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EXPERT TIPS: FRENCH OPEN MEN’S FINAL

FRENCH OPEN 2023 – EXPERT TIPS AND PREDICTIONS – DAY 15

The expert tips and predictions on the French Open 2023 are brought to you by Betfair’s tennis analyst Ace Previews. Ace delivered a net profit of 57.23 units on 440 tips to the Betfair Hub in the 2022 calendar year – at an ROI of +12.42%. View his latest tips below!

Best Bets

BACK Djokovic -5.5 games vs Ruud (1 unit recorded at $1.90)

ATP FRENCH OPEN FINAL – DJOKOVIC VS RUUD

Fifteen days of Roland Garros main draw action comes to a close tonight, as Novak Djokovic battles Casper Ruud for the title.

Regardless of your thoughts on Ruud, his ability to reach three of the last 5 grand slam finals is indeed impressive. He simply looked overwhelmed last year against Nadal in the final, before an improved showing against Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open. For all the question marks about his form across the majority of the clay season, he has epitomised the ability to peak at the right time here. After some down patches in his early rounds, including being on the ropes against Zhang early, Ruud has looked very solid through his last couple of rounds, culminating in a dominant performance against Alexander Zverev in the semi final. Ruud was one of my trading selections coming into the tournament, however as dominant as he has been through his last few matches, he again faces a top name in the final.

What is there that is left to say about Novak Djokovic? The saying goes that first Djokovic takes your legs, and then he takes your soul, and Carlos Alcaraz found that out the other day. It was a supreme physical performance from Novak, and set the tone for him coming into another grand slam final. I don’t think Ruud is going to provide Djokovic with anything here that he hasn’t already handled along the way this fortnight, and given I have this handicapped at -6.5 games to the Serbian, a small play on the -5.5 games appeals.

Thanks for following along for another grand slam. We head to the grass season now, and weekly previews will kick off again tomorrow!

TRADING THOUGHTS- MEN’S SINGLES

The second grand slam of the year is here, with the tour heading to Paris for the biggest clay court tournament of the year. This year the tournament looks a little different to many of the recent editions, with one Rafael Nadal missing from the main draw. Nevertheless, another Spaniard has assumed the mantle of tournament favourite, with Carlos Alcaraz at the top of the betting market coming off some impressive tennis over the last 18 months.

The other name commanding the most attention in the draw is Novak Djokovic, sitting on the second line of betting on the exchange. Let’s take a quick look at each quarter and see if there is any value to consider from a trading perspective, and keep your eye on the Betfair Hub over the course of the next fortnight for daily match previews, plus general trading advice where there appears to be some value.

Quarter 1

The standout name here in the draw is Carlos Alcaraz, who should at the very least find his way into the second week of the tournament without breaking too much of a sweat. The biggest threat in terms of opposition between the start of the tournament and the quarter finals stage is Cameron Norrie or Lorenzo Musetti, however the best-of-5 should suit Alcaraz against either opponent.

The pre-tournament price on Stefanos Tsitsipas was trickling towards single figures, until the 5th seed drew to be in the same quarter as Alcaraz and the same half as Djokovic. Looking at the players around him in the draw however, I do feel he presents some trading value through the first week. To be able to challenge Alcaraz on the clay, it’s a big help to have a strong first serve capable of generating *some* cheap points. Looking at the form of the others in his section, Tsitsipas should be able to find his way to the last eight.

Of the rest, outside of a run from Norrie or Musetti, which wouldn’t be the worst thing for a Tsitsipas trade, it’s hard to see any players making a very deep run, barring Fognini or Schwartzman turning back the clock.

Predicted 4th Round Match-ups

Alcaraz vs Musetti

Fognini/Korda vs Tsitsipas

 

Predicted ¼ Final Match-up

Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas

 

Quarter 2

With Djokovic falling to the third set, he had a 50/50 chance of falling in the same half of the draw as Alcaraz. It’s likely to be a big test for Djokovic, however there are a couple of interesting names in this section of the draw that are capable of putting up some resistance. I’d rather look at Alejandro Davidovich Fokina match-to-match than in the outright, such is his inconsistency in his level across the course of a week or fortnight. Hubert Hurkacz had a tricky first round against veteran David Goffin, and in the bottom section of the draw, I have Andrey Rublev a little under the odds currently in the outright market. Karen Khachanov started slowly, but is in a decent section of the draw, and should be able to progress to at least the 4th round given his form and grand slam experience, so is worth considering for a small trade. There are some unseeded players such as Stan Wawrinka who could shake things up with an upset win, however I am not sure about their viability from a trading perspective. Djokovic and Khachanov are the most appealing here.

Predicted 4th Round Match-ups

Djokovic vs Bautista Agut

Khachanov vs Rublev

 

Predicted ¼ Final Match-up

Djokovic vs Khachanov

 

Quarter 3

Holger Rune and Casper Ruud sit at the top of the market in the third quarter. Rune was an outright selection for me from a few weeks ago, and the draw has been relatively kind to him. However, he is still largely unproven at the pointy end of best-of-5 grand slam tennis, even with his success at Masters 1000 level, so I am still a little wary. The likes of Taylor Fritz and Miomir Kecmanovic could provide a challenge of sorts to Rune, however he should be able to find his way into the second week barring a major meltdown.

