WINX STAKES
Track: Randwick | Distance: 1400m | Rail Position: +3m | Current Condition: Soft 6 | Predicted Conditions: Soft 5 | Prizemoney: $1,000,000
Minimal rain forecast for the rest of the week, so the track should play well with Randwick’s drainage. Wider gates could be an advantage by the time this race runs.
A strong field here and the first G1 of the new racing season in NSW. 8 G1 winners and 3 G1 placegetters from the field of 12. The race has only been a G1 since 2018, but the honour roll of this race is illustrious with Winx having won it 3 years in a row, plus the likes of Fangirl, Anamoe, Verry Elleegant and Royal Descent.
Historical Profiling (last 10 years)
- All the past 9 winners have been 1st up off a 126-to-161-day spell. 8 of them off either 126, 133 or 140 day spells.
- 3 of the past 10 years Winx has run and won the race, which doesn’t tell you much from a historical profiling perspective given she also scared off many other potential contenders.
- Interestingly of the other 7 years, 2 have been won by ‘sprinters’ in the form of Tiger Tees (on a heavy track too) who was more of an 1100m-1200m horse, and Samadoubt in 2019 who certainly trialled very well over 1000m before the race. The other winners however were Royal Descent, Verry Elleegant, Fangirl, Mo’unga & Anamoe who are all class G1 horses.
- Apart from Winx, in the other 7 years, 2 of the winners were leaders, with Royal Descent also on pace, 3rd on the turn. However, Verry Elleegant, Fangirl, Mo’unga & Anamoe came from the back.
- Mares have won 6 of the past 10 editions and do have a superlative performance overall given they usually only comprise of a small proportion of the runners.
- The last 3yo to win was Trusting in 2009, and before that Lonhro in 2001.
Speed Map
Looks an average tempo here Tropical Squall getting a comfortable lead ahead of Just Fine, Zougotcha and Semana.
Detonator Jack & Zeyrek can take handy positions forward of midfield.
Atishu, Zardozi and Riff Rocket (wide?) settle back of midfield.
Buckaroo, Fangirl & Via Sistina likely out the back.
WARWICK (WINX) STAKES | FINAL FIELD – KEY CHANCES
3. Zeyrek – Has a much better first up record than it looks. Won a BM100 first up at Rosehill, then 4th first up next prep in a G2 over 1400m, then no luck last first up run when held up throughout the straight. Best bolter.
5. Riff Rocket – 3 time staying G1 winner as a 3yo. Is unbeaten from 3 fresh up runs and showed an outstanding turn of foot first up last prep over 1400m at Flemington G2 level +5.3 last 600m 2nd quickest of 105 runners on the day. Looks ready to go based on his trials. Strong chance.
6. Fangirl – Top class mare who won the G1 Vinery as a 3yo, and won this race first up last prep. Bolted in first up this track/distance again last prep. Strong chance.
7. Via Sistina – High class mare who coasted to win the Ranvet Stakes in first Aus run, then 2nd behind Pride Of Jenni in the Queen Elizabeth. Certainly has the talent to win this, but get the impression from the trials she may need this run more than others.
8. Atishu – Isn’t usually at her best first up, but has the ability to figure here. Place chance.
9. Zougotcha – Another who has some handy first up form. Maps nicely. Can figure.
10. Semana – Can race handy, has residual QLD fitness and has run multiple G1 placings. Can place.
11. Tropical Squall – Likely to get a soft lead here and won the G1 Surround Stakes first up last prep over this track & distance. In the mix.
12. Zardozi – Has been awful at past two first up runs, both at this track. Doesn’t appear to race best here or fresh. Waiting for later in the prep for her.
DEAN EVANS’ TOP 5 SELECTIONS
5 – Riff Rocket
11 – Tropical Squall
9 – Zougotcha
3 – Zeyrek
6 – Fangirl
SUMMARY
Expect the winner to come from my top 5 selections.
Riff Rocket looks the one to beat and very keen on him.
Tropical Squall and Zougotcha are genuine winning chances.
Zeyrek a bolter who can surprise at odds.
Fangirl a genuine winning chance but have to bet around her at the price and after suffering an injury last prep.
WARWICK (WINX) STAKES | BETTING STRATEGY
BACK (WIN) #5 – Riff Rocket for 2 units
BACK (WIN) #11 – Tropical Squall for 1 unit
BACK (WIN) #9 – Zougotcha for 0.5 units
BACK (EACH WAY) #3 – Zeyrek for 0.5 units each-way
DEAN EVANS’ RESULTS
Units Outlayed: 418.2
Units Returned: 461.3
Profit On Turnover: 10.3%
G1 Big Priced Winners (Betfair SP Price)
2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.63
2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar $32.60
2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment $28.26
2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier $23
2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run $19.50
2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar $18.95
2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone $15.50
2022 Australasian Oaks: Glint Of Hope $13.55
2023 TJ Smith Stakes: I Wish I Win $12.80
2023 Lightning Stakes: Coolangatta $12.69
2020 Metropolitan Handicap: Mirage Dancer $11.18
2022 Surround Stakes: Hinged $11.00
2020 Manikato Stakes: Hey Doc $10.32
2023 Blue Diamond Stakes: Little Brose $10.24