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Perth v Melbourne Victory
Match Overview
Perth secure semi-final football with a win in this match, realistically a draw and they are also confirmed into the Top 6. They have played 4 games already since the resumption splitting them 2 wins and 2 losses. The depth of their squad will allow for some rotation of players without losing much and with plenty of experienced players they should be able to cope with the run of games.
Victory were, for the 2nd time this season, run down by Wooden Spooners Central Coast to lose 2-3 last week. They really were abject in their display. Possible they could bounce back but they look like a team desperately waiting for the end of the season.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Perth | Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 24 | 24 |
| Points | 37 (5) | 20 (10) |
| Win | 10 (6) | 5 (11) |
| Draw | 7 (1) | 5 (5) |
| Lost | 6 (10) | 14 (2) |
| Goals Scored | 39 (4) | 28 (9) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 8.7 (11) | 9.3 (8) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 4.8 (4) | 3.7 (11) |
| Goals Conceded | 25 (2) | 42 (9) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 7.5 (1) | 9.6 (4) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 3.4 (1) | 4.3 (4) |
| Clean Sheets | 8 (1) | 5 (6) |
| Over 2.5 | 13 (7) | 17 (2) |
| Under 2.5 | 10 (5) | 7 (9) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.34 (5) | 0.31 (7) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.31 (6) | 0.4 (11) |
Statistics Comment
Perth hold the edge as far as statistics go, albeit not as clear as what the table may suggest.
The Victory have fair defensive stats up till the point of concession rate which speaks to the quality of chances they give up to the opposition.
Prediction
Perth are a short price and I hate to back the “only team with something to play for” but they look to have a clear edge in class. Perth 4-0
BACK – Perth -1.0 in the Asian Handicap market 1.8+ for 2 units
BACK -Perth -2.5 in the Asian Handicap market at 4.5+ for 1 unit
Western United v Western Sydney
Match Overview
Western United beat Melbourne Victory in their only match since the resumption to keep alive their hopes of a top 6 place. They sit 5 points behind Adelaide with 3 games in hand. This is the first of 4 matches in 13 days to decide their season. A win is required to keep their destiny in their own hands. They have no fresh injury concerns heading into this period.
Despite beating Wellington the failure to get the 3 points against Central Coast has left Western Sydney with just a rough chance to make the top 6. They are 5 points behind Adelaide with just 2 matches to play, and as noted above Western United are on the same points with 4 matches to play. Anything less than a win and it is season over. They lose Nicolai Muller to concussion which doesn’t help matters.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | WST | WSW |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 22 | 24 |
| Points | 30 (8) | 30 (8) |
| Win | 9 (7) | 8 (8) |
| Draw | 3 (8) | 6 (3) |
| Lost | 10 (4) | 10 (4) |
| Goals Scored | 36 (6) | 30 (7) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.3 (8) | 10.3 (4) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 4.4 (7) | 4.1 (9) |
| Goals Conceded | 30 (4) | 34 (6) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 10 (7) | 10.6 (9) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.5 (6) | 4.8 (9) |
| Clean Sheets | 4 (8) | 4 (8) |
| Over 2.5 | 11 (9) | 11 (9) |
| Under 2.5 | 11 (4) | 13 (2) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.38 (2) | 0.3 (8) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.3 (4) | 0.3 (4) |
Statistics Comment
Little between these 2 as the ladder suggests. Western United do generally convert at a higher rate than Western Sydney which might be the difference.
Both teams tend to keep it tight with low scoring matches however you would think with so much at stake that may not occur in this one.
Prediction
Western United to finish off the Wanderers season. Western United 2-0
BACK – Western United to win at 2.2+ for 2 units
Match Overview
Adelaide have come out swinging since the resumption in the battle for top 6. They have returned 7 from a possible 9 points including dismantling Perth 5 – 3 a week ago. Interim boss Carl Veart has them playing well and media reports are he might even secure the permanent position should he succeed here. They have no fresh injury worries.
Since the resumption, Sydney have been poor (more in the stats section) despite being crowned Premiers along the way. Their defence has fallen apart and they enter this match without holding midfielder Luke Brattan which places more pressure on that back four. Further their attack has run aground, particularly without Rhyan Grant.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Adelaide | Sydney |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 24 | 23 |
| Points | 34 (6) | 51 (1) |
| Win | 11 (4) | 16 (1) |
| Draw | 1 (11) | 3 (8) |
| Lost | 12 (3) | 4 (11) |
| Goals Scored | 41 (3) | 46 (1) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 12 (1) | 9.2 (10) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 4.7 (5) | 5 (3) |
| Goals Conceded | 46 (10) | 21 (1) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 13.1 (10) | 9.1 (2) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 5.9 (10) | 4.1 (2) |
| Clean Sheets | 4 (8) | 6 (3) |
| Over 2.5 | 19 (1) | 15 (5) |
| Under 2.5 | 5 (11) | 8 (8) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.36 (3) | 0.4 (1) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.32 (7) | 0.22 (1) |
Statistics Comment
Adelaide matches have not really tightened up since the resumption despite a couple of under 2.5 goal returns. They have conceded on average 18 shots per match with 5.3 on target. Their attacking output has remained consistent.
Despite a season ranking of 2nd in terms of shots conceded Sydney have faced down an average 14 shots and 5.7 on target in their last 3 matches.
They have returned 9.7 shots and 3.3 on target in the 3 matches but most of those came late against Wellington. In their last 2 they have managed just 7 shots on target and 1.5 shots on target.
Prediction
Perfect conditions and with City to follow Adelaide do need to go for it. Adelaide 3-2.
BACK – Adelaide to win at $2.50+ for 2 units
BACK – Over 2.5 goals at $1.60+ for 2 units
Match Overview
Interesting clash here with City the last team to return to action against Sydney who have played twice and by virtue of other results were crowned Premiers last weekend.
City, after the madness of trying to get out of Victoria and a 14-day quarantine period will be pleased to get back to football. Western United came out well prepared but Victory less so. Based on their form prior to lockdown that is not great surprise. City with their resources should be well prepared.
Sydney really struggled last week. They were lucky to beat Wellington despite being second best for most of the match and then were comprehensively beaten by Newcastle if we consider the flow of the match. Perhaps the fact they have now been crowned Premiers they kick back into gear with less pressure.
