GOLF MODEL TIPS: 3M OPEN 2025

Without anything in the way of weather to cause the chaos we were banking on it was a bit of a fizzer for the tips. Scottie really didn’t really give anyone a chance as a rare stumble in his tee to green game – and by stumble I mean he finished a lowly 8th – was more than made up for by a best in field putting performance. Top pick Bryson couldn’t overcome an awful opening round – but did well to finish T10 after giving himself a 7 shot handicap.

With the Majors wrapped for the year it’s all about the year end playoff schedule. The big names have all locked down their spots but the next fortnight provides an opportunity for the blokes on the bubble to push for a ticket to the Fedex dance. TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota will be the scene of Act 1, with the 3M Open offering 500 Fedex Cup points to whoever can tame the 7,430 yard layout.

The Arnold Palmer design offers huge potential for scoring but also throws up opportunities to cop a penalty with water a factor on basically every hole on the course. You need to stray well wide to get wet, with fairways a very welcoming 35 yards on average. While the short grass is a big target, in addition to the water there’s bunkering and deep rough waiting for players who mishit badly.

On approach, players will be targeting large and firm greens but again, the penalty for a really bad effort is severe as nasty run-off areas often result in daunting up-and-downs. Conditions are looking favourable so expect a lot of low scoring but at least one or two big and ugly scores from players who lose their heads.

Diving into the historic stats shows that this track doesn’t reward long hitting but does place a premium on accuracy, lining up nicely with the eye test. Around the green play also overindexes, reflecting the tricky nature of saves should the greens be missed in regulation. So we’re looking for short, accurate hitters with a strong wedge game.

Paul Peterson, the textbook definition of a journeyman, heads up this list – he’s one of the shortest hitters on Tour but rarely misses a fairway while having a slightly above average short game. He’ll take a third of a stroke overlay on top of his very low baseline and still isn’t much of a chance here.

The most likely names are mostly at the other end of the list, with big hitters like the red hot Chris Gotterup and Jake Knapp taking hits to their baseline in the order of a sixth of a stroke per round.
There’s a reasonable amount of course history held by the field with veteran Aussie Aaron Baddeley leading the list of overperformers having never missed a cut here. Fellow Aussie Cam Davis along with Tony Finau, Cam Champ and Johnny Vegas have outperformed, proving that not all big hitters are at a disadvantage here as they’ve been able to dial up their accuracy to fit the course.

Moderate volumes flowing through here and Sam Burns has been installed as favourite just ahead of Maverick McNealy. After threatening to break into the elite levels with three wins in 2022, Burns has had just one since and really needs a strong finish to remind the world he can play golf.

While Burns has seen some decent money flow his way, it’s Michael Thorbjornsen who has really captured bettor attention, with 10% of all money trading on his name seeing him backed in from high 40s down to his current $36. While he’s certainly been playing quality golf it’s a funny move as he wasn’t a value play even at the open.

There’s good value on offer this week so be sure to check out the full modelled odds as there’s some big overlays on more names than I’ve covered.