EXPERT TIPS: NRL GRAND FINAL

Melbourne vs Brisbane

Betting Strategy

BACK: (Handicap) Melbourne -2.5 for 3.5 units (Rated at $1.65)

The Grand Final is upon us and for the first time since 2019 it will be a decider that does not feature Penrith after their historic run of five straight Grand Finals and four consecutive premierships. It is an appetising affair between two rivals who despise each other. Craig Bellamy has guided the Storm to 11 Grand Finals, a record for a coach, and the one that still stings him the most is his first when the Storm were stunned by the Broncos in 2006. Brisbane have remarkably not won a premiership since then with two of the most heartbreaking defeats imaginable in the 2015 and 2023 deciders. This is Melbourne’s to lose though. The superior defensive side typically comes out in the Grand Final and no team in the last two decades ranked as low as Brisbane are defensively (seventh) have gone on to win the premiership. The Storm have also dominated this matchup with 17 wins in the last 19 clashes. The Storm have covered 15 of those with double digit wins in 14. The Storm have covered nine of 15 against Top 4 teams and are 8-3 against the spread off scoring 22 or fewer. Both teams are at close to full strength but the reality is Melbourne are the superior team.

BACK: (Margin) Melbourne 13+ for 1 unit (Rated at $2.80)

The Storm are a very confident play and it would not surprise if they ran away with this one late. The Storm have beaten the Broncos by double digits in 14 of the last 19 clashes. It is rare such a poor defensive side as Brisbane make the decider and when there has been a difference of at least three ranking spots between them the better defensive side has won by 16 or more on three of four occasions. In the last 20 deciders, nine have been decided by 13-plus and it has been the favourite win every time.

BACK: (Total Points) Under 40.5 for 2.5 units (Rated at $1.70)

The under has been the norm when it comes to Grand Finals and needs to be the default position. The under has hit in 10 of the last 13 Grand Finals with nine of the last 11 not surpassing 40. Only three Grand Finals in the NRL era have reached 50 points. The under has also hit in the last five Melbourne have played a Top 4 team. The total here looks too high despite how these teams like to play.

CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL

Betting Strategy

BACK: (Clive Churchill Medal) Jahrome Hughes for 2.5 units (Rated at $5.00)

There is a very clear profile of who wins the Clive Churchill Medal. And who does not. In the 39 awardings of the honour, 36 winners have played Origin or Test football prior. There have been just four players from a losing team win. There have been just three two-time winners. No player has gone back-to-back. No winger or centre has ever won. No hooker has won since 2006, no prop since 2008 and no lock since 2014 – middles don’t win. Halves or fullbacks have won seven of the last eight. So with the Storm so heavily favoured we are looking to rep halves from the Storm. Hughes looks a better bet than Munster, helped by getting a narrative bump. He has a Dally M Medal and is the Storm’s most influential player.

LAY: (Clive Churchill Medal ) Harry Grant for 1 unit (Rated at $9.00)

Some fantastic hookers have not won a Clive Churchill Medal including Cameron Smith, Jake Friend, Api Koroisau and many more. Not since 2006 has a hooker won the Churchill yet Harry Grant is favoured. He has struggled in big games recently and is a huge lay.

LAY: (Clive Churchill Medal) Kotoni Staggs for 2 units (Rated at $101.00)

No three-quarter has ever won the Clive Churchill Medal. All eight should be triple figures. All can be laid under that. Staggs is the obvious shorty and comes from a team not expected to win. Lay lay lay!

BACK: (Clive Churchill Medal) Eliesa Katoa for 1 unit (Rated at $15.00)

Eliesa Katoa has had a sensational season and is the best backrower in the competition. Edges have a nice record. He has played Test footy. Best outsider.

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