Rhyan Grant is absent and this is a huge loss as they just do not have another right back capable of getting up and down the pitch and will miss a lot from their attack in particular.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | City | Sydney |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 23 | 22 |
| Points | 40 (2) | 51 (1) |
| Win | 12 (2) | 16 (1) |
| Draw | 4 (6) | 3 (8) |
| Lost | 7 (8) | 3 (11) |
| Goals Scored | 42 (2) | 46 (1) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 11.7 (2) | 9.4 (8) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 5.6 (1) | 5.1 (3) |
| Goals Conceded | 34 (7) | 19 (1) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 10 (6) | 8.6 (2) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.5 (6) | 3.9 (2) |
| Clean Sheets | 5 (4) | 6 (3) |
| Over 2.5 | 17 (2) | 15 (4) |
| Under 2.5 | 6 (10) | 7 (8) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.33 (5) | 0.41 (1) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.33 (8) | 0.22 (1) |
Statistics Comment
Sydney have relied on their conversion and concession rates for the best part of the season. Always difficult to maintain. That said their stats match up well with the competition and they have been the best team.
City have maintained a position as the head of the chasing pack for most of the season. They now face real competition for this. Their attack is fine, but they do need to tighten up in defence.
Interestingly in the last 10 matches between this pair Sydney have won 8, City 1, Draw 1.
Prediction
Both teams enjoy open matches and this match should be played in perfect conditions. Before the markets came up, I was keen to tip City but they have been recognised as favourites and with a disastrous head to head record I will swerve that. City 2-1.
BACK – Over 2.5 goals at $1.65+ for 3 units
Match Overview
Western Sydney escaped from Gosford with a point against the Mariners who broke a 12-match losing streak. That result and the win by Adelaide last night over Perth leaves the Wanderers 7 points from the top-6 with 4 games to play. They are not quite dead but a loss here and they are realistically no hope of finals football. They have a fully fit squad which is a bonus.
Wellington got out of a tough 3 games in their first week back with 4 points from 9. Given they could have beaten Sydney and Adelaide have since put on a masterclass then it was a reasonable return. The all-important second position on the ladder is now theirs to lose. They also welcome back key midfielder Matti Steinmann from suspension.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | WSW | Wellington |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 22 | 23 |
| Points | 27 (9) | 40 (2) |
| Win | 7 (8) | 12 (2) |
| Draw | 6 (3) | 4 (6) |
| Lost | 9 (5) | 7 (8) |
| Goals Scored | 28 (7) | 37 (4) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 10.4 (4) | 9.5 (7) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 4.3 (8) | 4.3 (8) |
| Goals Conceded | 31 (6) | 28 (4) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 11 (9) | 10 (6) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 5 (9) | 4.5 (6) |
| Clean Sheets | 3 (10) | 5 (4) |
| Over 2.5 | 10 (10) | 15 (4) |
| Under 2.5 | 12 (2) | 8 (7) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.3 (8) | 0.37 (3) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.28 (4) | 0.27 (3) |
Statistics Comment
Wellington hold an edge over their opponents in this one albeit they still need to lift their attacking output. The Wanderers can keep games tight with a high rank under 2.5 goals and draws return.
Prediction
The 6-day break for Wellington after 3 matches in 8 days along with some squad rotation should be enough to win this. Wellington 2-0.
BACK – Wellington to win at $1.90+ for 3 units
Match Overview
Wellington lost to Sydney before hanging on to beat Perth 1-0 midweek. Truth be told they could easily have beaten Sydney such was the performance and they dominated Perth before getting tired. This will be their biggest concern heading into this match as it is their 3rd game in 8 days. Fortunately, they have a deep squad and Ulises Davila should be fit to start this match.
Adelaide were very fortunate to win against Brisbane last week on the back of man of the match effort from keeper Paul Izzo. They played well enough but on face value still look a few rungs below the top teams, such as Wellington.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Wel | Adl |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 22 | 22 |
| Points | 39 (3) | 30 (6) |
| Win | 12 (2) | 10 (4) |
| Draw | 3 (7) | 0 (11) |
| Lost | 7 (8) | 12 (2) |
| Goals Scored | 36 (3) | 35 (5) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.9 (5) | 12.4 (1) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 4.6 (6) | 4.7 (5) |
| Goals Conceded | 27 (4) | 42 (10) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 9 (3) | 13.4 (10) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.1 (3) | 6.1 (10) |
| Clean Sheets | 5 (4) | 4 (7) |
| Over 2.5 | 15 (3) | 18 (1) |
| Under 2.5 | 7 (7) | 4 (11) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.36 (3) | 0.34 (4) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.3 (5) | 0.31 (6) |
Statistics Comment
I noted last week that Wellington are arguably the form team of the competition after their slow start. On a points per game basis they would and probably should be right alongside Sydney and fighting for the Premiers plate. Their only concern is having produced 3 goals from just 4 shots on target so far which is unsustainable.
Adelaide are yet to draw in 22 games this season but did manage a clean sheet and played just their 4th under 2.5 match of the year.
Prediction
Suspect an open match with Wellington doing enough to hold on. Could be a few goals and I would not discourage anyone from laying them back late if the chance arises. Wellington 2-1.
BACK – Wellington to win at $2.00+ for 2 units
Match Overview
I gave Central Coast a good chance of beating Perth last week but, how wrong I could be. They stretched to their 11th loss in succession and one more tonight creates a very much unwanted new A-League record. Once again they dominated possession but despite having more shots on goal, they struggled to turn that into meaningful chances and were, in the end, provided little by way of threat to Perth.
Newcastle were fantastic in a fully deserved win over Sydney FC on Tuesday. Coach Carl Robinson has certainly altered their style and belief with the recent break looking to have served them well. They have a quick 3-day turn around which is a concern. Sydney were clearly flat against Newcastle and Wellington struggled late against Perth so the short turn arounds may prove difficult for these teams despite the ability to use 5 substitutes.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | CC | New |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 23 | 23 |
| Points | 13 (11) | 27 (7) |
| Win | 4 (11) | 7 (8) |
| Draw | 1 (10) | 6 (2) |
| Lost | 18 (1) | 10 (4) |
| Goals Scored | 22 (11) | 28 (7) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.5 (7) | 11.8 (2) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 3.7 (11) | 5.5 (2) |
| Goals Conceded | 52 (11) | 40 (9) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 13.7 (11) | 9.6 (5) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 6.2 (11) | 4.3 (5) |
| Clean Sheets | 1 (11) | 4 (7) |
| Over 2.5 | 15 (3) | 12 (7) |
| Under 2.5 | 8 (6) | 11 (2) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.26 (9) | 0.22 (11) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.36 (9) | 0.4 (10) |
Statistics Comment
Newcastle have lost just once in their last nine and on that run have beaten Perth, City and Sydney so they have certainly improved and their results are now starting to match their reasonably positive stats. They have always been much higher ranked for attacking and defensive stats then their ladder position but now they are more equitable.
Central Coast only conceded 7 total shots and 2 on target against Perth which is better than their average. So, there is some positive in that tempered of course by the fact that Perth always target quality over quantity.
