Your Weekly A-League Predictions

Your weekly A-League Predictions live here, provided from a pro punter. Exclusive to the Betfair Hub, we will be share expert insight and recommended bets for the biggest games every round.

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Sydney v Newcastle

Sat 19th January, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney churned out another result with a 2-1 win over Adelaide at Jubilee last week. With Siem De Jong finding his rhythm and scoring from a great free kick last week they are continuing to accumulate points as they still adapt to the style of Coach Steve Corica.

They are going to continue to improve but miss Josh Brillante along with Rhyan Grant here and as such are somewhat vulnerable.

Newcastle have been playing better recently without getting any results for it. They were in both recent matches against the Melbourne duo before ultimately coming up empty handed. They are nearing full strength with Ronnie Vargas and Joe Champness back this week. I expect them to get on a run sooner or later.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsSydneyNewcastle
Points26 (3)12 (7)
Win8 (3)3 (7)
Draw2 (6)3 (4)
Lost3 (2)7 (7)
Goals Scored26 (3)14 (8)
Total Shots For (p/match)12.4 (6)17.7 (1)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4.9 (4)4.7 (5)
Goals Conceded17 (5)19 (7)
Total Shots Against (p/m)11.1 (4)10.9 (3)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3.5 (2)4 (4)
Clean Sheets2 (6)2 (6)
Over 2.510 (1)7 (7)
Under 2.53 (10)6 (3)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.41 (3)0.23 (10)
Shots On Concession Rate0.37 (6)0.37 (5)

Statistics Comment

Newcastle’s only real trouble is converting chances, or more to the point creating guilt edged chances and their stats suggest they are much stronger than their position on the ladder shows.
Sydney are still travelling along ok, if not to the lofty peaks they did in the Arnie-era.

The Over/Under 2.5 goals statistics strongly point to the over. At home Sydney are 5-1 this season and were 11-3 last season whilst the Jets are 5-2 this season and were 11-2 last season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at $1.65+ for 3 Units


Melbourne City v Perth

Sat 19th January, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

City were on a decent roll winning 4 from 5 before that 1-2 loss midweek in Gosford to the Mariners. They will be looking for a serious response here, the only problem being that they just don’t convince as a side that is going to be able to score a lot of goals and as such results will have to be continuously ground out, which is not easy. They are at full strength but the Fornaroli saga means they are still without a class striker.

Perth looked on the way to defeat on a couple of occasions at home to the Wanderers last Sunday before ultimately getting out of jail with a 4-3 win thanks to 4 goals in the last 25 mins.

They are very strong across the park and play a brand of football that is ideal for away fixtures hence the record this season of 5 wins and 1 draw from 6 matches.

This should be a very entertaining match played in perfect conditions.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsCityPerth
Points23 (4)32 (1)
Win7 (4)10 (1)
Draw2 (6)2 (6)
Lost4 (5)1 (1)
Goals Scored17 (5)31 (1)
Total Shots For (p/match)12.5 (5)12 (8)
Shots on Target For (p/m)3.9 (9)5.2 (3)
Goals Conceded12 (1)16 (4)
Total Shots Against (p/m)10.4 (1)10.5 (2)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3.5 (2)3.2 (1)
Clean Sheets5 (1)3 (2)
Over 2.55 (10)8 (5)
Under 2.58 (1)5 (5)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.33 (5)0.46 (1)
Shots On Concession Rate0.26 (3)0.39 (8)

Statistics Comment

Perth have a conversion rate that is off the charts. They both have tight defences, leading the league in defensive stats. Against the stats that support the under I envisage a very open end to end match and Perth have plenty of momentum.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth to win at 2.5+ for 2 units

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.9+ for 1 unit


Western Sydney v Adelaide

Fri 18th January, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Western Sydney did everything but win in Perth last week leading 2-0 after 67 minutes and 3-2 after 77 minutes only to fall to a couple of late sucker punches and go down 3-4. They were without Alex Baumjohann, Oriol Riera and Josh Risdon in recent matches and now add Jordan O’Doherty and Keanu Baccus to the list of absentees.

To put that into perspective combined those players have started a combined for 57 of the 130 outfield starters this season. It is going to be a big ask for this team to put together a string of consistent performances. However, the signing of Kwame Yeboah already looks like a master stroke as he finished his first starting appearance with a goal and 2 assists.

Adelaide have been very inconsistent with their last 6 matches split 2W 2D and 2L. They were right in the game with Sydney and could have pinched a point at the death bar a fantastic save from Sydney keeper Andrew Redmayne. Doubt there will be any personnel changes from last week with no fresh injury or suspension worries.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsWSWAdelaide
Points9 (8)19 (6)
Win2 (8)5 (6)
Draw3 (4)4 (1)
Lost8 (8)4 (5)
Goals Scored17 (5)17 (5)
Total Shots For (p/match)15.8 (2)14.8 (3)
Shots on Target For (p/m)5.3 (2)4.5 (6)
Goals Conceded27 (8)15 (3)
Total Shots Against (p/m)13.8 (6)12.2 (5)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)5 (7)4.2 (5)
Clean Sheets2 (6)3 (2)
Over 2.58 (5)6 (9)
Under 2.55 (5)7 (2)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.25 (9)0.29 (7)
Shots On Concession Rate0.42 (10)0.27 (4)

Statistics Comment

The Wanderers create plenty so with a new sharp shooter may improve their poor conversion rate over the 2nd half of the season. At home they have won just 1 from 7 with 5 losses.

Adelaide continue to roll along in a midtable position. Their conversion rate is also something that needs improvement.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Adelaide at 2.3+ for a risk of 2 units

Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners

Sat 12th January, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington have come through 3 road games in 12 days drawing at Victory, Adelaide and beating Western Sydney. They are now undefeated in 7 winning 4 of those and currently sit 6th with a 7-point buffer to the Jets in 7th. They are without Alex Rufer and Mandi Sosa suspended however they have a deep squad and in Sarpreet Singh arguably the most exciting young player in the tournament.

Central Coast continue to struggle, though in fairness to them they were on the way to beating Sydney away prior to Kalifa Cisse getting himself sent-off. He is suspended here and joined by Aiden O’Neill who along with Matt Millar have been the Mariners best this season.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsWelCC
Points19 (5)2 (10)
Win5 (5)0 (10)
Draw4 (1)2 (6)
Lost3 (2)9 (10)
Goals Scored17 (4)10 (10)
Total Shots For (p/match)11.7 (7)10 (10)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4 (7)3 (10)
Goals Conceded15 (5)29 (10)
Total Shots Against (p/m)16.5 (10)16.3 (9)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)5.1 (8)6.5 (10)
Clean Sheets3 (2)0 (10)
Over 2.56 (7)7 (3)
Under 2.56 (3)4 (8)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.35 (5)0.3 (7)
Shots On Concession Rate0.25 (2)0.41 (10)

Statistics Comment

Wellington still give up too many opportunities to their opposition but in part that is due to their counter attacking style where they sit and absorb plenty of pressure. Wellington have averaged 0.9 points per game in the last 3 seasons but 1.6 points per game this season.

Central Coast are 0-1-5 from 6 away matches this season and 3-9-16 since the start of the 2016/17 season. Their statistics tell no lies as they struggle in every facet of the game.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Back Wellington -1 in the Asian Handicap market at 1.8+ for a risk of 2 units


Sydney v Adelaide United

Sun 13th January, 6:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Whilst they still sit 2nd on the table I can’t help but think Sydney are at somewhat of a crossroad in their season. Three ago they were lucking to collect the 3 points at home to the Roar after their opponents missed a late penalty. Subsequently they were on their way to losing to the Mariners at home prior to benefitting by the Cisse send-off and finally were completely dominated in Perth losing 1-3, a result more concerning given their recent dominance of the Glory.

