GOLF MODEL TIPS: PGA BMW CHAMPIONSHIP 2025

Total wash on the tips with none of them ever looking likely. After shooting out to an early lead Tommy Fleetwood did typical Fleetwood things – adding just two shots to his halfway score on his way to missing the playoff with Spaun and Rose by one stroke. J.J. would’ve been a deserving winner as he served up an impeccable tee to green performance across the week and would’ve fancied his chances after a lovely wedge to 7 feet of the fourth playoff hole. But Rose drained his longer putt and Spaun went well wide on what appeared to be a bad read of a putt that went dead straight. Still, it continues a stellar season for Spaun who has every chance to start the season ender next week within a couple of shots of Scheffler.

With the bottom 20 sent packing to try again next year we move to the next round of the playoffs. Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland will be the host, being awarded duties again after doing the honours in 2021. We haven’t seen a huge amount of the layout but it will be a stark contrast from last week’s short knocker’s paradise. The 7,600 yard track is the third-longest on Tour and absolutely favours distance over accuracy.

That said, the mail is that fairways have been tightened up from the prior edition, with landing areas further towards the hole being shaved the most. Rough too, is expected to be up after Cantlay and Dechambeau pushed 30-under the last time around here. The distribution of length means players will be leaving the 9-iron in the bag for most of the week and instead will be hitting about double the number of 250+ yard approaches they would on a regular week.

Scottie Scheffler is the king of approach game but it’s Xander who leads the way in distances past 200. He’s actually in a fair bit of danger of missing the Tour Championship next week so he’ll appreciate a track that plays to his strengths. Those fairway woods will be targeting firm greens on the smaller side, with a number of them featuring multi-tiered setups. An increased difficulty in hole location has also been called out in another bid to curb scoring ease here.

We’ve only seen the four rounds played here but the trends were pretty clear – length is an advantage and accuracy is not, however there isn’t a huge benefit for the wayward hitters. With the course changes made I’d expect the distance advantage to be increased while accuracy will come back to average.

This gives Rory McIlroy the biggest advantage in the field. I should note there are no course fit overlays based on approach distance distribution – this is something I’m looking to build in a future model iteration – so Xander’s apparent course fit advantage isn’t captured in the model output.

Not too many short hitters have made it this far but Brian Campbell is the standout short knocker and looks to be no chance of making it through to next week.

History here isn’t really relevant given the small sample, but Cantlay won here back in 2021 while Sungjae came in third with McIlroy fourth and they will take in some very slender bumps as a result.

Really lopsided flows this week, especially considering the compressed field. There’s been less than half a million traded but a third of that has gone to short-priced Scheffler. Liquidity further down to board is surprisingly weak however I’d expect that to improve overnight as flows seem to be getting more and more back-ended towards the start of the event.

Rory is struggling to find much love despite his week off and strong showing here last time around, drifting from 9 to 10 however still a clear second favourite. Not a huge amount of movement elsewhere on the board with punters perhaps a little cautious due to the relatively unknown track.