Prediction
Interesting that Central Coast were around $8 against Perth but only $5 against the Jets. Newcastle 2-0.
BACK – Newcastle -1 at $1.80+ for 3 units
Match Overview
Central Coast will be looking to the A-League resumption to help right some of the wrongs from their campaign thus far. They won at Perth in Round 3, which off the back of a Derby draw and playing well looked to set them up for a nice season. Obviously, that did not unfold, and they were at times disastrous. They have only the 4 games to go so it is hard for the team last on the ladder to pick themselves up however they have the comfort of 3 of those matches at Central Coast Stadium.
Perth have suffered a hammer blow to their title hopes with Diego Castro opting not to re-enter the hub and taking the rest of the season off. They are far from a one-man band but in missing Castro they are missing one of the all-time great A-League era players. Very hard to judge how their mindset will be coming into this one.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Central Coast | Perth |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 22 | 20 |
| Points | 13 (11) | 31 (5) |
| Win | 4 (11) | 8 (6) |
| Draw | 1 (10) | 7 (1) |
| Lost | 17 (1) | 5 (10) |
| Goals Scored | 22 (11) | 35 (3) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.7 (6) | 9.2 (11) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 3.7 (11) | 4.9 (4) |
| Goals Conceded | 51 (11) | 22 (2) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 14 (11) | 7.5 (1) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 6.3 (11) | 3.4 (1) |
| Clean Sheets | 1 (11) | 7 (1) |
| Over 2.5 | 15 (3) | 11 (7) |
| Under 2.5 | 7 (6) | 9 (5) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.27 (9) | 0.36 (3) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.37 (9) | 0.32 (6) |
Statistics Comment
Hard to make a case for the Mariners. The statistics really do not lie. I expect an open match.
Prediction
Central Coast should not be able to beat Perth. However, that is to ignore the incredible value about them at home and with nothing to lose against Perth without their main man. A true score prediction would have Perth winning but I’m going to say the Mariners can pinch it 3-2 and should be more like $4 rather than the $8+ they have already been matched at.
BACK – Central Coast to win at 5.0+ for 2 units (max bet 3 units)
BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 2.0+ for 2 units
Match Overview
We’re back baby! Finally, we can sit back and enjoy some A-League action not that Mrs A-League Analyst is too thrilled. Oh and no VAR to boot, good times.
Sydney will look to return as the benchmark for the competition and with their full array of players available they will continue to be strong. They are 8-1-1 at Home albeit they lost to the Wanderers before drawing 0-0 with Perth in their final two home matches before the competition’s suspension.
Wellington are a fantastic team to watch. It will be interesting to see how the 2-weeks in quarantine has treated the players. A word of caution for Wellington fans. Ulises Davila and Gary Hooper both have only recently come out of the stricter hotel quarantine for arrivals from overseas so neither may play this match or will almost certainly not last the 90 mins. Any loss of Davila who has started every match would be a large blow to Wellington
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Sydney | Wellington |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 20 | 20 |
| Points | 48 (1) | 36 (3) |
| Win | 15 (1) | 11 (3) |
| Draw | 3 (7) | 3 (7) |
| Lost | 2 (11) | 6 (9) |
| Goals Scored | 42 (1) | 33 (6) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.7 (6) | 9.8 (5) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 5.2 (3) | 4.6 (6) |
| Goals Conceded | 16 (1) | 23 (3) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 8.7 (2) | 10 (5) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 3.9 (2) | 4.5 (5) |
| Clean Sheets | 6 (3) | 5 (4) |
| Over 2.5 | 13 (5) | 13 (5) |
| Under 2.5 | 7 (6) | 7 (6) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.4 (1) | 0.36 (3) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.21 (1) | 0.26 (3) |
Statistics Comment
Wellington have amassed 35 points from 15 matches after starting the season with 1 point from 5. On a points per game basis (2.33) would put them much closer to Sydney (2.4 ppg) and they are likely only a few point inferior team to Sydney at this point of the season rather than the 12 we observe from the ladder.
Very little between the teams. Both teams like to play open attacking football with the majority of their matches seeing over 2.5 goals.
Prediction
Davila is the X-Factor. I cannot imagine him being anywhere near his best or for that matter featuring for a long period which is likely the determining factor albeit there is not great value in Sydney either. Sydney 2-1
BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.7+ for 2 units (max bet 3 units)
Match Overview
Perth went to Sydney and finished up with a 0-0 draw, not bad I suppose on the back of a home loss to City, away loss to Newcastle and draw at Brisbane in the previous 3 matches. They have certainly come off the boil.
Western United have smashed Adelaide 5-1 away from home and Central Coast 6-2 at home. Obviously beating those 2 teams in the form they are in is potentially not the best guide, however those type of results certainly breeds a lot of confidence. It is just possible they might have turned the corner and given they are one position and 4 points behind their opponent are not out of this.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Perth | WST |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 20 | 20 |
| Points | 31 (5) | 27 (6) |
| Win | 8 (6) | 8 (6) |
| Draw | 7 (1) | 3 (7) |
| Lost | 5 (10) | 9 (4) |
| Goals Scored | 35 (3) | 34 (4) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.2 (11) | 9.4 (9) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 4.9 (4) | 4.5 (7) |
| Goals Conceded | 22 (3) | 28 (5) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 7.5 (1) | 10.5 (8) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 3.4 (1) | 4.8 (8) |
| Clean Sheets | 7 (1) | 4 (7) |
| Over 2.5 | 11 (7) | 10 (8) |
| Under 2.5 | 9 (5) | 10 (2) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.36 (3) | 0.38 (2) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.32 (6) | 0.29 (4) |
Statistics Comment
Perth very strong on the defensive front, however conceded 3 in their last home match.
Western United statistics don’t look to align particularly well with Perth but they are certainly on the rise.
Prediction
Could be an upset brewing at big odds in a high scoring match. Western United 3-2.
BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at $1.50 for a risk of 1 unit
BACK – Over 3.5 Goals at $2.40 for a risk of 1 unit
Match Overview
Central Coast were much better than I or the betting market expected away to Brisbane last week. That said they still lost 0-1 to move to 9 losses on end. Unfortunate for them that they lose Daniel De Silva given he is now their only injured player.