Adelaide come off the back of a resounding 2-0 win over their greatest rivals Victory midweek. They get Vince Lia and Mirko Boland back into the squad and are starting to build into a very competitive team.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsSydneyAdelaide
Points23 (2)19 (5)
Win7 (2)5 (5)
Draw2 (6)4 (1)
Lost3 (2)3 (2)
Goals Scored24 (2)16 (6)
Total Shots For (p/match)12.3 (5)15.2 (3)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4.9 (3)4.8 (5)
Goals Conceded16 (6)13 (2)
Total Shots Against (p/m)11.1 (4)12.2 (5)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3.7 (3)4.2 (5)
Clean Sheets2 (6)3 (2)
Over 2.59 (1)5 (9)
Under 2.53 (10)7 (1)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.41 (2)0.28 (8)
Shots On Concession Rate0.36 (7)0.26 (4)

Statistics Comment

Nothing much between these teams statistically. Their conversion rates are at either end of the spectrum and realistically the variance between their positions on the ladder.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Sydney at 2.1 or less for a risk of 2 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)


Perth v Western Sydney

Sun 13th January, 7:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Perth have won 3/3 over the Christmas and New Year period including a resounding 3-1 win over Sydney. They miss Chris Ikonomidis but with Diego Costa continuing to gain match fitness they are proving themselves hard to beat and are now at full strength Ikonomidis aside. Typical of Tony Popovic coached teams they are hard to break down and they are now 6 points clear in the race for the premiership.

Western Sydney are improving and yet the results are not coming which is visibly frustrating the team. They have picked up just 1 point in their last 5 matches a concern when 4 of them have been at home. They lost Oriol Riera and their best player Alex Baumjohann to injury out of the Wellington match, so the addition of Kwame Yeboah is timely.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsPerthWSW
Points29 (1)9 (8)
Win9 (1)2 (8)
Draw2 (6)3 (4)
Lost1 (1)7 (8)
Goals Scored27 (1)14 (8)
Total Shots For (p/match)11.8 (6)16.3 (2)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4.9 (3)5.3 (2)
Goals Conceded13 (2)23 (8)
Total Shots Against (p/m)10.5 (1)13.8 (7)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3 (1)4.8 (6)
Clean Sheets3 (2)2 (6)
Over 2.57 (3)7 (3)
Under 2.55 (5)5 (5)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.46 (1)0.22 (10)
Shots On Concession Rate0.36 (6)0.4 (9)

Statistics Comment

The Perth statistics resoundingly back up their dominance on the table and it will be scary if they start to produce more chances.

Western Sydney should turn their season around at some stage as they are above the mean in several key areas however it is seemingly going to take to time.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Perth to win at 1.7+ for 3 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Western Sydney Wanderers v Wellington Phoenix

Tuesday 8th January, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Western Sydney put in their best performance of the season on Saturday at home to the Victory, but ultimately still lost 1-2. They had plenty of good chances squandered in the most part by Oriol Riera. Defensively they looked a much more balanced team with Tarek Elrich on the left and young Tate Russell made a fantastic debut.

Wellington were under pressure for most of the 90 minutes in Adelaide, particularly after the sending off of Mandi. They have now lost just once away from home and have are on an unbeaten run of 6 matches.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsWSWWellington
Points9 (8)16 (5)
Win2 (8)4 (5)
Draw3 (4)4 (1)
Lost6 (7)3 (4)
Goals Scored12 (8)14 (5)
Total Shots For (p/match)15.6 (2)11.5 (8)
Shots on Target For (p/m)5.1 (3)3.8 (8)
Goals Conceded20 (8)13 (4)
Total Shots Against (p/m)13.7 (7)15.9 (9)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)4.6 (7)4.8 (8)
Clean Sheets2 (5)3 (2)
Over 2.56 (5)5 (8)
Under 2.55 (5)6 (2)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.21 (10)0.33 (5)
Shots On Concession Rate0.39 (9)0.25 (2)

Statistics Comment

Western Sydney are inconsistent in their statistics but fall down in both the conversion rate of the chances they create and the concession rate of which they concede goals. Wellington are over-achieving compared to their stats.

That isn’t to say their current run is not deserved or will change necessarily end but they do give up a lot of chances and have been lucky not to concede at a higher rate.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Western Sydney to win at 2.0+ for a risk of 1 unit (max risk of 3 units)

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 2.1+ for a risk of 2 units (max risk of 3 units)


Adelaide v Victory

Wednesday 9th January, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Adelaide were held to a goalless draw at home to Wellington on the weekend, a result that would have disappointed them given all the chances they created and the benefit of an extra man for 25 minutes.

Victory were below their best in a scrappy 2-1 win at Western Sydney. They have been below their best for the last 3 matches without Keisuke Honda, which is a concern for the longer term. Thankfully Ola Toivonen continues to improve and gives them an incredibly strong focal point.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsAdelaideVictory
Points16 (5)23 (2)
Win4 (5)7 (2)
Draw4 (1)2 (6)
Lost3 (4)2 (2)
Goals Scored14 (5)24 (1)
Total Shots For (p/match)14.7 (3)12.5 (5)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4.5 (6)5.5 (1)
Goals Conceded13 (4)12 (2)
Total Shots Against (p/m)11.8 (5)13.1 (6)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)4 (4)4.5 (6)
Clean Sheets2 (5)3 (2)
Over 2.55 (8)7 (3)
Under 2.56 (2)4 (7)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.29 (8)0.4 (3)
Shots On Concession Rate0.3 (4)0.24 (1)

Statistics Comment

As noted previously Adelaide are still struggling for home consistency with their record since the Grand Final win of 2015/16 season, 10 wins 12 draws and 12 losses having kept just 6 clean sheets, with the clean sheet on Saturday their first clean sheet in 12 matches.
Victory are still proving lethal in attack and slowly improving in defence.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Victory Draw No Bet at 1.9+ to win for 2 units (where 3 units is a maximum bet)

Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix

Saturday 5th January, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

This will be Adelaide’s 3rd game in 8 days and after a disappointing home draw with Western Sydney they were lucky to win 2-1 away to Newcastle with both goals coming against the run of play. Jordan Elsey returns to the centre of defence which is a bonus.

Wellington are undefeated in 5 and have play their 3rd game in 12 days after easing to a 4-1 win over Brisbane at home they were good value for their 1-1 draw at Victory. They have a complete squad and have strengthened with the signing of former Irish International striker Cillian Sheridan to add depth to an already deep squad.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsAdlWel
Points15 (5)15 (5)
Win4 (5)4 (5)
Draw3 (2)3 (2)
Lost3 (4)3 (4)
Goals Scored14 (4)14 (4)
Total Shots For (p/match)13 (3)12.2 (5)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4.2 (6)4 (7)
Goals Conceded13 (5)13 (5)
Total Shots Against (p/m)12.6 (6)14.3 (7)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)4.2 (5)4.6 (7)
Clean Sheets1 (7)2 (4)
Over 2.55 (5)5 (5)
Under 2.55 (3)5 (3)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.33 (6)0.35 (5)
Shots On Concession Rate0.31 (5)0.28 (3)

Statistics Comment

There is nothing, literally nothing between these teams with identical records through 10 rounds.

As noted previously Adelaide are still struggling for home consistency with their record since the Grand Final win of 2015/16 season, 10 wins 11 draws and 12 losses having kept just 5 clean sheets and are without a clean sheet in their last 11 matches.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Adelaide at 2.1 or less for a risk of 2 units


Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets

Sunday 6th January, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

City have impressed with a strong performance in the Melbourne derby for a 1-1 draw followed up with a comfortable 2-0 win at Western Sydney. Importantly Lachlan Wales bagged an impressive goal to solidify his position and provide a bit of confidence. They lose Rostyn Griffiths to suspension but he should be ably replaced by Osama Malik.

