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FEATURE PREVIEWS: WINX STAKES

WINX STAKES

Track: Randwick | Distance: 1400m | Rail Position: True | Current Condition: Heavy 8 | Predicted Conditions: Soft 5 | Prizemoney: $1,000,000

Minimal rain forecast for the rest of the week, so the track should play well as Randwick dries well. Wider gates could be an advantage by this race.

A capacity field here and the first G1 of the new racing season in NSW. A true G1 field. 14 of these are G1 winners. The race has only been a G1 since 2018, but the honour roll of this race is illustrious with Winx having won it 3 years in a row, plus the likes of Defier, Lonhro, Sunline, Filante, Super Impose, Kingston Town and Verry Elleegant.

Historical Profiling (last 9 years)

  • All the past 8 winners on dry tracks have been 1st up off a 126-to-161-day spell.
  • 3 of the past 8 years Winx has run and won the race, which doesn’t tell you much from a historical profiling perspective given she also scared off many other potential contenders.
  • Interestingly of the other 6 years, 2 have been won by ‘sprinters’ in the form of Tiger Tees (on a heavy track too) who was more of an 1100m-1200m horse, and Samadoubt in 2019 who certainly trialled very well over 1000m before the race. The other winners however were Royal Descent, Verry Elleegant, Mo’unga & Anamoe who are all class G1 horses.
  • Apart from Winx, in the other 6 years, 2 of the winners were leaders, with Royal Descent also on pace, 3rd on the turn. However, Verry Elleegant, Mo’unga & Anamoe came from the back although they had progressed into either 5th or 6th respectively by the turn.
  • Mares have won 5 of the past 9 editions and do have a superlative performance overall given they usually only comprise of a small proportion of the runners.
  • The last 3yo to win was Trusting in 2009, and before that Lonhro in 2001.

Speed Map

Should be a decent tempo here with the big field.

Lindermann likely to push forward to lead from the wide gate, with Zaaki and Communist taking handy positions.

King Colorado, Major Beel, Mounga and Arapaho will push forward of midfield.

Osipenko, Think It Over, Navajo Peak, Going Global, Princess Grace & Golden Mile won’t want to get too far back.

Francesco Guardi, Hinged, Duais, Attrition, Montefilia & Fangirl likely out the back.

WARWICK (WINX) STAKES | FINAL FIELD – KEY CHANCES

2. Zaaki – 2 wins and 2 seconds from last 4 first up runs at G1/G2 level. Is a 9yo now and coming off a couple of below par runs in QLD. Can win but is a surprising favourite.

3. Mo’unga – Multiple G1 winning sprinter miler. Won this race two years ago then unlucky in this race last year after coming off an interrupted prep in the Autumn. Had a very good prep last Autumn and trialled more forward ahead of this prep than he has for 3 years. Can win here.

8. Osipenko – Ran 3rd beaten 0.6L at 4th career start in the G1 Caulfield Guineas. Won the G2 Hobartville last prep then had a setback but solid when 7th beaten 1.5L in the George Ryder and only beaten 2L in the G1 Doncaster. Capable of winning this.

9. Lindermann – Sat outside of Princess Grace and strode past her in Canterbury 900m Aug 1 trial. Ran 2nd in the Randwick Guineas and then won the Rosehill Guineas last prep. Looks to have come back this prep bigger and stronger and rates on top here.

12. Montefilia – First run for C Waller and has run very well in past two first up runs only beaten 2.5L at G1 level both times running the 3rd quickest last 800m in the Chipping Norton first up last prep. Win wouldn’t surprise.

13. Fangirl – Very high-quality mare who won the G1 Vinery as a 3yo, and has run 4 G1 seconds since behind Anamoe and I Wish I Win. Races well fresh so certainly a winning chance here but prefers it bone dry.

17. King Colorado – I’m biased given I am a part owner in this colt, but he won the G1 JJ Atkins as a 2yo at just his 3rd career start despite jumping last out of the gates. The only 3yo in the race and has a featherweight of 50.5kg and a soft draw. Has to be in this mix.

DEAN EVANS’ TOP 5 SELECTIONS

9 – Lindermann
17 – King Colorado
3 – Mo’unga
8 – Osipenko
12 – Montefilia

SUMMARY

Lindermann sat outside of G3 winning sprinter Princess Grace and strode past her in Canterbury 900m Aug 1 trial. Looks set for this and the one to beat.

King Colorado has the world at his feet. Won a G1 at his 3rd start and gets a featherweight here as a 3yo.

Mo’unga, Osipenko & Montefilia are all capable of sprinting well enough first up to win this.

Fangirl & Zaaki can win but have to bet around them at the prices.

WARWICK (WINX) STAKES | BETTING STRATEGY

BACK (WIN) #9 Lindermann 1.5 units
BACK (WIN): #17 King Colorado 1.0 unit
BACK (WIN): #3 Mo’unga 0.5 units
BACK (WIN): #8 Osipenko 0.5 units
BACK (WIN): #12 Montefilia 0.5 units

DEAN EVANS’ RESULTS

Units Outlayed: 418.2
Units Returned: 461.3
Profit On Turnover: 10.3%

G1 Big Priced Winners (Betfair SP Price)

2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.63
2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar $32.60
2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment $28.26
2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier $23
2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run $19.50
2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar $18.95
2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone $15.50
2022 Australasian Oaks: Glint Of Hope $13.55
2023 TJ Smith Stakes: I Wish I Win $12.80
2023 Lightning Stakes: Coolangatta $12.69
2020 Metropolitan Handicap: Mirage Dancer $11.18
2022 Surround Stakes: Hinged $11.00
2020 Manikato Stakes: Hey Doc $10.32
2023 Blue Diamond Stakes: Little Brose $10.24

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