City dominated plenty of attacking stats last week but looked very vulnerable defending quick counters from Western Sydney in their 1-1 draw. They were coming off the high of beating Perth that was an energy sapping result. Rostyn Griffiths and Adrian Luna return from suspension to add something to the midfield.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | CC | City |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 21 | 21 |
| Points | 13 (11) | 37 (2) |
| Win | 4 (11) | 11 (2) |
| Draw | 1 (10) | 4 (5) |
| Lost | 16 (1) | 6 (8) |
| Goals Scored | 20 (11) | 37 (2) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.8 (5) | 11.8 (3) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 3.8 (10) | 5.6 (1) |
| Goals Conceded | 47 (11) | 30 (7) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 13.7 (11) | 9.7 (4) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 6.2 (11) | 4.4 (4) |
| Clean Sheets | 1 (11) | 5 (4) |
| Over 2.5 | 14 (3) | 15 (2) |
| Under 2.5 | 7 (6) | 6 (9) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.25 (10) | 0.32 (6) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.36 (9) | 0.33 (7) |
Statistics Comment
Mariners continue to sit at the foot of the ladder and really don’t look like improving anytime soon.
City continue to be reasonably strong across the park albeit their actual number of goals conceded needs to improve.
Prediction
Couldn’t back City at the shorts and an upset wouldn’t shock, but hard to put too much trust in the Mariners. Central Coast 3-2.
BACK – Central Coast at 4.5+ for 1 unit
BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 2.1+ for 2 units
Match Overview
Western Sydney went to City last week and were pretty good value for the point in their 1-1 draw. They sat back and absorbed a lot of pressure but looked dangerous on the counter. This was a similar pattern to when they beat Sydney just a few weeks ago. Once again, mystifying to me why Keanu Baccus is not playing, obviously I’m missing something, but he should be in the starting 11.
Sydney played out a 0-0 draw with Perth in a reasonably dull match. They still maintain their hefty ladder leading position and have a 22-point gap over Western Sydney. Sydney also have a fully fit squad to call upon.
Western Sydney has beaten Sydney 1-0 twice this season.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | WSW | Sydney |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 20 | 19 |
| Points | 25 (8) | 47 (1) |
| Win | 7 (8) | 15 (1) |
| Draw | 4 (5) | 2 (9) |
| Lost | 9 (4) | 2 (11) |
| Goals Scored | 26 (7) | 41 (1) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 10.1 (4) | 9.8 (5) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 4.3 (8) | 5.3 (3) |
| Goals Conceded | 29 (6) | 15 (2) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 10.9 (9) | 8.6 (2) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.9 (9) | 3.9 (2) |
| Clean Sheets | 3 (9) | 6 (2) |
| Over 2.5 | 10 (8) | 13 (5) |
| Under 2.5 | 10 (2) | 6 (9) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.31 (7) | 0.41 (1) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.3 (5) | 0.2 (1) |
Statistics Comment
No stats that can push the fact that Western Sydney should be able to compete with Sydney other than the couple of wins against them already this season.
Prediction
Sydney were very leg weary a few weeks ago when beaten by the Wanderers. No such issues this week. Sydney 2-0.
BACK – Sydney to win at 1.8+ for 2 units
Match Overview
Wellington were once again very strong beating Central Coast 3-1 in Gosford, as noted last week they have had a nice little spell at home and I think they are as likely as any of their competition to run into the coveted 2nd position on the ladder. They miss only a couple of long-term injured players and will be looking to build on their recent run of 3 wins on the bounce.
Victory were clearly the inferior team last week losing 1-4 to Sydney at Marvel Stadium. The absence of Robbie Kruse and Adama Traore showed and they now lose Tim Hoogland and Giancarlo Gallifuoco from a threadbare defence.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Wellington | Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 19 | 20 |
| Points | 33 (3) | 20 (9) |
| Win | 10 (3) | 5 (9) |
| Draw | 3 (5) | 5 (3) |
| Lost | 6 (8) | 10 (3) |
| Goals Scored | 30 (6) | 24 (8) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.8 (5) | 9.6 (8) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 4.6 (6) | 3.9 (10) |
| Goals Conceded | 23 (4) | 32 (8) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 10.4 (6) | 9.2 (3) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.7 (6) | 4.2 (3) |
| Clean Sheets | 4 (6) | 5 (2) |
| Over 2.5 | 12 (6) | 13 (4) |
| Under 2.5 | 7 (6) | 7 (6) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.34 (5) | 0.31 (7) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.26 (2) | 0.39 (10) |
Statistics Comment
Wellington potentially over-performing when we look at their stats, but remembering they started the season with four straight losses we can discount that.
Victory are the lower table team their stats point to. Their concession and conversion rates are awful, and they have been helped by a few clean sheets more than I would have expected given their defence.
Prediction
Wellington look a strong bet at around 2.1 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them firm heavily. Wellington 3-1.
BACK – Wellington to win at 1.8+ for a risk of 3 units
Match Overview
Sydney bounced back from their poor loss to Western Sydney to comfortably dispatch Victory 4-1 at Marvel Stadium. They just win at home, they just win everywhere. They have a fully fit squad and still a 10-point buffer at the top of the ladder from their nearest rival with a pair of games in hand.
Perth went 0-3 behind to City after 35 mins. They naturally dominated after that point and were probably unfortunate not to get a point, however, there were some alarm bells about the ease of which they were opened up.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Sydney | Perth |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 18 | 19 |
| Points | 46 (1) | 30 (4) |
| Win | 15 (1) | 8 (5) |
| Draw | 1 (9) | 6 (1) |
| Lost | 2 (11) | 5 (10) |
| Goals Scored | 41 (1) | 35 (3) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.8 (5) | 9.4 (9) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 5.3 (3) | 5.1 (4) |
| Goals Conceded | 15 (2) | 22 (3) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 9 (2) | 7.5 (1) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.1 (2) | 3.4 (1) |
| Clean Sheets | 5 (2) | 6 (1) |
| Over 2.5 | 13 (4) | 11 (7) |
| Under 2.5 | 5 (9) | 8 (5) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.43 (1) | 0.36 (3) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.21 (1) | 0.34 (8) |
Statistics Comment
Sydney still clearly the benchmark. Nothing they aren’t at the top or near the top in the rankings and their conversion and concession rates are off the charts when we consider the league long term average is around 30%.
Perth went 7 matches, 6 wins, conceding just 2 goals and keeping 6 clean sheets. Since then they have conceded {2,2,1,4,2} and won 1 match.
Prediction
Perth have the quality to bounce back. But Sydney with 8 wins from 9 at home won’t make it easy. Sydney 2-0.
BACK – Sydney to win at 1.8+ for 2 units
Match Overview
City went to Perth and rushed out to a 3-0 lead in 34 minutes. Naturally, they went on the back foot from there, but the fact is they managed to fight their way through it and secure a very important win over one of their major rivals for the very important 2nd position on the ladder.