Newcastle are fronting up for their 4th game in 13 days. They started with a come from behind victory in the F3 derby before throwing away points at home to Adelaide (1-2) and Brisbane (2-2) after conceding late games in both. They are improving but it is a big ask to perform again after such a heavy schedule.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsCityNew
Points17 (4)12 (7)
Win5 (4)3 (7)
Draw2 (6)3 (2)
Lost3 (4)5 (7)
Goals Scored13 (6)12 (9)
Total Shots For (p/match)11.5 (8)17.6 (1)
Shots on Target For (p/m)3.7 (9)5 (2)
Goals Conceded9 (1)15 (7)
Total Shots Against (p/m)9.9 (1)11 (3)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3.7 (2)4.1 (4)
Clean Sheets4 (1)2 (7)
Over 2.53 (10)5 (5)
Under 2.57 (1)6 (2)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.35 (4)0.22 (10)
Shots On Concession Rate0.24 (1)0.33 (7)

Statistics Comment

City have not been producing enough clear chances but converting at a reasonable rate to compensate. What they have been doing is defending incredibly well and have, at least for now the best keeper in the comp.

Newcastle are slowly, very slowly clicking into gear. They have much to improve on particularly that conversion rate and turning those shots on target into better quality chances.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – City at 1.9+ to win for 3 units


Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory

Sunday 6th January, 7:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Coach John Aloisi resigned on the back of the 1-4 loss to Wellington before a pair of encouraging performances away to Sydney losing 1-2 but missing a late penalty and twice coming from behind to draw 2-2 at Newcastle. The players have come out and admitted their performances were not good enough and cost Aloisi his role.

They are improving and get Daniel Bowles back from suspension although the performance of his young replacement Aaron Reardon may see him come back via the bench.

Perth lost 1-4 to Sydney before easing to a comfortable 4-1 win at the Mariners. With Shane Lowry back they are at full strength bar missing Chris Ikonomidis who is with the Socceroos. They setup as the perfect away team and although I was happy to risk them last week they are not particularly vulnerable.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsBnePer
Points7 (9)23 (1)
Win1 (9)7 (1)
Draw4 (1)2 (6)
Lost6 (9)1 (1)
Goals Scored13 (7)20 (2)
Total Shots For (p/match)12 (6)11.2 (9)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4 (7)4.6 (4)
Goals Conceded21 (9)10 (2)
Total Shots Against (p/m)15.3 (9)10.9 (2)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)5.3 (9)3.1 (1)
Clean Sheets2 (7)3 (2)
Over 2.57 (1)5 (5)
Under 2.54 (7)5 (3)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.3 (7)0.43 (1)
Shots On Concession Rate0.36 (8)0.32 (6)

Statistics Comment

Brisbane have little by way of positive statistics from the season so far and will be reliant on the bounce effect of a new manager.

Perth are very strong but still need to increase their attacking output to be less reliant on their conversion rate.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth at 2.2+ for a risk of 2 units

Sydney FC v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 29th December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney bounced back to their best last week comfortably accounting for Perth. It was a much-improved performance and one they will look to back up against an opposition that has been very poor of late.

They lose Rhyan Grant to the Socceroos but have plenty of cover with Paulo Retre likely to drop back to the defensive position.

Brisbane were very poor in Wellington. They welcome back Eric Bautheac and Stefan Mauk who are both big inclusions. They are in danger of being dropped from the race to the Top 6 and need to improve quickly.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsSydBne
Points17 (3)6 (9)
Win4 (3)1 (9)
Draw2 (7)3 (1)
Lost2 (2)5 (9)
Goals Scored16 (2)10 (8)
Total Shots For (p/match)11 (8)11.1 (7)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4 (6)3.7 (9)
Goals Conceded10 (3)17 (9)
Total Shots Against (p/m)11.1 (4)13.8 (8)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3.6 (3)4.7 (8)
Clean Sheets3 (4)3 (4)
Over 2.55 (2)4 (3)
Under 2.53 (9)5 (4)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.44 (1)0.3 (7)
Shots On Concession Rate0.31 (5)0.4 (10)

Statistics Comment

The statistics around Brisbane are consistent with their position on the table. Sydney have a conversion rate that is likely to revert closer to the long term mean of 31% and as such they need to increase their attempt creation.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sydney -1.0 in the Asian Handicap market at 1.7+ for 3 units


Newcastle Jets v Adelaide United

Sunday 30th December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

The Jets came from behind to beat the Mariners in the F3 Derby 2-1. It was a much-improved performance without being the end product. The return of Roy O’Donovan gave them more direction in attack and they will continue to improve.

Adelaide were thankful to Nikola Mileusnic who scored a couple of very good goals on his return to the team. They must do without Jordan Elsey who was red carded and must cope with a very quick 4-day turnaround.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsNewAdl
Points11 (7)12 (6)
Win2 (7)3 (5)
Draw3 (1)3 (1)
Lost4 (7)3 (4)
Goals Scored9 (9)12 (5)
Total Shots For (p/match)15.6 (1)13 (3)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4.3 (3)4 (6)
Goals Conceded11 (5)12 (6)
Total Shots Against (p/m)10.2 (2)11 (3)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3.8 (4)3.8 (4)
Clean Sheets3 (4)2 (9)
Over 2.52 (10)3 (7)
Under 2.57 (1)6 (2)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.23 (10)0.33 (5)
Shots On Concession Rate0.32 (6)0.35 (8)

Statistics Comment

The Jets are performing better than their position suggests and as noted last week are likely to improve up the table now that they have a strong target man up front. Adelaide have been reasonably consistent albeit with much improvement to come.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle at 2.2+ for 1 unit

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 1.9+ for 2 units


Central Coast v Perth Glory

Monday 31st December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Central Coast are still winless and bereft of confidence having lost the F3 derby from a winning position. They need to improve rapidly to have any hope of a top-6 finish.

They will welcome the return of Tommy Oar but still miss Ross McCormack which reduces their potency in attack.

Perth were quite poor in their home loss to Sydney and now miss their best defender Shane Lowry who is suspended and their most influential attacker in Chris Ikonomidis who is on Asian Cup duty.

They have added Alex Grant and Diego Castro but question marks exist over whether they are ready for this match.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsCCPer
Points2 (10)20 (1)
Win0 (10)6 (1)
Draw3 (2)2 (7)
Lost6 (10)0 (1)
Goals Scored7 (10)16 (2)
Total Shots For (p/match)10.4 (10)10.6 (9)
Shots on Target For (p/m)3.2 (10)4.2 (4)
Goals Conceded20 (10)9 (1)
Total Shots Against (p/m)15.4 (10)11.1 (4)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)5.6 (10)3.2 (1)
Clean Sheets1 (10)4 (1)
Over 2.54 (3)3 (7)
Under 2.55 (4)5 (4)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.24 (9)0.42 (2)
Shots On Concession Rate0.4 (9)0.31 (4)

Statistics Comment

The Mariners table position is backed up by their shocking stats with improvement at both ends of the park necessary.

Perth are doing well on the ladder but their stats, particularly attacking output suggest they may be over-achieving at this stage of the season. The head to head stats in Gosford are a concern for Perth as they have won 1 of 19 with just 2 draws and 16 losses.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Central Coast at 4.0+ for a risk of 1.5 units

Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 22nd December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

City did well last week winning 2-0 in Adelaide. It was a comfortable win that perhaps said more about the lack of cutting edge offered by Adelaide as the sturdy defence offered by City. This will be a completely different type of test and given they have alternated wins and losses over the last 6 rounds they need to find more consistency.

Broken record time but once again Victory were irrepressible going forward and heart attack material at the back last week in their 4-2 win at Brisbane. There were aided by the 20th minute brain explosion from Eric Bautheac but would have won anyway.

Interesting dynamic this week with James Troisi, Thomas Deng and to a lesser extent Terry Antonis all being spoken of as potential Asian Cup squad members missing out.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsCityVictory
Points13 (4)18 (2)
Win4 (3)6 (1)
Draw1 (9)0 (10)
Lost3 (4)2 (2)
Goals Scored10 (4)20 (1)
Total Shots For (p/match)11.8 (7)12.8 (4)
Shots on Target For (p/m)3.9 (6)6.1 (1)
Goals Conceded8 (2)9 (3)
Total Shots Against (p/m)9.4 (1)12 (6)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3.6 (4)4.4 (6)
Clean Sheets3 (1)3 (1)
Over 2.53 (7)6 (1)
Under 2.55 (2)2 (10)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.32 (4)0.41 (3)
Shots On Concession Rate0.28 (2)0.26 (1)

Statistics Comment

The most dynamic attack against one of the best defences. The Victory shots on target figure of 6.1 is the on target to be the highest figure in my OPTA data stretching back to the start of the 2015/16 season. There have been 26 Melbourne Derbies with 21 recording over 2.5 goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.7+ for 3 units


Central Coast v Newcastle Jets

Saturday 23rd December, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Central Coast are in danger of tailing off in the competition and given they are 9 points off the top 6 it is really getting towards must win time. They didn’t look like a desperate team last week after being outplayed by Wellington and have now lost 6 in a row.

