GOLF MODEL TIPS: ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP 2025

After a bit of a lull in the golfing calendar post the Ryder Cup the launch of the Rolex Series playoffs in Abu Dhabi brings us back to some top flight golf. Yas Links will host the cream of the Euro crop, with a newly confident Tommy Fleetwood looking to continue posting Ws after finally getting the monkey off his back over on the PGA.

He’ll need to get past McIlroy, who despite a middling season stats-wise, has lifted four trophies this year including the elusive Masters Cup. These desert tracks seem almost custom built for Rory’s strengths and he’s enjoyed a mountain of success across the Emirates. While he’s only played twice here – and without a win – the 7,425 yard track does tend to lean more links and less parkland bash fest which won’t suit Rory as much as punters might be expecting.

While fairways are generally wide, they slim down around landing areas and bunkers number in triple figures. Rough is a little trickier than usual and may actually present some form of penalty for missed off the tee efforts. Greens are large however sticking with the links-y feel they are heavily undulated and feature run-off areas to punish poor approaches. They’re also expected to be set quite fast so approach play looks like it could be a key differentiator here.

The track is exposed and while winds are currently looking to be relatively mild, any increase to this forecast could really ramp up the difficulty level – just take a look at the scoring in 2022.

This event has been played since the mid 2000s but Yas Links has only hosted since 2022, so even the most experienced blokes in the field have only had 12 rounds here. The standouts from a history perspective are Rafa Cabrera Bello – who has played out of his skin in his two appearances here and Nicolai Hojgaard, who bounced back from a missed cut in 2022 to post two very strong results in the last two years.

The in-form Fleetwood will be looking to turn around some poor history here – despite a T6 in 2024, his average scoring across the 12 rounds he’s played has been over half a stroke below expectation. I wouldn’t read an awful lot into this as late-2025 Fleetwood is a new man and he’s a clear second only to the great Scheff in world golf right now.

This event has been played since the mid 2000s but Yas Links has only hosted since 2022, so even the most experienced blokes in the field have only had 12 rounds here. The standouts from a history perspective are Rafa Cabrera Bello – who has played out of his skin in his two appearances here and Nicolai Hojgaard, who bounced back from a missed cut in 2022 to post two very strong results in the last two years.

The in-form Fleetwood will be looking to turn around some poor history here – despite a T6 in 2024, his average scoring across the 12 rounds he’s played has been over half a stroke below expectation. I wouldn’t read an awful lot into this as late-2025 Fleetwood is a new man and he’s a clear second only to the great Scheff in world golf right now.

Great volume flowing on this event, even more impressive given the reasonable field lining up over on the PGA. The market has put the sandman McIlroy in as favourite, clearly placing far too much faith in his desert record rather than recent field-adjusted form. I alluded to his poor stats earlier but his approach play in particular has reached its lowest points in 13 years – he’s barely gaining strokes on the field with iron in hand. That said, the rest of his game is still elite and he’s a clear second favourite in the model’s eyes.

Despite Rory’s under-pricing, there’s no value in Tommy and I’ll be looking further down the board to a veteran who is hitting a late career peak and an accurate hitting Pom who’d love to cap off a solid season with a victory.