After 3 wins and a draw in 4 matches, Western Sydney fell back to earth in a big way losing 1-3 to Brisbane. Not clear to me why Keanu Baccus didn’t play last week but has once again been promoted to the squad this week and he will certainly tighten them up and give them much more attacking output.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | City | WSW |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 20 | 19 |
| Points | 36 (2) | 24 (8) |
| Win | 11 (2) | 7 (8) |
| Draw | 3 (5) | 3 (5) |
| Lost | 6 (8) | 9 (4) |
| Goals Scored | 36 (2) | 25 (7) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 11.8 (3) | 10.3 (4) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 5.7 (1) | 4.3 (8) |
| Goals Conceded | 29 (7) | 28 (6) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 9.7 (4) | 11 (9) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.4 (4) | 4.9 (9) |
| Clean Sheets | 5 (2) | 3 (8) |
| Over 2.5 | 15 (2) | 10 (8) |
| Under 2.5 | 5 (9) | 9 (3) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.32 (6) | 0.31 (7) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.33 (6) | 0.3 (5) |
Statistics Comment
City more progressive in attack then in recent seasons. To be serious title contenders they need to improve their conversion and concession rates.
Western Sydney stats suggest a team that won’t make the 6. They had some momentum and may be able to pull it back but need to improve across the park.
Prediction
City should be able to get over the top of the Wanderers. City 2-0.
BACK – City to win at 1.7+ for a risk of 2 units
Match Overview
Brisbane were strong 3-1 winners over the Wanderers last week to continue their good form. They seem to be easing into their position around 4th to 7th in the competition but showing clear superiority over the lesser teams. They have a full-strength squad to choose from.
Central Coast capitulated again last week going down 1-3 at home to Wellington. That’s now 8 losses on end and going backwards they have conceded {3,6,3,2,4,3}. They have a full-strength squad, but it is hard to see how they turn themselves around.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Brisbane | CC |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 20 | 20 |
| Points | 29 (5) | 13 (11) |
| Win | 8 (5) | 4 (10) |
| Draw | 5 (3) | 1 (9) |
| Lost | 7 (7) | 15 (1) |
| Goals Scored | 23 (9) | 20 (11) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.4 (9) | 9.8 (5) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 4.3 (8) | 3.8 (11) |
| Goals Conceded | 24 (5) | 46 (11) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 10.2 (5) | 13.8 (11) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.6 (5) | 6.3 (11) |
| Clean Sheets | 5 (2) | 1 (11) |
| Over 2.5 | 7 (11) | 14 (3) |
| Under 2.5 | 13 (1) | 6 (8) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.27 (9) | 0.27 (9) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.26 (2) | 0.37 (9) |
Statistics Comment
Brisbane have won 5 of 9 at home whilst the Coast have lost 9 of 10 away. Brisbane have only conceded 2 or more goals 5 times against Sydney, City x 2, Wellington and Western United
Prediction
Brisbane far too strong for a dispirited Mariners. Brisbane 3-1.
BACK – Brisbane -1.5 goals in the Asian Handicap market at 1.9+ for 3 units
Match Overview
Central Coast have now lost seven in a row after what can now be likely called an anomaly of a win against Victory in Round 14. They at least have a full squad to choose from on their return to Gosford however the manner of their 2-6 capitulation to Western United provides more questions than answers.
Wellington had the bye last week and will come into this fresh off a pair of back to back home games in New Zealand. It will be interesting to see if they are a little slow to begin but what a luxury it must have been home for virtually an entire month. Think this could be a very big positive in the run into the finals with a few leg-weary teams ahead of them.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | CC | Wel |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 19 | 18 |
| Points | 13 (11) | 30 (3) |
| Win | 4 (10) | 9 (3) |
| Draw | 1 (9) | 3 (5) |
| Lost | 14 (1) | 6 (8) |
| Goals Scored | 19 (11) | 27 (6) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.5 (8) | 10.1 (5) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 3.8 (11) | 4.6 (6) |
| Goals Conceded | 43 (11) | 22 (4) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 14 (11) | 10.5 (6) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 6.4 (11) | 4.8 (6) |
| Clean Sheets | 1 (11) | 4 (6) |
| Over 2.5 | 13 (3) | 11 (6) |
| Under 2.5 | 6 (8) | 7 (6) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.26 (9) | 0.33 (5) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.36 (10) | 0.26 (2) |
Statistics Comment
Nothing that the Mariners seem to try appears to be working and they are just sliding further into the mire and off the bottom of the table points and stats. Wellington remain a very solid team across the park. Even more when we consider they lost their first 4 matches of the season. Since those games they are 9W – 3D – 2L.
Prediction
Mariners will try but in the end this should be comfortable for Wellington. Wellington 3-0.
BACK – Wellington -1 in the Asian Handicap market at 2.1+ for 3 units
Match Overview
Brisbane went down 0-1 to Melbourne City last week but once again showed they are very difficult to break down and were not out of the contest at any stage. They are at full strength and the possible only negative is a return to playing at Suncorp given their last match was at Redcliffe in front of a full house.
After defeating Sydney 1-0 at Kogarah last week the Wanderers have now won 3 and drawn 1 since new coach Jean-Paul De Marigny has taken over. They were good last week and for large parts made Sydney look insipid which is a strong form reference. They lose Daniel Georgievski to suspension but get Keanu Baccus back. They too have shown they are a much tighter ship defensively in the last 4 matches.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Brisbane | WSW |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 19 | 18 |
| Points | 26 (6) | 24 (7) |
| Win | 7 (6) | 7 (6) |
| Draw | 5 (3) | 3 (5) |
| Lost | 7 (7) | 8 (6) |
| Goals Scored | 20 (10) | 24 (7) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.1 (10) | 10.8 (4) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 4.2 (9) | 4.4 (7) |
| Goals Conceded | 23 (5) | 25 (6) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 10.4 (5) | 10.8 (8) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.7 (5) | 4.9 (8) |
| Clean Sheets | 5 (2) | 3 (8) |
| Over 2.5 | 6 (11) | 9 (9) |
| Under 2.5 | 13 (1) | 9 (3) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.25 (10) | 0.3 (8) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.26 (2) | 0.28 (4) |
Statistics Comment
Very similar teams. Brisbane still bucking the trend and have clearly the most under 2.5 games at 13 of 19. Western Sydney also in the top 3 in that stat.
Prediction
This appears to be a very tight match with little separating the teams. Draw 1-1.
BACK – Back Under 2.5 goals at 1.9+ for 3 units
Match Overview
Victory were too good in the end for Adelaide United winning 2-1 at Marvel Stadium. They have been on the improve the last few weeks however that little run may be severely impeded here with Adama Traore and Robbie Kruse missing.
