GOLF MODEL TIPS: EUROPEAN MASTERS 2025

Tommy Fleetwood put not just his near miss at the St Jude, but years of agonising close losses behind him as he lifted his first significant piece of silverware. While he probably didn’t deserve it based on his play over the week – he ranked barely mid-field tee to green – and was assisted by a lack of any real pressure from fellow stretch struggler Patrick Cantlay, he’s done enough over this year to not begrudge him lifting the season title. The win catapults him up the model rankings and he now leads the list of golfers not named Scottie Scheffler.

With the PGA wrapped for the season I’ll give the Euro some love this week, as a decent field lines up at arguably the world’s most picturesque golf course over in the Swiss Alps. Crans-sur-Sierre welcomes home a number of European-based golfers who spent the year plying their trade state-side. There’s more than pride on the line this week as it marks the final chance to catch Luke Donald’s attention before he makes his Ryder Cup team selections. 

This event is the oldest on the Euro played continuously at the same course so we’ve had decades to learn its intricacies while marveling at post-card like backdrops. It plays just over 6,800 yards meaning the driver will stay in the bag most of the week. While length won’t challenge players, elevation changes and doglegs demand off the tee accuracy. Rough is very penal in patches and there’s been continued work on fairways bunkering to catch poor first shots.

From there players will be attacking medium sized greens that are heavily undulated, often featuring multiple tiers and tricky slopes. The course is mostly exposed to potentially gusty mountain winds, so keep an eye on the forecast closer to tee off to spot any wave angles as they often pick up in the afternoon.

The Euro are still living in the dark ages on statistics and there’s no shots gained data available for this event to apply the course fit approach. In lieu of any statistics it’s safe to say big hitters have absolutely no advantage here, accuracy is the name of the game.

We do have a rich history of player specific performance here and there will be some hefty overlays applied at a track that ranks right at the top of the predictiveness scale (for European layouts anyway).

Leading the way is Gavin Green – who promised a heap early in his career before fading to obscurity in 2021, making a comeback across 2022/2023 before once again forgetting how to play. He’s never missed a cut here, fairly significant for a guy who has missed eleven of them this year.

Moving onto names likely to be in the mix this week, two-time winner Matt Fitzpatrick has played over a stroke per round better than his baseline and combined with his 30 rounds of experience he receives a third of a stroke bump to his skill rating.

Without a PGA event this week, reasonable volumes are flowing. Punters have loaded up on Fitzpatrick, who has been backed in steadily from 12s to below 10 and still has further to run according to the model. Backers have been similarly keen on Noren and Rai and the model is also in agreement with these moves. No such love for defending champ Matt Wallace, who has drifted from mid 20s out to his current $32.