Expert Weekly A-League Predictions

Sydney FC v Melbourne City

Grand Final Stats

• Under 2.5 goals in 10 of 14 matches with an average of 2 goals per match
• Home teams have lifted the trophy 9 of 12 times (2 Neutral Venues)
• Home teams have won 6 of 12 in normal time with 5 draws and 1 away win
• Including Neutral Grand Finals 5 of 14 matches have gone to extra time of those 4 have been decided by penalties
• Sydney has won 4 previous Grand Finals. City is appearing in their first.

Match Overview

Sydney found their pre-restart form to easily dispose of Perth 2-0 in their Semi-Final. Perth was poor and so it is hard to predict if this match was a good indicator for what will be a much tougher opposition in City. As noted prior to the Semi-Final it was understandable that Sydney was down on performance since the restart given the Premier’s Plate was a near certainty.

City had a much tougher match against Western United and was arguably lucky to win the match in the end. A tired challenge from Aaron Calver providing a penalty when United was virtually in complete control.

They do not have to deal with a player quite like Alessandro Diamanti in the Grand Final however Sydney does have plenty of their own class led by Milos Ninkovic. Given that was only City’s 4^th match since the restart and the fact their final league match was a training run then we can expect City to improve again for the run.

Neither team has any injury concerns coming into the match so we should see them both at full-strength except for Scott Jamieson for City who opted not to re-join the squad after the birth of his first baby.

Both teams tend to attack down their right sides. Sydney via Rhyan Grant pushing forward and City with the width of Lachlan Wales. That said Sydney often looks for Milos Ninkovic who tends to tuck in more centrally as an initial outlet. Throughout the Semi-Final City tended to be very direct, not afraid of bypassing their midfield, this tactic will not work against Sydney.

Sydney should find some joy attacking both City wingbacks and I expect this will be where they might win the match. City on the other hand needs to try to expose Joel King, however, with the protection he gets from Ninkovic and Alex Wilkinson this will not be easy.

Key Statistics

Statistics Comment

As noted, Sydney was poor since the restart regressing in all categories. City on the other hand, has improved statistically. I am more inclined to stick to the larger set of numbers represented by the pre-restart statistics. Sydney has a narrow advantage in that department. Particularly their conversion and concession rates.

They have met twice this season for a win apiece. Their most recent match was a comfortable win for City with Grant the X-Factor missing from that match.

Prediction

Sydney likely holds too many guns for City and can maintain the home ground advantage of Grand Finalists. Sydney 2-0.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Sydney to win at 2.1+ for 1.5 units

BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 1.8+ for 1.5 units