EXPERT SOCCER TIPS: EPL

Newcastle v Bournemouth

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 4 units @ $1.70

This is a tough fixture for both sides. In the seven Head to Head meetings since Bournemouth came back to the Premier League, four of the past five have been drawn. Newcastle won the two meetings during Covid with no fans, 4-1, and 2-1, then season 21-22 were both 1-1 draws, season 23-24 was 0-1 and 2-2, and the meeting this season was 1-1. So in six of the seven meetings both teams scored. The three games in Newcastle ended 2-2, 1-1 and 2-1. The huge problem with the Both Teams to Score market here, is in the past seven home games for Newcastle, only one game saw both score, and that was the 3-3 with Liverpool. The other six games, saw just one team score. In four of those games it was Newcastle, and in the other two West Ham and Brighton both beat the home team and kept a clean sheet. In the past seven away games for Bournemouth, six games saw both score. The scores were 2-2, 2-2, 3-0, 2-1, 4-2, 2-3, 1-1.

Bournemouth games always seem to have goals, so based on that away record, and the fact 6/7 meetings Head to Head saw both score, I am jumping all over the Both Teams to Score (Yes) here.

Tony Hargraves

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Brentford v Liverpool

Betting Strategy

Back (Over/Under 3.5 goals) Over 3.5 goals for 2 units @ $2.00

We should see goals here. There have been Over 3.5 goals in 8/10 Brentford home matches and Over 2.5 goals in 9/10 Liverpool away matches against middle-third teams. Liverpool have won 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams. In the seven Head to Head meetings since Brentford came to the Premier League, the first was a 3-3 draw and since then, Liverpool have won five of the past six. They kept a clean sheet in four of them. Liverpool currently hold a four point lead with a game against Everton in hand, so effectively seven points. They have won 7/10 away games with three draws. Nine games had a first half goal and nine had a second half goal and 7/10 went Over 2.5 goals. Both teams scored in six games. For Brentford, they won five straight at home and then fell in a hole, losing to Nottingham Forest and Arsenal, before the most recent draw with Manchester City. Now they will complete their home games against the top four, but I can’t see them getting anything out of it. I can certainly see four goals though, and will happily back the Over 3.5 goals here.

Tony Hargraves

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Leicester v Fulham

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 4 units @ $1.75

So far the new Leicester manager has not had any positive impact on results. In the five home games Ruud van Nistelrooy has been manager, they won the first game against West Ham, then drew with Brighton and since then have lost three straight without scoring to Wolves (0-3), Manchester City (0-2) and Crystal Palace (0-2). He has been in charge for eight games in total, with one win, one draw and six losses. They look doomed to relegation unless things change very soon. This season away from home, Fulham games are always interesting. The past four were 2-3, 2-1, 2-2 and 1-1, so both teams usually score. For Leicester home games, both teams scored in seven of their first eight at home, but the past three games have seen the home side fail to hit the net. They have to be aggressive at home, as anything other than a win here leaves them in desperate trouble. In six of the past seven away games for Fulham, both sides have scored, so that’s the play here.

Tony Hargraves

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West Ham v Crystal Palace

Betting Strategy

Back (Over/Under 3.5 goals) Over 3.5 goals for 2 units @ $3.30

West Ham appointed Graham Potter days after dumping Julen Lopetegu as results were dire and he had a win first up this week beating Fulham 3-2 at home. In 11 home games this season, they are 4-2-5 after losing the first three, and the last game for poor old Lopetegu, was the 0-5 mauling to Liverpool. Crystal Palace are on a great run away from home, winning three of their past four, beating Leicester 2-0, drawing 0-0 with Bournemouth, a 3-1 win against Brighton and a 1-0 win against Ipswich. The Head to Head with West Ham, shows us a record of 3-3-5 for West Ham, winning just one of the past five, losing three and one draw. The scores were 2-0, 2-5, 1-1, 3-4 and 1-2. The games before that were 3-2, 2-2 and 3-2, so it’s a game usually full of goals. I can’t pick a winner here, as either side could win, and I think we will see plenty of action so I will go with the Over 3.5 goals.

Tony Hargraves

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Arsenal v Aston Villa

Betting Strategy

Lay (Match Odds) Draw for 1 unit @ $4.60

Arsenal have the scent in their nostrils again, after they beat Spurs on Sunday and Liverpool failed to beat Nottingham Forest. That cut the gap to four points (seven presuming Liverpool beat Everton in their spare game) and what looked a done deal three weeks ago, is now looking a bit shaky. Aston Villa are still in seventh place, thanks to a great start to the season, that has since tapered off. Villa had lost five straight away games, scoring just two goals in the process, and conceding 14, before they beat Everton 1-0 on Wednesday, which saw the return of David Moyes to Everton. Looking at the Head to Head in 11 games, there have been no draws. It is 6-5 to Arsenal, and it was losing both games last season that killed any hope of Arsenal winning the title. Arsenal won the four meetings before last season and also won the first meeting this season. It’s a bit too short to back them to win at $1.55 so I am playing it safe with a lay the draw play here.