Newcastle have been performing well despite the results. They regain Roy O’Donovan for this match which may help their attacking output, although he can hardly be expected to fire first match back.
They were the dominant team last week in their 0-2 home loss to Perth and will likely improve rapidly now with a focal point in attack.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsCCNew
Points2 (10)8 (7)
Win0 (10)2 (7)
Draw2 (2)2 (2)
Lost6 (10)4 (7)
Goals Scored6 (10)7 (9)
Total Shots For (p/match)10.8 (9)15.1 (1)
Shots on Target For (p/m)3 (10)4 (4)
Goals Conceded18 (10)10 (5)
Total Shots Against (p/m)15 (9)10.5 (2)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)5.4 (10)3.6 (4)
Clean Sheets0 (10)2 (4)
Over 2.54 (3)2 (10)
Under 2.54 (5)6 (1)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.25 (8)0.22 (10)
Shots On Concession Rate0.42 (10)0.34 (7)

Statistics Comment

The Mariners position on the table is sadly a true reflection of their stats and they can’t suggest that they have been unlucky. On the other hand Newcastle are building the profile of a team that is much stronger than their table position implies.

The attacking conversion rate will lift now with Roy O’Donovan back, which is arguably all they have needed. There have been 44 Derbies of which 30 have been under 2.5 goals and there have been 16 draws (36%) in those 44 derbies with the teams splitting the other 28 matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 1.9+ for 2 units


Adelaide United v WSW

Wednesday 26th December, 7:50pm AEDT

Adelaide once again struggled to break down City although City keeper, and former Adelaide hero, Eugene Galekovic did produce some fantastic saves. They will almost certainly be on the lookout for a new striker come the January transfer window with Besart Berisha mentioned in places, although I would highly doubt that.

Western Sydney were all over Sydney last week prior to the Vedran Janjetovic brain snap and sending off. From that point they were completely dominated, and it is a big concern that manager Marcus Babbel removed their best player to get the back-up keeper on.

It is textbook to remove the attacking midfielder in such a scenario but showed a real lack of feel for the team who without Alex Baumjohann were unable to keep the ball for more than 1 or 2 passes.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsAdlWSW
Points11 (5)8 (7)
Win3 (5)2 (7)
Draw2 (2)2 (2)
Lost3 (4)4 (7)
Goals Scored10 (4)9 (6)
Total Shots For (p/match)12.9 (3)14.6 (2)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4 (4)4.5 (2)
Goals Conceded10 (5)14 (9)
Total Shots Against (p/m)10.6 (3)15 (9)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3.4 (2)5.3 (9)
Clean Sheets1 (9)2 (4)
Over 2.53 (7)4 (3)
Under 2.55 (2)4 (5)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.31 (5)0.25 (8)
Shots On Concession Rate0.37 (9)0.33 (6)

Statistics Comment

Adelaide are doing well on most markers except for their inability to keep a clean sheet. Their home record is a concern. Since the Grand Final win of 2015/16 season, they are 10 wins 10 draws and 12 losses having kept just 5 clean sheets and are without a clean sheet in their last 10 matches.

Western Sydney are poor at the back conceding far too many chances and need to tighten up to allow their team to build on their good creativity.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Adelaide at 2.2 or less for a risk of 2 units

Wellington v Central Coast

Saturday 15th December, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington destroyed Perth last week and have perhaps bounced back to the potential they showed in the first couple of games of the season. They have certainly improved with Sarpeet Singh providing a cutting edge and Roy Krishna now firing in the goals.

The Mariners really have hit rock bottom. They have lost 5 on the trot and are yet to dominate any team this season. On top of anything they lose Ben Kennedy and Tom Hiariej for this match.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsWelCC
Points8 (7)2 (10)
Win2 (6)0 (10)
Draw2 (2)2 (2)
Lost3 (5)5 (10)
Goals Scored7 (7)6 (10)
Total Shots For (p/match)12.1 (7)10.1 (9)
Shots on Target For (p/m)3.7 (7)3.1 (10)
Goals Conceded11 (8)16 (10)
Total Shots Against (p/m)14.7 (9)15.6 (10)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)5 (8)5.4 (10)
Clean Sheets1 (8)0 (10)
Over 2.54 (2)4 (2)
Under 2.53 (7)3 (7)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.27 (8)0.27 (7)
Shots On Concession Rate0.31 (7)0.42 (10)

Statistics Comment

Wellington have been battling away and trying. Central Coast have been trying but have nothing to show for it. Whilst both are low on most of the stats Wellington are just better.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Wellington at 2.1+ for 2 units


WSW v Sydney FC

Saturday 15th December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Western Sydney have beaten only Central Coast and Wellington this season and still have lots of work to do defensively but they are starting to put it together and in Alex Baumjohann they have the most gifted attacking midfielder in the league.

Sydney are struggling. They have been good in patches but as was the case last week can be horribly exposed in defence. Their creation of good chances is a sore point and they must certainly add another striker in the up-coming January transfer window.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsWSWSyd
Points8 (7)11 (3)
Win2 (6)3 (3)
Draw2 (2)2 (2)
Lost3 (5)2 (2)
Goals Scored8 (5)11 (3)
Total Shots For (p/match)15.7 (1)9.6 (10)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4.9 (2)3.7 (7)
Goals Conceded11 (8)8 (3)
Total Shots Against (p/m)13.7 (7)12 (5)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)5.3 (9)3.7 (3)
Clean Sheets2 (2)2 (2)
Over 2.53 (5)4 (2)
Under 2.54 (2)3 (7)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.24 (10)0.42 (1)
Shots On Concession Rate0.3 (4)0.31 (5)

Statistics Comment

Sydney are producing nothing but defending well. Wanderers are producing plenty but defending poorly. A dichotomy of statistics likely to produce an interesting match.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) WSW to Win at 2.8+ for 1 units

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 Goals at 1.8+ for 2 units


Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory

Friday 14th December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Brisbane return home after 2 weeks on the road and are slowly improving without getting any results. They have gained 5 of 9 points at home but against Central Coast, Wellington and City who are not strong away teams. Equally they are not dominant in statistics at home.

Victory are rolling having won 5 in a row after starting the season with back to back defeats. They have now scored 12-2 in the last 4 rounds. They still have work to do defensively and will be without Georg Niedermeier in this match.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsBneVic
Points6 (6)15 (2)
Win1 (9)5 (1)
Draw3 (1)0 (10)
Lost3 (5)2 (2)
Goals Scored7 (7)16 (1)
Total Shots For (p/match)12.7 (5)13 (4)
Shots on Target For (p/m)3.6 (9)6.4 (1)
Goals Conceded9 (7)7 (1)
Total Shots Against (p/m)14.1 (8)12.9 (6)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)4.6 (7)4.3 (6)
Clean Sheets2 (2)3 (1)
Over 2.53 (5)5 (1)
Under 2.54 (2)2 (10)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.28 (5)0.36 (3)
Shots On Concession Rate0.28 (2)0.23 (1)

Statistics Comment

Victory create quality chances and are very good going forward. I’m like a broken record saying they still have work to do defensively, but with such a strong attack they will likely be able to cope.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Melbourne Victory at 1.9+ for 2 units

Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United

Saturday 8th December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

What can we say about the Victory win last week but wow. They were incredibly dynamic particularly their threat on goal. As I suggested prior to Round 1 they are definitely the team to beat this year, but it is worth noting that the Wanderers were very bad last week with their defence once again showing what not to do. Still the Victory are humming and with their defence starting to look more stable they are very hard to beat.

