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Sinner vs Medvedev

It all comes down to this. Two players with very different styles and very different paths to the final meet to see who will claim their first Australian Open title.

Let’s start by taking a look at Jannik Sinner, who has been largely untroubled on his way to the final. He has dropped just the one set, a third set tiebreak to Novak Djokovic, and has comfortably been the form player for the entire tournament. He looked to be back to his best physically in the semi final, after some struggles against Rublev, and although Djokovic admitted it was one of his worst grand slam performances in recent memory, full credit to Sinner for being able to finish off the world number 1. He now comes into his first grand slam final, now in uncharted territory and $1.38.

He faces Daniil Medvedev, who has had his back against the wall across the course of this tournament. He has not played his best tennis for long sections of matches, yet here he is, in the final, and giving himself an opportunity at another grand slam title. Medvedev has come from two sets down twice along the way (Zverev hit $1.08 in the semi final), but has stayed the course and dug in, just like Rafael Nadal did against the Russian in the final a couple of years ago.

Since the start of 2022, these two are 3-3 in the head to head. Medvedev won the first three, and Sinner won the last three. These last three match-ups have all come since October 2023, and Sinner’s starting prices in each match were approx $2.40, $2.04 and $1.70, with the last one coming at home for Sinner at the ATP Finals. None of the wins have been utterly dominant (the straight set win was 7-6 7-6), and I feel the best of 5 set format, and the grand slam experience of Medvedev, will be telling here.

So, should Sinner be sub $1.40? I agree he should be favourite, but I am not sure he should be this heavy of a favourite. Happy to take Medvedev +4.5 games and the moneyline here to round out the tournament.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Medvedev +4.5 games vs Sinner (1.5 units recorded at $2.10)

BACK: Medvedev to defeat Sinner (0.75 units recorded at $3.50)


Australian Open Tips

The Australian Open is the first of the so-called Grand Slam tournaments on the international tennis calendar and one of the nation’s most popular sports events. Played in Melbourne in late January, the tournament attracts massive crowds on-site. The Australian Open is the highest-attended Grand Slam tournament and at its pre-Covid peak in 2020, drew more than 810,000 fans. Cumulative audiences in the tens of millions watch the action in Australia and internationally via television and streaming services. Punters also love the tournament, with Betfair offering those looking for Australian Open tips a full suite of expert information and analysis on all players and matches and wagering categories aplenty covering all the action during the two-week tournament. 

The event has a rich history. Originally named the Australasian Championships, it was first played in 1905 on grass courts in St Kilda in Melbourne’s inner-south. The tournament moved around Australia for many years and was even played twice in New Zealand until 1972, when the Kooyong Lawn Tennis Club in inner-Melbourne became its home. The Open continued to be played on Kooyong’s grass courts until the late-1980s, when a larger and more modern facility was opened near the MCG in the city’s sporting precinct. The 1988 move to what is now known as Melbourne Park also came with a permanent January spot on the calendar and a shift from grass to hard courts.

As a Grand Slam tournament, the Australian Open features the full range of events: men’s and women’s singles, men’s and women’s doubles, mixed doubles, and wheelchair and junior events. Fields for the singles events feature 128 players, with seven victories required for a player to be crowned singles champion. With tennis generally in recess in November and December while players are on a break, form can be hard to gauge leading into the Australian Open, which is preceded by only handful of smaller warm-up events in Australia and abroad. The lack of exposed form at that time of the year and uncertainty over the preparation and fitness status of some players, often including some of the biggest names in the sport, means it is imperative that bettors closely follow the latest news provided by Betfair’s tennis experts, as well the data-driven analysis designed to help with tennis tips and betting strategies.

Since the move to Melbourne Park in 1988, international players have dominated both the men’s and women’s singles events. On the men’s side eight players have won multiple titles, led by Serbian Novak Djokovic (with a record nine), Swiss Roger Federer (six) and American Andre Agassi (four). It’s been a similar tale on the women’s side, with seven players capturing the tournament at least twice in that time including American Serena Williams (six times) and German Steffi Graf and Yugoslav-turned-American Monica Seles (four apiece). 

Until Ash Barty’s popular victory over American Danielle Collins in the 2022 women’s singles final, no Australian had won the Australian Open singles since 1978 when Chris O’Neal won the women’s crown. Barty shocked the tennis world soon after her victory when she announced her retirement from the game. Mark Edmondson (1976) remains the last local winner of the men’s title. Aussies Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios took the men’s double title in 2022. Barty and the Kokkinakis-Kyrgios team attracted a wave of interest from bettors during the 2022 tournament. Betfair’s tennis experts were all over the Aussies’ form and prospects as they made their way through their respective draws and the unique, data-rich information they compiled helped punters with their Aus Open tips.

For the 2025 tournament, Betfair is again framing multiple markets with bettors able to wager on all matches. Punters can consider backing specific players head-or-head, for example, or focus on set-related betting. They also can place considerations while matches are being played. Betfair, Australia’s largest betting exchange, also offers bettors the chance to back or lay an outcome.

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