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EXPERT TIPS: A-LEAGUE

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Tony Hargraves

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Back Newcastle for 1 unit @ $2.24

Adelaide are just so poor away from home, I can see the jets taking all three points and inflicting further pain to Adelaide’s very poor season.

Tony Hargraves

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Back Draw for 1 unit @ $4.00

Tony Hargraves

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Lay Brisbane for 2 units @ $1.90

With excellent away form, and playing at a small stadium (Ballymore) with a 6000 capacity, I can see 4th placed Macarthur getting a win here at an excellent price against an 8th placed Brisbane. I will lay Brisbane rather than back Macarthur as this way if it ends in a draw, we get the biscuits.

Tony Hargraves

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Lay Western Sydney Wanderers for 1 unit @ $2.70

Perth are unbeaten in four at home and are in decent form, and Wanderers are coming off their worst result of the season. I could back Perth but laying Wanderers keeps the draw onside and as long as both teams score, we won’t lose on the match.

Tony Hargraves

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Back both teams to score YES for 2 units @ $1.53

Adelaide United vs Western United

Friday 7.45pm

Adelaide finally stopped their freefall from 2nd place to 11th with a win last week that has them in 9th place. They will be eyeing another three points here at home to the bottom placed side but they are no good things to get it. Having won just one of their past six at home, and that win was thanks to a 98th minute goal against Sydney, a win for Western United is not beyond the realms of possibility. They did beat Western Sydney Wanderers the last time they were away from home and I can see them winning this.

Their games mostly involve second half goals and their last five games had half time scores of 0-0 (ended 3-1), 1-0 (ended 2-2), 0-0 (ended 1-2), 0-1 (ended 0-2) and 1-1 (ended 3-3) so they play cautiously until they go behind then they throw everything at trying to get back into the game.

In 11 away games, Western have only been leading at half time once. Their only two wins this season, (the first away game and their most recent) ended 2-1 and 3-1 and both were 0-0 at half time.

There have been Over 3.5 goals in 7/11 Adelaide home matches and Over 2.5 goals in 10/12 Western Utd away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 11/13 Adelaide home matches. So we can fully expect goals again here.

Looking at the past five Head to Head we saw scores of 3-1, 0-1, 3-2, 4-2 and 2-1. If we look at all 10 games in the Head to Head we see eight had a first half goal and six had a second half goal.

Adelaide lead 5-2-3 in match outcomes. With 16 goals in their past four meetings and both sides desperate for a win, we can expect more here.

Betting Strategy

Back Over 2.5 goals for 3 units @ $1.50

Back Over 3.5 goals for 2 units @ $2.20

Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets

Saturday 5.30pm

There has been Over 2.5 goals in 17/20 Melbourne City home matches against bottom-six teams and in 6/8 Newcastle Jets away matches against middle-third teams. The Jets have lost 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

These teams rarely draw and in 14 Head to Head meetings, only one ended level. Melbourne have won four of the past five, and the only draw was two games back, and it ended 1-1. Eight of the past 10 games have been either 1-0 or 0-1 at half time so we can expect the usual one first half goal. In the 14 meetings, all 14 had a first half goal and 12 had a second half goal. Both teams scored in eight games and 10 went Over 2.5 with just three going Over 3.5 goals.

In 10 home games this season, Melbourne are 5-4-1 and the loss was the first home game of their season. Five of the 10 games at home ended the first half 0-0 but looking at Newcastle away, all 12 games have had first half goals. They have an away record of 2-4-6 so I do expect another loss here for them. Their past five away ended 2-2, 0-2, 3-3 and 0-4 and 2-3 so plenty of goals are going in and we should be able to land three here. When we see that 8/12 Newcastle away games went Over 3.5 goals, it looks a good value bet.

The two options here which stand out are Melbourne to win again and for the Over 2.5 to land .

Betting Strategy

Back Melbourne City for 2 units @ $1.65

Back Over 2.5 for 3 units @ $1.55

Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners

Saturday 7.45pm

This looks the game of the round. The Mariners have gone from last place after three rounds to sit second, and Sydney were last after two rounds to now sit fifth. A win for the Mariners will put them top of the league, possibly temporarily, as Wellington don’t play until Easter Sunday. Sydney have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-half teams while Central Coast have won 6/9 away matches against top-half teams. Sydney have lost 6/9 home matches against top-half teams.

Looking at the Head to Head past 13 games, Sydney are 8-2-3 and have won four of the past five meetings. The scores were 3-1, 3-2, 1-2, 5-0 and 3-2. That’s 22 goals in five games and with both sides currently flying, we can expect more of the same. In those games, 12 of the 13 had a first half goal and 10 of them had a second half goal. Both teams scored in eight and 9/13 went Over 2.5 and 6/13 went Over 3.5 but four of those six were in the past five meetings.

We strike a huge problem when we see the Mariners away form.

Looking at home and away form the Mariners are on fire with six wins in their past seven away from the Coast. Incredibly, they have not conceded a goal in seven away from home and in a bit of an anomaly for this league, in just one of 10 games away for the Mariners did we see both teams score. It is 6/10 for Sydney at home.

That puts me off the goals a bit. Before their two most recent home games, which both ended 1-1, Sydney won four straight, with 2-1, 4-0, 3-1 and 4-2 victories. That is in stark contrast to the Mariners games, where they looking for their eighth straight away clean sheet.

Betting Strategy

Back Central Coast Mariners for 1 unit @ $3.20

Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar

Sunday 11.00am

Wellington sit atop the table and have lost just once in the past 10 meetings against Brisbane.