Adelaide have started the season very well building on a strong defence and central midfield to unleash their wide attackers and in particularly Craig Goodwin who was again their best player last week. They could have had 4 or 5 v the Roar except for some bad luck. So, they certainly can’t be taken lightly.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsVictoryAdelaide
Points12 (2)11 (3)
Win4 (1)3 (3)
Draw0 (10)2 (2)
Lost2 (4)1 (2)
Goals Scored14 (1)10 (3)
Total Shots For (p/match)13.8 (2)13.3 (4)
Shots on Target For (p/m)6.8 (1)4.3 (5)
Goals Conceded7 (3)6 (2)
Total Shots Against (p/m)12.3 (6)11.7 (5)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)4.3 (6)3.5 (3)
Clean Sheets2 (1)1 (5)
Over 2.55 (1)3 (3)
Under 2.51 (10)3 (2)
Shot Conversion rate0.34 (4)0.38 (3)
Shot Concession rate0.27 (3)0.29 (4)

Statistics Comment

Both teams with above average statistics confirming their positions on the table. At home since the start of the 2016/17 season 25 of 32 Victory matches have been over 2.5 goals and despite the rivalry between these 2 the last 10 in Melbourne have seen 8 over 2.5.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.7+ for 3 units


Perth Glory v Melbourne City

Saturday 8th December, 10:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Perth were terrible in Wellington last week, escaping with a point thanks to a late surge after the Phoenix went down to 10 men. They had a decent record in the “distance derby” so it is hard to put it down to the travel. The question we now must ask is was their previous form or last week’s form a true indication of them? I’m leaning to it being an aberration at this point though with wins in the 93rd and 95th minutes and last weeks late equaliser my confidence in them is waning. Still they have a fantastic squad to freshen things up.

I was against City last week and to be fair I got it wrong. That said they had a poor defensive error to help them get the ball rolling and the Jets were on top heading into half time before a world class goal from Luke Brattan on the stroke of half time basically finished it as a contest. They once again leave out Fornaroli for disciplinary or fitness reasons, he has failed a skin fold test apparently, amazing.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsPerthCity
Points14 (1)10 (5)
Win4 (1)3 (3)
Draw2 (2)1 (9)
Lost0 (1)2 (4)
Goals Scored12 (2)8 (5)
Total Shots For (p/match)12 (7)13.3 (4)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4.5 (3)4.8 (2)
Goals Conceded7 (3)7 (3)
Total Shots Against (p/m)10.5 (2)9.7 (1)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3.2 (1)3.8 (4)
Clean Sheets1 (5)2 (1)
Over 2.53 (3)3 (3)
Under 2.53 (2)3 (2)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.44 (2)0.28 (7)
Shots On Concession Rate0.37 (9)0.3 (5)

Statistics Comment

Both defences are going well. Perth have been converting their limited number of chances well, in most part due to the quality of the chances created so any reversion to a league wide mean of just 31% may not occur. On the other hand, City are not converting well and if we consider that 3 of their 8 goals have been from positions that we would normally expect 1 to be converted the rate would be as low as 20.7%. What they wouldn’t give for a predatory striker!

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN)  Perth to win at 2.1+ for 2 units


Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar

Sunday 9th December, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Newcastle were ok last week despite being beaten 0-3 at City. They are missing any cutting edge up front and with Ronald Vargas out injured could suffer further as Jair has yet to really catch the eye. Just 2 more weeks of suspension left for Roy O’Donovan and the jets fans must be counting the days.

Brisbane were far from disgraced in Adelaide in a crazy match. Adelaide could have had more but so too could have Brisbane. They managed to work into good areas and had 11 shots attempts from inside the box the 3rd highest of any away team this season. I don’t expect as open a match here.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsNewcastleBrisbane
Points5 (7)6 (6)
Win1 (6)1 (6)
Draw2 (2)3 (1)
Lost3 (7)2 (4)
Goals Scored5 (9)7 (6)
Total Shots For (p/match)13.8 (2)13 (6)
Shots on Target For (p/m)3.8 (6)3.7 (7)
Goals Conceded8 (7)7 (3)
Total Shots Against (p/m)11.5 (3)13.8 (7)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3.8 (4)4.7 (7)
Clean Sheets1 (5)2 (1)
Over 2.52 (10)3 (3)
Under 2.54 (1)3 (2)
Shots On Conversion Rate0.22 (9)0.32 (5)
Shots On Concession Rate0.35 (8)0.25 (1)

Statistics Comment

Neither team is doing particularly well nor particularly poorly. Brisbane still have some work to cut down the number of opportunities they are presenting to opposition teams. Their number 1 ranked in concession of goals from shots on target and certainly can’t rely on Jamie Young to keep bailing them out as good a goalkeeper as he is. The Jets have work to do at both ends of the ground and very low on their conversion rate.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Newcastle at 2.2 or less for a risk of 2 units

 BACK (WIN) Under 2.5 Goals 1.9+ for a risk of 2 units.

Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 1st December, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Victory were good enough to beat Sydney 2-1 on the road last week and yet still weren’t firing on all cylinders. Their weakest area in the first 5 rounds was their defence but that looked to be more solid last week and with Ola Toivonen getting fitter they will only continue to improve.

Western Sydney lost 0-2 to Newcastle at Homebush in a match played on a terrible pitch. This didn’t help either team and the match whilst high on chances was low on quality. Western Sydney were left bemoaning key misses from Abraham Majok and Oriol Riera and really could have finished with a draw.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsVicWSW
Points9 (2)5 (7)
Win3 (2)1 (6)
Draw0 (10)2 (2)
Lost2 (5)2 (5)
Goals Scored10 (2)6 (5)
Total Shots For (p/match)12.8 (5)16 (1)
Shots on Target For (p/m)6 (1)4.4 (4)
Goals Conceded7 (6)7 (6)
Total Shots Against (p/m)12 (6)13.8 (8)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)4.2 (7)4.6 (8)
Clean Sheets1 (3)1 (3)
Over 2.54 (1)2 (5)
Under 2.51 (10)3 (2)
Shots on target conversion (%)0.33 (5)0.27 (7)
Shots on target concession (%)0.33 (6)0.3 (4)

Statistics Comment

Both teams need to improve defensively whilst Western Sydney need to become more accurate with their shooting which will help improve their shot conversion rate.

In Melbourne, Victory have won 5 of 9 with 3 draws and 1 win to Western Sydney. Overall 10 of the 18 head to head contests.
Victory have struggled at Docklands having drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 6.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.6+ for 3 units


Wellington Pheonix v Perth Glory

Sunday 2nd December, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington lost at home to Adelaide 1-3 last week despite taking a 1-0 advantage early on. I have a very healthy respect for coach Mark Rudan but thought he erred in dropping Sarpreet Singh prior to last week and would think that he should reinstate him to the starting 11 as he offers an X-Factor that most of his teammates do not.

Perth continue to play well at both ends of the park even though they needed a 95th minute winner to shake off the Central Coast 3-2 in Perth last week. For the most part I thought Perth were in control of the match and really should have won more easily. They lose Alex Grant which is a big loss. Dino Djulbic and Matt Spiranovic are experienced replacements who will be keen to make an impact but not at the same level as Grant is playing at. They have their own X-Factor and the form player of the competition in Chris Ikonomidis who will terrorise this Wellington defence.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsWelPer
Points4 (9)13 (1)
Win1 (6)4 (1)
Draw1 (7)1 (7)
Lost3 (9)0 (1)
Goals Scored3 (10)11 (1)
Total Shots For (p/match)11.2 (8)12.6 (6)
Shots on Target For (p/m)3 (9)4.8 (2)
Goals Conceded9 (9)6 (5)
Total Shots Against (p/m)15.8 (9)9.8 (2)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)5.4 (9)3 (1)
Clean Sheets1 (3)1 (3)
Over 2.53 (2)3 (2)
Under 2.52 (7)2 (7)
Shots on target conversion (%)0.2 (10)0.46 (1)
Shots on target concession (%)0.33 (6)0.4 (9)

Statistics Comment

The stats look one-sided and a fair representation of the positions on the ladder. What we don’t see there is that Wellington have defended more poorly at home than they have done on the road. This continues the recent trend which has seen them win just 10 of their last 30 home matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Perth to win at 1.9+ for 2 units

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.6+ for 1 unit


Adelaide United v Brisbane Roar

Friday 30th November, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Adelaide were comfortable 3-1 winners in Wellington to continue their strong start to the season. They are still looking for a lethal striker but are defensively strong and coped well without Michael Jakobsen last week so his unavailability this week shouldn’t be a concern.

