CHASING CHARLIE
Will an inspirational Blue win a second Brownlow? Will a star young Magpie get vindication for last year? Or will a champion Lion join the rarest of air?
It is going to be a fascinating watch on Brownlow night with key chances emerging from everywhere in recent weeks.
Last year’s favourite Nick Daicos and last year’s winner Lachie Neale each collected 40 disposals in the final round in big wins for their clubs. Both are predicted to land three votes on the Betfair model.
Daicos is again a leading contender in the market, as a marginal second favourite behind Patrick Cripps. Cripps is predicted to go vote-less against the Saints, but he would have to be some chance? 30 disposals including a huge second half that nearly dragged his team across the line.
The model has Cripps finishing one vote behind Daicos, so it is going to be a fascinating final round watch.
The inelligible Isaac Heeney will likely be right up there, but watch for his teammate Errol Gulden to come with a charge. Gulden polled the most votes of any player in the competition after the half point of last season, so he can finish strong.
Last year’s Brownlow market was all about Lachie Neale being over the odds, with a victory coming at nearly $20 despite the Betfair Prediction’s Model having him only one vote off the lead.
It could be happening again, with the two-time winner peaking at $380 at one stage this season. He is now a third favourite at $9 and is predicted to have 26 votes on the model (ranked third). He did touch $5.50 about a month ago.
The previously mentioned Patrick Cripps traded as high as $44 during the season. He is now the outright favourite at $2.48.
Isaac Heeney spent seven weeks as favourite before being ruled ineligible by the AFL Tribunal after a suspension.
Nick Daicos spent most of last year as favourite, but a slow start this season saw him hit $20 before lighting up in a big way. He is now $2.66 on the Betfair Exchange, in from $6 a fortnight ago. The model has him winning.
Marcus Bontempelli is another leading contender who hit a high price. As the Dogs form struggled early he traded as high as $30 before shortening into $5.50 as the form of his team improved significantly. He is now back out to $18…which is Lachie Neale 2023 territory.
Final round specs…
N Daicos 40 disposals, 25 kicks, 15 handballs, 2 goals 3 Votes?
L Neale 40 disposals, 24 kicks, 16 handballs, 1 goal 3 Votes?
P Cripps 30 disposals, 12 kicks, 18 handballs, 9 tackles, 8 clearances 3 Votes?
M Bontempelli 22 disposals, 12 kicks, 10 handballs, 1 goal X Votes?
Other players to have traded under $10
Caleb Serong (Frem) Min $8.60, Max $48, Current $38
Zac Merrett (Ess) Min $6, Max $200, Current $42
Tom Green (GWS) Min $7.20, Max $130, Current $60
Matt Rowell (GC) Min $8, Max $990, Current $470