In the bottom half of this section, Ruud is the standout selection. He may face the likes of Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul on his way to the quarter finals, however the best-of-5 format and his consistency should hold him in good stead here.

Predicted 4th Round Match-ups

Rune vs Fritz

Paul/Jarry vs Ruud

 

Predicted ¼ Final Match-up

Rune vs Ruud

 

Quarter 4

Jannik Sinner is another player I’ve backed in the months leading up to the tournament. His form and fitness has been a bit of a rollercoaster, however, like Rune, the draw has been relatively kind to him. He should be a heavy favourite in his first three matches (were he to progress that far), and is likely a solid favourite against Zverev/Tiafoe in the round of 16. I am comfortable holding my trading position on him for now, and may re-assess come the 4th round if he is still in the tournament.

I do feel as though Daniil Medvedev, as strong as his lead-up form has been, is a little short on the exchange. I have him way too short in round 1 against Seyboth Wild, however were he to progress there, I will have my eye on laying him come the 4th round. I don’t feel the best-of-5 on the clay is preferable for him, as he can still be a little wayward at times and lose concentration if things aren’t going well for him on the clay.

Of the rest of the names, France Tiafoe will be a tough out in best-of-5, and Borna Coric’s form has certainly lifted in the last couple of tournaments, which will give him a big confidence boost coming in here. I’m not sure of his ability to challenge the top names in the outrights, however may appeal at a price against Medvedev in a potential 4th round. The likes of Hugo Gaston  and Tomas Etcheverry could cause an upset or two, however I don’t see them being active at the pointy end of the tournament for outright purposes.

Predicted 4th Round Match-ups

Sinner vs Tiafoe

Coric vs Medvedev

Predicted ¼ Final Match-up

Sinner vs Coric

Overall Trading Thoughts

BACK

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Worth trading up until the ¼ final at the very least here.

Karen Khachanov – Worth a trade in the quarter winner and outright markets.

Casper Ruud – Another who should be able to push to the quarter finals here and should come in.

Holger Rune – I have him facing Ruud in the quarter finals, in what would be a good trading problem to have.

Jannik Sinner – Another worth considering, given his top level can challenge everyone in this draw.

 

LAY

Daniil Medvedev – I won’t lay just yet, although Seyboth Wild is a tricky first round opponent. Watch this space.

 

Please note: I have previously suggested Sinner, Rune and Tsitsipas. I would not suggest doubling up.

TRADING THOUGHTS- WOMEN’S SINGLES

WTA Trading Thoughts

Can anyone topple Iga? That is the big question here as the world number 1 looks to maintain her dominance over the tour of the clay. We last saw her retiring to Elena Rybakina a couple of weeks ago, so there is a slight unknown around her true fitness levels, so let’s take a look at the overall field and see if we can pick out any value.

Quarter 1

Iga Swiatek commands the attention at the top of the draw, and even with the fitness concerns, it’s hard to see her being troubled heavily in the first week, allowing her to build into the fortnight relatively comfortably. A potential 4th round meeting with past RG Champion Barbora Krejcikova would make for some interesting viewing, however looking through the rest of the quarter it’s hard to see major threats to her on the clay. Coco Gauff hasn’t displayed enough form recently for me to jump at her current odds, with Anhelina Kalinina one of the only other names that seems capable of a major upset. Madison Keys snuck past Kanepi in round 1 and is capable of upsets, however lacks the consistency you’d be looking for in a trading selection. I feel it might be better to just make a small selection on Kalinina to trade, and wait and see how Swiatek looks early.

Predicted 4th Round Match-ups

Swiatek vs Krejcikova

Kalinina vs anyone (wide open – Keys, or even Schmiedlova?!)

Predicted ¼ Final Match-up

Swiatek vs Kalinina

 

Quarter 2

To me this is one of the more interesting sections of the draw, with a lot of players with high ceilings finding their way into this section. It would be unwise to not discuss Elena Rybakina, sitting as the 4th seed (and should be higher given no points for her Wimbledon triumph last year). It’s not going to be the easier of runs for Rybakina, with the likes of Noskova/Kovinic, Rogers/Martic, Alexandrova/Haddad Maia all possible opponents between now and the quarter finals. With that being said, she should still be too strong on current form, and the outright price is worth trading

The bottom portion of the quarter provides a great opportunity for a number of players. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of Donna Vekic, Sorana Cirstea, Ons Jabeur or even Bernarda Pera making a push to the quarter finals here. It’s almost a little too open initially to find a strong entry point. Watch this space.

Predicted 4th Round Match-ups

Rybakina vs Alexandrova

Wide Open!

