GOLF MODEL TIPS: SONY OPEN 2026

With the cancellation of the originally scheduled 2026 opener in Kapalua, this week’s Sony Open at Waialae – usually the follow up – moves up to kick off proceedings this year. While there’s a couple of big names lining up over in the desert, we’ve got an unusually strong field in Maui and the betting flows have been consistent.

The 120-man field includes 20 of the top 50 players and with none of the elite names playing this week it’s a huge chance for players coming off disappointing years to get going with a bang. The Waialae Country Club layout is one of the shortest players will tackle all year and the card reads just 7,044 yards this year. The event has favoured accurate hitters and shares much in common with other short tracks like Sea Island and Sedgefield.

Off the tee, players face narrower than average fairways while strategically placed doglegs limit ability to gain strokes through long balls. Positioning is critical here as is distance control on approach. Greens are well bunkered and surrounded by sticky Bermuda making around the green play tricky.

If winds stay down, this could become a birdie-fest but is a decent test if they pick up. The forecast is currently looking pretty benign so I’d expect good scoring conditions.

Chris Kirk, Keith Mitchell and Russell Henley are the standouts from a course history perspective with all three recording sizeable and consistent outperformances here across large sample sizes. The course rates right up the top of the predictiveness ladder (for courses not called Augusta) so this historic outperformance is a great predictor of their play this week.

At the other end of the spectrum it’s probably not the week to be having a crack at Adam Scott, who hasn’t enjoyed his island time however does benefit from extensive experience here.

Good flows even if the Euro event is pinching some of them and Henley’s track record here has been well valued by punters – he comes in as a clear favourite ahead of Morikawa and JJ Spaun. Collin’s 2025 was incredibly disappointing so no doubt he’ll be fired up here to build some momentum. Punters are keen on a comeback and he’s been backed in strongly. Corey Conners has also received strong support while Hideki, Macintyre and Si Woo have been big drifters. Some great value across the top of the board so we’ll be spreading some units early in the year.