Sydney were dreadful against Western Sydney last week. Naturally hard for them to be up for it every match with a 10 point lead and 2 games in hand but they were very flat. Paulo Retre returns which is an important addition as it will like mean Adrian Caceres can replace Alex Baumjohann on the right wing who was extremely poor last week.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Vic | Syd |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 19 | 17 |
| Points | 20 (9) | 43 (1) |
| Win | 5 (9) | 14 (1) |
| Draw | 5 (3) | 1 (9) |
| Lost | 9 (3) | 2 (11) |
| Goals Scored | 23 (8) | 37 (1) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.7 (7) | 9.5 (8) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 3.9 (10) | 5.4 (3) |
| Goals Conceded | 28 (9) | 14 (2) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 9.1 (2) | 9.1 (2) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.1 (2) | 4.1 (2) |
| Clean Sheets | 5 (2) | 5 (2) |
| Over 2.5 | 12 (4) | 12 (4) |
| Under 2.5 | 7 (6) | 5 (9) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.31 (6) | 0.41 (1) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.36 (10) | 0.2 (1) |
Statistics Comment
Both tight defensive teams however it seems to matter little when it comes to ‘Big Blue’ matches with 16 of 27 matches in Melbourne and 30 of 53 all-time seeing over 2.5 goals. Adelaide matches continue to be very open and it is no shock to see 15 of 18 as over 2.5 goals. 7 of 18 have been over 3.5 goals.
Prediction
Sydney demolished Victory 3-0 just 4 matches ago. They are both trending a little differently now but Sydney are still a superior lineup. Sydney 2-1
BACK – Sydney to win at 2.3+ for a risk of 1.5 units
Match Overview
City had the week off last week so will come into this fresh for the break. They lost 2 of their previous 3 against Wellington and Adelaide either side of a dominant derby win. Harrison Delbridge is a positive return from injury.
Brisbane were good value for their 1-1 draw with Perth last week and continue to show how effective their formation is in strangling their opposition. They have a fully fit squad to choose from.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | City | Brisbane |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 18 | 18 |
| Points | 30 (2) | 26 (6) |
| Win | 9 (2) | 7 (6) |
| Draw | 3 (5) | 5 (3) |
| Lost | 6 (7) | 6 (7) |
| Goals Scored | 32 (2) | 20 (9) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 12.1 (3) | 9.4 (7) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 5.7 (2) | 4.3 (8) |
| Goals Conceded | 27 (7) | 22 (4) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 9.7 (4) | 10.3 (5) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.4 (4) | 4.7 (5) |
| Clean Sheets | 4 (5) | 5 (2) |
| Over 2.5 | 14 (2) | 6 (11) |
| Under 2.5 | 4 (9) | 12 (1) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.31 (6) | 0.26 (9) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.34 (8) | 0.26 (2) |
Statistics Comment
City hold a small advantage in attacking output, but both are very similar when it comes to defensive stability. Brisbane shots against and goals conceded is even stronger when we consider they have conceded 10 goals in just 3 matches with City (4-3 win and 2-2 draw) and the 1-5 loss to Sydney.
Prediction
City far too short in this match against a team very hard to break down. Brisbane 2-1.
LAY – City up to $1.8 for a risk of 3 units
Match Overview
The re-arranged round 18 fixture starts the weekend and it should be a fantastic match.
Sydney eased to a 3-0 win at the Mariners last week. They do have the quick turnaround from having played Sunday night and lose Paulo Retre to suspension.
Hard to see who deputises in the holding midfield role but with Alex Baumjohann back from his suspension I am guessing Adrian Caceres drops back to that position with Baumjohann into the wide right position. This will produce an incredibly attacking setup for Sydney
Western Sydney won a topsy turvy match against Adelaide 5-2. Has to be noted Adelaide were severely under-strength but at the same time, the Wanderers do appear to have turned a corner after their long period of struggles post their bright start.
Wanderers beat Sydney in the home teams only loss so far this season.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Sydney | WSW |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 16 | 17 |
| Points | 43 (1) | 21 (7) |
| Win | 14 (1) | 6 (7) |
| Draw | 1 (9) | 3 (5) |
| Lost | 1 (11) | 8 (6) |
| Goals Scored | 37 (1) | 23 (6) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.4 (7) | 10.8 (4) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 5.3 (3) | 4.4 (7) |
| Goals Conceded | 13 (2) | 25 (6) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 9.1 (2) | 10.8 (7) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.1 (2) | 4.9 (7) |
| Clean Sheets | 5 (2) | 2 (10) |
| Over 2.5 | 12 (3) | 9 (7) |
| Under 2.5 | 4 (9) | 8 (4) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.44 (1) | 0.31 (6) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.2 (1) | 0.3 (5) |
Statistics Comment
Sydney still a dominant ladder leader. They along with Perth are the only 2 teams to have a higher than 50% rate of shots on target compared to total shots, so it is no fluke that they then convert at such a high rate due to the quality of chances they create.
Western Sydney are improving but again have not had a serious challenge for 3 weeks. Still only 2 clean sheets for the season against the hottest attack.
Prediction
Should be a good game with a terrific atmosphere. Sydney too much quality in final third. Sydney 3-1.
BACK – Sydney -0.75 in the Asian Handicap market at $1.9+ for 2 units
Match Overview
Victory are starting to find some sort of form albeit hard to see it in the result of a 1-1 draw at Newcastle such is the low base they are coming off. They only had 35% of possession last start, a far cry from the teams that used to like to dominate in possession.
Adelaide lost to Wanderers but were well down on troops. They get James Troisi back into the squad but lose Ben Halloran and are still missing Ryan Strain and Stefan Mauk which hurts them.
Key Statistics
| 2019/20 Statistics (ranking) | Victory | Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 18 | 18 |
| Points | 17 (9) | 27 (5) |
| Win | 4 (9) | 9 (2) |
| Draw | 5 (3) | 0 (11) |
| Lost | 9 (2) | 9 (2) |
| Goals Scored | 21 (8) | 32 (2) |
| Total Shots For (p/match) | 9.2 (9) | 12.6 (2) |
| Shots on Target For (p/m) | 3.7 (11) | 5.1 (4) |
| Goals Conceded | 27 (7) | 32 (9) |
| Total Shots Against (p/m) | 9.1 (2) | 12.8 (10) |
| Shots on Target Against (p/m) | 4.1 (2) | 5.8 (10) |
| Clean Sheets | 5 (2) | 3 (8) |
| Over 2.5 | 11 (5) | 15 (1) |
| Under 2.5 | 7 (6) | 3 (11) |
| Shots On Conversion Rate | 0.31 (6) | 0.35 (3) |
| Shots On Concession Rate | 0.36 (10) | 0.3 (5) |
Statistics Comment
Victory output continues to struggle. They are reasonably strong in defence which is their saving grace.
