 of their 5 goals (5 of 7 including the FFA Cup). Despite their lack of a clean sheet this season Perth have been strong defensively.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Under 2.5 Goals at $2.0 for 2 units

Melbourne Victory v Central Coast

Sunday 11th November, 7:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

For the first 30 mins last week it looks as if the Victory would head into the season with 3 straight losses. They have scored 1 of their 5 goals before half time and have really struggled to come out of the blocks this season.

The Mariners were very poor last week losing 0-3 at home to Adelaide. It was their worst performance of the season and they will be desperate to bounce back. They have only won 4 of 21 away against the Victory.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Victory have been good going forward but still very sloppy at the back giving up a lot of very good chances. The Mariners statistics are starting to look all too familiar, poor at both ends of the ground.

The Victory have seen over 2.5 goals in 23 of their last 30 home matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 Goals at $1.50 for 3 units

Wellington v Western Sydney

Saturday 3rd November, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington have started well under new coach Mark Rudan picking up 4 points. As predicted in the season preview, they are a combative team with the players fully committed, not something that has always been the case in Wellington.

That isn’t to say they are without skill as they do have plenty and in Sarpeet Singh one of the best young talents of the competition. I expect them to be hard to breakdown again here and they have no injury concerns.

Western Sydney were ok in round 1 picking up a point on the road to Perth but were outplayed in the most part by Sydney in the derby last week, even if VAR controversy worked against them. As stated last week I have real concerns with their defence and expect them to be exposed again, albeit against a team less dynamic than Sydney were in attack.

They do have one of the most talented attacking midfielders in the competition in Alex Baumjohann but with a lack of finishing touch and a wobbly defence he is going to have to be good to lift them.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Very similar across the board with the most glaring statistics the low conversion rate of Western Sydney and the low concession rate of Wellington. These will likely revert closer to the mean in due course but could hold here. Last season at home Wellington were 9-4 over 2.5 whilst Wanderers away were 9-3.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Wellington to win at $2.40 for 1 unit

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 Goals at 1.60+ for 2 Units

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 3rd November, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

The Grand Final re-match, but how that match looks a distant memory after 2 rounds with the Jets picking up 1 point and the Victory getting nothing.

Newcastle are missing Roy O’Donovan up front with Jason Hoffman doing an honest job but struggling playing out of position. They have been better than the results read maintaining a reasonably strong defensive block and being unlucky in 2 of the 3 goals they have conceded thus far.

The Victory have been creating plenty of chances but similarly missing the that killer instinct in front of goal. They are without Kenny Athiu and Ola Toivonen here and it will be interesting to see who starts up front without a real striker to call on. The big problem for Melbourne has been their defence with 4 of the 5 goals they have conceded this season coming about from defensive errors. Looking back on my notes from last season and it was similar, particularly early in the season there. They are certainly vulnerable at the moment.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Nothing particularly poor about either team with the conversion rates low for both in an attacking sense but high from a defensive sense. Victory have won just 3 times in Newcastle from 20 A-League regular season matches, but of course won the most significant one in last seasons Grand Final.

Betting Strategy

Likely to be a tight match but I just have to bet against the Victory defence as it stands.

 BACK (WIN) Newcastle Draw No bet at 1.95+ for 2 units

Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 3rd November, 10:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Perth have started the season very well under new coach Tony Popovic and I really like the set up playing a 5-3-2 with the wide defenders encouraged to get forward. With Diego Castro to come back into the team they look like they are going to be a real threat this season.

Brisbane have started fairly, if unspectacularly, drawing at home to Central Coast and Wellington. Against Central Coast they really should have won with Adam Taggart guilty of spurning a number of good chances. They had a lot of the game against Wellington without creating too much.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

Perth are looking strong across the board albeit with a natural amount of improvement at this early stage of the season. Brisbane have been heavily favoured by the early fixtures with the Mariners and Phoenix at home.

Their big worry is that those are 2 matches they really should be getting at least 4 points from. The shots against is encouraging but again likely due more to the fixturing then brilliant defending.

Betting Strategy

Early to say but Perth are doing well and despite some bright moments Brisbane have started only fairly. I suspect Perth will be far to strong here.

 BACK (WIN) Perth to Win at 1.80+ for 3 units

Sydney v Western Sydney

Saturday 27th October, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney were outplayed for much of the match at Adelaide last week yet still had the class to come away with a point when most teams would not. Rookie Coach Steve Corica has maintained a very stable philosophy within the group which will hold them in good stead. In Adam Le Fondre they have found what looks to be a deadly goal poacher a completely different style of player to Bobo but he is likely to end with similar results assuming he gets the service he requires. The lack of Bobo’s physicality was felt when they tried to clear their lines long and certainly that is one area they must work on and with the Derby followed by the FFA Cup final they don’t have a lot of time.

