EXPERT TIPS: NFL 2026/2027

The NFL is back! And in an historic first, the season begins in Australia with the San Francisco 49ers and LA Rams taking to the MCG this Friday morning.

After a successful campaign through the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Stats Insider will be returning with a new model for the 2026/2027 NFL season, providing a range of tips across all matches.

Stats Insider’s Damien Souness joined Tom Haylock on a special edition of Lay Back with Betfair to discuss the season ahead.

“We had a great world cup, and we’ve actually built a new NFL model this year which is exciting,” Souness said.

“We have more than 100 data points that feed into it, powering all of our predictions, looking at internal power rankings, quarterback strength, team efficiency, pace, form and lots more. We are excited to see how that goes.”

“It’s been six months of development by the team behind the scenes, so really looking forward to this season starting.”

Souness explained how the model is set up at the beginning of a season, ahead of any results that can move the needle.

“It’s against internal benchmarking and previous seasons where the model’s not aware of the results. So we’re pretty confident with where it is to launch it. And then obviously as the season gets started, we continue to refine, continue to fine tune and ultimately get stronger.”

This Friday marks the first ever regular season game of NFL to be held in Australia. A crowd of 100,000 people is expected at the MCG.

The match pits two rivals, both from the NFC West in a game that could have significant meaning in the washup.

“This is the real deal. Week one, everyone will be dialed in.” Souness added.

The 49ers are currently $2.80 outsiders on the Betfair Exchange, with the Rams favourite at $1.53. The two sides split their meetings last year, and both finished the season with 12-5 records.

So both ultimately finished their seasons 12-5. The Rams this year are the Super Bowl favourites, so one to look out for. We’ll talk a little bit more about that soon.

“We rate the 49ers at $2.78, so a 1.4% edge on them at the moment.” Souness said.

Another slight edge for Stats Insider can be found on total points. The line currently sitting at 48.5.

“Yeah, we’re slightly leaning towards the under, so that’s 52 percent. The over is 48 percent. You can get $1.93 the under on Betfair at the moment and $2.00 too.”

Souness also discussed some edges in the “Anytime scorer” market.

“We’ve got the two running backs. So from the 49ers, it’s Christian McCaffrey. From the Rams, it’s Kyron Williams.

“McCaffrey, 55.9% chance of scoring a touchdown. Kyron Williams, 50.7. So for McCaffrey, that’s $1.79. For Williams, that’s $1.97. And then the rest of the players are all above even money. So you’ve got Puka Nuku’a, Devante Adams, Mike Evans.

“One we like as well, Debo Samuel, a little bit further off. So potentially some opportunities there, depending on what the prices are. But we’re looking at Mike Evans and Debo Samuel in particular, both wide receivers for the 49ers.

“Evans at 35.5% chance of scoring a touchdown. Samuel at 27%. So fair odds of $2.82 for Evans, $3.70 for Samuel.”

For the rest of the opening round, Stats Insider have identified some value across the board.

“We’ve got the first one is the Dolphins versus the Raiders. We’re going to go with the Dolphins plus three and a half. Probability there, 59.8. Fair odds, $1.67. Currently $1.85 on Betfair.

“So that’s a 5.7% edge. Anything above two and a half is good. So 5.7 is great.

“We’re also looking at the Bills against the Texans. So this is one of the better games of the week one slate. Two AFC contenders meeting in Houston.

“Buffalo entering as a narrow favorite. Very close in the betting, but we like the Bills to win.

“So we’ve got them at 58.1% chance of winning there. $1.72 fair odds, $1.96 available at the moment. So that’s a 7.1% edge.

“All the bets will be up on the Betfair app. So follow Stats Insider on there, turn on your notifications so you don’t miss a tip.”

In terms of futures, the Rams are clear Superbowl favourites at $6.20, with Betfair already with close to $800,000 traded on the Superbowl futures market.

“Yeah, I mean, they appear to be the team to beat, but we’re not as keen on them as the market is in a pretty notable way. So we’ve got the Rams at a 7% chance of winning the Super Bowl. So our fair odds are actually $14.29. Compare that to the $6.20 that’s available at the moment.

“It’s quite a significant negative edge and gets us into lay territory. So that’s $14.29 you’re at. Yeah, so the Super Bowl race is is wide open as far as we’re concerned.

“You’ve obviously got the Bills, the Seahawks, the defending champions, the Ravens and the Chiefs. We’ve got them all above 5%. But as I said, we’re just not as keen on the Rams as perhaps the rest of the market is.