FEATURE PREVIEWS: VICTORIA DERBY
2024 VICTORIA DERBY OVERVIEW
Track: Flemington | Distance: 2500m | Type: G1 3YO SW | Rail Position: True | Track Condition: Good 4 | Predicted Track Condition: Good 4 | Prizemoney: $2,000,000
3yo staying classic won by the likes of Riff Rocket, Hitotsu, Warning, Ace High, Prized Icon, Tarzino, Preferment and Sangster.
2024 VICTORIA DERBY HISTORY (LAST 13 YEARS)
3rd up (1/4), 4th up (1/43), 5th up (5/75), 6th up (5/54), 7th up (1/18), 8th up+ (0/11)
7-day break (5/56), 10-day break (1/53), 14-day break (5/66), 21-day break (1/13), 28-day break (1/5)
Gear Change (7/74)
Career Starts 2-4 (0/45), 5-6 (8/79), 7-10 (2/73), 11-14 (3/8)
Career Wins 0-1 (5/122), 2-3 (8/83)
Barriers 1-7 (10/91), Barriers 8-10 (2/39), 11+ (1/75)
Colt (8/121), Gelding (5/84)
C Waller (3/7)
Last Start NSW (3/21)
Tab Number 1-7 (11/89), 8+ (2/116)
Average prizemoney per start $10k+ (10 winners)
Total Prizemoney $60k+ (11/112), Under $60k (1/77)
Only 2 have won in their first race prep. Trained by Maher & Waller
2024 VICTORIA DERBY SPEED MAP
Above average speed here expected with the likes of West Indies, Keeneland, Hot Too Go, Autumnheat, Oxford Blue and El Castello, plus emergencies War Ribbon and Cecchetti. Much of the speed is drawn wide so will need to get across.
Tenbury Wells, China Sea, Red Aces & Goldrush Guru can race forward of midfield.
King Of Thunder, Saint Emilion, Peru, Scary & Kingofwallstreet worse than midfield.
Politely Dun out the back.
2024 VICTORIA DERBY KEY RUNNERS
1. El Castello – Has been impressive every run this campaign, winning all 4 starts this prep including the G1 Spring Champion Stakes last start. Rates well but wide gate makes it tough.
2. Red Aces – Won the G2 Vase last start when had a lovely run behind the speed. Had every chance in a slow tempo race. Does map well here.
3. Keeneland – Impressed winning the Super Impose then a close 3rd beaten a long neck in a slowly run Norman Robinson. Bred to run the trip a Bowman aboard.
4. Goldrush Guru – Won the Hill Smith Stakes by 2.1L in good time last start.
5. Saint Emilion – Won the Geelong Classic last start by 1.8L in slow time. In first prep but hard to ever deny a chance to a Maher runner in a staying race.
6. Kingofwallstreet – In first prep having just 4th start but won the G3 Norman Robinson by a nose last start.
7. Politely Dun – Having his 8th run of the prep. Has plenty of miles in the legs and has been consistent every start, including a solid 4th after settling back in a slowly run affair in the Vase last start.
8. King Of Thunder – In first prep but hit the line hardest for 3rd beaten a neck in the Vase last start. J Mac aboard.
9. Tenbury Wells – Won 2 in a row at Kembla in good time, then a solid 5th in the G3 Gloaming. Not out of it.
11. China Sea – Ran 2nd beaten a nose in the G3 Norman Robinson and Zahra hops aboard here.
17. War Ribbon – Has raced consistently well in provincial grade this prep, and won C1 at Newcastle last start by 4L over 2260m although did overrace. Should stay the trip and maps nicely.
TOP 4 SELECTIONS
3.Keeneland
17.War Ribbon
7.Politely Dun
1.El Castello
BETTING STRATEGIES
Open VRC Derby this year.
Keeneland rates on top and looks to get a good run on speed.
War Ribbon maps nicely and should run the trip out strongly as long as he settles in the run.
Politely Dun profiles solidly also.
El Castello, Goldrush Guru and King Of Thunder are all key dangers.
Betting Strategy
BACK: 3.Keeneland (WIN) for 1.5 units
BACK: 17. War Ribbon (WIN) for 1.5 units
BACK: 7. Politely Dun (WIN) for 0.5 units
DEAN EVANS’ RESULTS (BETFAIR SP)
BIG WINNERS
2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.63
2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar $32.60
2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment $28.26
2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier $23
2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run $19.50
2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar $18.95
2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone $15.50
2022 Australasian Oaks: Glint Of Hope $13.55
2023 TJ Smith Stakes: I Wish I Win $12.80
2023 Lightning Stakes: Coolangatta $12.69
2020 Metropolitan Handicap: Mirage Dancer $11.18
2022 Surround Stakes: Hinged $11.00
2020 Manikato Stakes: Hey Doc $10.32
2023 Blue Diamond Stakes: Little Brose $10.24
Victoria Derby Tips – Expert Analysis for Derby Day at Flemington
Victoria Derby Day at Flemington is one of the most anticipated events on the Australian racing calendar, offering punters a full card of Group racing and high-stakes excitement. But the headline act is undoubtedly the Group 1 VRC Derby—a gruelling 2500m staying test for three-year-olds that separates the contenders from the pretenders.
If you’re looking for winning angles on this iconic race, you’ve come to the right place. Our expert Victoria Derby tips cut through the noise to deliver high-value selections, form analysis, and strategic betting tips tailored for Derby Day success.
The Victoria Derby isn’t just a race—it’s a test of class, stamina, and timing. Many of the contenders will be stepping up to 2500m for the first time, making form analysis both critical and complex. Our team of professional analysts dissects every runner’s preparation, breeding, jockey bookings, and track suitability to deliver Victoria Derby tips you can bet on with confidence.
We go beyond the obvious favourites, aiming to find:
- Hidden value in the market
- Key runners peaking at the right time
- Stable whispers and late mail that matter
- Race tempo and tactical maps for smart punting
While the VRC Derby is the main event, Derby Day tips span the entire racecard, which is stacked with Group-level quality from start to finish. It’s widely regarded as the best day of pure racing on the calendar, and we cover it all.
We also provide insights into track conditions at Flemington, weather updates, and barrier trends, which can often impact race outcomes in subtle but important ways. The VRC Derby demands stamina and mental toughness from these young colts. Horses with strong pedigrees, proven form over 2000m+, and the ability to settle in the run tend to shine.
When crafting our Victoria Derby tips, we assess:
- Lead-up runs in races like the Moonee Valley Vase or Norman Robinson Stakes
- Sectional times and finishing bursts
- Jockeys with Derby experience and Flemington success
- Trainer patterns—some target this race every year with great effect
While favourites can and do win, the Derby often sees upsets and bold front-running efforts, so understanding pace and positioning is crucial to solid betting tips.
Derby Day is a punter’s paradise, and we’re here to guide you every step of the way. With expert form analysis, market insights, and a proven track record, our betting tips will help you bet smarter and more confidently.
Whether you’re backing a favourite in the VRC Derby or chasing value across the card, trust our Derby Day tips to deliver winning opportunities from the first race to the last. Once Derby Day is over, head over to our Melbourne Cup expert tips page for an extensive preview of the big race.