Brisbane won their first match of the season last week beating City 2-0 in Brisbane. City were awful and have obvious problems which puts a question mark over the form. Still they couldn’t do much more and with Adam Taggart getting another 2 goals they do have a striker in form.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsAdlBne
Points8 (3)6 (6)
Win2 (3)1 (6)
Draw2 (2)3 (1)
Lost1 (2)1 (2)
Goals Scored8 (3)6 (5)
Total Shots For (p/match)11.8 (7)13 (4)
Shots on Target For (p/m)3.6 (6)3.4 (8)
Goals Conceded5 (2)5 (2)
Total Shots Against (p/m)11.4 (5)12.4 (7)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3.2 (3)4 (5)
Clean Sheets1 (3)2 (1)
Over 2.52 (5)2 (5)
Under 2.53 (2)3 (2)
Shots on target conversion (%)0.44 (2)0.35 (4)
Shots on target concession (%)0.31 (5)0.25 (1)

Statistics Comment

Despite not possessing and out and out striker the home team has a high conversion rate. Brisbane have the best defensive concession rate. Adelaide need to improve their home form winning 9, drawing 10 and losing 11 of their last 30 matches. Brisbane meanwhile have done ok away from home winning 10 drawing 9 and losing 10 of their last 29.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Adelaide in the match odds market at 2.2 or less for a risk of 2 units

 BACK (WIN) Under 2.5 goals at 1.9+ for 1 unit

Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United

Saturday 24th November, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington were terrible against City last time out and even worse the week before at home to Western Sydney. This was in direct contrast to the first 2 matches of the season where they seemed to have a new sense of self belief. Their concern is also their home form with just 10 wins from their last 29.

Adelaide are rolling along well despite their loss to Perth in their last match. They are much more dynamic with Stamatelopoulos up front. Craig Goodwin will only improve for his time with the national team and with Ken Ilso gaining fitness they are a team that will be a threat for the season.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsWelAdl
Points4 (7)5 (5)
Win1 (5)1 (5)
Draw1 (7)2 (2)
Lost2 (7)1 (3)
Goals Scored2 (10)5 (5)
Total Shots For (p/match)10.8 (7)10.8 (7)
Shots on Target For (p/m)2.8 (10)3.3 (7)
Goals Conceded6 (8)4 (2)
Total Shots Against (p/m)15.8 (9)11 (4)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)5.5 (9)3 (2)
Clean Sheets1 (2)1 (2)
FTO2.52 (2)1 (8)
FTU2.52 (4)3 (1)
H SOT Conv0.18 (10)0.38 (2)
A SOT Conv0.27 (2)0.33 (5)

Statistics Comment

Both are struggling to produce much offence, Adelaide however have faced Sydney, Newcastle and Perth who are strong defensively. Adelaide are equally strong in defence whilst Wellington have been very lucky just to concede the goals they have given their oppositions conversion rate.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Adelaide to win at 1.9+ for 2 units


Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory

Sunday 25th November, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney are continuing to be hard to break down and are still undefeated this season. They don’t look to be as dominant this season however as they continue to adapt to the departures of Adrian and Bobo. At times they played superbly this season, but they have been flat at points against both Adelaide and Newcastle where they may have been fortunate to come away with draws.

Victory have been consistent in their inconsistency so far but were ominously good against the Mariners in their last match. They were my pre-season tip for the Championship and they will certainly be there at the end of the match provided they stiffen up their suspect defence.

This will be a cracking match and I suspect very open given the speed and ability of both teams.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsSydVic
Points8 (2)6 (4)
Win2 (2)2 (2)
Draw2 (2)0 (10)
Lost0 (1)2 (7)
Goals Scored7 (3)8 (1)
Total Shots For (p/match)8.5 (10)14 (3)
Shots on Target For (p/m)3.8 (5)6.3 (1)
Goals Conceded2 (1)6 (8)
Total Shots Against (p/m)11.8 (5)13.3 (7)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)2.5 (1)4.5 (7)
Clean Sheets2 (1)1 (2)
FTO2.51 (8)3 (1)
FTU2.53 (1)1 (10)
H SOT Conv0.47 (1)0.32 (6)
A SOT Conv0.2 (1)0.33 (5)

Statistics Comment

Diametrically opposed. Sydney have been very strong defensively if a little weak going forward. Victory have been strong in attack but poor in defence.

Sydney have won the last 6 regular season matches against the Victory but in that time the Victory have won a Grand Final and a Preliminary Final in that time.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 Goals at $1.90 for 2 units


Perth Glory v Central Coast

Sunday 11th November, 7:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Perth went to Adelaide and continued their strong start to the season winning 2-0. That win on the road backed up a comfortable home win over Brisbane. They are the form team of the competition thus far and now add Diego Castro to their squad.

The Mariners were disastrous against Victory in their last match and they lose their best player in Tommy Oar for this match. Their central defence has been very poor, and they look to have very few options to strengthen up.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsPerCC
Points10 (1)2 (9)
Win3 (1)0 (8)
Draw1 (7)2 (2)
Lost0 (1)2 (7)
Goals Scored8 (1)3 (8)
Total Shots For (p/match)13.5 (4)9.8 (9)
Shots on Target For (p/m)5.3 (2)3 (8)
Goals Conceded4 (2)9 (10)
Total Shots Against (p/m)9.8 (3)18.3 (10)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3 (2)6.3 (10)
Clean Sheets1 (2)0 (9)
FTO2.52 (2)2 (2)
FTU2.52 (4)2 (4)
H SOT Conv0.38 (3)0.25 (7)
A SOT Conv0.33 (5)0.36 (9)

Statistics Comment

Perth have beaten the Mariners in 6 of their last matches in Perth each of those have been over 2.5 goals. The Mariners are very poor across the board statistically and Perth are very strong. The Mariners have won 3 of their past 30 away matches and lost 17.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Perth -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0+ for 3 units

Newcastle v Sydney

Saturday 10th November, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Newcastle were very good for the first half hour of their clash with the Victory last week but again impotent in front of goal. Their play has deserved more but as noted already this season their attack is still suffering without Roy O’Donovan and as is the norm, import Jair is taking a little time to settle.

Sydney lost the FFA Cup final last Tuesday but bounced back superbly to demolish City in Melbourne. Their passing game is starting to look ominous as is the combination between Ninkovic and Le Fondre. After playing in Adelaide and Melbourne last week they will appreciate the short journey up the freeway to Newcastle where they have won 12 of 20 A-League matches.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsNewSyd
Points1 (10)7 (1)
Win0 (8)2 (1)
Draw1 (4)1 (4)
Lost2 (9)0 (1)
Goals Scored2 (7)6 (1)
Total Shots For (p/match)15.3 (2)9.7 (9)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4 (3)4 (3)
Goals Conceded4 (5)1 (1)
Total Shots Against (p/m)10.7 (4)11.3 (5)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3 (3)2.3 (1)
Clean Sheets0 (7)2 (1)
FTO2.52 (2)1 (6)
FTU2.51 (6)2 (1)
H SOT Conv0.17 (10)0.5 (1)
A SOT Conv0.44 (10)0.14 (1)

Statistics Comment

Sydney are down on their total shots but still strong on their shots on target. Stepping a little deeper on that stat I find that Sydney have recorded 72% of their total shots from inside the box against a league average of 62%. The Jets for instance have recorded just 52% of their shots from inside hence the variance of total shots but the equivalent shots on target.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Sydney to win at $1.90 for 2 units


Adelaide United v Perth Glory

Sunday 11th November, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Great week for Adelaide last week, winning the FFA Cup and following it up with a comfortable 3-0 win at Central Coast. They looked more potent with Apostolos Stamatelopoulos up front and Ken Ilso playing as the number 10, but the real star of the show this season has been Craig Goodwin who scored 2 doubles last week.