Adelaide matches continue to be very open and it is no shock to see 15 of 18 as over 2.5 goals. 7 of 18 have been over 3.5 goals.
Prediction
Typical open Adelaide match that Victory may be able to take advantage of. Victory 3-2.
BACK – Victory to win at $2.0+ for 2 units
BACK – Over 3.5 goals at $2.0+ for 1 unit
| 2018/19 Stats (Rank in brackets) | Adelaide |
|---|---|
| Points | 44 (4) |
| Win | 12 (4) |
| Draw | 8 (1) |
| Loss | 7 (2) |
| Goals For | 37 (9) |
| Goals Against | 32 (3) |
| Total Shots For p/match | 14.1 (3) |
| Shots on Target For p/m | 4.7 (7) |
| Total Shots Against p/m | 12.6 (4) |
| Shots on Target Against p/m | 4.2 (4) |
| Clean Sheets | 8 (3) |
| Over 2.5 | 12 (9) |
| Under 2.5 | 15 (1) |
| Shots on Target Conversion | 0.29 (10) |
| Shots On Target Concession | 0.28 (5) |
Adelaide were incredibly unlucky to go out at the Preliminary Final stage last year after losing on penalties to Perth. They have had an interesting off season with new coach Gertjan Verbeek coming in to replace Victory-bound Marco Kurz.
The Reds struggled for goals for the last three seasons and unless Kristian Opseth can produce, I’m once again querying their premiership potential as they won’t produce enough goals. They also look a little short on defensive options.
Once again bottom half of the top 6 looks to be their maximum finish.
Predicted Finish: 6th
| 2018/19 Stats (Rank in brackets) | Brisbane |
|---|---|
| Points | 18 (9) |
| Win | 4 (9) |
| Draw | 6 (4) |
| Loss | 17 (9) |
| Goals For | 38 (8) |
| Goals Against | 71 (10) |
| Total Shots For p/match | 12.1 (9) |
| Shots on Target For p/m | 4.2 (9) |
| Total Shots Against p/m | 17 (10) |
| Shots on Target Against p/m | 6.3 (9) |
| Clean Sheets | 3 (9) |
| Over 2.5 | 21 (1) |
| Under 2.5 | 6 (10) |
| Shots on Target Conversion | 0.34 (4) |
| Shots On Target Concession | 0.42 (10) |
Brisbane were terrible last season. In hard times, some pray to God and, well, perhaps Robbie “God” Fowler as the manager might be the answer. Certainly in their FFA Cup win over Sydney FC, there was plenty to like about the new look Roar.
With 16 players in and out it will take time to get a feel for them. I’m expecting Aiden O’Neill and Jay O’Shea to have big seasons in the attacking third.
They have to tighten up the defence after setting an A-League record for conceding the most goals in one season. They are the biggest query heading into the competition.
Predicted Finish: 8th
| 2018/19 Stats (Rank in brackets) | CC |
|---|---|
| Points | 13 (10) |
| Win | 3 (10) |
| Draw | 4 (9) |
| Loss | 20 (10) |
| Goals For | 31 (10) |
| Goals Against | 70 (9) |
| Total Shots For p/match | 10.8 (10) |
| Shots on Target For p/m | 3.7 (10) |
| Total Shots Against p/m | 16 (8) |
| Shots on Target Against p/m | 6.3 (9) |
| Clean Sheets | 1 (10) |
| Over 2.5 | 18 (2) |
| Under 2.5 | 9 (8) |
| Shots on Target Conversion | 0.31 (8) |
| Shots On Target Concession | 0.41 (9) |
Since the departure of Graham Arnold, the Mariners have finished (10,10,8,10,8). New Coach Alen Stajcic started his caretaker role with an F3 derby win. They certainly were better performed in those last six games of the season but now the real hard work begins.
The Mariners have suffered massive losses in Aiden O’Neill and Matt Millar and they will be heavily reliant on new midfielders Milan Duric and Kim Eun-Sun to drive what looks to be a very average strike force.
Hoping the best but fearing the worst.
Predicted Finish: 11th
| 2018/19 Stats (Rank in brackets) | City |
|---|---|
| Points | 40 (5) |
| Win | 11 (5) |
| Draw | 7 (2) |
| Loss | 9 (5) |
| Goals For | 39 (7) |
| Goals Against | 32 (3) |
| Total Shots For p/match | 13.1 (6) |
| Shots on Target For p/m | 4.4 (8) |
| Total Shots Against p/m | 10.1 (1) |
| Shots on Target Against p/m | 3.6 (2) |
| Clean Sheets | 9 (2) |
| Over 2.5 | 12 (9) |
| Under 2.5 | 15 (1) |
| Shots on Target Conversion | 0.33 (5) |
| Shots On Target Concession | 0.33 (7) |
With the City Group scouting network at their disposal, Melbourne City have generally done well in the recruiting of foreigners to the team. They look to do so again with four of their five visa players joining this season.
Coach Erik Mombaerts takes over and he has a very interesting history particularly working with the young French teams in a period when they excelled. The loss of Ritchie De Laet will hurt but aside from that they look to have recruited well.
Jamie Maclaren is their key player as he will need to score the bulk of goals for the team and, having scored five in nine to finish the season, I think he will more than fit the bill. With respect to last season it has to be remembered they spent much of it with no striker given the standoff between then Coach Warren Joyce and Bruno Fornaroli.
Predicted Finish: 3rd
| 2018/19 Stats (Rank in brackets) | Victory |
|---|---|
| Points | 50 (3) |
| Win | 15 (3) |
| Draw | 5 (7) |
| Loss | 7 (2) |
| Goals For | 50 (2) |
| Goals Against | 32 (3) |
| Total Shots For p/match | 12.3 (8) |
| Shots on Target For p/m | 4.9 (4) |
| Total Shots Against p/m | 14.5 (7) |
| Shots on Target Against p/m | 4.4 (5) |
| Clean Sheets | 6 (5) |
| Over 2.5 | 16 (4) |
| Under 2.5 | 11 (6) |
| Shots on Target Conversion | 0.38 (1) |
| Shots On Target Concession | 0.27 (2) |
For the first time in their history, the Victory enter a season without Kevin Muscat as player or coach. Marco Kurz comes across from Adelaide to try and straighten up a Victory team that has really finished strongly in the transfer market.
Returning Adama Traore and Andrew Nabbout could turn out to be the key men, along with Ola Toivanen.
Stats last year were relatively strong bar the fact they were over-reliant on SOT Conversion.
I expect they will be strong again. That said coach Marko Kurz would want the team to find early form as they Victory fans won’t stand for a drop-in intensity. Thankfully I think he is a man that can carry them forward.