Two of the past three meetings however, have been draws, 1-1 and 2-2. The five most recent scores were 1-1, 5-2, 2-2, 1-0 and 3-0. The game before that Brisbane won 2-1. In the 15 meetings Head to Head nine saw both teams score, and nine had a first half goal, with 13/15 having a second half goal. Only three of the 15 went Over 3.5 goals so I think the Over 2.5 will be our limit here. It comes down to price. Only 50% of Wellington home games went Over 2.5 and 60% of Brisbane away games went over this season. The Head to Head saw 8/15 go over so that’s 53% giving us an average of 54% for our price. That gives us a price of $1.85 for the Over 2.5 goals market and $2.17 for the Under 2.5 goals.

Betfair have the over at $1.60 and the under at $2.60 so the value bet is to either lay Over 2.5 or back under 2.5. It doesn’t matter which you do as they are effectively the same bet. If you back Under 2.5 you are effectively laying Over 2.5.

There have been Over 2.5 goals in 8/11 W Phoenix home matches against middle-third teams and in 13/19 Brisbane Roar away matches. Brisbane Roar have lost 12/19 away matches.

I can see this going over but we can’t take bad value odds so for this one we will head to the Match Odds markets. Wellington have won three of the past five and drawn the other two. Looking at the last 10, Brisbane have one win, four losses and five draws. If we look at games in Wellington only, we have seven of those with four home wins, and three draws.

 

Betting Strategy

Lay Brisbane Roar for 1 unit @ $3.60

I think there is a risk backing Wellington at $2.00 as they have won just two of the last five meetings here, but Brisbane have won none, and I am quite bullish that they won’t win here either. So we can lay Brisbane and keep the draw on our side.

Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory

Sunday 3.00pm

Perth are having a season to forget and have just five wins in 21 games and won’t be getting near the finals. Melbourne victory are in third place, just five behind Central Coast Mariners and need a win here to keep in touch with the top two.

The reason for Perth being where they are, is they have just one win away from home in the 10 games played away from Perth this season. They lost their first four away, then a draw, a loss and a win, then two draws and lost their last away game.

Melbourne could easily be in second place had they won their past four at home, instead of just one. The vital loss was the last one, to Central Coast Mariners and that allowed the Mariners to open that gap.

Three of their past five home games have been 0-0 at half time and the other two were 0-1 and 1-1. I don’t see many goals in this game. Only one of their nine home games went Over 3.5 goals and five of the nine saw both teams score.

Melbourne Victory have drawn the first half in 13/20 home matches and there have been Under 2.5 goals in 7/10 Victory home matches. Perth Glory have conceded first in 10/11 away matches against top-half teams.

I really like the look of both teams to score here and it has happened in 7/13 meetings and in 3/6 played in Melbourne.

With recent Perth away games ending 0-1, 3-3, 2-2, 2-1, 2-4, 2-2 and 2-3, I can see enough chances to end up with both teams scoring.

 

Betting Strategy

Back both teams to score YES for 2 units @ $1.73

Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers

Monday 3.00pm

Macarthur just keep churning out results and against the side just four points behind them, they will really want to try to get a decent buffer and cement their top four place. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 6/8 Macarthur home matches against top-half teams and Over 3.5 goals in 6/8 Western Sydney away matches against top-half teams.

There have been Over 2.5 goals in 6/8 Western Sydney away matches against top-half teams. I can see more goals here and a quick look at the Head to Head shows us why. The past five meetings were 4-3, 1-3, 2-2, 0-4 and 0-4. In fact, seven of their 10 meetings went Over 3.5 goals and seven of them went Over 2.5 and 9/10 were Over 1.5 so we can expect more of the same here.

Home form this season for Macarthur shows more draws than anything so we can’t rely on them winning. They are 4-5-3 in 12 games. Away from home, Western Sydney are 4-2-4 away and have no away draws in their past seven. Macarthur have no draws in their past four, but drew three in a row at home before that.

I am just going with the goals again here as these sides both concede and score quite freely.

Betting Strategy

Back Over 3.5 goals for 2 units @ $ 2.20

A-League 2024

The A League is Australia’s premier Men’s football competition, running since 2005. In recent seasons the competition has expanded to 12 teams with Western United winning the premiership last season in just their third year in the competition.

Betfair is the only betting agency to follow for the best and most accurate information and data, including A League tips, on the A League competition. As Australia’s largest betting exchange, Betfair is the leader when it comes to offering punters statistical analysis and observations that can help identify value-for-money considerations, including A League tips, historical data and the best back and lay bets for various categories in each game.

The first edition of the A League competition, which is run by the FFA, was played in the 2005-06 summer. Seven of the original teams remain in the competition: Melbourne Victory, Adelaide United, Brisbane Roar, Sydney FC, Newcastle Jets, Central Coast Mariners and Perth Glory. In the years since they’ve been joined by Melbourne City (formerly Melbourne Heart), Western United, Wellington Phoenix, Macarthur FC and the Western Sydney Wanderers.

Eight different teams have won the competition in the 17 year history, with Sydney FC claiming the most titles with five, ahead of Melbourne Victory with four and the Brisbane Roar who won the competition three times in four seasons from 2011-2014. Several of the competition’s biggest names recently took part in Australia’s bold 2022 World Cup campaign.

Betfair’s A League offerings are extensive and include A League tips for every game. Our data experts will provide detailed previews of each contest, including how history can dictate outcomes, form lines ‘spotlight’ players to consider wagering on, and key betting strategies. The specialist data, including free A League betting tips, is aimed at helping punters make the correct choices to extract maximum value from their A League wagering.

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A League football attracts big name local talent and a host of international imports, with the recent World Cup success casting the spotlight on the domestic competition. With the matches taking place in two countries, most capital cities and several regional centers, that interest is only likely to grow. Punters who enjoy the unpredictable nature of live sport can follow Betfair’s in-play betting options, which provide enticing value for spontaneous and unpredictable sports like football.

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