Perth are looking ominous heading into week 4 with 7 points and playing good football. They were in complete cruise control last week against the Roar although they did get slightly complacent and had a few scary moments late on. Still they look to have set up well for the season and as noted with their fluid 5-3-2/3-5-2 structure they are a very strong defensively.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsAdlPer
Points5 (3)7 (1)
Win1 (3)2 (1)
Draw2 (1)1 (4)
Lost0 (1)0 (1)
Goals Scored5 (3)6 (1)
Total Shots For (p/match)10.3 (8)13.7 (3)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4 (3)5.3 (1)
Goals Conceded2 (2)4 (5)
Total Shots Against (p/m)10.3 (3)9 (1)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)2.3 (1)3.7 (4)
Clean Sheets1 (2)0 (7)
FTO2.51 (6)2 (2)
FTU2.52 (1)1 (6)
H SOT Conv0.42 (2)0.38 (3)
A SOT Conv0.29 (4)0.36 (8)

Statistics Comment

Two undefeated teams built with solid defence as their cornerstone. Adelaide have been reliant on Craig Goodwin who has 3 of their 5 goals (5 of 7 including the FFA Cup). Despite their lack of a clean sheet this season Perth have been strong defensively.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Under 2.5 Goals at $2.0 for 2 units


Melbourne Victory v Central Coast

Sunday 11th November, 7:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

For the first 30 mins last week it looks as if the Victory would head into the season with 3 straight losses. They have scored 1 of their 5 goals before half time and have really struggled to come out of the blocks this season.

The Mariners were very poor last week losing 0-3 at home to Adelaide. It was their worst performance of the season and they will be desperate to bounce back. They have only won 4 of 21 away against the Victory.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsVicCC
Points3 (7)2 (8)
Win1 (3)0 (8)
Draw0 (10)2 (1)
Lost2 (9)1 (4)
Goals Scored4 (4)2 (7)
Total Shots For (p/match)13 (5)7.7 (10)
Shots on Target For (p/m)5.3 (1)2.3 (10)
Goals Conceded5 (8)5 (8)
Total Shots Against (p/m)12.3 (7)18.7 (10)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)4.3 (6)5.3 (10)
Clean Sheets1 (2)0 (7)
FTO2.53 (1)1 (6)
FTU2.50 (10)2 (1)
H SOT Conv0.25 (6)0.29 (5)
A SOT Conv0.38 (9)0.31 (6)

Statistics Comment

Victory have been good going forward but still very sloppy at the back giving up a lot of very good chances. The Mariners statistics are starting to look all too familiar, poor at both ends of the ground.

The Victory have seen over 2.5 goals in 23 of their last 30 home matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 Goals at $1.50 for 3 units

Wellington v Western Sydney

Saturday 3rd November, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington have started well under new coach Mark Rudan picking up 4 points. As predicted in the season preview, they are a combative team with the players fully committed, not something that has always been the case in Wellington.

That isn’t to say they are without skill as they do have plenty and in Sarpeet Singh one of the best young talents of the competition. I expect them to be hard to breakdown again here and they have no injury concerns.

Western Sydney were ok in round 1 picking up a point on the road to Perth but were outplayed in the most part by Sydney in the derby last week, even if VAR controversy worked against them. As stated last week I have real concerns with their defence and expect them to be exposed again, albeit against a team less dynamic than Sydney were in attack.

They do have one of the most talented attacking midfielders in the competition in Alex Baumjohann but with a lack of finishing touch and a wobbly defence he is going to have to be good to lift them.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsWelWSW
Points4 (1)1 (8)
Win1 (1)0 (5)
Draw1 (4)1 (4)
Lost0 (1)1 (8)
Goals Scored2 (5)1 (9)
Total Shots For (p/match)12.5 (7)13 (4)
Shots on Target For (p/m)3 (7)3 (7)
Goals Conceded1 (1)3 (7)
Total Shots Against (p/m)13.5 (8)15 (9)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)4 (5)5 (7)
Clean Sheets1 (1)0 (4)
FTO2.51 (2)0 (6)
FTU2.51 (6)2 (1)
H SOT Conv33% (4)17% (9)
A SOT Conv13% (1)30% (6)

Statistics Comment

Very similar across the board with the most glaring statistics the low conversion rate of Western Sydney and the low concession rate of Wellington. These will likely revert closer to the mean in due course but could hold here. Last season at home Wellington were 9-4 over 2.5 whilst Wanderers away were 9-3.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Wellington to win at $2.40 for 1 unit

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 Goals at 1.60+ for 2 Units


Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 3rd November, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

The Grand Final re-match, but how that match looks a distant memory after 2 rounds with the Jets picking up 1 point and the Victory getting nothing.

Newcastle are missing Roy O’Donovan up front with Jason Hoffman doing an honest job but struggling playing out of position. They have been better than the results read maintaining a reasonably strong defensive block and being unlucky in 2 of the 3 goals they have conceded thus far.

The Victory have been creating plenty of chances but similarly missing the that killer instinct in front of goal. They are without Kenny Athiu and Ola Toivonen here and it will be interesting to see who starts up front without a real striker to call on. The big problem for Melbourne has been their defence with 4 of the 5 goals they have conceded this season coming about from defensive errors. Looking back on my notes from last season and it was similar, particularly early in the season there. They are certainly vulnerable at the moment.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsNewVic
Points1 (8)0 (10)
Win0 (5)0 (5)
Draw1 (4)0 (10)
Lost1 (8)2 (10)
Goals Scored2 (5)3 (2)
Total Shots For (p/match)13 (4)14.5 (3)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4 (4)6.5 (1)
Goals Conceded3 (7)5 (10)
Total Shots Against (p/m)11 (6)8.5 (1)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)3 (4)4.5 (6)
Clean Sheets0 (4)0 (4)
FTO2.51 (2)2 (1)
FTU2.51 (6)0 (10)
H SOT Conv25% (7)23% (8)
A SOT Conv50% (9)56% (10)

Statistics Comment

Nothing particularly poor about either team with the conversion rates low for both in an attacking sense but high from a defensive sense. Victory have won just 3 times in Newcastle from 20 A-League regular season matches, but of course won the most significant one in last seasons Grand Final.

Betting Strategy

Likely to be a tight match but I just have to bet against the Victory defence as it stands.

 BACK (WIN) Newcastle Draw No bet at 1.95+ for 2 units


Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 3rd November, 10:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Perth have started the season very well under new coach Tony Popovic and I really like the set up playing a 5-3-2 with the wide defenders encouraged to get forward. With Diego Castro to come back into the team they look like they are going to be a real threat this season.

Brisbane have started fairly, if unspectacularly, drawing at home to Central Coast and Wellington. Against Central Coast they really should have won with Adam Taggart guilty of spurning a number of good chances. They had a lot of the game against Wellington without creating too much.

Key Statistics

2018/19 StatisticsPerBne
Points4 (1)2 (5)
Win1 (1)0 (5)
Draw1 (4)2 (1)
Lost0 (1)0 (1)
Goals Scored4 (1)1 (9)
Total Shots For (p/match)13 (4)16 (1)
Shots on Target For (p/m)4.5 (3)3.5 (6)
Goals Conceded3 (7)1 (1)
Total Shots Against (p/m)10.5 (3)10.5 (3)
Shots on Target Against (p/m)5 (7)2.5 (1)
Clean Sheets0 (4)1 (1)
FTO2.51 (2)0 (6)
FTU2.51 (6)2 (1)
H SOT Conv44% (1)14% (10)
A SOT Conv30% (6)20% (2)

Statistics Comment

Perth are looking strong across the board albeit with a natural amount of improvement at this early stage of the season. Brisbane have been heavily favoured by the early fixtures with the Mariners and Phoenix at home.

