GOLF MODEL TIPS: FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2026

Si Woo nearly did the dirty on us last week, looking primed to deliver on the one week we weren’t on board. Thankfully Scottie put on a final round clinic as he once again showed how desperately the Tour needs Jon Rahm and friends back to deliver some semblance of competition. 

We’ve got another early-season multi-course event this week and although it hasn’t been given Signature status, it’s attracted the best of the second tier crop as Aberg, Hideki, Home, Finau and Rose all suit up for the first time in 2026. The biggest name however is Brooks Koepka who, having accepted the PGA’s olive branch, has turned his back on LIV to return to golf in long pants.

The model never had a high opinion of Brooks – as he didn’t really seem to show up for anything other than Majors – and after two years of middling performances on a lesser Tour he’s seriously fallen away. That said, with all eyes on him this week you wouldn’t put it past him to pull out a Major Brooks performance.

The Torrey Pines North and South tracks will be utilised this week and with three rounds on the South course I’ll spend most of my time there. It’s a brute of a track, at 7,765 yards it will be the most walking players are likely to do all season. The former US Open track is actually relatively welcoming off the tee, with wide fairways allowing players some room to go for distance. The rough is kept thick so while there’s room to work with, there’s penalty awaiting really poor efforts.

Greens are also quite large but feature heavy contouring and are surrounded by deep bunkering. Speeds are set at Tour averages however there’s a clear trend towards faster speeds later in the day, which is a worthwhile angle to consider in any AM/PM split planning. Winds often play a role here too, further feeding into potential advantages for early wave players on the South track. This will be a much tougher test than last week and expect a winning score in the low teens

There’s some chunky histories to look at this week and some good sized adjustments as a result. Brandt Snedeker is the absolute standout, having one of the best single course outperformance records I can recall seeing. Across a whopping 52 rounds here he’s exceeded expectation by almost one and a half strokes per round and combined with his experience he’ll receive a big overlay to his baseline.

With a history almost as long but around half the level of outperformance, Kevin Streelman is the other name worth calling out and he takes a quarter stroke overlay in here.

Looking at the fit stats, they line up very well with the eye test – with a big premium on length and less importance on accuracy. With the tricky green complexes pushing off poorly aimed approaches, around the green play is also more important here than an average track.

Lining these up against stat strengths for individual players we find the big hitters like Gordon Sargent and Aldrich Pottgieter benefiting the most. Not far back are the strong chances Chris Gotterup, Penge and Nic Hojgaard. Short hitting Snedeker gives back a lot of his course specific overlay along with other short knockers Putnam, Rai and Matt Kuchar.

Despite a field of no-names, the Euro is still capturing a decent amount of bettor interest which has seen flows here come in slightly below what would be expected. Xander is the favourite here but it’s Cantlay who has attracted the most money, with early backers eating up volume in the mid 30s as he fell rapidly to his current $26. There’s actually a great spread of volume here and despite the lower overall flows it should be straightforward to get matched on most of the top half of the board.