Western Sydney gave as good as they got against the Glory in Perth last week, eventually leaving with a hard-earned point. I liked the look of them going forward, particularly new man Alex Baumjohann who produced some incredible defence splitting passes. I am however concerned about their back line. Aerially they dealt with Perth ok, but their wide defenders were often caught high up the pitch and I am not a big wrap for the central defensive pair of Tongyik and Hamill.

Statistics Comment

Sydney dominated in every area last season whilst the Wanderers were underperforming in most areas. Sydney have won 9 of the 18 league derbies and the FFA Cup semi-final recently.

Betting Strategy

I expect Sydney to expose the Wanderers in defence and prove too strong.

 BACK (WIN) Sydney -0.75 at 1.9+ for 2 units

Adelaide v Newcastle

Friday 26th October, 7:50pm AEDT, Coopers Stadium

Match Overview

Adelaide were unlucky not to take full points from their season opener at home to Sydney FC. They really should have been 2 or 3 up before Sydney, at their clinical best, levelled the match with their first real chance.

At no point did Sydney dominate them, and they look as if they will be an incredibly difficult team to break down with Jordan Elsey and Michael Jakobsen leading their defensive line. The problem for them was finding that killer instinct in front of goal particularly with Ben Halloran starting as a make shift striker. Tough to blame them when injury and a lack of match fitness took out their main striking options of Diawara, Blackwood, Kitto and Ilso.

They produced a very good base from which to build off and look in for a good season. They have the FFA Cup final on the Tuesday following but I don’t expect them to be too distracted by that event.

Newcastle lost away to Wellington Phoenix despite dominating possession and finishing with the better of the chances. Worryingly for the Jets they seemed to be out fought and out muscled at times, by in fairness a very physical Phoenix.

They have the nucleus of a very strong team but without the direction of Roy O’Donovan up front they may struggle for results, particularly away from home early in the season.

Statistics Comment

The hallmark of the Jets matches last season was the open nature of the matches and number 1 rank for “Overs”. Their first match was over 2.5 albeit with 2 goals in the last 6 minutes. Adelaide were virtually a mirror image of last season but have some reinforcements in attack this week.

Verdict

Despite the Jets figures and another open game against the Phoenix last weekend I expect a very tight match here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Under 2.5 Goals at 2.10+ for 2 Units

Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

Saturday 20th October, 7:50pm AEDT, Marvel Stadium

Match Overview

Victory won the Grand Final last year from 4^th on the ladder and it is fair to say they were very poor for most of the season. Enter Keisuke Honda and Ola Toivonen straight from world cup duties and they look an outstanding outfit. Added to this I think this will be a big season for “King” Kenny Athiu and the attacking threat is awesome.

City lost Ross McCormack midway through last season and felt it towards the end of the season with a lack of goals. Bruno Fornaroli was also missing for the majority of last season but has looked sharp in pre-season FFA Cup matches. They are tight defensively but will need to be at the top of their game against a Victory team with a strong front 3.

Key Statistics

The hallmark of the Jets matches last season was the open nature of the matches and number 1 rank for “Overs”. Their first match was over 2.5 albeit with 2 goals in the last 6 minutes. Adelaide were virtually a mirror image of last season but have some reinforcements in attack this week.

Verdict

Two high scoring teams last season and their head to head statistics point to even more strongly to goals with 20 of 25 derbies seeing 3 goals or more.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.6+ for 2 units

 BACK (WIN) over 3.5 goals at 2.4+ for 1 unit

Wellington Pheonix v Newcastle Jets

Sunday 21st October, 3:00pm AEDT, Wellington Regional Stadium

Match Overview

Coach Mark Rudan makes his A-League debut with Wellington and has a largely settled line-up with the exception of the addition of Englishman Stephen Taylor. He will likely have them very organised, but he is also an attacking coach and as such it is likely not much will change for Wellington home games which generally see goals.

Newcastle were fantastic last year getting all the way to the Grand Final. That loss hurt but potentially the most painful aspect may play out this season with Roy O’Donovan banned for 8 matches. That said they were without marquee Ronald Vargas for a big part of the season and as such he is like a new signing, and a good one at that.

Key Statistics

Verdict

Both these teams feature heavily in “overs” matches last season and whilst I think Wellington will be more compact, particularly early in the season I think this match will still see goals and be relatively open

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for 2 units

 BACK (WIN) over 3.5 goals at 2.2+ for 1 unit