 

Predicted ¼ Final Match-up

Rybakina vs Jabeur/Cirstea/wide range of players

 

Quarter 3

We move away from the Swiatek half and find ourselves looking at a very wide open quarter here. Of the seeded players in this section you could make a case for Anastasia Potapova as the form player in this section. There are some tricky unseeded players in this section, including the likes of Karolina Muchova, Leylah Fernandez, Clara Tauson, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, and Camila Giorgi. I’ll start with a trade on Potapova in the central part of the quarter as a starting point.

Predicted 4th Round Match-ups

Muchova vs Tauson

Potapova vs Pegula

Predicted ¼ Final Match-up

Muchova vs Potapova

 

Quarter 4

There are more high-quality round 1 match-ups in this section, highlighted by number 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka facing off against Marta Kostyuk. It shapes as a tough contest first up, and since I consider Kostyuk value at current odds in that match-up, I might hold fire on any Sabalenka trade. I am keen to keep an eye on Sabalenka though, as her draw really does open up a touch were she to win round 1. Other threats between her and the quarter final stage all fall as potential 4th round opponents, with Pliskova, Stephens, Putintseva and Zheng all a chance to be across the net. I don’t think the form of Carolina Garcia has been strong enough to jump into any outright trades on her, leaving the top part of this quarter wide open. I’d consider a small trade on a player such as Elina Svitolina, who if she can overcome Trevisan in round 1, could make a push to the second week. The likes of Ostapenko, Vondrousova and Kasatkina are all in the same pocket. Kasatkina and Ostapenko are more than capable, however they lack the consistency of Vondrousova. That consistency appeals when considering outrights.

Predicted 4th Round Match-ups

Svitolina vs Vondrousova

Zheng vs Sabalenka

Predicted ¼ Final Match-up

Vondrousova vs Sabalenka

 

Trading Selections

Elena Rybakina

Marketa Vondrousova

Small – Anastasia Potapova

Small – Anhelina Kalinina

Hold off – Iga Swiatek

FRENCH OPEN 2023 TIPS

The French Open is the world’s most prestigious clay-court tennis tournament, played annually in late-May and early-June at Stade Roland-Garros in Paris. The tournament is the second of the four Grand Slam or major events held each year. Betfair is the premier site providing professional, data-driven analysis and expert information including French Open tips for all events and matches to help bettors familiarise themselves with an event that often throws up long and unpredictable battles that can ebb and flow depending on players’ ability to handle tough playing conditions.  

Betfair offers French Open betting tips for every event during the two-week tournament, including the men’s and women’s singles, the men’s and women’s doubles, the mixed doubles, and the wheelchair and junior events. Betfair’s expert analysis can help you get a better handle on likely match trends and outcomes. Our data and advice can guide punters to make astute decisions when considering categories including head-to-head match odds, correct set betting, set winners and the best back and lay bets. Betfair offers French Open tips and the ability to set your own odds for all events, as well as futures markets. When you register with Betfair, you’ll get access to in-depth, betting analysis on major upcoming tennis tournaments. You’ll also get to the largest betting exchange which allows you to bet differently with features such as lay betting and setting your own odds.

French Open matches are played on clay, a red brick dust surface that produces slow, high-bouncing play that tends to favour baseliners with strong, consistent groundstrokes, rather than serve-volleyers. The slow surface negates the advantage big-serving players usually have on faster courts. To be successful at the French Open, players need to be patient, have tactical and strategic nous, and must be extremely fit with supreme stamina to handle what are often long and drawn-out matches sometimes played in swirling winds and stifling heat. In 2004, French pair Fabrice Santoro and Arnaud Clement took six hours and 33 minutes (over two days) to complete their first-round match. At the time, it was the longest recorded match in professional tennis history. By studying Betfair’s French Open tennis tips offered as part of a broad range of betting information and analysis on the tournament, bettors can learn more about which players are better suited to playing in the unique conditions at Roland-Garros.

The two main events at the French Open, the men’s and women’s singles, each feature 128 players. Thirty-two players in each event are seeded according to world rankings, with matches decided in a pre-tournament draw. The seeded system typically keeps the higher ranked players from meeting into the earlier rounds, creating potential matchups of the top players to meet in the final rounds. Often though, big-name players suffer shock defeats in the early rounds of the French Open, beaten by low-profile or little-known players more accustomed to handling the conditions. Follow Betfair’s French Open tips today and use our trusted data to help you study and dissect players’ form and background to make informed betting decisions, particularly early in the tournament when upsets are likely. 

Spaniard Rafael Nadal is the most successful player of all-time at the French Open, having won the men’s singles title 13 times, including five straight from 2010-14 and four in a row on two other occasions. At the 2022 French Open, Nadal will be aiming to win his 22nd Grand Slam. Among those likely to challenge him are Serbian Novak Djokovic, the defending champion, young Spanish up-and-comer Carlos Alcaraz and Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas. On the women’s side, Poland’s Iga Swiatek, the new world number one, Romania’s Simona Halep, who won in 2018, and Spain’s Paula Badosa are expected to be in the thick of the action, with Czech Barbora Krejčíková, the 2021 winner, also likely to be in the mix.Make sure to follow Betfair’s French Open 2022 tips to help you understand likely outcomes in events and for professional guidance on which players to back or lay during the tournament.

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