FEATURE PREVIEWS: TJ SMITH STAKES

Group 1 | WFA | $3,000,000 | Rail: True | Track Conditions: Good 4

After three weeks at Rosehill we are back at Randwick for Day 1 of The Championships. One of the great meetings. Rail in the True and the weather looks absolutely perfect.

The TJ Smith Stakes, one of the premier sprinting races in the country and with a $3M prize pool, it’s easy to understand why. This race has been won by champions, including Nature Strip and Chautauqua who both won the race on three consecutive occasions. The mighty mare Black Caviar won the race twice, in 2011 and 2013.

Historical Profiling (last 12 years)

• 1^st/2^nd up (1/44), 3^rd up (7/58), 4^th up (4/23), 5^th up+ (0/14)
• 7-day break (1/7), 14-day break (1/51), 21-23-day break (4/28), 28-35 day break (6/28), 40+ day break (0/16)
• Leader/2nd (4), Settled 3rd-6th (3), Settled 9^th-15^th (5)
• Barrier 1-4 (5/48), Barrier 8-12 (7/46)
• 3yo (1/22), 4yo (3/35), 5yo (2/33), 6yo (5/27), 7yo+ (1/22)
• Geldings (9/83), Colts (1/13), Fillies (0/8), Mares (1/20), Entires (1/15)
• Tab Number 1-3 (9/36)
• Last Start Distance 1500-1600 (2/7), 1300-1400 (0/12), 1200 (6/55), 1100 (1/49), 1000 (3/16)
• Gear Change (0/12)
• James Mcdonald (3/9), Tommy Berry (3/9)
• Chris Waller (3/6), Hawkes (3/8)
• Favourite Last Start No (5/144), Yes (7/25)
• Finishing Position Last Start 1-3 (11/65), 4-5 (1/26), 6+ (0/48)
• Finishing Position Second Last Start 1-4 (11/89), 5+ (1/50)
• Last Start Finishing Position 2L+ win (3/6), Under 2L loss (8/81), 3L+ loss (1/52)
• Last Start Track Flemington (5/32), Randwick (4/21), Rosehill (2/61), Moonee Valley (1/17)
• • Average Prizemoney Index (API) $9-$60K (1/72), $70K-$100K (6/48), $200K+ (5/19)
  • Official Handicap Rank 1 (5/12), 2-3 (4/24), 4-9 (3/69), 10+ (0.34)
  • Official Handicap 80-90 (0/9), 100 (2/63), 110+ (10/67)

  If we combine analysis of the TJ Smith G1 1200m at Randwick with the Everest which is also a major 1200m race at Randwick in the Spring, from the last 12 years (19 races), 12/95 have won 3rd up and 5/34 have won 4^th up. Only 2 horses have won 2^nd up. 1^st/2^nd up horses only 2 winners from 78 runners. No horses have won either race first up.

Chain of Lightning caused a blowout last year, with a $22.33 BSP, which was 2.5% better than the corporate average.

The year before was I Wish I Win getting it done at $12.80, with the post commission price smashing best tote by 28%. It was $25 to the better for a $10 outlay.

Nature Strip won the race as favourite three years in a row before that in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

OVERPASS looks the natural leader and there actually isn’t a huge amount of speed engaged outside of him for a race of this nature. MAGIC TIME will kick up and be handy from barrier 1. I AM ME and SWITZERLAND won’t be too far away.

Randwick isn’t an easy track to lead and win but #1 OVERPASS looks well suited here first up at 1200m. His fresh record is exceptional, only missing a top two finish once in 8 first-up runs which includes 4 wins. His trials have been good leading in and he looks a live winning chance. Still an underrated horse, despite winning close to $10M in prizemoney and 10 races.

#5 BRIASA was enormous in the Galaxy first up in what was one of the runs of the day, despite missing a place. He drew wide on a day you simply had to be fence in run. He had to go back to last, found the fence briefly and then stormed home, running the fastest final 600m (32.56) of the day. Outside barrier to a perfect barrier here. He can stalk #1 OVERPASS and prove highly competitive.

#7 JOLIESTAR is the other key winning chance. She can need things to go her way, and when they do she looks like the best horse in the country. That happened in the Newmarket last start where she won in dynamic fashion. She started favourite in an Everest and draws to get a perfect run. #6 SUNSHINE IN PARIS started $7 in that Everest (Joliestar $6). Can win but doesn’t map as well as those ahead of her in betting.

Wanted to find #2 JIMMYSTAR as we hold him in such high regard. His win in the Oakleigh Plate was outstanding and he lost no admirers in the William Reid the way the race was run and the way the track was playing. Just not sure he gets the fast speed and tempo to suit.

#10 KIMOCHI was brilliant fresh.

#5 BRIASA
#1 OVERPASS
#7 JOLIESTAR
#6 SUNSHINE IN PARIS