Predicted Finish: 5th
| 2018/19 Stats (Rank in brackets) | Newcastle |
|---|---|
| Points | 35 (7) |
| Win | 10 (7) |
| Draw | 5 (7) |
| Loss | 12 (7) |
| Goals For | 40 (6) |
| Goals Against | 36 (6) |
| Total Shots For p/match | 16.2 (1) |
| Shots on Target For p/m | 4.7 (6) |
| Total Shots Against p/m | 13.5 (5) |
| Shots on Target Against p/m | 5 (7) |
| Clean Sheets | 6 (5) |
| Over 2.5 | 13 (8) |
| Under 2.5 | 14 (3) |
| Shots on Target Conversion | 0.31 (6) |
| Shots On Target Concession | 0.26 (1) |
Newcastle fell from 2nd to 7th last season and spent much of the season wasting forward opportunities by not converting their position as the top rank shots per match without converting.
I query Dimi Petratos as the man to convert the possession and as such, they will be reliant on Panamanian striker Abdiel Arroyo to get the goals.
I expect defender Johnny Koutroumbis to have a very strong season and the addition of Matt Millar is big. The Jets are likely to improve, if not compete for the top of the table.
Predicted Finish: 7th
| 2018/19 Stats (Rank in brackets) | Perth |
|---|---|
| Points | 60 (1) |
| Win | 18 (1) |
| Draw | 6 (4) |
| Loss | 3 (1) |
| Goals For | 56 (1) |
| Goals Against | 23 (1) |
| Total Shots For p/match | 14.1 (4) |
| Shots on Target For p/m | 5.8 (1) |
| Total Shots Against p/m | 10.2 (2) |
| Shots on Target Against p/m | 3.1 (1) |
| Clean Sheets | 12 (1) |
| Over 2.5 | 14 (6) |
| Under 2.5 | 13 (4) |
| Shots on Target Conversion | 0.36 (3) |
| Shots On Target Concession | 0.27 (4) |
In the loss of Keogh, Davidson and Lowry, Perth have lost a big part of their Premiership winning team from last season.
On the flip side, they have added quality headlined by Bruno Fornaroli. I just hope for Perth’s sake that he doesn’t fall foul of the Popovic training regime. I expect a big return for Osama Malik who will add further starch to their defensive midfield position.
Statistically, there’s little to improve on and with a second pre-season under that Popovic fitness regime, we can expect they will be there or thereabouts about again.
Predicted Finish: 1st
| 2018/19 Stats (Rank in brackets) | Sydney |
|---|---|
| Points | 52 (2) |
| Win | 16 (2) |
| Draw | 4 (9) |
| Loss | 7 (2) |
| Goals For | 43 (4) |
| Goals Against | 29 (2) |
| Total Shots For p/match | 13.9 (5) |
| Shots on Target For p/m | 5.1 (3) |
| Total Shots Against p/m | 11 (3) |
| Shots on Target Against p/m | 3.6 (2) |
| Clean Sheets | 8 (3) |
| Over 2.5 | 14 (6) |
| Under 2.5 | 13 (4) |
| Shots on Target Conversion | 0.31 (7) |
| Shots On Target Concession | 0.3 (6) |
In the first season of the Steve Corica coaching reign, Sydney finished 2nd on the ladder before winning the Grand Final on penalties. Their stats were not great but they had the quality when it mattered.
Their transfers largely leave them as strong as they were last season and with Alex Baumjohann and Kosta Barbarouses coming in they have an attacking midfield that is the envy of the other teams.
I expect they will play a more attacking brand this season, potentially dispensing with the pair of number 8s to be more attack-minded. There’s little doubt they will be towards the top of the ladder come round 29.
Predicted Finish: 2nd
| 2018/19 Stats (Rank in brackets) | WSW |
|---|---|
| Points | 24 (8) |
| Win | 6 (8) |
| Draw | 6 (4) |
| Loss | 15 (8) |
| Goals For | 42 (5) |
| Goals Against | 54 (8) |
| Total Shots For p/match | 15.5 (2) |
| Shots on Target For p/m | 5.1 (2) |
| Total Shots Against p/m | 13.6 (6) |
| Shots on Target Against p/m | 5 (6) |
| Clean Sheets | 4 (7) |
| Over 2.5 | 18 (2) |
| Under 2.5 | 9 (8) |
| Shots on Target Conversion | 0.3 (9) |
| Shots On Target Concession | 0.4 (8) |
The Wanderers started their life with ladder positions of (1,2,9,2) and in the year they finished 9th they won the Asian Champions League. Subsequently, they have finished (6,7,8). The timeline coincides with not only the loss of Coach Tony Popovic but also the loss of their fortress at Parramatta Stadium.
I expect they will turn Bankwest into a fortress provided they can re-engage with the RBB, and I think they will. Many of their stats last season belied their lowly finish and I expect this to turn around.
Predicted Finish: 4th
| 2018/19 Stats (Rank in brackets) | Wellington |
|---|---|
| Points | 40 (5) |
| Win | 11 (5) |
| Draw | 7 (2) |
| Loss | 9 (5) |
| Goals For | 48 (3) |
| Goals Against | 43 (7) |
| Total Shots For p/match | 13.1 (6) |
| Shots on Target For p/m | 4.8 (5) |
| Total Shots Against p/m | 16.7 (9) |
| Shots on Target Against p/m | 5.9 (8) |
| Clean Sheets | 4 (7) |
| Over 2.5 | 16 (4) |
| Under 2.5 | 11 (6) |
| Shots on Target Conversion | 0.37 (2) |
| Shots On Target Concession | 0.27 (3) |
Wellington have introduced Ufuk Talay as the new manager. Josip Skoko described talay as the best player never to play for Australia, and as someone who had his own battles against the man once upon a time, I can say I expect he will make a great success of the management business.
He has assembled a squad of young players to replace the likes of Sarpeet Singh, Roy Krishna and Filip Kurto. I love the idea but just hope he is given time to adapt to such a squad.
With few striking options, David Ball presents as the key man. I am hoping they do better than I think they will.
Predicted Finish: 9th
They’re a new team into the competition this season I like the promotion of coach Mark Rudan to A-League level.
They have compiled a squad skewed to attacking strength. Alessandro Diamanti was still reasonably prolific last season for Livorno in the Serie B. He should link well with the likes of Panagiotis Kone, Scott McDonald and Besart Berisha.
Their defence is lacking and I expect Filip Kurto will have to carry them to some extent. Naturally, as a new team, they’re a query but they shouldn’t be the worst.
Predicted Finish: 10th
BACK – Perth Glory to win the A-League
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Total Units Returned: 133.85
ROI: -19.22%
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