Their big worry is that those are 2 matches they really should be getting at least 4 points from. The shots against is encouraging but again likely due more to the fixturing then brilliant defending.

Betting Strategy

Early to say but Perth are doing well and despite some bright moments Brisbane have started only fairly. I suspect Perth will be far to strong here.

 BACK (WIN) Perth to Win at 1.80+ for 3 units

Sydney v Western Sydney

Saturday 27th October, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney were outplayed for much of the match at Adelaide last week yet still had the class to come away with a point when most teams would not. Rookie Coach Steve Corica has maintained a very stable philosophy within the group which will hold them in good stead. In Adam Le Fondre they have found what looks to be a deadly goal poacher a completely different style of player to Bobo but he is likely to end with similar results assuming he gets the service he requires. The lack of Bobo’s physicality was felt when they tried to clear their lines long and certainly that is one area they must work on and with the Derby followed by the FFA Cup final they don’t have a lot of time.

Western Sydney gave as good as they got against the Glory in Perth last week, eventually leaving with a hard-earned point. I liked the look of them going forward, particularly new man Alex Baumjohann who produced some incredible defence splitting passes. I am however concerned about their back line. Aerially they dealt with Perth ok, but their wide defenders were often caught high up the pitch and I am not a big wrap for the central defensive pair of Tongyik and Hamill.

2017/18 Stats (Rank in brackets)SydWSW
Win20 (1)8 (8)
Draw4 (8)9 (1)
Loss3 (1)8 (3)
Goals For64 (1)35 (6)
Goals Against22 (1)41 (7)
Total Shots For p/match13.3 (5)14 (2)
Shots on Target For p/m5.6 (2)4.2 (6)
Total Shots Against p/m10.2 (1)14.4 (10)
Shots on Target Against p/m3 (1)5.8 (10)
Clean Sheets12 (1)6 (4)
Over 2.519 (2)15 (9)
Under 2.58 (9)10 (3)
Shots on Target Conversion42% (1)33% (5)
Shots On Target Concession42% (1)33% (2)

Statistics Comment

Sydney dominated in every area last season whilst the Wanderers were underperforming in most areas. Sydney have won 9 of the 18 league derbies and the FFA Cup semi-final recently.

Betting Strategy

I expect Sydney to expose the Wanderers in defence and prove too strong.

 BACK (WIN) Sydney -0.75 at 1.9+ for 2 units


Adelaide v Newcastle

Friday 26th October, 7:50pm AEDT, Coopers Stadium

Match Overview

Adelaide were unlucky not to take full points from their season opener at home to Sydney FC. They really should have been 2 or 3 up before Sydney, at their clinical best, levelled the match with their first real chance.

At no point did Sydney dominate them, and they look as if they will be an incredibly difficult team to break down with Jordan Elsey and Michael Jakobsen leading their defensive line. The problem for them was finding that killer instinct in front of goal particularly with Ben Halloran starting as a make shift striker. Tough to blame them when injury and a lack of match fitness took out their main striking options of Diawara, Blackwood, Kitto and Ilso.

They produced a very good base from which to build off and look in for a good season. They have the FFA Cup final on the Tuesday following but I don’t expect them to be too distracted by that event.

Newcastle lost away to Wellington Phoenix despite dominating possession and finishing with the better of the chances. Worryingly for the Jets they seemed to be out fought and out muscled at times, by in fairness a very physical Phoenix.

They have the nucleus of a very strong team but without the direction of Roy O’Donovan up front they may struggle for results, particularly away from home early in the season.

2017/18 Stats (Rank in brackets)AdlNew
Win11 (5)15 (2)
Draw6 (3)5 (5)
Loss10 (4)7 (2)
Goals For36 (5)57 (2)
Goals Against38 (5)37 (3)
Total Shots For p/match14.2 (1)13.6 (4)
Shots on Target For p/m4.3 (4)5.8 (1)
Total Shots Against p/m11.1 (3)13.1 (6)
Shots on Target Against p/m4.4 (5)4.2 (4)
Clean Sheets5 (5)7 (3)
Over 2.516 (8)20 (1)
Under 2.511 (2)7 (10)
Shots on Target Conversion31% (7)37% (3)
Shots on Target Concession32% (4)32% (5)

Statistics Comment

The hallmark of the Jets matches last season was the open nature of the matches and number 1 rank for “Overs”. Their first match was over 2.5 albeit with 2 goals in the last 6 minutes. Adelaide were virtually a mirror image of last season but have some reinforcements in attack this week.

Verdict

Despite the Jets figures and another open game against the Phoenix last weekend I expect a very tight match here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Under 2.5 Goals at 2.10+ for 2 Units

Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

Saturday 20th October, 7:50pm AEDT, Marvel Stadium

Match Overview

Victory won the Grand Final last year from 4th on the ladder and it is fair to say they were very poor for most of the season. Enter Keisuke Honda and Ola Toivonen straight from world cup duties and they look an outstanding outfit. Added to this I think this will be a big season for “King” Kenny Athiu and the attacking threat is awesome.

City lost Ross McCormack midway through last season and felt it towards the end of the season with a lack of goals. Bruno Fornaroli was also missing for the majority of last season but has looked sharp in pre-season FFA Cup matches. They are tight defensively but will need to be at the top of their game against a Victory team with a strong front 3.

Key Statistics

The hallmark of the Jets matches last season was the open nature of the matches and number 1 rank for “Overs”. Their first match was over 2.5 albeit with 2 goals in the last 6 minutes. Adelaide were virtually a mirror image of last season but have some reinforcements in attack this week.

2017/18 Stats (Rank in brackets)VicCity
Win12 (4)13 (3)
Draw5 (5)4 (8)
Loss10 (4)10 (4)
Goals For43 (3)41 (4)
Goals Against37 (3)33 (2)
Total Shots For p/match12.3 (7)12.8 (6)
Shots on Target For p/m4.3 (4)4.7 (3)
Total Shots Against p/m13.8 (7)11.1 (2)
Shots on Target Against p/m4.1 (3)3.7 (2)
Clean Sheets4 (9)9 (2)
Over 2.517 (4)17 (4)
Under 2.510 (3)10 (3)
Shots on Target Conversion37% (2)33% (6)
Shots on Target Concession34% (7)33% (6)

Verdict

Two high scoring teams last season and their head to head statistics point to even more strongly to goals with 20 of 25 derbies seeing 3 goals or more.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.6+ for 2 units

 BACK (WIN) over 3.5 goals at 2.4+ for 1 unit


Wellington Pheonix v Newcastle Jets

Sunday 21st October, 3:00pm AEDT, Wellington Regional Stadium

Match Overview

Coach Mark Rudan makes his A-League debut with Wellington and has a largely settled line-up with the exception of the addition of Englishman Stephen Taylor. He will likely have them very organised, but he is also an attacking coach and as such it is likely not much will change for Wellington home games which generally see goals.

Newcastle were fantastic last year getting all the way to the Grand Final. That loss hurt but potentially the most painful aspect may play out this season with Roy O’Donovan banned for 8 matches. That said they were without marquee Ronald Vargas for a big part of the season and as such he is like a new signing, and a good one at that.

Key Statistics

2017/18 Stats (Rank in brackets)WelNew
Win5 (9)15 (2)
Draw6 (3)5 (5)
Loss16 (10)7 (2)
Goals For31 (9)57 (2)
Goals Against55 (10)37 (3)
Total Shots For p/match13.6 (3)13.6 (4)
Shots on Target For p/m4 (7)5.8 (1)
Total Shots Against p/m14 (8)13.1 (6)
Shots on Target Against p/m5.1 (9)4.2 (4)
Clean Sheets2 (10)7 (3)
Over 2.518 (3)20 (1)
Under 2.59 (7)7 (10)
Shots on Target Conversion29% (10)37% (3)
Shots on Target Concession40% (9)32% (5)

Verdict

Both these teams feature heavily in “overs” matches last season and whilst I think Wellington will be more compact, particularly early in the season I think this match will still see goals and be relatively open

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for 2 units

 BACK (WIN) over 3.5 goals at 2.2+ for 1 unit

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