Tony Hargraves

lay

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Everton v Tottenham

Betting Strategy

Lay (Match Odds) Everton for 2 units @ $3.00

The second match under Everton’s prodigal son manager, and he faces a Spurs manager with his own set of problems. Tottenham are in 14th place and a massive 23 points off Liverpool. Big Ange would have started the season with a minimum expectation of a Champions League place, and at this rate, he may not see the end of the season. This is a must win for him and Spurs. Everton have drawn the first half in 8/8 home matches against middle-third teams and there have been Under 2.5 goals in 11/15 Everton home matches. Spurs have won 7/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. It’s so hard to know where to look for this one. Spurs have won four of the past six meetings with two draws. In fact Everton have won just one of the 11 meetings since season 2019/20. Both teams scored in 5/11 but also three of the past four. The past five games (last two seasons and one game this season) ended 0-4, 2-2, 1-2 1-1 and 0-2. The best bet here is a lay of Everton. I can see them getting a draw, but not winning. Spurs beat them 4-0 this season and a repeat would not be a shock. A desperate game for both teams.

Tony Hargraves

lay

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Manchester United v Brighton

Betting Strategy

Lay (Match Odds) Draw for 1 unit @ $3.80

Manchester United were losing 1-0 to Southampton before Diallo had the greatest 12 minutes of his life and scored in the 82nd, 90th and 94th minutes to give his side a 3-1 win. The score is not a fair reflection of the game, and they were nearly humiliated at home. The Head to Head past 11 games show the first five were all Manchester United wins, then four Brighton wins, then a 2-0 United win and this season was a 2-1 win for Brighton. So like the Arsenal and Villa stats, 11 games, six wins for United and five for Brighton, with no draws. After nearly losing to Southampton, I can’t back United, but I don’t want to lay them at home either. They lost the three home games before this one, and Brighton away games show a 2-0 win against Ipswich this week, and before that were three draws. They were 2-1, 1-1 and 2-2 against Aston Villa, West Ham and Leicester. Only one of the 11 home games for United this season was a draw, plus the 11 Head to Head we had no draws, so I am laying the draw here.

Tony Hargraves

lay

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Nottingham Forest v Southampton

Betting Strategy

Back (Match Odds) Nottingham Forest for 3 units @ $1.43

There is nothing to do here other than back Nottingham Forest to win. They should be $1.10 at home against this rabble, and we can get $1.43, so we can just take the 43% interest on our money and move on. There are only three Head to Head games and Forest won them all. There were two games ending 1-0 and the other was 4-3. This season away, Saints have nine losses and two draws from 11 games. Forest drew 1-1 with Liverpool (and were the better side) and before that had three home wins. The only option here is back Forest. This should not be an even contest.

Tony Hargraves

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Ipswich v Manchester City

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.82

In the reverse fixture City won 4-1 and were leading 3-1 and nothing but another City win is expected here. Ipswich have just one win at home this season, a 2-0 win against Chelsea. They lost three straight at home before that, and also lost 0-2 to Brighton this week. In an incredible statistic, City have won just one of their past seven away games, and that has cost them any hope of another title. That win was 2-0 against a hopeless Leicester side. The fact that City have just three wins in their past 12 Premier League matches is astonishing, given the talent they have, although they have just 10 wins from 21 games this season, Ipswich only have three, so I can’t even go for an upset. City should win, and as six of their past seven games have seen both teams score, and Ipswich have scored in 13/21 games this season, (City have scored in 19/21) I am going with yes in the Both Teams to Score market.

Tony Hargraves

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Chelsea v Wolves

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.70

Chelsea really should win this at home. Wolves have had L/L double results in 8/11 away matches against top-six teams and they have lost 9/11 away matches against top-six teams. Chelsea have won 12/20 home games. The big problem in backing them, is Wolves have won three of the past four meetings. The past five scores between them were (Chelsea first) 6-2, 2-4, 1-2, 0-1 and 3-0.
Chelsea are stuttering at home, with a recent 2-2 draw with Bournemouth, which followed a 1-2 loss to Fulham. They did beat Brentford and Aston Villa before those games though. Wolves have one away win in their past five and their past three away saw a 0-3 loss to Newcastle, a 2-2 draw with Spurs, and they beat Leicester 3-0.
It’s a very tough game to bet in, as the Over 2.5 is $1.40 and Chelsea is also $1.40. The Both Teams to Score (yes) is about $1.70 so I will have a small crack at that. It’s good value and covers most options for us.

Tony Hargraves

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EPL TIPS