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FEATURE PREVIEWS: TURNBULL STAKES

TURNBULL STAKES

Rail: 9m

Current Track Conditions: Soft 6

Predicted Track Conditions: Good 4 / Soft 5

Minimal rain forecast from Thursday to Saturday, so the Flemington track should play perfectly as it usually does.

Always a great race for horses on the Cups & Cox Plate paths. Has been won in recent years by some star G1 horses including Winx, Verry Elleegant, Incentivise, Hartnell, Preferment, Lucia Valentina, and Green Moon.

Historical Profiling (last 12 years)

  • 2nd up (1), 3rd up (6), 4th up (5)
  • 14/15-day break (7), 21-day break (5)
  • Barriers 2-9 (12)
  • 4yo (2), 5yo (2), 6yo (7), 7yo (1)
  • Gelding (6), Horse (2), Mare (4)
  • Mix of weights from 53.5kg to 57.5kg
  • Betfair SP Favourite (6), Betfair SP Under $13 (10)
  • Last Start 1600m (7), 1800m (1), 2000m (4)

Chris Waller has won 5 of the last 8, and run 2nd another 4 times.

SPEEDMAP

Goldman should lead on an average speed, with Bank Maur, Right You Are, West Wind Blows, Uncle Bryn and Romantic Warrior on pace.

Berkeley Square, El Patroness and Smokin Romans map to get nice runs behind the speed.

El Bodegon, Osipenko, Francesco Guardi & Duke De Sessa back of midfield.

Soulcombe, Gold Trip, Emissary, Spanish Mission and Lunar Flare out the back.

TURNBULL STAKES | RUNNER-BY-RUNNER ANALYSIS

Romantic Warrior – Hong Kong superstar with 10 wins and 3 seconds from 14 starts. J Mac has ridden him 3 times for 3 wins, the past two at G1 level over this distance. On ability and ratings would win this, but there has been a query over how well the horse has travelled, settled in and eaten since he arrived, and he carries 59kg whilst no horse has won this race the past 12 years above 57.5kg.

Gold Trip – Outstanding closing sectionals first up with a big weight suggest he is going very well. However 2nd up, big weight, wide draw and flat second up run last prep are all negatives.

Francesco Guardi – Ticks a lot of historical boxes. 3rd up off a 21 day break, 6yo drawn single digits under 57.5kg and trained by Chris Waller. Only 3.5L off them in the Makybe Diva Stakes last start which is the strongest Aus form race going into this. Has to be in the mix on the profiling.

West Wind Blows – 4yo gelding trained by Simon Crisford. Has raced in the UK & France. 12 starts for 5 wins (between 2000m-2227m) and 5 placings. Form this prep has been exceptional. Won over 2000m at Longchamp at G3 level by 1.8L. Then 2nd at Ascot over 2414m at G2 level in the Hardwicke Stakes to Pyledriver, beating home Changingoftheguard and last year’s Melbourne Cup favourite Deauville Legend. Ran 3rd in the G1 Coral Eclipse at Sandown carrying topweight to topliner Paddington, beating home Queen Elizabeth winner Dubai Honour. Ran 2nd last start beaten a nose again with the top weight. Jamie Spencer does not have a good record here which is the negative.

Osipenko – Got back and finished home strongly for 5th beaten 1.4L in the Winx Stakes first up, then hit the line again for 7th in the G1 Memsie Stakes running the 8th quickest last 600m of the day. Was strong running 3rd in the Makybe Diva Stakes last start which is the strongest Aus form for this. Had an excellent prep as a 3yo winning at G2 and G3 level, and close up in two G1 races despite an interrupted campaign. Has been set for this.

Uncle Bryn – Bolted in to win the Naturalism last start and taking that on face value could surprise.

Soulcombe – Has been excellent in both runs this prep. Being set for the Cups but certainly capable of giving this a shake.

Duke De Sessa – Was heavily backed in the Doncaster last prep and only beaten 3.5L. Was ok first up in the Memsie. Getting up to better distance range now. Only second up so may need the run but can surprise.

Right You Are – Consistent type who was only 2L from them in the Underwood. Place chance.

DEAN EVAN’S TOP 4 SELECTIONS

7 – Osipenko
5 – West Wind Blows
4 – Francesco Guardi
11 – Soulcombe
1 – Romantic Warrior

TURNBULL STAKES | BETTING STRATEGY

BACK: #7 Osipenko (WIN) for 1 unit

BACK: #5 West Wind Blows (WIN) for 0.8 units

BACK: #4 Francesco Guardi (WIN) for 0.5 units

BACK: #11 Soulcombe (WIN) for 0.3 units

BACK: #8 Uncle Bryn (WIN) for 0.2 units

BACK: #12 Duke De Sessa (WIN) for 0.2 units

RESULTS

Units Outlayed: $436.40

Units Returned: $466.80

Profit On Turnover: 7.0%

G1 Big Priced Winners (Betfair SP Price)

2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.63

2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar $32.60

2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment $28.26

2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier $23

2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run $19.50

2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar $18.95

2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone $15.50

2022 Australasian Oaks: Glint Of Hope $13.55

2023 TJ Smith Stakes: I Wish I Win $12.80

2023 Lightning Stakes: Coolangatta $12.69

2020 Metropolitan Handicap: Mirage Dancer $11.18

2022 Surround Stakes: Hinged $11.00

2020 Manikato Stakes: Hey Doc $10.32

2023 Blue Diamond Stakes: Little Brose $10.24

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